the instructor for the course, brandon theiss, is a senior...
TRANSCRIPT
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The instructor for the course, Brandon Theiss, is a Senior Member of ASQ and
a Graduate student at Rutgers University. Currently there is not a course
offered in the undergraduate Industrial and Systems Engineering Program at
Rutgers. This course provided an opportunity for students to not only be
exposed to the material but also to earn a nationally recognized certification in
the tools techniques and methods of Six Sigma. It represented a first of its kind
partnership between the student chapter of the IIE and ASQ Princeton section.
Part of the proceeds for the course were used to fund the IIE trip to their
national conference in Orlando.
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A 78% Score is required for passing.
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Gemba is a Japanese term meaning "the real place“ popularized in Lean
Manufacturing by Imai in Gemba Kaizen
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The cost of the course for students included the textbook and ASQ student
membership
The professional rate only included the text.
The ASQ Certified Six Sigma Green Belt Requires 3 or more years of work
experience in one of more areas of the Body of Knowledge. There was a very
long and at times heated exchange with the ASQ certification committee about
what constitutes work experience. A compromise was ultimately reached
however there were still a large number of qualified students that were denied
the right to sit for the exam
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This is a unique pedagogical approach and from philosophically is quite
“meta”. The objective under examination is in fact the actor performing the
examination.
The most brilliant of teacher can write the most profound equation on a
chalkboard, and the most diligent of students can take pristine notes. However
learning only occurs when the student is able to apply the material. Johann
Wolfgang von Goethe was correct when he said “Knowing is not enough; we
must apply.”
Given the diversity of the composition of the students in terms of education, life experience, income and industry finding a common task in which to apply the LSS would have been impossible. The only true commonality between the group was that they were all humans and wanted to earn their greenbelt. We were able to leverage this fact in developing the instructional roadmap for course.
Also the utilization of Shewhart Control Charts which are used to differentiate between common cause and special cause variation, is fairly novel in academic settings.
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Students were notified via email prior to the first night of the course that an
exam would be administered on the first night.
This provided both a baseline for the future improvement as well as showing
students directly the level of mastery they would need to obtain to become
certified.
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A simple histogram of the exam results from the Monday section with a normal
distribution fit. It does appear to be normal but has a very large standard
deviation 11.8%
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The probability plot indicates that there is insufficient data to reject the null
hypothesis that the data is normally distributed. This is indicated by the P value
which indicates the probability that the difference between the measured data
and the model occurred by pure chance. The null hypothesis of normality
would have been rejected if the value had been less than alpha (5%)
representing a 95% confidence level.
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It is technically debatable if the test scores are continuous or discrete variable
and if a I chart is appropriate. However the point is to introduce students to
control charts and an Individuals chart.
Since no point lies about the Upper or Lower Control Limit, the process is in a
state of “statistical control”. However common sense shows that this is
nonsensical as the range of the limits is between 17% and 95%. This was
caused by the large standard deviation observed.
This was used as an opportunity to discuss the difference between statistical
significance and actual significance. This reinforces the concept that the math
does not know where the numbers came from and can at best direct teams to
derive the true underlying meaning.
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Again there is a technical point if the test scores are discrete or continuous.
The above Process Capability study requires that the data be considered
continuous.
Process capability is essentially the probability of producing a product that will
meet your customers specification. In this case the passing score (78%) sets
that limit. As you can see in the above chart for every 1,000,000 students from
the Monday population that took the pre-test exam ~970,000 students will fail.
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Everyone has taken a test where the test taker believes there was a question
that either had the wrong answer or was too difficult. By using a NP (or P)
control chart, one can easily distinguish if a question was statistically
significantly too difficult above the UCL or too easy below the LCL
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There were several students who handed in their exams very quickly. We
wanted to see if the amount of time a student spent on the exam effected their
scores. And for the Monday data set it appears it did.
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A histogram of the Tuesday data set
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Again the data is normal as indicated by a P value greater than 5%. It is
however notable in the above plot that there is a clear outlier.
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Again we can see that there is clearly an outlier in the data set.
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The Tuesday process is very similar in its inability to produce a unit meeting
customers expectations and again will generate ~970,000 failures for every
million students from the population that take the exam
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In the above graph it does appear that there were questions that a statistically
significant number of students got wrong.
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Interestingly, the order in which a student turned in their exam did not have an
effect on the Tuesday data set.
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Combined Histogram of the results
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Both distributions look somewhat similar.
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The above shows a box plot comparing the two classes. The median appears
to be higher in the Tuesday class. However is the difference significant?
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An ANOVA analysis was performed which results in a very high p value which
means that there is not a statistically significant difference between the two
population means.
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A Pareto Chart of the topic involved for each of the Out of Control Data points
from the combined P Chart
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The course met once per week over an 11 week period from 6:30 to 9:30PM.
