The Latino Vote in 2020(And Lessons from 2018)

June 26, 2019

Matt A. Barreto@realMABarreto

1. WHAT WE LEARNED ABOUT 2018

The Latino Vote Project◻ Latino Report Project Goals 2018 research trends 2018 voting results Role of Latino organizations, programs, funding Thinking ahead to 2020

Change in share of all voters who were Latino or White from 2014 to 2018

Change in Margin Democratic Vote Share2014 US House to 2018 US Senate

Census vote data 2014 – 2018

6

Nov 2014 Nov 2018 Change 14-18

Latino Registered

Latino Voted

Latino Turnout

Latino Registered

Latino Voted

Latino Turnout

Additional votes

Vote Growth

Turnout change

US 12,862,000 6,775,000 53% 15,558,000 11,695,000 75% 4,920,000 73% +22%

AZ 687,000 364,000 53% 757,000 588,000 78% 224,000 62% +25%

CA 3,294,000 1,707,000 52% 4,211,000 3,300,000 78% 1,593,000 93% +27%

FL 1,493,000 892,000 60% 1,723,000 1,393,000 81% 501,000 56% +21%

NV 189,000 97,000 51% 212,000 156,000 74% 59,000 61% +22%

NJ 497,000 274,000 55% 578,000 471,000 81% 197,000 72% +26%

NM 302,000 179,000 59% 322,000 242,000 75% 63,000 35% +16%

NY 995,000 502,000 50% 963,000 731,000 76% 229,000 46% +25%

TX 2,255,000 1,092,000 48% 2,843,000 1,918,000 67% 826,000 76% +19%

Issues that drove anger in 2018

7Source: BOLD-PAC/HMP/Priorities July 2018 Midterm Latino Messaging Survey, N=1,063

58

52

71

74

77

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

End DACA

GOP Tax bill

Cuts to health care

Child separations

Called animals

Percent reporting "very angry"

No “net gain” from attacking immigrants

8Source: American Election Eve Poll, 2018 www.electioneve2018.com @LatinoDecisions

55

74

76

69

48

59

42

22

21

27

49

33

Total

Latino

Black

AAPI

White

Native Am

Immigrants just want to provide a better life for their families, just like you and me. Isupport legislation to make America more welcoming to immigrants

America has too many illegal immigrants, they hurt the economy, bring crime and gangviolence to our cities. We have to crack down on illegal immigration

Immigrant attacks accomplish nothing

9

In 2018, many Republicans made attacks on immigrants’ part of their campaigns. It’s obvious we need to reform our immigration policies but calling immigrants rapists and gang members accomplishes nothing. Congress should work together on bipartisan immigration reform and put the issue to rest, and address important issues like improving wages, lowering the cost of health care so we have more money in our pockets.

86 87 9584 85 81

11 114

13 11 15

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Latino Black AAPI White Native Am

Agree Disagree

Source: American Election Eve Poll, 2018 www.electioneve2018.com @LatinoDecisions

Immigrant attacks accomplish nothing

10

In 2018, many Republicans made attacks on immigrants’ part of their campaigns. It’s obvious we need to reform our immigration policies but calling immigrants rapists and gang members accomplishes nothing. Congress should work together on bipartisan immigration reform and put the issue to rest, and address important issues like improving wages, lowering the cost of health care so we have more money in our pockets.

86 87 9584 85 81

11 114

13 11 15

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Latino Black AAPI White Native Am

Agree Disagree

Source: American Election Eve Poll, 2018 www.electioneve2018.com @LatinoDecisions

Immigrant attacks accomplish nothing

11

In 2018, many Republicans made attacks on immigrants’ part of their campaigns. It’s obvious we need to reform our immigration policies but calling immigrants rapists and gang members accomplishes nothing. Congress should work together on bipartisan immigration reform and put the issue to rest, and address important issues like improving wages, lowering the cost of health care so we have more money in our pockets.

86 87 9584 85 81

11 114

13 11 15

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Latino Black AAPI White Native Am

Agree Disagree

Source: American Election Eve Poll, 2018 www.electioneve2018.com @LatinoDecisions

Immigrant attacks accomplish nothing

12

In 2018, many Republicans made attacks on immigrants’ part of their campaigns. It’s obvious we need to reform our immigration policies but calling immigrants rapists and gang members accomplishes nothing. Congress should work together on bipartisan immigration reform and put the issue to rest, and address important issues like improving wages, lowering the cost of health care so we have more money in our pockets.

