the impact of wargaming on history · 2018-08-31 · wargaming - the gulf war us iraqi - soviet...
TRANSCRIPT
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The History of Wargaming
Matthew B. Caffrey Jr.17 July 2018
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How Do We Test Hypotheses?
Set Up Experiments?
Find Natural Experiments
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Innovation CycleHistory
Theory
Doctrine
Plan
Execution
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In the Beginning
It all started with language - and toys
The Royal Toys
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In the Beginning
EgyptEgypt EgyptRome EgyptChina EgyptIndia
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On The Brink Fredrick‘s use of maps Clerk models naval
combat Abstract games grow
less abstract:1664 Koinigspiel1780 Kriegschach1797 New Kriegspiel
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The Long HairedRevolutionary
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Napoleon’s Advantages
Technology*
Genius
Meritocracy
Numbers
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The Origins of Modern Wargaming
1811 - Herr von Reisswitz - a base of sand1824 - Lt Reisswitz - the expanding circle
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- Offsite- Brain Storming- Wargame- Exercise- Deliberate Planning
Moltke’s Process
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World Wide Wargaming
Austro-Hungarian
England
Italy
France
Russia
Secondary diffusion
1820 / 1875 / 1905
1874 / 1889
1873
1872 / 1883
1866
Japan, Turkey, Latin Am.
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Coming to America
1883 - Major (later Col) Livermore
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Coming to America
1886 - US Naval War College
1883 - Major Livermore
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Coming to America
1890s - US Army Command andGeneral Staff College
1886 - US Naval War College
1883 - Major Livermore
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Coming to America
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InnovationEgyptMorale
Factors EgyptFreeWar-
gaming
Innovation & Decline in Germany
Innovation
Decline
EgyptMoraleFactors Egypt
FreeWar-
gaming
EgyptFaceTimeEgypt
CmdInflu-ence
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Birth of Modern Civilian WargamingThe Reserve Connection
1873- Wilkinson - one man’s impact
1890s Delbrück - first duty of the new rulers
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Birth of Modern Civilian WargamingThe Popularizers
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Birth of Modern Civilian WargamingThe Popularizes
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Wargaming & the Great War
Pre-war Wargaming 1905 The wargames that shaped the world 1910s Moltke the Younger - the return of
rigor 1914 The wg that didn’t change history
Wargaming & the Great War The Peace offensive –
• German• UK
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Germany – Strategic Innovation > “Blood & Mud”
- Operational Innovation > Blitzkrieg > Wolf Packs
Inter War Wargaming
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Innovation CycleHistory
Theory
Doctrine
Plan
Execution
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Innovation CycleWith Wargamig
History
Theory
Doctrine
Plan
Wargame
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Germany – Strat Innovation > “Blood & Soil”- Ops Innovation > Blitzkrieg
US
Germany – Strat Innovation > “Blood & Soil”- Ops Innovation > Blitzkrieg
US
UK - Negative example French – Innovation vs training – Playing Red USSR - Victory through defeat
Inter War Wargaming
Navy PME: Teach howto learn, cycle of WGsUSMC: Accelerate RMA
Army: Just in Time
Air Corps: A false dawn
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World War II
GermanyMannstein makes his case
Barbarossa - an accurate mistake
Victory at Normandy, twice
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World War II
Japan The Total War Research Institute
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World War II
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World War II
Both attacks on Pearl Harbor
JapanThe Total War Research Institute
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World War II
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World War II
Both battles of Midway
Why did Japan keep on fighting
Japan The Total War Research InstituteBoth attacks on Pearl Harbor
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World War II
UKBoth extremes
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World War II
UKBoth extremes
USUS Army Ground Forces – shortage US Army Air Forces - sorely missedUSMC “eerie” success, then..Navy success - but ...
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World War II
The war with Japan had been [enacted] in the game roomhere by so many people in so many different ways that nothing that happened during the war was a surprise,– absolutely nothing except the Kamikaze…”.
Fleet Admiral Chester Nimitz
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Eclipse
Decline in thestudy of war
at the war colleges
Rise ofdeterrence &
the efficient DoD
Korea seen asan aberration
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The onset of the Cold War
Assumed credibility of computers
Prestige of Operations Research
Reaction against the management mindset of Vietnam
Why was Wargaming Reborn?