There were two sessions per week and students were free to attend either the
Monday or Tuesday class based upon which ever was more convenient for
their schedule
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Nominal Group -> when individuals over power a group
Multi-Voting -> Reduce a large list of items to a workable number quickly
Affinity Diagram -> Group solutions
Force Field Analysis -> Overcome Resistance to Change
Tree Diagram -> Breaks complex into simple
Cause- Effect Diagram -> identify root causes
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Most Common Model of group Development was proposed by Bruce Tuckman
in 1965.
In order for the team to grow, to face up to challenges, to tackle problems, to
find solutions, to plan work, and to deliver results. They must go through the
cycle
Forming
Team members getting to know each other
Trying to please each other
May tend to agree too much on initial discussion topics
Not much work accomplished
Members orientation on the team goals
Group is going through “honeymoon period”
Storming
Voice their idea
Understand project scope and responsibilities
Ideas and understanding cause conflict
Not much work gets accomplished
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Disagreement slows down the team
Norming
Resolve own conflicts
Come to mutually agreed plan
Some work gets done
Start to trust each other
Performing
Large amount of work gets done
Synergy realized
Competent and autonomous decisions are made
Adjourning
Team is disbanded, restructured or project re-scoped.
Regression to Forming stage
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Control Charts are used to differentiate between common cause (normal) and
special cause (abnormal) variation.
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There does not appear to be a large change between the Pre Test and the Mid
Term
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A T-Test indicates that there is significant improvement, as indicated by the
one tail P value.
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ANOVA on the other hand indicates that there is not a difference between the
two means.
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Displays a histogram of the changes in scores, about 40% of the students
went down and 60% increased their score.
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This is a somewhat novel adaptation of a C chart that allows for negative
values. However there appear to be students that did much better and much
worse than the other students.
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Looking at a Paired-T test there was absolutely a statistically significant
improvement.
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Why did the test scores not improve more dramatically? Well the exams cover
all of the material in the CSSGB BoK the course was only half complete. When
we looked at the material covered up to the midterm on both the pre-test and
the mid term the above pie charts show the percentage of the covered material
on each exam.
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Not surprisingly students performed better on the material that was covered as
compared to the material that was not covered.
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However the students also scored better on that same material on the pre test.
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So was there actual improvement?
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The change in the means indicates a ~8% improvement. However is that
statistically significant?
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ANOVA does indicates that there is a difference in the means. The students
did in fact learn the material that was covered.
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There was a small increase in the means ~2% is that significant?
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No. There is not a statistically significant difference between the pre-test and
mid-term scores on the material that was not covered. As a result it would
indicate that the exams were roughly the same difficulty.
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The process is still incapable of generating a passing score on the test.
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Minitab is the de facto industry standard for statistical process control.
Unfortunately the undergraduate program at Rutgers does not include any
training in the software suite. It is fairly intuitive however students needed
additional instruction.
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Unfortunately, as this courses primary purpose was to act preparation for the
Greenbelt Exam a larger focus could not placed on this material. However in
an industrial setting most projects fail in the control phase. Regression to the
mean is the natural trend. Anyone that has ever tried to lose weight or quit
smoking knows that the trouble is always in sustaining the improvement.
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Feedback in any system is critically important. With a course that only meets
once per week, having students wait a week would be to long. By providing
students immediate feedback they were able to best utilize their time to study
as well as not mis-learn material thinking that they had been correct on a
question when in fact they were not.
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The above histogram does not quite look normal and has a very large
standard deviation 14%.
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A dot plot again shows a strange pattern.
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The distribution is in fact bimodal. Unfortunately due to ASQ’s interpretation of
the meaning of work, a large number of qualified application were unable to sit
for the actual Greenbelt exam and became disenchanted with the course and
represent the lower distribution. This assumption was supported by a post hoc
online survey.
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However the test scores did appear to approve (even with the lower
distribution)
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And the improvement was very significant as indicated P value of 4.91 x 10^-
13
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On average the students improved 19.4% only a few students scores
decreased,
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The Paired T Test Results also confirm that the students test scores improved!
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A P Chart was again used to detect difficult questions.
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A Pareto Chart above shows the topics that generated that special cause
variation in the prior P chart.
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The initial process capability was quite poor, producing defects ~970,000
failures per 1,000,0000
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The final process capability though still not best in class, is much better,
producing 475,000 failures per million (the observed is used since the data
was already proven to be non normal as it is bimodal)
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Students were able to pass the June 2nd exam at a rate (76%) that was greater
than the national average of 68%. However the increase was not statistically
significant. (P value greater than .05), however it does indicate that there is an
80% change that the results are in fact better.
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A total of 37 students attempted to take the test
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*Actual data has not yet been released for the national average yet
As Confucius says “I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.”
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