the nuclear non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament1995 –bangkok treaty non-proliferation...
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{
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation,
Arms Control and Disarmament
Laura Rockwood
Executive Director, VCDNP
Conflict Prevention through Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-proliferation in the OSCE Area
Vienna International Center6 May 2019
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July 1945: Trinity Test
1938: Discovery of uranium fission: Lise Meitner & Otto Hahn
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6 Aug. 1945: “Little Boy”
9 Aug. 1945: “Fat Man”
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The First Twenty-Five Years: Creation of the IAEA and its Safeguards System
1945
US – 1st
and only
use of
nuclear
weapons
1946
Baruch Plan
USSR
NW test
1949
UK NW
test
1952
1953
“Atoms for
Peace”
Proposal
IAEA
established
1957
France
NW test
China
NW test
19641960
1st IAEA SG
system
(INFCIRC/26)
1961
Expansion of SG
system
(INFCIRC/66, Rev.1
& Rev.2)
1968
NPT
opened
for
signature
Latin
American
NWFZ
Treaty
opened
for
signature
1967
1965-68
EURATOM
established
UNGA
resolution 1:
Atomic Energy
Commission
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Exercise unilateral restraint in sharing technology
AND
Create independent international verification body
AND
Develop system for verifying use of suppliedmaterial and items
Perceived Risk?
Misuse of supplied material and items
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• UN General Assembly resolution I/1 (1946): UN
Atomic Energy Commission
• 1946: Acheson-Lilienthal Rerpot; Baruch Plan
• International ownership and operation of
“dangerous” nuclear activities: Atomic
Development Agency
• US to give up nuclear weapons after controls in
place
• UN AEC effectively defunct by 1949 with nuclear
test by USSR
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• US “Atoms for Peace” proposal in UNGA – 1953
• Statute of the IAEA in force 1957
• Autonomous inter-governmental organization
• Unique relationship with UN Security Council
• Not a UN organization
• 170 Member States
• Authority to implement
safeguards
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• Membership in IAEA does not require acceptance of safeguards
• IAEA safeguards possible in non-Members (and in non-States)
• DPRK
• Taiwan, China
• Requires consent of State
• Voluntary undertaking
• Security Council Chapter VII
• Safeguards Agreement
IAEA safeguards
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•Item Specific (INFCIRC/66-type)
• India, Israel and Pakistan
•Voluntary Offer Agreements (VOAs)
• The 5 NPT NWSs: China, France, Russia, UK, US
•Comprehensive Safeguards Agreements
(CSAs) (INFCIRC/153-type)
• In force for 175 of the 186 NNWSs
Types of safeguards agreements
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WEAPONIZATION
Nuclear-related
infrastructure: research
centers and laboratories
without nuclear material
HEU
PU
Spent Fuel Storage
Fuel
Fab.Reactors and CAs
Reprocessing
Heavy Water Production
MiningOre
Concen-
tration
Con-
version
Enrichment
Critical Path to Weapons-Usable Material
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SG Coverage: Item-Specific Agreements
Reactors and CAs
PU
Reprocessing
Heavy Water Production
Fuel Fab.
Con-version
Nuclear-related infrastructure: research centers and laboratories
without nuclear materialHEU
Spent Fuel Storage
MiningOre
Concen-tration
Enrichment
WEAPONIZATION
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International Arms Control: First Steps
• 1960: Ten Nation Committee on Disarmament
• Comprehensive approach to disarmament;
equal East/West representation
• 1961-1969: Eighteen-Nation Disarmament
Committee
• Addition of Non-Aligned countries
• October 1963: Partial Test Ban Treaty in force
• October 1964: China conducts nuclear test
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Regional Arms Control: First Steps
• 1958: Costa Rica proposes regional arms control
agreement
• October 1962: Cuban Missile Crisis
• April 1963: Declaration of Denuclearization of
Latin America
• February 1967: Treaty of Tlatelolco opened for
signature
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1967 Tlatelolco TreatyNon-proliferation and
peaceful use undertakings IAEA safeguards on all
nuclear activitiesBan on NW testingOPANALProtocols:
States with territories in the zone
NWSs – negative security assurances
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The NPT
Eighteen-Nation Disarmament Committee, Geneva 1965-1967
Bilateral US/USSR negotiations
August 1967: US/USSR identical drafts
Opened for signature 1968
Entered into force 5 March 1970
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Israel
bombs Iraqi
reactor at
Tuwaitha
1971
INFCIRC/153:
Approved for
NPT SG
Agreements
1972
1st NPT
SG Agreement
enters into force
1974
India tests
“peaceful
nuclear device”
1981
1985
DPRK
becomes
party to
NPT
1990
1990
Iraq
invades
Kuwait
4th NPT
Review
Conference
1990
IAEA starts
“strengthening
SG”
NPT
enters
into
force
1970
1971
NPT Zangger
Committee
(Trigger List
published in
1974
INFCIRC/209)
1974
Nuclear
Suppliers Group
(Guidelines
published in
1978
INFCIRC/254)
1986
South
Pacific
NWFZ
Treaty
EIF
Chernobyl
1986
The Following Two Decades:The Comprehensive Safeguards System
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Challenges of the 1970’s – 80’s
Perceived Risk?