8067

87 9477 82

1625

115

18 14

0

20

40

60

80

100

White Repub Indep Democ Men Women

Agree DisagreeAmong White voters

Source: American Election Eve Poll, 2018 www.electioneve2018.com @LatinoDecisions

2. WHAT THIS TELLS US ABOUT 2020

The rise of racism in American elections

14

Total Latino Black AAPI White Native

Trump has no impact on [my community] 8 6 11 21 7 22

Trump has a positive impact on [my community] 33 18 8 18 40 18

Trump has a negative impact on [my community] 21 27 29 29 19 25

Trump is a racist whose policies are intended to hurt [my community] 34 48 48 27 31 30

Total negative / racist 55 75 77 56 50 55

Which statement comes closest to your own view (Nov 2018)

Source: American Election Eve Poll, 2018 www.electioneve2018.com @LatinoDecisions

Latino views towards 2020

15

8 11 30 51

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

How much of a problem is racism against Latinos and immigrants today (Apr 2019)

None Not much Somewhat Major problem

81%

Source: NALEO/LD National Poll of Latino Reg Voters, April 2019 @LatinoDecisions

Latino views towards 2020

16

4 10 35 51

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

How much of a problem is racism against Latinos and immigrants today (Jun 2019)

None Not much Somewhat Major problem

86%

Source: National Poll of Latino Reg Voters, June 2019 @LatinoDecisions

Top concerns and priorities in 2020

17

Latino views towards the GOP

18Source: National Poll of Latino Reg Voters, June 2019 @LatinoDecisions

44 32 13 11

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

When I hear some Republicans talk about immigration and border security it makes me feel like they don’t want Latino immigrants in this country

All

76%

Latino views towards the GOP

19Source: National Poll of Latino Reg Voters, June 2019 @LatinoDecisions

44 32 13 11

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

When I hear some Republicans talk about immigration and border security it makes me feel like they don’t want Latino immigrants in this country

23

51

39

45

28

15

27

26

19

23

16

14

30

11

17

14

All

English

3rd Gen

Cuban

Repub

71%

66%

66%

51%

Latino views towards the GOP

20

Would you say the Republican Party is currently doing a good job reaching out to Latinos, that they don’t care that much, or that they are being hostile towards Latinos

Col A Col BMostly ignoring / doesn’t care 56 29Being hostile to Latinos 18 51

Romney TrumpNov 2012 Apr 2019

Source: NALEO/LD National Poll of Latino Reg Voters, April 2019 @LatinoDecisionsSource: Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll, November 2012

Latino views on immigration policy

21

Latino views on immigration policy

22Source: National Poll of Latino Reg Voters, June 2019 @LatinoDecisions

79 21

Central American should be given fair chance to apply for asylum

85 15

Congress should pass the DREAM Act with path to citizenship

81 19

Venezuelans fleeing Maduro should be allowed to apply for TPS

69 31

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CBP/Border Patrol treatment of migrant children is the real crisis

Latino vote for 2020 President

23Source: National Poll of Latino Reg Voters, June 2019 @LatinoDecisions

63

66

60

68

59

66

63

44

59

18

21

16

22

17

18

21

22

16

19

13

24

10

24

16

16

34

25

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

All

Women

Men

Spanish

English

Mexican

P.Rican

Cuban

So American

Democrat Undecided Trump

+44+53+36+58+35+50+47+10+34

Latino views towards the Dem field

24

I already know who I am voting for in the primary 29I have one candidate I like, but still making up my mind 20There are multiple candidates I am considering 28I have not heard enough from them to make my pick 13I have no clear favorite at this point, still deciding 7I don't really like any of the candidates so far 2

Based on what you have heard or read so far about the different Democratic candidates, which comes closest to your current preference

Source: NALEO/LD National Poll of Latino Reg Voters, April 2019 @LatinoDecisions

The Latino impact in 2020 Primaries

25

State Date % of all % of Dems Latino eligibleIowa Feb 3 6% 9% 148,000New Hampshire Feb 11 2% 3% 25,000Nevada Feb 22 20% 31% 415,000South Carolina Feb 29 4% 7% 110,000California Mar 3 30% 45% 7,613,000Texas Mar 3 31% 52% 5,594,000Massachusetts Mar 3 8% 12% 414,000North Carolina Mar 3 5% 8% 476,000Virginia Mar 3 6% 10% 427,000Colorado Mar 10 19% 29% 579,000Arizona Mar 17 25% 40% 1,205,000Florida Mar 17 21% 24% 3,146,000Illinois Mar 17 13% 20% 1,332,000

Percent of all eligible voters who are Latino; and percent of all expected Democrats who are LatinoSource: US Census CPS 2018 November supplement

The Latino Vote in 2020(And Lessons from 2018)

June 26, 2019

Matt A. Barreto@realMABarreto