The obsolescence of war had been greatlyexaggerated
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1950s Analysis models
US Naval - “NEWS” from the Naval War ColUSMC - Landing Force Wargame seriesArmy - “Aggressors,” at least a startAir Force - RAND & wargaming
International Soviet historical rigor UK OR
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Wargaming - The Korean War
US
North Vietnam- Soviet, initial planning?- China, road not taken
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1960s Pentagon Games
US Joint - Wargaming at the heartNaval - NWC goes to “WARS”Army - Making the case for Air MobileAir Force – Skybolt, gains PME WG
International - UK & Canadian OR
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Wargaming - The Vietnam War
US Wargame predicted
stalemate -- NOTcontinued to conflict resolution Limited in theater use Wargame predicted victory?
North Vietnam- Soviet method of wargaming- Partial explanation of
lack of radio use,style offighting
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US Naval - Top Gun, to CRP, to Global
Army - Tech solution to a people problem?
Air Force - Red Flag!
1970s Education and Training
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ServicesNaval - The golden age of GlobalArmy - From III Corps to NTCAir Force - Air Force Wargaming CenterUSMC – The right wargame for each need
JointCENTCOM takes the leadDARPA’s modest innovation
1980s O-Plan Development
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Wargaming - The Gulf War
US
Iraqi- Soviet method for ground forces
- a reason for the halt?- US software for air
forces - a reasonthey did notfight?
Exercise in the Desert - Patriots accelerated Internal Look 90 - a reason we moved so fast? Wargamers at war - the road not taken Wargames in the field The US training edge
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ServicesNaval – Global – transformation eventArmy – Initiates Title 10 wargameAir Force – Initiates Title 10 wargameUSMC – Starts then stops Title 10 WG
JointService Wargames “talk” to each otherFewer, more Joint “engines” JSIMS, JWARS
1990s US - Jointness
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1990s Globally - “Expanded” Use
Congressional LiaisonProcurement DecisionsTactics Development Force TradeoffsGrowing use of virtual wargamingInternational Study US
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DoD Wargaming at a Crossroads
More money going to wargaming
Relatively less
expensive
No environ-mental impact
Secure from
“overhead” observation
Exploits more
computing power for
less money
Credibility with
Congress
Credibility with
Congress
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DoD Wargaming at a Crossroads
More money going to wargaming
More doubts than any time since the late 40s- High Desert Storm Casualty Predictions- RAND’s Base of Sand Paper- HQ USAF concerns- Irrelevance in armed conflict with Serbia- “Competition” from commercial wargames
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DOD / Commercial War Games 1950 - 1990
Analysis Training PME Prof Dev Recreation
[Bottom Up]Operational
ResearchModels
History BasedWargames
[Top Down]
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The Rise of Commercial Wargaming
More Accessible Wargames- 1950s Charles Roberts- 1960s Eric Dott & Avalon Hill- 1970s James Dunnigan & the S&T Staff +- 1980s Chris Crawford & Gary Grigsby- 1990s 25 Billion dollar global industry- 2000s Computer Gaming passes Hollywood
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The Rise of Commercial Wargaming
More People Playing Wargames- 1950s Thousands- 1960s Tens of Thousands- 1970s Hundreds of Thousands- 1980s Millions- 1990s Tens of Millions- 2000s Billions
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Commercial/DOD Integration
Analysis Training PME Prof Dev Recreation
[Bottom Up]Operational Reasearch Models
History Based Wargames[Top Down]
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Post 9/11
Old bothersome problems become major needs
OEF too fast to wargame
OIF“This is not the enemy we wargamedagainst.” Lt Gen Wallace, V Corps CC
How do you wargame Phase IV?
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Post 9/11
• Navy: • The death and rebirth of Global• “Groups”
• Army: Pause in Futures• USAF: AFWI to LeMay Center Wargaming
Institute• USMC: Sustaining the capability• COCOMs: Millennial Challenge
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Post 9/11
• International:• Connections UK, Australia, NL• China’s wargame Institute
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Post Memos
The return of conventional threats Secretary of Defense – Innovation, wargaming Deputy Secretary – reverse “atrophy”
2 Memos 2 Four Star Summits Incentive money Repository Support of practitioners
International: Increased NATO interest
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The Art of Wargaming, Peter Perla, 1990http//www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicle
s/cc/caffrey.html On Wargaming, Matt Caffrey, 2018
(any day now)
To Learn More
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Material for the 2nd Edition