Misuse of indigenous nuclear fuel cycle
Develop safeguards system for verifying supplied and produced nuclear material in a State
AND
Require export controls for nuclear material and specialized single use equipment and material
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The NPT: Three Pillars
Non-Proliferation
DisarmamentPeaceful
Uses
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The NPT
Non-Nuclear-Weapon States (NNWSs)•Not to acquire nuclear weapons or other nuclear
explosive devices (Art. II)•Accept safeguards on all nuclear material (Art. III.1, 4)
All States Parties•Export controls: nuclear material; single use items
(Art. III.2)•Facilitate exchange of technology (Art. IV.2)
•Pursue negotiations on nuclear disarmament (Art. VI)
Nuclear-Weapon States (NWSs)
•Not to provide nuclear weapons or nuclear explosive devices to NNWSs (Art. I)
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The Structure and Content of Agreements
between the Agency and States required in
connection with the Treaty on the Non-
Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
INFCIRC/153 (Corr.)
Comprehensive Safeguards Agreements
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INFCIRC/153, para. 1
… to accept safeguards, in accordance with the terms of the Agreement, on all source or special fissionable material in all peaceful nuclear activities within the territory of the State, under its jurisdiction or carried out under its control anywhere ...
CSA: State’s Undertaking
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Timely detection of diversion of significant
quantities of nuclear material to “the manufacture
of nuclear weapons or of other nuclear explosive
devices or for purposes unknown”
Deterrence of diversion by risk of early detection
CSA: IAEA’s Role
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WEAPONIZATION
MiningOre
Concen-
tration
Heavy Water Production
Nuclear-related
infrastructure: research
centers and laboratories
without nuclear material
Con-
version
Fuel
Fab.Reactors and CAs
Spent Fuel Storage
Reprocessing
PU
HEU
Enrichment
Routine SG Coverage - CSAs
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1985 - Treaty of RarotongaNon-proliferation &
peaceful use undertakingsComprehensive safeguards
as a condition of supplyBan on dumping of
radioactive waste3 Protocols:
States with territories in zone
Negative security assurances
No testing of nuclear explosives
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Zangger Committee (1971) – NPT suppliers
•Trigger List (1974) – Nuclear material and single use items triggering safeguards
(INFCIRC/209)
Nuclear Suppliers Group (1975) – Allmajor suppliers
• List of single use items and related technology (1978)
(INFCIRC/254)
Export Controls – NPT & Non-NPT
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• Limited routine access – frequency and
locations
• Little attention to small quantities of
material
• Focus on declared materials (correctness)
• No assurances of absence of undeclared
nuclear material and facilities
(completeness)
Limitations in Traditional SG
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Limited scope and conditions:
• No requirement for full-scope SG
• No controls on dual-use items or items relevant
to weaponization
Limited information exchange:
• No procedures for exchanging information on
export denials
• No provision of information to the IAEA
Informal, non-binding
Limitations in Export Controls
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1990: The War That Changed Everything
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The Next Decade:Strengthening Safeguards
IAEA
discovery
of Iraq’s
nuclear
weapons
programme
1991
Iraq:
UNSC
res.
