The Labor Market for STEM Skills

Jonathan T. Rothwell, PhD FellowBrookings Institution

UNLV September 10, 2014

Why does STEM matter?

1. Enhanced global, national, and regional consumer welfare via enhanced innovation and entrepreneurship

2. Greater prosperity through higher incomes of STEM workers and their colleagues and spending multipliers

3. Private benefits to those who acquire the skills and the owners of companies who employ them

Defining STEM as a set of skills

What is a STEM Job?Conventional View:

• Definition uses no clear standard

• Professional jobs only

• 5% of US workforce

• 80 percent have a bachelor’s degree or higher

How Brookings defines STEM• Based on O*NET survey of

worker knowledge

• 21% of US workforce

• 50 percent have a bachelor’s degree or higher

• Higher correlation with wages and cognitive skill

Major Occupational Categories Sorted by STEM Score, with Share of Jobs that are STEM, 2011

 

High-STEM, Percentage of

JobsArchitecture and engineering 100%

Life, physical, and social science 87%Healthcare practitioner and technical 76%Computer and mathematical science 100%Installation, maintenance, and repair 53%

Management 27%Construction and extraction 40%

Education, training, and library 9%Business and financial operations 42%

Farming, fishing, and forestry 8%Production 23%

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 16%Sales and related 0%

Legal 0%Source: The Hidden STEM Economy (Brookings Institution, 2013)

The US STEM Labor Market

The STEM Labor Market

Supply

Demand

• Long-run shortage, temporarily ameliorated by the recession

• Weak response in supply, even as salaries have increased

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20120.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Wage Premium for STEM Skills, Controlling for Experience, Education, and Sex, 1950-

2012

Standard Deviation in Occupational STEM Skill

Analysis of data from Census Bureau via Integrated Public Use Microdata Series and O*NET. For methods, see Jonathan Rothwell, “Hidden STEM Economy,” (Brookings Institution, 2012).

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0.94

0.96

0.98

1.00

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.10

Growth in real median earnings by occupation, 2000-2013 (Source: BLS Current Population

Survey)

architects and engineerscomputer and mathscientistshealthcare practitionersall occupation

Earn

ings index,

2000=

1

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

Average salaries of software developers compared to all other workers, in 2013 dol-

lars (Source: Analysis of Current Population Sur-

vey, via IPUMS)

Software DevelopersAll workers

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

4.6%6.0%

10.2%

14.9%

Growth rate in employment by occu-pation, 2009-2013

USA labor force architects and engineershealthcare practitioner computer and math workers

From 2009-2013, 3 out of every 10 jobs created on net have been in computer and healthcare practitioner occupations

Source: BLS CPS

Apr2004

Oct2004

Apr2005

Oct2005

Apr2006

Oct2006

Apr2007

Oct2007

Apr2008

Oct2008

Apr2009

Oct2009

Apr2010

Oct2010

Apr2011

Oct2011

Apr2012

Oct2012

Apr2013

Oct2013

Apr2014

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

U.S. Hiring Difficulty Index, 3-month av-erage

Source: Brookings analysis of JOLTS data, 2004-2014

JOLTS Hiring Difficulty Index, 3-month averageIndex = job openings last month per hire this month

March

-200

9

May-2

009

July

-200

9

Sept

embe

r-200

9

Novem

ber-2

009

Janu

ary-

2010

March

-201

0

May-2

010

July

-201

0

Sept

embe

r-201

0

Novem

ber-2

010

Janu

ary-

2011

March

-201

1

May-2

011

July

-201

1

Sept

embe

r-201

1

Novem

ber-2

011

Janu

ary-

2012

March

-201

2

May-2

012

July

-201

2

Sept

embe

r-201

2

Novem

ber-2

012

Janu

ary-

2013

March

-201

3

May-2

013

July

-201

3

Sept

embe

r-201

3

Novem

ber-2

013

Janu

ary-

2014

March

-201

4

May-2

014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Percent of small businesses reporting few or no qualified applicants, 2009 to May 2014

Source: William C. Dunkelbery and Holly Wade, "NFIB Small Business Economic Trends," (NFIB

Research Foundation, June 2014).

