the japanese power system and the future after...

The Japanese Power System and the future after Fukushima

Research Team for Advanced Management of Power Supply & Demand and Socio‐economic Research Center

Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry

Japan ‐ Norway Energy Science Week 2015, Tokyo

May 27, 2015

Doctor Yutaka Nagata

2015 1

2

ContentsCurrent Status of Electricity Supply in Japan

Recent Political Movement

Role of Demand Response for Smarter Energy Systems in Japan after Fukushima

Conclusions

2015

3




Conclusions

2015

Current Electricity Supply System in Japan

42015

Wholesale Power Exchange Market (JEPX)

Self Generators

Self Consumption

Special Electric Utilities

Customers in

Designated Service Districts

Power Producer

and Supplier(PPSs)

Wholesale Electricity Utilities (J‐Power, etc.) and Wholesale Suppliers (IPPs, etc.)

Power Plants

General Electricity UtilitiesTransmission/Distribution Network

Non‐eligible Users(Households, 34%)

Eligible Users(about 66% of total kWh)

PPSs

ESCJ Supervision

Generation Wholesale

Network

Sales

Users

Sale and purchase

Sale Wheeling

Sale

Sale

Supply Supply Supply

Supply

ESCJ: Electric Power System Council of Japan OCCTO from 2015

Status of Nuclear Power Plants in JapanThere are 48 units and all of them are in a state of temporary shutdown.Among them, old and small 5 units (X sighed) were recently abolished.24 units are under safety review by the Nuclear Regulation Authority and 5 units were approved as they met new safety standards.

Source: Federation of Electric Power Companies

52015

X

X

XXX

Units investigation approved

Units under investigation

Total 19.5GW

Total 4.4GW

Electric Utilities and Transmission Lines

Ten privately‐owned vertically integrated utilities (so called general electric utilities, GEUs) serves residential customers under regulation (retail market for C&I customers has been liberalized).

There is a difference in frequencies between the east (50Hz) and the west (60 Hz) and the interconnection capacity with FC is limited.Total capacity of FC: 1.2GW 2.1GW in 2020

62015

So‐called “Longitudinal Transmission System”

Rapid Introduction of PV by FIT Scheme and Related Problems

Rapid introduction of PV has been continuing after the start of FIT scheme on July 2012. It has already brought various problems on electricity supply system in some local areas in Japan.

7

FIT

5% per year

9% per year

32% per year

Hydro

Biomass

PV

Installed Capacity of Renewable Power

Net metering purchase

2015

Wind

Deficit capability of frequency controlby rapid fluctuation of output

Requirement of suppression by excess output than demand for supply (actual demand minus output of base‐load power plants and spinning reserve)

Voltage deviation of distribution linefrom control target by the reverse flow from roof‐top PV

Deficit transmission capacity in the areas of small electricity demand

Related Problems

GW

Year

End of Dec. 2014: Approved PV 70.8 GWInstalled PV 20.3 GW

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Installation Schedule of Smart Meter for Low‐Voltage Customers in Japan

13

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Hokkaido TohokuTokyo ChubuHokuriku KansaiChugoku ShikokuKyushu Okinawa

Pene

tration Ra

te

Year

Smart meter will be fully equipped by 2024 in Japan and be installed most rapidly in Tokyo area (TEPCO) by 2020. Load data will be provided for all retail suppliers.

2015

9




Conclusions

2015

Policy Discussion in Japan

Strategic Energy Plan

Energy Efficiency and Conservation Subcommittee

New and Renewable Energy Subcommittee

Nuclear Energy Subcommittee

Experts’ Committee on Electricity System Reform

Working Group on System Design concerning

Electricity System Reform

Approved by the Cabinet in April 2014

Approved by the Cabinet in April 2013

Electricity System Reform

Strategic Energy Plan (Basic Energy Policy)

102015

Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy

Long‐term Energy Outlook

Energy‐origin CO2 Target

Regulation of Electricity Industry

Energy‐origin CO2occupies about 88% of total GHG emission.

Principles for the Energy Policyafter Fukushima

Safety

Energy SecurityEconomic Efficiency Environment

Establishing “Multilayered and Diversified Flexible Energy Supply‐Demand Structure”

“3E+S” –the basic viewpoint of the energy policy

92015

New Target of Power Generation Mix, Primary Energy and CO2 emission in 2030

122015

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

Before Saving

After Saving

Coal 26%

LNG 27%

Nuclear 22‐20%

Renewable22‐24%

Oil 3%

Coal 22%

LNG 22%

Nuclear 18‐17%

Renewable19‐20%

Oil 2%

Saving17%

TWh

Hydro8.8‐9.2%

PV 7.0%

Wind 1.7%

Biomass 3.7‐4.6%

Geothermal 1.0‐1.1%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2013 20300

