The Impact of Population Growth on CO2 Emissions: An Empirical

Analysis

Presented by

GÖKHAN ÜNLÜ

OUTLINEOUTLINE

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION ECONOMIC REASONS BEHIND CO2 ECONOMIC REASONS BEHIND CO2

EMISSIONSEMISSIONS ECONOMETRIC ANALYSISECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS POLICY IMPLICATIONSPOLICY IMPLICATIONS CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

The aim,importance and expected outcome The aim,importance and expected outcome of the studyof the study

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between population growth and carbon dioxide(CO2) The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between population growth and carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions in thousand metric tons and human impact on CO2. emissions in thousand metric tons and human impact on CO2.

Carbon dioxide is an essential gas in the earth and it is well known as a greenhouse gas due to global warming. Carbon dioxide is an essential gas in the earth and it is well known as a greenhouse gas due to global warming. Greenhouse gases hold the sun’s radiation in the atmosphere and regulates the temperature of the world Greenhouse gases hold the sun’s radiation in the atmosphere and regulates the temperature of the world

Global greenhouse gas emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase Global greenhouse gas emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70 percent between 1970 and 2004.of 70 percent between 1970 and 2004.

Atmospheric concentration of CO2 in 2005 exceeded by far the natural range over the last 650.000 years. Global Atmospheric concentration of CO2 in 2005 exceeded by far the natural range over the last 650.000 years. Global increases in CO2 are due to primarily to fosil fuel use.increases in CO2 are due to primarily to fosil fuel use.

Our world has been experiencing a rapid increase of CO2 emissions while underdeveloped countries are Our world has been experiencing a rapid increase of CO2 emissions while underdeveloped countries are becoming richer and increasing population size; however, rich countries are unable to reduce greenhouse gas becoming richer and increasing population size; however, rich countries are unable to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.emissions.

Increasing world population puts pressure on natural resources and increases the demand for energy in the forms Increasing world population puts pressure on natural resources and increases the demand for energy in the forms of transportation, of transportation, power, industry, deforestationpower, industry, deforestation

Expected finding of this study is to indicate a close and strong relationship between population growth and CO2 Expected finding of this study is to indicate a close and strong relationship between population growth and CO2 emissionsemissions

Economic Reasons Behind CO2Economic Reasons Behind CO2

Market failures examined in this study:Market failures examined in this study: Externality// This decision not only affects the Externality// This decision not only affects the

parents but also affects the society as a parents but also affects the society as a whole.whole.

Public good// clean nature and clean airPublic good// clean nature and clean air Sustainable development// future generations Sustainable development// future generations

vs rapid population growthvs rapid population growth

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSISECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

In the model eight countries from different continents have been In the model eight countries from different continents have been selected in order to evaluate the different locations around the world selected in order to evaluate the different locations around the world in terms of their economic activities(developed or developing), in terms of their economic activities(developed or developing), population growth patterns and energy consumption given a 25 year population growth patterns and energy consumption given a 25 year period (1980-2004) period (1980-2004)

From Americas; From Americas; USAUSA From Europe ; From Europe ; Turkey, SpainTurkey, Spain From Asia; From Asia; IndiaIndia, , From Africa; From Africa; SouthSouth AfricaAfrica, , Egypt, MoroccoEgypt, Morocco From Australia: From Australia: AustraliaAustralia

THE REGRESSION

lnCO2 = β1 + β2 lnpopulation + β3 ln gdp + β4 ln oil + ui

lnCO2:The percentage change in CO2 emissions in thousand metric tons lnpopulation: The percentage change in population lngdp: The percentage change in GDP lnoil: The percentage change in total oil consumption β1 : The intercept term of the model. β2 : The elasticity of population β3 : The elasticity of GDP β4 : The elasticity of oil consumption ui : Error term

ECONOMETRIC RESULTSECONOMETRIC RESULTSDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPING COUNTRIES

VariablesDependent Variable: C02 Emissions

Constant -1.24 (0.01)ln population 35.21* (1.90)ln gdp -30.03*** (-3.29)ln oil 26.30*** (4.71)R2(adjusted) 0.86F stat 52DW 1.81

MOROCCO

VariablesDependent Variable: C02 Emissions

Constant -15.1*** (-2.96) ln population 1.42*** (4.05)ln gdp 0.57* (1.80)ln oil 0.50 (1.48)R2(adjusted) 0.97F stat 356DW 1.21

TURKEY

VariablesDependent Variable: C02 Emissions

Constant -51.97*** (-6.75)ln population 3.99*** (-8.51)ln gdp -0.70*** (-3.45)ln oil 0.27 (1.34)R2(adjusted) 0.99F stat 236DW 1.49

