the kearney reportreport · of years past were again seen this spring and summer in the local real...

The The The The Kearney Kearney Kearney Kearney ReportReportReportReport

Boulder County Real Estate

2nd Quarter 2013

KearneyRealty.com 2


Do you remember the feeling when the music stopped and there wasn’t an unoccupied chair in sight? Of course I’m referring

to the birthday party game of musical chairs. That feeling of frenzy and despair so often seen during those birthday parties of years past were again seen this spring and summer in the local real estate market. The cause was strong buyer demand and a lack of homes on the market, the effect was multiple offers, empowered home sellers and strong price increases. Let’s take a closer look at each of these factors.

The seeds of this years strong market were sown at the end of 2012. Just as the market was expected to take its usual course and wind down for the year sales in October, November exceeded closings in September and closings in December

exceeded the previous year by 16%. When the calendar turned buyers were out in force and the common refrain was “when are more listings going to hit the market?”. It turned out that listings were in short supply all spring. The abundance of buy-

ers was spurned by many factors the most important being

low interest rates, strong overall confidence in their eco-nomic situation and a rental market that is characterized by rising rents and a severe shortfall in supply.

During the housing downturn of 2008 - 2011 we were for-tunate that the number active listings dropped along with the number of sales. (see graph to the right) This relative

balance in the market (fewer buyers - fewer sellers) allowed for our prices to remain fairly stable just as other areas were seeing a steep devaluation. We were lucky that our

area didn’t see mass layoffs or other factors that forced people to sell. A majority of households in our market decided during the soft market that they would stay rather than sell and those who didn’t need to sell because of

external circumstances chose to stay. That mindset has continued and even as the market has improved over the past two years the number of listings on the market has

fallen. At the end of April when the market was in full swing with buyers there were 1,442 active homes on the market in Boulder County compare this to the 2,464 that were on the market at the same time of year in 2007! To further complicate matters roughly 40% of all active listings this spring had a contract pending. The results were often frustrating for buyers

looking to move in a reasonable time frame. The outcomes of the above two factors were multiple offers on many homes, an extreme sellers market when negotiating and a healthy jump in prices. Buyers knew that they needed to act quickly when a new listing hit the market. Most buyers

agents were searching multiple times per day and serious buyers were ready to leave work at a moments notice to see the next new listing. It was not uncommon to have multiple offers on a house by the end of the first day of showings. Sellers and listing agents changed strategy by mid-spring and used tactics like delaying showings until two or three days after listing

or announcing when offers would be reviewed. Very hubris but effective. The results of this frenzy was that buyers were will-ing to pay more than the recent comparables said they should and in a short amount of time sellers were testing

the market with prices that had the neighbors shaking their head. And they were getting there price! The preliminary data show that prices have risen approximately 10% this year. In some areas the increases were more towards 15 or

20%. A definite kick start out of a relatively stagnant price environment we have seen over the past half decade.

Here in mid-August it’s apparent that the market has slowed a bit. The inventory of available homes has increased a little and the under contract percentage has decreased a

touch. But more telling is that there is no longer a frenzy for new listings. Interest rates have jumped nearly a point (now between 4.5 and 5%) and school is just beginning again. Sales for the year peaked in July (See 2nd graph

this page) and what remains to be seen is how long and how strong this market will remain. Through July, sales are up roughly 10% from 2012 and up 38% from 2011. I would expect that we will slow a bit by the end of the year but still have more sales in 2013 than in 2012.

KearneyRealty.com 3


The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) tracks home values in 304 metropolitan areas across the

United States. The top graph shows Boulder County’s appreciation on a quarterly basis compared to the

United States average. The lower graph shows Boulder’s national ranking in appreciation over time. The

main takeaway is that, comparatively we are doing very well.

According to FHFA.gov, median home prices in Boulder County are 2.98% above where they were a year

ago. The one year appreciation ranks us 76th among the 304 metropolitan districts. We expect the ap-

preciation for the second quarter to be quite an improvement over this level.

Boulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder County

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

1st Qtr. 2009

2nd Qtr. 2009

3rd Qtr. 2009

4th Qtr. 2009

1st Qtr. 2010

2nd Qtr. 2010

3rd Qtr. 2010

4th Qtr. 2010

1st Qtr. 2011

2nd Qtr. 2011

3rd Qtr. 2011

4th Qtr. 2011

1st Qtr. 2012

2nd Qtr. 2012

3rd Qtr. 2012

4th Qtr. 2012

1st Qtr. 2013

One Year Appreciation

Source FHFA.gov

Boulder County United States

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2nd Qtr.

2006

4th Qtr.

2006

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2nd Qtr.

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2008

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4th Qtr.

2011

2nd Qtr.

2012

4th Qtr.