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

2010 2013 2030

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Million kl Billion t‐CO2

572542

489

Oil

Coal

LNG

Nuclear

Renewable

1.1391.235

0.927

Industry

Commercial

Residential

Transportation

Conversion

Power Generation MixDiversification tofour energy kinds

Primary Energy9.8% reduction from 2013 level

Energy‐origin CO224.9% reduction from 2013 level

(Source: Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy)20302030 20302030

Schedule of Regulatory Reform of Electricity Market in Japan

112015

[1st Step]2015

[2nd Step]2016

[3rd Step]2018‐2020

Establishment of the organization for cross‐regional coordination of transmission

operators (OCCTO)

Legal unbundling of transmission

/distribution sector

1streform

2ndreform

3rdreform

Full retail competition

Abolishment of retail tariff

Period of transitional arrangement for retail tariff

Establishment of new system for securing supply capacity and real time market

14




Conclusions

2015

15

What is desirable for “Smarter” Energy Systems in Japan under current circumstance?Tackling the problems caused by rapid installation of intermittent renewables is urgent

Harmonized application with regulatory reform is important in the mid‐term

2015

DR is important and related research examples in CRIEPI1. Efficient and effective information supply for peak shaving2. Cost/benefit analysis of DR for PV reverse flow reduction3. Utilization of DR for secure supply of electricity (e.g.

frequency control, spinning reserve)Possibility of ancillary service DR for frequency control by air conditioner

Classification of Demand Response (DR)Demand‐Side Management

Demand Response Energy Efficiency

Dispatchable Non‐Dispachable

Reliability Time‐Sensitive Pricing

Capacity Ancillary Energy‐Voluntary Energy‐Price

Economic

Time‐of‐Use (TOU)Critical Peak Pricing (CPP)

Real Time Pricing (RTP)System Peak Response Transmission Tariff

Direct Load ControlInterruptible DemandCritical Peak Pricing (CPP) with control

Load as a capacity Resource

Spinning ReservesNon‐Spin ReservesRegulation

Emergency Demand Bidding & Buy‐Back

NERC, 2007, Demand‐Side Management Influence on Reliability‐ Results and Recommendations, Demand‐Side Management Task Force of the Resource Issues Subcommittee.

Direction of Evolution

2015 16

Example 1: Efficient and Effective Information Supply for Peak Shaving

2015 17

PurposeDevelop an efficient and effective method of information supply using smart meter / HEMS data

Method1. Unique TOU rate (Peak time price: +38%) 2. Information Supply (Monitor + Energy Saving Advice

Report)

Period, Site and SamplesAugust 2013 ~Apartment in Funabashi, ChibaAbout 500 Households

(1st period: 230 + 2nd period 270)

National Smart Community Projects in Japan

Yokohama*

Keihanna (Kyoto)*

Kitakyushu

Toyota*

-Large-scale deployment of PV (27MW)-Smart house/building (4,000 locations)-Next generation transport system

-Efficient energy use in households (70 households)-Efficient energy use in communities-Low carbon transport system

-Large-scale deployment of PV (1,000 households)-Nano-grids in homes/buildings-Local energy production for local consumption

-Real time energy management by smart meters-New energy (10% of energy consumption)-System to transfer the outcomes to Asia * Local electric power

company is involved

Source: Japan Smart City Portal

http://jscp.nepc.or.jp/en/index.shtml

182015

DR demonstration revealed CPP contributed to electricity saving up to 20%, but price elasticity is small. Such a high CPP price may not be accepted by the customers in the actual practice phase.

19

An Example of Story

2015

Appealing the energy saving of air‐conditioner at peak‐load time by showing multilateral data for customers. This customized advise for each customer is created automatically by our system.

20

The Result of Energy Saving(with TOU Rate)

2015

[値]

8,8%7,6%

[値]

[値]

[値]

[値]

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

'13 Summer, 1stperiod house

(kW)

'14 Summer, 1stperiod house

(kW)

'14 Summer, 2ndperiod house

(kW)

'13 Winter, 1stperiod house

(kW)

'14 Winter, 1stperiod house

(kW)

'13/8‐'14/7, 1stperiod house

(kWh)

'14/1‐'14/11,2nd periodhouse (kWh)

Demand in 30 minutes TOU rate

0‐400Wh/h 24 yen/kWh400‐1500Wh/h 29 yen/kWh

1500‐Wh/h 40 yen/kWh(less than +40%)

TOU rateOur method can achieve about 10% saving with the effect of relatively low price increase and saving advise. This method is assumed to be acceptable for a lot of customers.

Red: 1% significantBlue: 5% significantGreen: 10% significant

Saving

Rate

The reverse power flow in distribution systems with PV causes a voltage rise problem.

(The range of customer voltage: 95V‐107V)

Electric utilities have to invest heavily in distribution systems, such as installing Static Var Compensators (SVC).

