The Netherlands and IIASA Highlights

(2008-2015)

May 2015

CONTENTS

1. Summary2. National Member Organization3. Some Leading Dutch Personalities Associated with

IIASA4. Research Partners5. Research Collaborations: Selected Highlights6. Capacity Building7. Further Information

SUMMARY (2008-2015)National Member Organization

Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)

Membership start date 1977

Research partners 45 organizations in the Netherlands

Areas of research collaborations

Research collaborations to tackle climate changeAdvancing energy and integrated assessment modeling in the NetherlandsGlobal Energy Assessment and the NetherlandsProjecting demographic change in the Netherlands Increasing flood resilience Smarter ways to manage the agricultural and forestry sectorsAnalyzing global and European water challengesThe future of fisheries and other evolutionary studies

Capacity building 21 doctoral students from the Netherlands have participated in IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program and its new Southern African version

Publication output 341 publications have resulted from IIASA-Dutch collaborations

NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATION• The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific

Research (NWO) • Professor Dr Jos J Engelen, Chairman of NWO,

is the IIASA Council Member for the Netherlands• Dr Josef Stuefer, Senior Policy Advisor, Earth &

Life Sciences/Policy Development, at NWO is the NMO Secretary for the Netherlands

SOME LEADING PERSONALITIES IN THE NETHERLANDS AND ASSOCIATED WITH IIASA

Tjalling Koopmans Peter Nijkamp

Leen Hordijk Pavel Kabat Paul Crutzen

Wim C Turkenburg

RESEARCH PARTNERS• 45 institutions in the Netherlands, including: • Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) • KWR Watercycle Research Institute• Leiden University• National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)• Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)• PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency • Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) • Royal Dutch Shell• University of Groningen• Utrecht University• VU University Amsterdam• Wageningen University

RESEARCH COLLABORATIONS

Selected Highlights:• Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2000-2100• Global Energy Assessment and the Netherlands• Projecting changing population in the Netherlands• European flood risk could double by 2050• Climate change, energy & water nexus• Better forest management could reduce forest fire danger in Europe• Identifying climate impact hotspots on crop yields, water availability,

ecosystems, and health• Improved fishing policies• Research into policy

Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium includes IIASA & Dutch partners:

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS 2000-2100

8

MESSAGE(IIASA)

AIM(NIES)

GCAM(PNNL)

IMAGE(PBL)

Source: van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Weyant, J. (eds) (2011). Special Issue: The Representative Concentration Pathways in Climatic Change. Climatic Change, 109(1-2).

GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND THE NETHERLANDS

9Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA

• 2006-12: GEA defines a new global energy policy agenda—one that transforms the way society thinks about, uses, and delivers energy.

• Significant Dutch contribution: – 5 Convening Lead Authors– 15 Lead Authors– 4 Contributors & 13 Reviewers

• One notable outcome: GEA guides targets of UN Secretary-General’s Sustainable Energy For All Initiative

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS

To update with Finland

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0

Netherlands - Base Year 2010

Population in Millions

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

16.6 Million FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDSSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0

Netherlands - Projections 2030 - SSP1

Population in Millions

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

17.9 Million FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDSSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0

Netherlands - Projections 2060 - SSP1

Population in Millions

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

19 Million FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS

To update with Finland

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0

Netherlands - Base Year 2010

Population in Millions

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

16.6 Million FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDSCONVENTIONAL DEVELOPMENT

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0

Netherlands - Projections 2030 - SSP5

Population in Millions

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

18.5 Million FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDSCONVENTIONAL DEVELOPMENT

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0

Netherlands - Projections 2060 - SSP5

Population in Millions

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

22.1 Million FemalesMales

Decrease in thermoelectric power generating capacity due to lack of cooling-water

Source: van Vliet MTH, Yearsley JR, Ludwig F, Vögele S, Lettenmaier DP & Kabat P (2012). Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change. Nature Climate Change.

CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY & WATER NEXUS

EUROPEAN FLOOD RISK COULD DOUBLE BY 2050

Jongman, B, S Hochrainer-Stigler, et. al. (2014). Increasing stress on disaster risk finance due to large floods. Nature Climate Change (letter). doi: 10.1038/nclimate2124

BETTER FOREST MANAGEMENT COULD REDUCE FOREST FIRE DANGER IN EUROPE

Nikolay Khabarov, Andrey Krasovskii, Michael Obersteiner, Rob Swart, Alessandro Dosio, Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz, Tracy Durrant, Andrea Camia, Mirco Migliavacca. 2014. Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe. Regional Environmental Change. September 2014. Doi: 10.1007/s10113-014-0621-0

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IDENTIFYING CLIMATE IMPACT HOTSPOTS ON CROP YIELDS, WATER AVAILABILITY, ECOSYSTEMS, AND HEALTH

Source: Piontek, F., Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M, et al. (2013): Multisectoral climate impacts in a warming world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

IMPROVED FISHING POLICIES• Northern Cod stock collapsed in

1992 and has not recovered since

• Heavy exploitation favors earlier maturation at smaller size

• We have documented a15% drop in age at maturation and a 30% drop in size at maturation

• Such evolutionary impactsof fishing are very slow and difficult to reverse

• New tool: Evolutionary Impact Assessments (Science 318:1247, Science 320:48)

Moratorium

1975 1992 200430

80

70

60

50

40

Early warning

Size at 50% maturationprobability at age 5 (cm)

Nature 428:932

RESEARCH INTO POLICY (Example)Dec 2013: European Commission proposed a new package of measures to reduce air pollution. Poor air quality is the number one environmental cause of premature death in the European Union. By 2030, the package will:

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• Avoid an extra 58,000 premature deaths• Protect an extra 123,000 km2 of ecosystems from nitrogen pollution

(more than half the area of Romania)• Save 19 000 km2 forests from acidification by the year 2030.

IIASA’s GAINS model guided European policymakers at every step of this process.

CAPACITY BUILDING• 20 doctoral students studying in the Netherlands have won places on

IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program since 2008.

Southern-African Young Scientist Summer Program: (SA-YSSP)• Johanna Schild (SA-YSSP ‘13/14 & VU

University Amsterdam) quantified water flow regulation within a semi-arid catchment and investigated the impact of implementing rainwater harvesting for more optimal water flow regulation.

CAPACITY BUILDING

FURTHER INFORMATION

IIASA www.iiasa.ac.at

Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO)

www.nwo.nl