the irrational marketer - unlearning marketing

The Irrational Marketer(Un)learning marketing

“Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick

themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened.”

~ Winston Churchill

Empirical - Where possible, I develop hypotheses and perform tests before mak-

ing a decision; 17%Data-driven - I collect and analyse data as much as possible before making a

decision; 42%

Collaborative - I seek to co-laborate on decisions as much as possible; 32%

Intuitive - I primarily use my intuition in making deci-

sions; 10%

Q: Which of the following best describes your personal approach to making significant man-

agement decisions?

Take the course of action sug-gested by the

data

Collect more data Reanalyse the data

Ignore the data0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Q: When taking a decision, if the available data contradicted your gut feeling, what would you do?

We talk about the irrational consumer.

But what about the irrational marketer?

2… 4… 6… 8…What rule governs the pattern?

Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful but with very little interest in people or in the world of reality.

A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail.

Rules. Really?

Rule #1Emotion trumps rationality…

…stop worrying about persuading people

Rational messages deliver short term responses

Rational messaging Combined approach Emotional priming0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Very

larg

e di

rect

effe

ct

Source: Binet & Field 2013

Rational messaging Combined approach Emotional priming0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Very

larg

e pr

ofit

effe

cts


But emotions are more profitable

1 year 2 years 3+ years0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Emotional campaignsRational campaignsPr

ofit

effe

ct


Especially over the long term

Rule #2Aim for fame…

…stop trying to differentiate your brand

Meaningful differentiationMeaningless distinc-

tionSource: Byron Sharp

Smaller salience effect Large salience effect V large salience effect0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Very

larg

e pr

ofit

effe

cts


Mental availability is crucial

Fame campaigns Other campaigns0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Ann

ualis

ed E

SOV

effic

ienc

yFame strategies are extremely efficient


£290 millionadditional revenue

Source: Field & Pringle, 2009

Rule #3Creativity only just trumps budget…

…the ‘no media budget’ approach

is a myth

Creatively awarded Not creatively awarded0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Bud

get e

ffici

ency

met

ric

Creativity is the most important factor

Source: The Long and Short of It, IPA

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Share of market

Shar

e of

voi

ce

SOV > SOM: brands tend to grow

SOV < SOM: brands tend to shrink


Budget is almost as important as creative

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%0123456789

10

Activation share of budget

Num

ber o

f ver

y la

rge

effe

cts

Optimum: 60:40 split


…and budget allocation matters as well

Rule #4More new customers = better loyalty… …invest less in

squeezing more from your customers

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Target ex-isting cus-

tomers

Target new customers

Target whole market

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0 ESOV efficiencyNo. of business effects

Loyalty strategies underperform


Double jeopardy is an empirical law in marketing where, with few exceptions, the lower market share brands in a market have both far fewer buyers in a time period and also lower brand loyalty.

Brands Market share Absolute penetration

Relative penetration

Share of category

requirements

Avg. purchases of

brandColgate 22 34 40 38 3.6Macleans 11 22 26 32 3.2Crest 10 22 26 31 3.1Aquafresh 9 20 24 30 3.1Sensodyne 6 11 13 29 3Mentadent 5 11 13 28 2.9Signal 4 11 13 28 2.9Gibbs 4 11 13 28 2.9Sainsbury 4 8 10 28 2.9Superdrug 3 5 6 27Boots 2 6 7 27Ultrabrite 2 6 7 27Tesco 2 4 5 27Euthymol 1 2 2 26Zendium 0.1 0.2 0.2 26

The double jeopardy rule

Source: Byron Sharp

Brands Market share Absolute penetration

Relative penetration

Share of category

requirements

Avg. purchases of

brandColgate 22 34 40 38 3.6Macleans 11 22 26 32 3.2Crest 10 22 26 31 3.1Aquafresh 9 20 24 30 3.1Sensodyne 6 11 13 29 3Mentadent 5 11 13 28 2.9Signal 4 11 13 28 2.9Gibbs 4 11 13 28 2.9Sainsbury 4 8 10 28 2.9Superdrug 3 5 6 27 2.8Boots 2 6 7 27 2.8Ultrabrite 2 6 7 27 2.8Tesco 2 4 5 27 2.8Euthymol 1 2 2 26 2.8Zendium 0.1 0.2 0.2 26 2.7

The double jeopardy rule

Source: Byron Sharp

BRAND SIZE =Brand penetration

Rule #5Your brand customers are the same as category buyers…

…stop over-tightening your

targeting

Male Female

All chocolate 49% 51%

Yorkie 53% 47%

Source: Byron Sharp, 2015

Study #1All brands in 13 industries; 100 attitudinal variables

Study #2Top 10 brands, 30 other industries; 200 attitudinal variables

Source: Kennedy, Long and Ehrenberg. Data: TGI

“Overall, the individual brands percentage profiles deviated from each other by an average of 2 or 3 percentage points, which as the authors note “is… in effect zero”

Only around 8% of the individual deviations were more than 5 percentage points, and even these larger deviations averaged at only about 9.

Just 2% of individual deviations were 10 points or more.”

Source: Kennedy, Long and Ehrenberg. Data: TGI

Emotion trumps rationality……stop worrying about persuading people

Aim for fame……stop trying to differentiate your brand

Creativity trumps budget, just……the ‘no media budget’ approach is a myth

More new customers = better loyalty……invest less in squeezing more from your customers

Your brand customers are the same as category buyers……stop tightening your targeting

It’s not complicatedIt’s just

hard

thanksKnow some more #stumblingblocks?

Nick BarthramPrincipal Planner@plan_nerd

the irrational marketer - unlearning marketing

Marketing