the long and the short of it: the mis-attribution of economic transformation considered from the...
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En el marco del congreso internacional de economía social celebrado en EOI Sevilla y en colaboración con Goldsmiths College, Michael Blim, CUNY Graduate Center, presenta de la larga duración en los procesos de industrialización, ilustrándolo con el caso de la región italiana de la Marche (Las Marcas). 27_05_2010TRANSCRIPT
The Long and the Short of It: The Mis-Attribution of Economic Transformation Considered
from the Vantageof the Long Durée and What to
Do About It Now
Michael Blim
Professor of Anthropology
CUNY Graduate Center
Narrative and Meta-Narrative
• Case: Postwar Industrialization in Semi-Peripheral Region of Italy and Its Decline and Causes
• Meta-Narrative: Conjunctural or Structural Decline?
• The Enduring Significance and/or the Resurgence of the Deep Structures of the Long Durée? What to Do Now?
Italy and Marche regionItaly and Marche regionItaly and Marche regionItaly and Marche regionItaly and Marche region
4
Italy and Marche region
7
Territory and population
Area: 9.694,06 km2
Population: 1.553.063Density: 160 inhabitants/ km2
(Italian average density: 199 /Km2)
Provinces: 5 (Ancona, Ascoli Piceno, Fermo
Macerata, Pesaro Urbino)
Municipalities: 246Capital town: Ancona
(more than 100.000 inhabitants)
9
Districts*
The Marche region has the highestdensity of districts (27), which have
a relevant impact on the regionaleconomy. They represent 81,8% ofthe labour local systems and occupy73,4% of the regional workers. In2005 their contribution to regional
exports was of 56%
Food Leather, shoesWood-furniture ShipbuildingTextile, Garments MechanicsMusical instruments Silver
* Italian definition to indicate a group of enterprises,usually small and medium enterprises, located in a limitedterritory and specialized in one or more phase of thesame production process.
17
MainMain m manufacturing sectorssectors
ww mechanicalmechanical industryindustryww shipbuildingshipbuilding industryindustry
ww footwearfootwearww woodwood and and furniturefurniture
ww clothing-textileclothing-textileww foodfood
ww rubberrubber and and plasticsplastics
18
Marche RegionMain Manufacturing Sectors
S e c t o r s F i r m s E m p l o y e e s E x p o r t 2 0 0 7 E x p o r t 2 0 0 8
M e c h a n i c s 7 , 0 6 1 7 2 , 0 9 6 5 , 8 0 4 4 , 9 7 2
L e a t h e r - F o o t w e a r 4 , 5 4 4 3 5 , 9 3 5 2 , 1 1 0 2 , 0 2 5
W o o d - F u r n i t u r e 3 , 4 1 1 2 6 , 8 3 5 7 6 6 7 2 2
C l o t h i n g - T e x t i l e s 2 , 3 9 7 1 8 , 9 4 3 6 5 5 5 8 9
F o o d 2 , 7 1 9 1 5 , 2 5 5 1 8 4 1 9 2
R u b b e r - P l a s t i c s 6 4 3 9 , 2 9 3 3 9 6 3 7 2
O t h e r s 2 , 7 6 6 2 2 , 7 4 9 2 , 5 4 3 1 , 7 8 4
m l n €
Source:Istat
La Pronta Moda:
The “Ready to Wear” Shoe Industry in Today’s Italy
A World Industry Growsin Marche Region Small Towns
The Mezzadria Sharecropping System
From the Black Death (1347)
Through the Black Shirts and World War II
From the Mezzadria to Part-Time Farming:
Countryside Savings
Supports Rapid Industrialization
Meanwhile after Unification of Italy,
A Proto-Industry Emerges
Old Shoes: Shoemaking before World War II
The “Great Transformation:”Industrialization 1961+
From the Basement to the Factory
The Results
• Household Income Above National Average
• Increased Life Expectancy
• Near-Universal Home Ownership
• Increased Educational Attainment
• GINI Index: 0.20 (Italy 0.36, USA 0.47, Sweden 0.25)
Shoe Troubles Begin in 80s
• Long-Term Decline in Production• Long-Term Decline in Employment• Low Investment and Out-Sourcing to
Eastern Europe and China• Low Cost Competition from China, this
after Spain, Portugal, and Brazil• Euro Increases Costs and Eliminates Italy’s
Devaluation Option
Value Added Per Manufacturing Worker, Firms With 1-99 Workers, 2005
Marche Employment by Firm Size, 2005Compared with Italy and Central Italy
Marche Shoe Production, 2001-1009(Compared with Italy Shoe Production)
(Solid Line = Marche)
1980s Ideas for Growth At the Apex of the Boom
Grow!