687
1991
1991
South
Africa
concludes
NPT SGA
1992
DPRK: NPT
SGA enters
into force
1993
1993
1993
1993
1998
1995
IAEA’s
Programme
93+2
initiated
DPRK:
IAEA
detects
incon-
sistencies
DPRK: non-
compliance;
report to
UNSC
NPT
extended
indefinitely
Iraq: IAEA
inspectors
withdrawn
1997
South
Africa:
declares
dismantled
6 weapons
Model
Additional
Protocol
approved
(INFCIRC/
540)
1994
US/DPRK
Agreed
Framework
1998
India,
Pakistan
NW tests
1995
“93+2”
to
Board
South-East Asian
NWFZ Treaty
1996-7
6th NPT
Review
Conf.
2000
African NWFZ Treaty
CTBT
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TUWAITHAActivities Declared Prior to 1991
1034
24
19
21
33
2320
35
22
32
78
26
25
29
36
3130
27
2811
1
2
3
6
9
5
39
40
68
72
69
70 71
73C
73B
73A
74
66
3837
12
41
65
64
13
14
67
76
63
7978
80
54
49
46
48
4
17
16
47
44
4243
45
51
86
57
5315 50
59
61
56
58
52
55 87
83
82
62
81
84
60
85
89
88
18
90
ITFuel Fab Laboratory
IR-5000 Reactor
Tamuz 2 Reactor
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TUWAITHAClandestine Nuclear Weapons Activities
1034
24
19
21
33
2320
35
22
32
78
26
25
29
36
3130
27
2811
1
2
3
6
9
5
39
40
68
72
69
70 71
73C
73B
73A
74
66
3837
12
41
65
64
13
14
76
7577
63
7978
80
54
49
46
48
4
17
16
47
44
4243
45
51
86
57
5315 50
59
61
56
58
52
55 87
83
82
62
81
84
60
85
89
88
18
90
IT
Laser enrichment research & support
Tritium activities,HEU recovery (crash programme)
Theoretical weaponization activities
Planned U metal production
U metal production
Clandestine isotope irradiation
R&D UF4 & UF6 production
EMIS activities
Undeclared reprocessing
Weaponization: theoretical computations
Chemical enrichment R&D
UCL4 production lab
Weaponization explosives; neutron initiator
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Challenges of the 1990’s
Ensure verification of all nuclear material and activities: declared and the absence of undeclared
AND
Expand export controls to cover dual use items
Perceived Risk?
Undeclared nuclear material and activities
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INFCIRC/153, para. 2
… the Agency’s right and obligation to ensure that safeguards will be applied … on ALL source or special fissionable material in all peaceful nuclear activities within the territory of the State, under its jurisdiction or carried out under its control anywhere ...
CSAs: Shifting Perceptions
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Assurances of Correctness and
Completeness of a State’s
Declarations
Redefined Objective
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1991-1997: Challenging Years
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Model Protocol Additional
to the Agreement(s) between State(s) and the
International Atomic Energy Agency for the
Application of Safeguards
INFCIRC/540 (Corr.)
Model Additional Protocol
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WEAPONIZATION
ReprocessingMiningOre
Concen-
tration
Con-
version
Enrichment
Fuel
Fab.Reactors and CAs
Spent Fuel Storage
PU
Heavy Water Production
HEU
Nuclear-related
infrastructure: research
centers and laboratories
without nuclear material
SG Coverage – CSA and AP
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INFCIRC/254:
• Part 1 (1978): “EDP” items, and technology transfer
• Part 2 (1992): Dual-use equipment, material & technology
• Conditions:
“Full scope” SG as condition for future supplies (1992)
Exchange within NSG of notifications of denials
INFCIRC/539 (Rev.6): Outreach activities
1997: “The Nuclear Suppliers Group: Its Origins, Role and
Activities” – revised in 2000, 2003, 2005, 2009, 2012 & 2015
Export Control Developments
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1995 – Bangkok TreatyNon-proliferation &
peaceful use undertakingsComprehensive safeguards
as a condition of supplyBan on dumping of
radioactive wasteProtocol:
Negative security assurances – not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons in the zone
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1996 – Pelindaba TreatyNon-proliferation &
peaceful use undertakingsProhibits nuclear weapons
researchRequires nuclear weapons
programme rollbackProhibits attacks on nuclear
facilities3 Protocols:
Negative security assurances No testing nuclear explosives States with territories in zone
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9/11
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The Last Decade
Iraq: IAEA
resumes SC
inspections
2002 2003
DPRK
rejects Agreed
Framework;
expels IAEA
inspectors
2002
Iran: non-
compliance
reported to SC
2002
2003
DPRK
announces
withdrawal
from NPT
2003
Iraq: IAEA
inspectors
withdrawn
2003
Iran:
discovery of
undeclared
enrichment
programme
7th NPT
Rev. Con.
