the market opportunity navigator
TRANSCRIPT
Prof. Dr. Marc Gruber, EPFL VP Innovation UBS Big on Growth Conference, February 8th, 2019
Copyright 2017 by Sharon Tal and Marc Gruber. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced
The Market Opportunity NavigatorYour business tool for identifying and capturing new valuecreation opportunities
The Future arrives quicker than many of us have thought:Price development of key technologies
Source: van Geest, Exoxo, 2018
Initially Today Scaling Effect
Sensors (esp. 3D-Lidar)
20’000 USD(2009)
79 USD(2014)
250xin 5 years
3D-Printing 40’000 USD(2007)
100 USD(2017)
400xin 10 years
Industrial Robots 500’000 USD(2008)
1000 USD (2017)
500xin 9 years
Drones 100’000 USD(2007)
100 USD(2017)
1000xin 10 years
Solar Energy 30 USD(1984)
0.002 USD(2018)
1200xin 34 years
Biotech(DNA-Profile of Human Being)
10’000’000 USD(2007)
100 USD(2018)
100’000xin 11 years
Your Technology Transformation Playbook
Degree of change
Refine
Refinement: Lower costs of delivering product or service
Enhance
Enhancement: Increase customer
experience and thereby differentiate
Grow / Disrupt
New Opportunities:develop new offerings and/or diversify your
business
Source: adapted from B. Büchel, IMD, 2018
Example 1: Mobile Phones
Example 1: Mobile Phones
Example 2: Photography - Technological Disruption & Redefining the Core
By researching and developing for many decades everything related to photographic film, from raw materials to processes to systems, Fujifilm became an expert in many different advanced materials technologies, including coatings, membranes, and organic compounds.
By combining these abilities with newly developed technologies, the company today creates unique materials that can be used in an extremely wide variety of applications, including desalination, gas membranes and astropore filters.
Example 2: Redefining the Core at Fujifilm
Entrepreneurial Imagination at its best
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INDUSTRY ARENA
Goal Positional advantage
Capturing territory
Measure ofsuccess
Market share Share of potentialopportunity space
Biggest threat Intraindustrycompetitive moves
Interindustry moves
Definition of target customers
Demographic or geographic
Behavioral
Key drivers Comparative price, quality
“Jobs to be done” in total customer experience
Likely Acquisition Behavior
With-in industry New capability acquisition, often across industry boundaries
From an “Industry Perspective” to an “Arena Perspective”
What is YOUR Opportunity Space?
Source: McGrath, 2013
Which market opportunities exist for us based on our existing competences and new technology?
What are the most attractive market opportunities for us?
What market opportunities should we focus on?
I
II
III
What is your Opportunity Space: “Where to Play”?
Three dedicated worksheets that lead to the three important outcomes:
Working with the Market Opportunity Navigator
WHAT IS IT?The set of potential market opportunities that you can address with yourresources and capabilities.
WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?Market opportunities can vastly differ in their attractiveness. A varied set ofmarket opportunities is an asset in and of itself, as it increases your chances offocusing on the most promising option. - basis for a Plan B, if required- un-locking new growth opportunities over time
HOW IS IT DONE?Assess the generic functionalities of your core technologyDiscover what other applications you can do with them for different types of customers
Use Worksheet 1 to identify potential market opportunities, and place them in the set
Identifying your Market Opportunity Set
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Market Opportunities: From entrepreneurial imagination to smart exploitation
Safe drones for operating indoors, in
complex and confined spaces, and in
contact with people
FlyAbility
Unique Accessibility
Collision tolerance (humans/ walls)Decoupled & light protection cageRoles on any surfaceOperates in a range of temperatures & pressures
Aviation Abilities
On-site video pilotingDark/ smoked/ dusty environmentsLimited fly duration
Imagery System
HD recordingThermal recordingReal time video streamingRemotely adjustablePost mission analysis
2015
Take 3 minutes to come up with different market opportunities for Flyability
FlyAbility
Unique Accessibility
Collision tolerance (humans/ walls)Decoupled & light protection cageRoles on any surfaceOperates in a range of temperatures & pressures
Aviation Abilities
On-site video pilotingDark/ smoked/ dusty environmentsLimited fly duration
Imagery System
HD recordingThermal recordingReal time video streamingRemotely adjustablePost mission analysis
Industrial Inspection
Oil & Gas Power plants
Maritime
Infrastructure Inspection
Bridges
Sewers
Security / Search and Rescue
Police Military
Fire fightersMinesVessels Fuel tanks
Pressure vessels
Storage tanks
Thermal boilers
Nuclear rooms
Wind
Intelligence surveillance
Rescue forces
Open air facilities
Indoors facilities
2015
FlyAbility 2015
Use Worksheet 2 to evaluate each market opportunity, and locate them on the map
WHAT IS IT?The Attractiveness Map allows you to visually depict the evaluation of your market opportunities, so you can better grasp their upsides and downsides, and compare them with each other.
WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?Determine your most attractive options, at a given point in time, so that you can make an informed decision about your primary market opportunity– one that relies less on intuition or suffers from the biases that we all have.
HOW IS IT DONE?The attractiveness of each market opportunity is based on the potential it bears and on the challenge in pursuing it.
Attractiveness Map
Take 3 minutes to assess one market opportunity for Flyability and place it on the Attractiveness Map
FlyAbility 2015
Power plants – thermal boilers
This is not hard science!
Copyright 2017 by Sharon Tal and Marc Gruber. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced
Scoring your market opportunities is both
a learning and a validation process.
Generate your key assumptions and set your key
action items for validating them.
Remember that the overall goal is not scoring in itself, but understanding the main upsides and downsides of your options!
FlyAbility 2015
Use Worksheet 3 to design your Agile Focus strategy, and mark it on the dartboard
WHAT IS IT?A strategy that balances the tension between focus and flexibility, byconsciously keeping open other market options: those that will enable you to mitigate risk and to increase value with minimum effort.
WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?It enables you to both hedge your risk and to leverage your competences, thus allocating your resources more effectively and avoiding a potentially fatal lock-in.
HOW IS IT DONE?• Choose your primary market opportunity• Analyze which other options are suitable for backup or growth, based on their
attractiveness and their relatedness to your primary market• Decide which options should be pursued now, kept open for later, or put in
storage
Exploiting Opportunities: The Agile Focus Dartboard
Flyability 2015
Power plants – thermal boilers
Maritime vessel inspectionOil & Gas Storage tanks Police surveillance
FlyAbility 2015
Manage Innovation in the Face of Uncertainty
The Agile Focus Strategy allows you to manage innovation with foresight while remaining agile.
Development of technology (modular!) File your patents
Recruit your employees
Choice of brand name
…
A powerful Suite of Business Tools that help you to ask the Right Questions and find the Most Valuable Answers
The Market Opportunity Navigator works seamlessly with the Design-Thinking Approach, the Business Model & Value Proposition Canvases, and the Lean Startup Methodology.
Design Thinking
If you want to learn more:
The book: ‘Where to Play’ (Gruber/Tal, 2017)
Free on-line course on edX
Contact me for other means of support: [email protected]
Join our mailing list / social media for updates: www.wheretoplay.co