Computer and mathematical science

Architecture and engineering

Business and financial operations

Management

Sales and related

USA

Healthcare support

Legal

Food preparation and serving related

Production

Personal care and service

Farming, fishing, and forestry

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

4.33.1

2.51.5

1.11.0

0.90.7

0.60.50.50.50.5

0.40.40.4

0.30.30.20.20.20.1

0.0

Openings per unemployed worker, April 2014 (Source: Conference Board, HWOL)

PhD/p

rofe

ssiona

l deg

ree

Mas

ter's

Bach

elor

's

Asso

ciat

e's de

gree

High

scho

ol

No re

quire

men

t men

tione

d0

10

20

30 2521

1812

85

1411 13

5 62

Median duration of job advertisements posted in 2013-Q1 in days by STEM skill

and minimum education required

STEM Non-STEM

Median DurationAll STEM: 11 days

All Non-STEM: 5 days

Source: “Still Searching: Job Vacancies and STEM Skills” (Brookings)

Health Care Practi

tioners

Computer and M

athematical

Archite

cture and Engineerin

g

Management

Sales and Related

Education, T

raining, and Lib

rary

Food Preparation and Serving

Life, P

hysical, a

nd Social S

cience

Business

and Financial

Arts, D

esign, E

ntertainment

Legal

Health Care Support

Installa

tion, Maintenance

, and Repair

Farming, F

ishing, a

nd Forestry

Protecti

ve Service

Personal C

are and Service

Constructi

on and Extracti

on

Transporta

tion

Community and Socia

l Service

Building and Gro

unds Cleaning

Producti

on

Office and Admin

18

15

13 13

11

8 87 7

5 54

32

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Median duration of 2013-Q1 vacancy advertisement by occupation (Source: Brookings analysis of Burning Glass)

STEM vacancies are the hardest to

fill

Micro

soft

Windo

wsSQ

LJA

VA

Oracle

Java

Scrip

t

Trou

bles

hoot

ing

Qualit

y As

sura

nce

and

Contro

lSA

P

LINUX

.NET

Pro

gram

ming

Micro

soft

Micro

soft

C#

SQL Se

rver

UNIX

Web

Site

Dev

elop

men

t

Busin

ess Pr

oces

sC+

+

jQue

ry

Busin

ess An

alys

is

Objec

t-Orie

nted

Ana

lysis

and

Des

ign

(OOAD

)0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

The Computer Skills Most Commonly Requested by Employers by number of advertised vacancies in 2013

(Source: Brookings analysis of Burning Glass)

Regional Variation in STEM Markets

Percentage of Advertised Vacancies in STEM Occupations for metro areas with at least 50,000 vacancies, 2013

(Source: Brookings analysis of Burning Glass)

High unemployment (>10%)

Moderately high unemployment (<=10%, >

=5%)

Moderately low (<

5%, >=3%)

Low unemployment (<

3%)02468

10121416

7.48.5

13.7 14.3

Average occupational hiring difficulty by regional unem-ployment rate

(Source: Brookings analysis of Burning Glass and 2012 Census microdata via IPUMS)

Median duration of opening (days) for occupational group

How does the STEM labor market look in Nevada?

Web Developers

Financial Managers, Branch or Department

Network and Computer Systems Administrators

First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers

Computer User Support Specialists

Medical and Health Services Managers

Software Developers, Applications

Retail Salespersons

Patient Representatives

Registered Nurses

02,000

4,0006,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Of Nevada's 20 Most Common Occupations with Vacancies Advertised in 2013, 9 are STEM jobs

Share of total openings typically requiring

bachelor’s degree or higher in STEM

occupations (2013) versus STEM degree

attainment for population 25 and older (2012), Las Vegas MSA, Source: Brookings analysis of 2013Q4 Burning Glass data, O*NET, and 2012

American Community Survey

In Nevada’s professional level STEM economy, relatively low demand is met with even lower supply

Nevada USA

16.9%

24.4%

6.2%

8.6%

Vacancies requiring bachelor's degree and STEMSTEM bachelor's degree attainment rate

Demand

Supply

STEM jobs in Nevada pay higher salaries at high and low levels of education

Wages of STEM and non-STEM jobs by

educational requirements of

occupations, Nevada, 2013

Source: Brookings analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics OES data

and O*NET

Bachelor's or higher Sub-bachelor's level

$83,925

$57,923 $56,584

$32,743

STEMNon-STEM

4.0%

6.3%6.5%

9.5%

STEM occupationNon-STEM occupa-tion

2012 Unemployment Rate in Nevada by STEM status

of Occupation and Level of

Education

(Source: Analysis of 2012 American Community Survey via IPUMS and

O*NET)

STEM workers in Nevada experience lower unemployment at both high and mid levels of educational attainment

Healthcare support

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media

Office and administrative support

Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance

Construction and extraction

Food preparation and serving related

Business and financial operations

Community and social services

Sales and related

Computer and mathematical science

Education, training, and library

0 5 10 15 20 25

Median duration of vacancies in Las Vegas for major occupations, 2013-Q1

(Source: Brookings analysis of Burning Glass data, 2013-Q1

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical

Architecture and Engineering

Life, Physical, and Social Science

Management

Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance

Business and Financial Operations

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair

Legal

Computer and Mathematical

Sales and Related

Food Preparation and Serving Related

Office and Administrative Support

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media

Production

Transportation and Material Moving

Construction and Extraction

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0%

NevadaUSA

Computer workers have relatively high unem-ployment in NV, but other STEM profession-als have the lowest un-employment rates in the state