INDIA

VariablesDependent Variable: C02 Emissions

Constant -7.39 (-1.43)ln population 1.23*** (3.87)ln gdp 0.03 (0.12)ln oil -0.37 (1.09)R2(adjusted) 0.87F stat 56DW 1.63

SOUTH AFRICA

VariablesDependent Variable: C02 Emissions

Constant -33.18*** (-3.04)ln population 3.01** (2.06)ln gdp -0.47 (-0.70)ln oil 0.41 (1.44)R2(adjusted) 0.96F stat 246DW 1.16

EGYPT

***p<0.01

**p<0.05

*p<0.10

ECONOMETRIC RESULTSECONOMETRIC RESULTSDEVELOPED COUNTRIESDEVELOPED COUNTRIES

VariablesDependent Variable: C02 Emissions

Constant -5.59 (-1.01)ln population 0.75 (1.31)ln gdp -0.07 (-0.37)ln oil 0.88*** (6.58)R2(adjusted) 0.97F stat 341DW 1.56

USA

VariablesDependent Variable: C02 Emissions

Constant -17.78* (-1.81)ln population 1.57** (2.27)ln gdp -0.11 (-0.83)ln oil 0.79*** (7.39)R2(adjusted) 0.95F stat 180DW 1.77

SPAIN

VariablesDependent Variable: C02 Emissions

Constant -0.03 (-0.04)ln population 1.48* (1.75)ln gdp -0.89*** (-3.34)ln oil 1.72*** (5.04))R2(adjusted) 0.95F stat 181DW 1.92

AUSTRALIA

***p<0.01

**p<0.05

*p<0.10

POLICY IMPLICATIONSPOLICY IMPLICATIONS The United States causing 25 percent of the world’s CO2 emissions, The United States causing 25 percent of the world’s CO2 emissions,

refuses to ratify the Kyoto protocol to reduce greenhouse gases, refuses to ratify the Kyoto protocol to reduce greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide, , which forces industrialised nations to decline mainly carbon dioxide, , which forces industrialised nations to decline emissions to 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2012.emissions to 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2012.

A carbon price is a way of recognising the true cost of emitting. It is A carbon price is a way of recognising the true cost of emitting. It is the best possible way of allocating that cost because it allows the best possible way of allocating that cost because it allows governments to set a practical limit to carbon outputgovernments to set a practical limit to carbon output and and allows the allows the market mechanism to sort out the best way to allocate that limitemarket mechanism to sort out the best way to allocate that limited rightd right

In a study of Frank Jöst and Martin Quaas, they examine the external In a study of Frank Jöst and Martin Quaas, they examine the external effects of parents’ decision on number newly born children on effects of parents’ decision on number newly born children on emissions and they discuss a Pigouvian tax on emissions and taxes emissions and they discuss a Pigouvian tax on emissions and taxes on population.on population.

POLICY IMPLICATIONSPOLICY IMPLICATIONS Renewable energy sources such as hydropower, solar, wind and Renewable energy sources such as hydropower, solar, wind and

bionergy should be preferred instead of fosil fuels bionergy should be preferred instead of fosil fuels

We should increase the use of fuel efficient vehicles and prefer rail We should increase the use of fuel efficient vehicles and prefer rail and public transport system to road transport. For close distances and public transport system to road transport. For close distances we can try cycling and walking. In buildings efficient lighting, solar we can try cycling and walking. In buildings efficient lighting, solar heating and cooling must be maintained.heating and cooling must be maintained.

What human can do in this process is changing our lifestyle and What human can do in this process is changing our lifestyle and

behaviours, at least starting from using public transportbehaviours, at least starting from using public transport. .

PROJECTION OF POPULATION GROWTH

(Million)

Can you ignore the human influence?...

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS We carried out an analysis to investigate the relationship We carried out an analysis to investigate the relationship

between CO2 emissions and population growth by between CO2 emissions and population growth by adding determinants of gross domestic product and oil adding determinants of gross domestic product and oil consumption into the model. We used the data of eight consumption into the model. We used the data of eight countries which are separated with respect to their countries which are separated with respect to their economic development levels during the period 1980-economic development levels during the period 1980-2004. 2004.

We conclude that the population coefficients of We conclude that the population coefficients of developed countries are greater than the coefficients of developed countries are greater than the coefficients of developing countries. In other words, the impact of developing countries. In other words, the impact of population growth on CO2 emissions in developing population growth on CO2 emissions in developing countries are much higher than the developed countries countries are much higher than the developed countries according to the findings of this studyaccording to the findings of this study