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The Mediterranean Forecasting System: recent developmentsMarina Tonani (1), P. Oddo (1), G. Korres (4), E. Clementi (1), M. Drudi (1), M. Dedominics (1)J. Pistoia (2), A. Guarnieri (1), V. Romaniello (1), G. Girardi (1), A. Grandi (1), A. Bonaduce (2), S. Salon (5), A. Teruzzi( 5), G. Cossarin (5), G. Bolzon (5), C. Solidoro (5), A. Crise (5)and N. Pinardi (3)

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Gruppo di Oceanografia Operativa, Bologna, ItalyCentro EuroMediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, ItalyUniversity of Bologna, Department of Environmental Sciences, Ravenna, ItalyHellenic Centre for Marine Research, Athens, GreeceIstituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica sperimentale, Trieste, ItalyTopicsThe Mediterranean Forecasting System general description: components and productsSystem:High resolution atmospheric forcingAtmospheric pressureIncreased horizontal resolution biogeochemical component Products:New reanalysis Next evolution

The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) components

New! December 2013High resolution atmospheric forcingCOSMO-ME (from USAM)The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) : 1. High resolution atmospheric forcing

1. MFS - High resolution atmospheric forcing MFS-MyOMFS-RitmareNWPECMWFCOSMO-MEModelsNEMO+WW-IIINEMO+WW-IIIData Asssimilation3dVAR3dVAR# Forecast days103Horizontal res.1/16x1/161/16x1/16Vertical res.72 z (partial steps)72 z (partial steps)LOBCClim from GLOClim from GLO

http: //medforecast.bo.ingv.it

Operational 3d ForecastHighResolution (7km) NWP Forcing (COSMO-ME)Operational 10d ForecastLow Resolution NWP Forcing

MyOcean1. MFS - High resolution atmospheric forcing 6

Evaluation and inter-comparison of MFS systemsMarine Rapid Environmental Assessment MREA 20142-12 October 20148Med-currents R&D:2. NEMO model : Introduction of the Atm pressure

BarotropicBaroclinicccThe atmospheric pressure is usually neglected, however it can play an important role in specific regions of the world characterized by geometrical constrains like the Med Sea. The free-surface elevation response to atmospheric pressure can be composed of External Gravity Waves (EGWs).

EGWs require a very small time step time scale short compared to other processes

Two methods are implemented in NEMO to allow a longer time step solving the primitive equation in presence of EGWs: the so called filtered and the time-splitting method.

The system with atm. pressure and time splitting (V4) is better than the previous version (V3)2. MFS-V4 (with atm. Pressure) evaluation: Sea Level in VeniceModel: atm. pressure & time splitting parameterization V3 V4Data Assim.: SLA along track without DAC correction (J2, Cr2, S/A)

Med-MFC Med currents V4 evaluation: Mediterranean basin

J2 (J1)J2+Cr2+S/Al

REGIONWinter (Nov-April)Log10 surf. Chl (mg/m3)Summer (May-Oct)Log10 surf. Chl (mg/m3)MeanRMSMeanRMSNorthern West Med-0.0110.201-0.1720.129Southern West Med-0.0250.162-0.1290.107Tyrrhenian Sea0.0290.138-0.0830.093Southern Adriatic Sea-0.0410.140-0.1090.089Ionian Sea0.0390.148-0.0280.115Aegean Sea-0.0730.182-0.0780.139Levantine Sea0.0500.149-0.0040.109

SAT1/81/16EANs of surface chlorophyllIncreased horizontal resolution relevant in the reproduction of small scale horizontal structures in specific areas (e.g. coastal area lateral transport processes)3. MFS-BGC (increased res. 1/16): Chl validation

Improvement in reproducing sub-regional annual means of vertically integrated net primary production in western Mediterranean areas, other areas remain unaffected. Not enough observation to evaluate the high spatial frequency.Basin-scale net primary production is affected by increased resolution in mesoscale-active areas such as Alboran Sea

MEDALBColella (2006)R8 R16 Mediterranean (MED)90481075810359Alboran Sea (ALB)179116242120178101South West Med (SWW)113431498113581North West Med (NWM)115671237212274Levantine (LEV)722197649765__ 1/8__ 1/163. MFS-BGC (increased res. 1/16): Net Primary Production

SYSTEMPRODUCTSTIME RANGEUPDATE FREQ.Med-CurSIMULATION1-6 daysDaily (J-1J) ANALYSIS1999-ongoingweekly (J-15/J-2) FORECAST10 daysDaily (J/J+9)REANALYSIS1987-2012----Med-BioSIMULATION1-6 daysweekly (J-7J/J-1) ANALYSIS2013-ongoingweekly (J-7/J-1) FORECAST10 daysBi-weekly (J/J+9)REANALYSIS1999-2010----MFS-products

The DA significantly improves the description of the variability of surface chlorophyll4. MFS-BGC reanalysis (199-2010) with Chl assimilationNo DADA

Next steps: MED-PHYS:Improvement of model diffusion and advection parameterization (horiz. diff. and visc., tracer advection scheme and momentum equation)LOBC: connection with GLOBAL Mercator 1/12Assimilation of glider T/S profilesGODAE CLASS-4High resolution (hourly) products

MED- BIO:DA of surface Chl in coastal areas and DA of other variablesnon climatological light extinction coefficient

MODEL DOMAIN