Example 2: Cost/benefit Analysis of DRfor PV Reverse Flow Reduction

21

The cost of SVC (300kvar): about 15 million yen(about US$ 125,000 )

Distribution DistanceSubstation

Voltage

Upper limit

Lower limit

Voltage deviation

Voltage risecaused by PV

Residential loadonly

Residential loadand PV output

Source :http://www.tem.co.jp/

2015 21

[Case 1] Evenly at the whole distribution line

[Case 2] Only in half of the area of case 1

Distribution System Model and Arrangement of Customers & PVs

22

Node

15

Node

14

Node

13

Node

3

Node

2

Node

1・・・・・・・・

66/6 kVDistributionSubstation

Pole Tr6600/105V

・・・・

：House：House &

rooftop PV

Node

15

Node

14

Node

13

Node

3

Node

2

Node

1・・・・・・・・

66/6 kVDistributionSubstation

Pole Tr6600/105V

・・・：House：House &

rooftop PV

2015 22

DR conditions for solution of the voltage deviation throughout the year

The condition of case2 is severer and PV output should be suppressed more often. This frequency corresponds to DR request.

2015 23

Annual number of days that PV should suppress its output

Annual total number of hours that PV should suppress its output

Average hours per day

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

30% 40% 50%

Case 1

Case 2

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

30% 40% 50%

Case 1

Case 2

0

1

2

3

4

5

30% 40% 50%

Case 1

Case 2

PV penetration rate [%]

Days / Year

PV penetration rate [%] PV penetration rate [%]

Hours / Year Hours / Day

PV installationSVC number, cost

Case 1 Case 230% 40% 50% 30% 40% 50%

Number of 300kvar SVC 1 2 4 2 3 5Annual costs [103 yen/year] 1600 3200 6400 3200 4800 8000

Avoided number of SVC units and its annual costs

Avoided cost by implementing DR and Its Benefit

In the 30% case, plenty benefit which can overcome the income of FIT is expected and DR program may be realized.

PV penetration rate [%]

Case1Case2

Benefit of DR[Yen / suppressed kWh]

98

76

0% 30% 40% 50%

87

15

13

Benefit of DR

2015 24

Example 3: Utilization of DR for Ancillary Service

Mark Lauby, “ABC’s of Demand Response: NERC Activities,” DR‐Expo Toronto 2008.

2015 25

It is expected utilizing ancillary demand response will increase in the U.S. in next decade.

It may be used also in Japan after transmission/distribution sector will be unbundled in 2018‐2020.

We have done a simulation study about the possibility of ancillary service DR for frequency control with air conditioner.

Average Daily Contingency Reserve Availability over One Year, by Resource in U.S.

“Grid Integration of Aggregated DemandResponse, Part I: Load AvailabilityProfiles and Constraints for the WesternInterconnection,” LBNL‐6417E, 2013.

2015 26

Air conditioning (cooling) has a lot of reserve availability in U.S.

Simulation Model for Frequency Controlwith Commercial Air Conditioners

2015 27

Frequency Analysis Model Concept of Hierarchical Control

24 hours, 1 second interval sampling 6 thermal power + 2 nuclear power units (9.4GW)

Governor‐free operation and load frequency control by thermal power plants are modeled

Air conditioners are hierarchicallycontrolled to increase response frequency and efficient use of capacity

Aggregator will collect information Lower control system will manage the controllable capacity of its group

30GW

20GW

55GW

39GW

‐3‐2.5‐2‐1.5‐1‐0.500.51

‐1‐0.5

00.51

1.52

2.53

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324

周波

数変

動幅

[Hz]

周波

数変

動幅

[Hz]

時（刻み幅は1秒）

Control of Frequency Fluctuation withThermal Power and Air Conditioner

Spring or autumn, weekday

Control by thermal power and air conditioner

Control by thermal power

Current control band

Controlled better with air conditioneron the minus side

2015 28

Width of frequ

ency

fluctua

tion [Hz]

Hour (sampling interval: 1 second)

Responsive property of air conditioners in power down mode is quick and using air conditioners for frequency control will improve minus side frequency deviation.

29




Conclusions

2015

30

ConclusionsEven though the serious accident in Fukushima, maintain a certain dependence on nuclear power is important to achieve the “3E+S” energy policy goal.

Enhancing electricity demand control is one of the key issue to increase the share of intermittent renewables with nuclear utilization. DR may play a certain contribution by:Reducing reverse flow in distribution line by offering an incentive to customers

Maintaining grid stability (e.g. spinning reserve and frequency control)

Utilizing the data of smart meter is a key for new service and smarter energy systems after 2016.2015

31

Thank you for your attention!

any comments are [email protected]

2015

T. Mukai, et al., “Evaluating a Behavioral Demand Response Trial in Japan: Evidence from the Summer of 2013,” Proceedings of 2014 IEPPEC, Berlin.

K. Kawamura, “Applicability of Demand Response to Voltage Control in a distribution System with Large Integration of Rooftop PV,” Proceedings of IEEE EnergyTech 2013, Cleveland.

H. Kikuchi, “Load Frequency Control by Power Consumption Control of Commercial Air Conditioners under Large Penetration of Renewable Energy Generation,” Proceedings of IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy, Vol. 135 (2015), No.4, pp.233‐240.

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