the new colours of mobile vision mobile, may 2010)
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Knowledge. Passion. Innovation.
VisionMobile research
The New Colours of MobileTrends in mobile devices and software
knowledge. passion. innovation
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Industrialdesign
Hardware& chipsets
OEMs &ODMS
MobileOperators
Distributors Retailers
The mobile industry bipoleand the core value chain
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The mobile industry bipoleand the ecosystem forming around it
SIM CardOEMs
Industrialdesign
Hardwaredesigns
& chipsets
OperatingSystems
OEMs &ODMS
MobileOperators
Retailers
servicesmiddle-ware
UI middle-ware
SystemIntegrators
networkinfrastruct.
vendors
Distributors
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The mobile industry bipoleand the ecosystem forming around it
SIM CardOEMs
Industrialdesign
Hardwaredesigns
& chipsets
OperatingSystems
OEMs &ODMS
MobileOperators
Retailers
servicesmiddle-ware
UI middle-ware
SystemIntegrators
networkinfrastruct.
vendors
Distributors
Nokia Vodafone Brightpoint
Ericsson Gemalto
Carphone W.TietoQualcommIdem
Android Ikivo Myriad
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The mobile industry bipoleand the ecosystem forming around it
SIM CardOEMs
Industrialdesign
Hardwaredesigns
& chipsets
OperatingSystems
OEMs &ODMS
MobileOperators
Retailers
servicesmiddle-ware
UI middle-ware
SystemIntegrators
networkinfrastruct.
vendors
Distributors
70%of industryrevenue
15%of industry
revenue
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8/8/2019 The New Colours of Mobile Vision Mobile, May 2010)
6/16based on: Charles Fine: Clockspeed and Clayton Christensen: Skate to Where The Money Will Be
Horizontal industry structure Vertical industry structure
integrated componentsproprietaryinterfaceshighbarriers to entryall or nothing
modular componentsstandardised interfaceslowbarriers to entrymix and match
Background: how industries changeIndustries move between horizontal and vertical structures
Maturing product marketswhichfocus in flexibility, customisation
Emerging product marketswhich focus in performance, functionality
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Horizontal industry structure Vertical industry structure
1980sthe mobile industry
was born here
1999first ODMs
appear
2003outsourced
operating systems
2007open source
browsers andoperating systems
2007-8Nokia Ovi
service shopping spree
2005manufacturing for 1 in 3
phones outsourced
2002Club Nokia
2009OEM app stores
OEM sync services
2002first MNOcustomised devices
2008-9RIM, Apple:service+devicepropositions
Evolution of the handset businessfrom vertical to horizontal and back
1990-8standardisation of radio
and SIM interfaces
2010Apple:best-in-classexperience productsfrom chipsets toad networks
Product leapApple, RIM
2010WindowsPhone
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Horizontal player structure Vertical player structure
tier-1operators
tier-2/3operators
chipset OEMs
T1 handsetOEMs
Vertical propositions todayOEMs are at different stages towards verticalisation
1980sthe mobile industry
was born here
1999first MVNOs
and ODMsappear
2005MNO
basestationsharing
2004decline of walledgardens
2009MNOs open to social networks
open network APIs
2008MNO service
delivery opensup to s/w
developers
1990-8standardisation of radio
and SIM interfaces
2007open source
OEM browsers andoperating systems
2005manufacturing
for 1 in 3 phonesoutsourced
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Lead, innovate or assembleThe three role models for OEMs
Leaders: new product experiences(touch phone, touch tablet, car displays)
Innovators(industrial design, sensors, shelf-space)
Wannabees
Wannabees
Assemblers(supply chainefficiency)
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The evolution of handset strategiesand the four segments of value circa 2015
5% @500
1.5Bdevices
New product experiencesRole model: Apple
InnovatorsRole model: HTC
Mass producersRole model: Nokia & Mediatek
20% @300
25% @150
AssemblersRole model: Dell
50% @5037.5B
56B
90B
37.5B
220B
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Value Description Value Boundaries1990
Boundaries2010
Valuein 2015
Services e.g. voice, messaging, IM, Facebook, Zyb, 3rd party apps ..
network as a platform
Service delivery e.g. voice, text, web, WAP, software, on-device integration
industry on-device services
Service distribution which device and where on the device
service inventory
Device design industrial design, packaging design
UI design design of the entire user interface
new productexperiences
Core apps core apps (dialler, call logs, menus, idle screen, inbox)
Operating system software middleware and hardware interfaces
industry
Hardware platform integrated hardware reference designs
out-of-the-box
solutions
Chipset IP for apps processors, radio processors, graphics, etc
Manufacturing component sourcing and assembly
supply chain mngmt
OEMs
OEMs
MNOs
MNOs
The evolution of valueacross the software+services stack
chipsets
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The evolution of revenue modelsfor software vendors
post-salespre-load
cloud
- software IP & services- hardware IP- systemware- industrial design
- content dev. tools- service design tools- developer tools- OEM production tools
- VAS and SDPs- advertising- content & app stores- network capabilities
- service distribution- inventory leasing- on-device analytics- service management
Value
Value Value
Value
Revenue models Revenue models
- per activation- per update- per inventory/day- per user segment
Revenue models
- per unit- per platform- per model/design- per site
Revenue models
- per user, CPC/CPM- revenue share- per segment/reach- per follower
- per developer seat- per module- per site
device
from horizontal royaltiesto vertical productisation
from pre-load royaltiesto post-load revenues
from pre-load royalties topost-sales activation
from pre-loadto certification revenues
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Middleware
Operating System
Apps,themes/UIs,services
$0.2 $20m
$0.5 $5m
$2
$1m
revenue cost tobuild
value line
Front-end apps
$3 $100m
Strategies for mobile software vendorsin the pre-load business
1 Move up the stack
per user
per unit
per unit
per unit
bottom-up
0.25 * 5% + 0.10 * 45% + 0.05 * 50%
Market for UI middleware
top-down
10 T1 OEMsCeiling of10M from each
100M market per component
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Strategies for mobile software vendorsin the pre-load business
2 Move upstream ordownstream
pointsolution
platform
3rd partypoint solutions
(solves particular problem) (facilitates 3rd party solutions)
3 From point solutionto enabler
Chipsetvendors
Distributors
Systemintegrators
ODMs OEMsMobile
Operators
upstream downstream
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Strategies for mobile software vendorsin the pre-load business
5 Same product, new markets
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mobile
handsets
Red ocean
auto-
motive
home
entert/nt
Blue ocean
4 From pre-load topost-sales revenue
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post-sales
-6
high-pressure
pre-load
(months)
handset
softwarelifecycle
NREper-unit
per-useper-active-userrevenue share
revenue
model
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