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The Labor Market Situation in January

February 10, 2014

Dr. Jennifer Hunt

Chief Economist U.S. Department of Labor

Office of the Chief Economist

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Payroll survey: unexpectedly weak

1-month change, in thousands January 2014 142 December 2013 89 November 2013 272

12-month change, in thousands January 2013 to 2014: 2,291 Average: 191

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But the longer trend still shows steady growth

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Two employment surveys: CES & Payroll-concept-adjusted CPS

Household  and  payroll  survey  employment,  seasonally  adjusted,  March  2001 January  2014  

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Explanation

Last month we blamed Idiosyncratic: accountants, motion pictures Weather: construction

So how do these look this time?

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Employment growth by super-sector this month

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Employment growth by super-sector over the year

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Construction saw the largest 1-month increase since 2007 (but this may be seasonal or rebound from December)

1-month change, in thousands January 2014 48 December 2013 -22 November 2013 32

12-month change, in thousands January 2013 to 2014: 179 Average: 15

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Details

Construction (January reference week mild; context of layoff month) Dec: -22,000 Jan: +48,000

Accountants still MIA Dec: -32,000 Jan: +5000

Motion pictures Dec: -11,000 Jan: +6000

Retail (return from unusually high in Dec) Dec: +63,000 Jan: -13,000

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Employment growth by super-sector peak to trough

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January 2014 6.6 % December 2013 6.7 % November 2013: 7.0 % January 2013: 7.9 %

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January 2014: 58.8 % December 2013: 58.6 % November 2013: 58.6 % January 2013: 58.6 %

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LFP has been essentially flat since October

January 2014: 63.0 % December 2013: 62.8 % November 2013: 63.0 % January 2013: 63.6 %

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Long-term unemployment rate ticked down, but remains highest since 1983

January 2014: 2.3 % December 2013: 2.5 % November 2013: 2.6 % January 2013: 3.0 %

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Thank you!

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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Deficit, as a Percent of GDP Average, 1974-2013

CBO Report: Economic Projections

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62.9

60.8

56.0

58.0

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Labor Force Participation Rate

Projected Actual

CBO Report: Labor Force Projections

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54.0

55.0

56.0

57.0

58.0

59.0

60.0

61.0

62.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Labor Income, Share of GDP Share of GDP

Projected Actual

CBO Report: Economic Projections

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Government job losses unprecedented

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Private-sector growth over past 5 recoveries

+ 12,737+ 11,970

+ 8,488+ 4,523+ 7,318

-­‐2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54

jobs  add

ed  (in  thou

sand

s)

months  after  the  official  end  of  recession

Recovery  comparison:  private  sector  job  growth  55  months  after  official  end  of  the  recession

Mar-­‐75

Nov-­‐82

Mar-­‐91

Nov-­‐01

Jun-­‐09

Source:  Bureau of  Labor  Statistics,  Current  Employment   Statistics