DPRK:
enrichment
programme
for weapons
2001
2004
Libya: NW
programme
ROK/Egypt:
undeclared nuclear
activities
2005
UNSC
resolution
1540:
non-State
actors9/11
2003
2006
DPRK
announces
NW test
2007
DPRK:
IAEA
returns
Syria:
bombing of
Dair Alzour
2009
DPRK
expels
IAEA
US/India Deal
PSI
N. Terrorism
Convention
EIF of
Pelindaba
& CANWFZ
Treaties
UNSC
resolution
1887
Trilateral
Initiative
completed
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Challenges of the Last Decade
Improve physical security of nuclear material &
facilities and other radioactive materials
AND
Ensure effective domestic & trans-border
controls
Perceived Risk?
Non-State actors & radiological dispersal devices
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•Nuclear safeguards:•Detection and deterrence of diversion of
nuclear material by a State
•Nuclear security:•Detection and deterrence of misuse of
nuclear material & other radioactive substances by non-State actors
Safeguards vs. Security
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2002-2009: More Challenges
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Nobel Peace Prize – 2005
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2006 – SemipalatinskNon-proliferation &
peaceful use undertakingsRequires a CSA & APBans testing of nuclear
weapons or nuclear explosive devices
Environmental rehabilitation of territories contaminated due to past activities
Protocol: Negative security assurances:
not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons
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1992 Mongolia NWFZ1992 – Declared itself a
single-State NWFZ1998 – UN General
Assembly recognized NWFZ status
2000 – Mongolia law on its NWFZ status
2012 – Declaration with NWSs on nuclear weapon free status & negative security assurances to Mongolia
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{
56% of Earth’s land area of 149 million km2; 60% of 195 States; 39% of world’s population
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The Present and Beyond …
1st Nuclear
Security Summit
2010
2010
8th NPT
Rev. Con.
2010
Iran
UNSC
Res. 1984
Fukushima
Daiichi
Accident
2011
Syria
reported to
UNSC
2013
2011
DPRK’s 3rd
nuclear
weapon test
Iran Report - PMD Iran Deal (JCPOA)
2015
2016
DPRK’s 4th &
5th nuclear
weapon tests
2017
DPRK’s 6th
nuclear
weapon test
Future of
JCPOA?
Treaty on Prohibition of
Nuclear Weapons
2018
DPRK Talks?9th NPT
Rev. Con.
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• 1995 NPT Review & Extension Conference: • resolution on WMD zone free in Middle
East• 2010 NPT Review Conference breakthrough:• UN SG to convene conference in 2012• Facilitator appointed• No conference convened
• 2015 NPT Review Conference: extremely contentious• Middle East WMD free zone• Disarmament
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2010 NPT Review Conference• Expressed deep concern at “catastrophic
humanitarian consequences” of use of nuclear weapons; reaffirmed need for States to comply with applicable international law, including humanitarian law
Humanitarian Conferences:• Oslo, 2013; Nayarit, 2014; Vienna, 2014• Humanitarian Pledge, 2015 – 117 States• Open Ended Working Group, 2016 – 3 sessions• UN 1st Committee resolution, 2016• Negotiations – March, June, July 2017
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Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
20 September 2017
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Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
14 July 2015
Roadmap for Clarification:
Past & present outstanding SG issues - 15 Dec. 2015
Implementation Day
Sanctions lifted - 16 Jan. 2016
US withdrawal
8 May 2018
The New Iran Negotiations:2013 – 2016
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PRAGUE 2009
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Challenges of New Millennium?
Perceived Risks:Nuclear black markets – non-State actors
US/Russian relations – a new Cold War?
Disarmament slowdown – failure of NWSs to fulfil obligations under Article VI of the NPT
JCPOA - possible collapse
DPRK – ???
And the implications for the 2020 NPT Review Conference …..
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Today's Regime …
Security Council
IAEA Safeguards
SecurityDisarmament
Export controls
Security Assurances
Safety Counter Proliferation
NPT & NWFZ Treaties
Assurances of Supply
Tomorrow's Regime …