2012

FHFA Ranking Ranking of one year Appreciation

(304 Total Metro Areas)

KearneyRealty.com 4


Total sales were up 6% in the 2nd quarter compared to a year ago. Throughout Boulder

County, 70% of all real estate sales during the quarter were single family homes. The pie

graph on the right shows the breakdown of the percentage of properties that closed during the

quarter in each area. 32% of the closings during the quarter took place in Boulder, followed by

Longmont at 26%. What is listed as “Plains” is the suburban plains which includes, Gunbarrel,

Niwot, Lyons, the Boulder County side of Erie and all the rural area in between.


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Five Year Trend of Sales Activity Boulder County

70%

27%

3%

Boulder County Sales by Type

Residential Attached Other

32%

6%

11%

26%

16%

5%4%

Boulder County Sales by Area

Boulder Louisville Lafayette Longmont

Superior Mountains Plains

KearneyRealty.com 5


The charts on this page of-

fer an interesting view of

the real estate market in

Boulder County.

The top chart shows the

percentage of closings that

occurred in each price

range during the second

quarter. There is a data for

four quarters, but usually

the percentages are fairly

stable. What stands out is

that this past quarter 72%

of the sales in the county

sell for less than $500,000.

The higher price ranges

seem to be recovering. Dur-

ing the third quarter of

2012, 21% of the sales in

the county sold for over

$750,000. During the most

recent quarter 28% of the

sales were in the same

range.

The lower chart shows

prices in Boulder County

over the last five years on

a quarterly basis. The re-

cent activity in the market

has pushed prices up break-

ing a trend.


37%

36%

34%

30%

42%

43%

41%

42%

13%

13%

17%

17%

4%

5%

3%

6%

4%

3%

4%

5%

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Q2 2013

Boulder County Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

Q2

2008

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2008

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2012

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Price Trends in Boulder County Real Estate

Median Price

Average Price

US Existing Median Price

KearneyRealty.com 6


Interestingly, sales within the City of Boulder decreased slightly during the second quarter this

year when compared to last year. A major cause for this has been the lack of listing inventory.

If there is nothing to sell, sales will drop. The sales mix in the City of Boulder this quarter is

50/50, half residential and half attached dwellings. Sales by zip code throughout the city are

fairly evenly spread. This past quarter, most of the sales were in 80304 followed closely by

80303.

City of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of Boulder

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700

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2013

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity City of Boulder

50%

50%

Sales by Type City of Boulder

Residential Attached

16%

16%

23%

31%

14%

City of Boulder Sales by Zip Code

80301 80302 80303 80304 80305

KearneyRealty.com 7


The City of Boulder

has had more homes

sell the luxury quad-

rant than other areas

of the county. 72% of

the sales countywide

were below $500,000,

in Boulder only 56% of

the sales were below

that threshold. Within

Boulder, sales over $1

million were 11% of

the market this past

quarter, this is over

double the percentage

of the county.

The lower chart shows

prices in the City of

Boulder over the past

five years. Until this

quarter prices have not

moved much over the

past five years. The

median price for the

second quarter in

Boulder for all residen-

tial properties sold was

$449,900 up from

$415,250 a year ago.

City of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of Boulder

25%

25%

21%

25%

39%

37%

37%

31%

21%

22%

27%

22%

6%

10%

7%

11%

8%

6%

7%

11%

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Q2 2013

City of Boulder Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

Q1

2009

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2009

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2009

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Q2

2013

City of Boulder Price Trends

Median Price Average Price County Median

KearneyRealty.com 8


East county includes sales in Erie, Lafayette, Louisville and Superior. The top graph shows that

sales had a big spike during the second quarter. The 539 sales represent the highest level

over the past five years. A vast majority of the sales in east county are single family homes.

Just 18% of sales were condos or townhomes. The pie chart on the right shows where the

sales are taking place. The area where the most sales took place was Erie.

East CountyEast CountyEast CountyEast County

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Five Year Trend of Sales Activity East County Communities

82%

18%

Sales by Type East County Communities

Residential Attached

19%

32%

12%

37%

East County Sales by Area

Louisville Lafayette Superior Erie

KearneyRealty.com 9


The median price for

sales in Erie, Lafayette,

Louisville and Superior

during the Second

quarter was $350,000.

A vast majority of the

sales in this area are

in the $250 - $500k

range. There are very

few sales above

$750,000 (just 18 sales

or 3%).

Unlike other areas in

Boulder County, prices

have shown a slow

steady climb over the

past few years. This

past quarter prices

were 7% higher than

at the same point last

year.

There is a lack of in-

ventory in many of the

markets in east county.

The mix of proximity,

lifestyle and median

price had made these

communities very

popular with buyers.

And have caused posi-

tive price pressure.