2012 Unemployment by Occupation in Nevada vs the United StatesSource: 2012 American Community Survey via IPUMS

Networ

k an

d Com

pute

r Sys

tem

s Adm

inist

rato

rs

Softw

are

Develop

ers,

Applic

ations

and

Sys

tem

s Sof

twar

e

Web

Dev

elop

ers

Compu

ter O

ccup

ations

, All O

ther

Compu

ter S

cient

ists a

nd S

yste

ms A

nalys

ts

Compu

ter S

uppo

rt Sp

ecialis

ts

Compu

ter P

rogr

amm

ers

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0%

4% 4% 5%8%

10%

24%

Unemployment Rates of Computer Occupations in Nevada with at Least 1000 Workers in 2012

(Source: 2012 American Community Survey via IPUMS)

Mean advertisement duration in days of average skill requested in computer occupations advertised in 100 metropolitan areas with most

vacancies, 2013(Source: Brookings analysis of Burning Glass data)

Las Vegas, 39.8

San Jose, 44.2

Boulder CO, 41.4

Computer jobs advertised in Las Vegas require easier-to-find skills than those advertised in most metropolitan areas

Honolulu, 38.1

The Supply Problem

Science Technologies; 105; 0%Engineering technologies;

19138; 2% Agriculture Science; 5355; 1%Engineering; 74423; 7%

Computer sciences; 39927; 4%

Math; 16515; 2%

Biology; 39047; 4%Physical Sciences;

20155; 2%

Health Professions; 64399; 6%

Non-STEM; 724468; 72%

1987: Majors by field for STEM and non-STEM (Source: NSF)

2012: Majors by field for STEM and non-STEM (Source: NSF)

Science Technologies; 568; 0%Engineering technologies;

16040; 1% Agriculture Science; 16365; 1%Engineering; 82197; 5%Computer sciences; 41745; 2%

Math; 18838; 1%Biology; 96912; 6%Physical Sciences;

26347; 2%

Health Professions; 152734; 9%

Non-STEM; 1288267;

74%

Engaging young women in STEM can help narrow the STEM gap in Nevada

Female share of bachelor’s degree holders by STEM

field, ages 18 to 30, Nevada, 2010-2012

Source: Brookings analysis of 2010-2012 American Community

Survey via IPUMSEn

ginee

ring

Computer an

d Inform

ation Sc

ience

s

Mathem

atics

and St

atisti

cs

Biology an

d Life

Scien

ces

Medica

l and Hea

lth Sc

ience

s and Se

rvice

s

21%31%

56%65%

80%

Popu

latio

n sh

are

Compu

ter a

nd In

form

ation

Scienc

es

Engine

ering

Biology

and

Life

Scie

nces

Mat

hem

atics

and

Sta

tistic

s

Med

ical a

nd H

ealth

Scie

nces

and

Ser

vices

8%

32%18% 19% 13%

30%9%

4%

8% 2%0%

6%33%14%

10% 16%

0%

15%

45% 47%64% 57%

87%

46%

whitelatinoblackasian

STEM bachelor’s degree attainment

by field versus population share, by race/ethnicity, 18-30 year-olds, Nevada, 2010-

2012

Source: Brookings analysis of 2010-2012 American

Community Survey via IPUMS

Closing the STEM opportunity gap will also require elevating STEM completion rates for under-represented young populations, especially African Americans and Latinos

Why don’t more people get STEM training?

1. Success in STEM depends on knowledge acquired as a child. High wage premiums for STEM degree holders don’t make parents and teachers better at teaching STEM subjects or children more committed to learning them

2. Switch-out rates are extremely high and correlated with math experience and skill, suggesting inadequate K-12 prep and higher-ed resources

3. Cultural and social barriers prevent many women, blacks, and Latinos from pursuing a STEM degree

How to boost STEM Skills

The to-do list1) Enrich infant/toddler home life

2) Improve pre-K to 10th grade quality across the board

3) Allow students to take post-secondary level classes during last two years of high school

4) Lower cost of college and adopt best practices in retention and completion in higher-education

5) Expand access to adult training & improve curriculum alignment with demand

Who Needs to do it1) Non-profits; state & local

governments

2) Non-profits; state & local governments

3) Non-profits; state & local governments

4) Governments, non-profits and Higher Ed via innovation, tuition support, tutoring, and mentoring

5) Governments; Colleges; Businesses via philanthropic

investments, apprenticeships, internships, and on-the-job training

For more informationEmail:

Jonathan Rothwell jrothwell@brookings.edu

Visit:www.brookings.edu/metro

Hidden STEM Economy http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2013/06/10-stem-economy-rothwell

Still Searching : Job Vacancies and STEM Skillshttp://www.brookings.edu/research/interactives/2014/job-vacancies-and-stem-skills#/M10420

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