• Commercialize• Aim for High Fashion• Branding
Industrial Winners Emerge
• Regional Restructuring: Larger, but not Large Firms Establish Footholds in World Markets through Branding and Marketing
• Small firms driven out of business or subordinated suppliers to bigger firms
• Medium sized survivors outsource to Balkans and license products to China
• Tod’s Shoes• Euro 700 Million
Turnover• 3,000 employees
Capital Deepening
• Investment in Machinery, Design, and Marketing
• Up the Value-Added Scale: Make Machines that Make Shoes
Corporatism
• Build Business Community and Help Centers
• Territorial Concession for Business Expansion
• Maintain United Front: Political Consensus
• Lobby Central Government for Loans to Firms
Celebrate Cultural Distinctiveness of Economic Success
• “Industrial Success without Dislocation”
• Emphasis on Small and Medium, Post-Fordist, Flexible Firms
• Revitalize Alfred Marshall’s Industrial Districts thesis
Find Unique Historical Roots
• Underscore the Cross-Class Cooperation of the Mezzadria
• Celebrate Familism as System of Labor and Accumulation
• Praise Gemeinschaft Base of Regional Solidarity
Shoe Decline Deepens, 2000-
• State Support for Unemployed and Under-employed for Shoes and Other “Traditional” Districts in Trouble
• Regional Industrial Policy Seeks New, High Technology Winners
• Policy Analysts Stress Spontaneous Redevelopment and Pluri-Activity Economic Districts via Accumulated “Social Capital”
The Bedevilments of the Long Durée
• Italian Economic Decline
• Resurgence of Southern European Semi-Peripheral Status
• Declining European Competitiveness in a Wide Range of Manufacturing
• Shift of Productive Innovation to China
Conjunctural Problems
• Gradual Disintegration of the Political Left since 1989
• Rapid Rise of Xenophobic Right via the Spread of the Northern League
• Weakening Support for Solidarity with Growing Immigrant Population (6% of Regional Population, 20% of industrial workers)
Ways Forward
Industrial Renewal and/or Transformation
• Governance Innovations such as Industrial District Planning Councils Working Poorly
• Private Investment Capital Scarce
• Italian Fiscal Crisis Shrinking Regional Budgets
• Region Frozen Out of Capital Markets
A Green Economy?
Some Green Progress
• Agricultural Conversion from Commodities to Organic and Specialty Products
• Value-Added Agro-Tourism and Territorial Dispersal Rather than High-Impact Coastal Expansion
• Regional Polytechnic University New Incubator of Knowledge Products
Develop a Stronger Social Economy
Slumping Social Economy
• Cooperative Movement Miniscule and Declining• Trade Unions Strong Only in State Sector• Italian and Regional Fiscal Crises Thwarting
Social Policy Innovations and Welfare Extensions• Political Class Unable to Leverage Corporatist
Sentiments and Organizational Structures• Red Region since 1990 now “Rose:” Center-Left
in Power and Significant Former Communist Forces out of Power
Braudel and a Russian Doll Problem for Industry and Region
• Industrialization Changed the Forces but not the Relations of Production of its Petty Capitalist Mode of Accumulation
• Industry and Region Nested within Successive Sets of Structural Constraints that are of the Long Durée
Long and Short-Term Outlook
• Long-Term Economy Delivered Income Equality without Help from Welfare State
• Private Capital Has Advantage in Shaping Economic Future: More Capital, More Qualified Labor
• Economic Reprise Likely to Increase Income Inequality