East CountyEast CountyEast CountyEast County

27%

25%

23%

21%

59%

59%

61%

60%

11%

15%

13%

16%

2%

1%

3%

2%

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Q2 2013

East County - Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Q2

2008

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2008

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2008

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2009

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2009

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Q2

2013

Price Trend in East Boulder County

Median Price Average Price County Median Price

KearneyRealty.com 10


Gunbarrel is an area just northeast of Boulder. It is comprised of properties both within the City

of Boulder and others which are in Boulder County. Year after year the second quarter has the

most sales activity in this area. Sales were strong but were actually down a bit when com-

pared to the second quarter last year. This past quarter 65% of the sales in Gunbarrel were

single family homes and the balance were condos and townhomes. Many quarters it is nearer

to 50/50. There were 85 sales in Gunbarrel during the most recent quarter.

GunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrel

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Five Year Trend of Sales Activity - Gunbarrel

Residential65%

Attached35%

Sales by Type Gunbarrel




all sales in Gunbarrel

during the second


A majority of the sales

in Gunbarrel close for

$500,000 or less.

There were just 3 sales

in Gunbarrel over

$750,000 during the

past quarter. Over the

past four quarters the

$500 - $750 price

range has been grow-

ing and the $250 -

$500 price range has

been shrinking. Prices

have jumped.

The sample size for

Gunbarrel is smaller

than the other areas

we look at. Therefore,

the prices reflected in

the graph below are

more variable. Prices

were up 14% over last

years results.

GunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrel

33%

36%

34%

29%

59%

54%

49%

48%

6%

8%

15%

19%

0%

2%

0%

4%

2%

0%

2%

0%

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Q2 2013

Gunbarrel Percent of Sales by Price Range

0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

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2008

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Q2

2013

Price Trend in Gunbarrel

Median Price

Average Price

Boulder County Median



Sales in Longmont surged during the second quarter of 2013. Overall there was a 12% jump in

the number of sales from the second quarter of 2012. Roughly 81% of the sales in Longmont

are single family homes. Sales are usually evenly spread throughout the city but this past quar-

ter 42% of sales were in central Longmont in area code 80501.

LongmontLongmontLongmontLongmont

0

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Five Year Trend of Sales Activity - Longmont

Residential81%

Attached19%

Sales by Type Longmont

42%

23%

35%

Sales by Zip Code - Longmont

80501 80503 80504




all sales in Longmont

during the second


Nearly all of the sales

in Longmont close for

$500,000 or less.

There have only been

seven sales over

$750,000 during the

past four quarters.

The median and aver-

age prices in Longmont

are lower than the

county average. The

majority of homes in

Longmont are in the

$150,000 to $300,000

range. This past quar-

ter the average price

of a home that sold in

Longmont was

$261,015. The aver-

age price for all

homes sold in Boulder

County was $436,024.

Longmont continues to

offer good value in

housing.

LongmontLongmontLongmontLongmont

63%

63%

57%

58%

34%

34%

37%

42%

3%

2%

5%

0%

0%

1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Q2 2013

Longmont Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

Q2

2008

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Q2

2013

Price Trend in Longmont

Median Price Average Price Boulder County



0

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200

300

400

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600

January March May July September November

Boulder County Sales by Month

Single Family and Condos

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

January February March April May June July August September October November December

Boulder County Median PriceSingle Family and Condos

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Kearney Realty is a local boutique real estate firm with the mission to provide the Boulder Valley a high touch, high touch, high touch, high touch,

high tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experience. Each of our full time associates is empowered and engaged to give top

quality service based on impeccable ethics, consistent systems, professional development and cutting edge tools.



0

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January February March April May June July August September October November December

2007200720072007 2008200820082008 2009200920092009 2010201020102010 2011201120112011 2012201220122012 2013201320132013

Homes on the Market

Boulder County Residential

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

January March May July September November

Boulder County - Percentage of Single Family Listings Under Contract

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013



The charts on this page show activity on a weekly basis. The top chart shows new listings coming on

the market and the purple line (2013) shows the trend in lower inventory. The lower chart shows the

number of homes that have gone under contract on a weekly basis. This shows gross numbers not per-

centage increases. The combination of these two graphs demonstrate the shortage in the market.

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152

Boulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real Estate

New Listings New Listings New Listings New Listings ---- WeeklyWeeklyWeeklyWeekly

2011

2010

2012

2013

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152

Ax

is T

itle

Weekly Under ContractWeekly Under ContractWeekly Under ContractWeekly Under Contract

2010

2011

2012

2013



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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152

Sa

les

Boulder County Real Estate

Number Sold - Weekly

2010

2011

2012

2013

Kearney Realty - Our Core Values

1. Integrity and Class – Keeping our word; knowing what’s right and

doing what’s right.

2. Selfless Service – Exceeding expectations by focusing on excep-

tional service.

3. Caring - All of our relationships are based on mutual respect, co-

operation and consideration.

4. Connected - Give back to the profession and the community. 5%

of company profits are donated to local charities.

5. Innovation – Continually striving to find new and better ways to

serve our customers and associates.

the kearney reportreport · of years past were again seen this spring and summer in the local real...

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