The Ocean’s Role The Ocean’s Role in Climate Changein Climate Change

Responding to the Kyoto ProtocolResponding to the Kyoto ProtocolClimate Change Action Fund (CCAF) Climate Change Action Fund (CCAF)

InitiativesInitiatives• Reduce greenhouse

gas emissions.• Reduce scientific

uncertainties, oceans are a major factor.

• Precautions where appropriate.

• Assess adaptation strategies.

Global Warming Has BegunGlobal Warming Has Begun

• 10 warmest years within the last 160 years have just recently occurred.

• 1997 used to be the warmest over this timeframe, 1998 was significantly warmer.

• losses from weather related disasters are escalating, to $75 billion (US) in 1998.

• IPCC suggests “a discernable human influence on global climate”.

• Impacts of climate change on ecosystems and people are likely to be severe

• Oceans are a critical part of the climate system (ocean circulation, greenhouse gases)

• Variations in ocean climate affect all Canadians • The oceans role in the climate

system must be better monitoredand understood to reduce

uncertainties in climate forecasts

Key IssuesKey Issues

Climate Change ImpactsClimate Change Impacts

Fresh Water Species

Sea Ice

ForestFires

Lake Levels

Drought

Fish Limit

New Species

Storms

Invertebrates

Groundfish

Icebergs

– sea levels, sea ice– ocean temperature circulation, etc.

– fisheries species and distributions– coastal communities

• Land Environment– increased drought, floods, forest fires– changed hydrology affecting energy, transportation, tourism

• Marine Environment

Oceans are the Flywheel of the Oceans are the Flywheel of the Climate SystemClimate System

71% of Earth’s Surface

• The oceans are the system’s flywheel, retaining and moving vast amounts of heat.

• Oceans cover 71% of the Earth’s surface.

• Oceans remove up to 1/3 of the CO2 produced by burning fossil fuels

• Oceans, atmosphere, land and snow & ice form the climate system.

Heat

CO2

OC

EA

N

A

TM

OS

PH

ER

E

S

PA

CE

El Niño shows how Ocean El Niño shows how Ocean Changes affect Canadian ClimateChanges affect Canadian Climate

• Map shows 1997/98 fully developed El Niño.

• Changes are not uniform across Canada.

Average Jet Stream

El Niño Year Jet Stream

• El Niño results in:– warmer coastal BC waters.– cooler north Atlantic waters.– deflected jet stream, which in turn affects weather all across Canada.

Projected Effect of Global Warming on Sockeye Salmon

• Lowest red line is the 1995 southern limit of sockeye salmon.

• Highest red line shows the projected southern limit of sockeye salmon by 2094 when greenhouse gases will have more than doubled.

• Scenario suggests that ocean habitat of sockeye may not even include any of the Pacific Ocean.

Sudden Climate ShiftsSudden Climate Shifts• The ocean conveyor presently heats the North Atlantic.• Ice cores reveal past rapid temperature shifts. • Must reduce scientific uncertainties of climate “surprises”, e.g.

ocean conveyor change or shutdown.

Ocean ClimateOcean ClimateWe are not doing enoughWe are not doing enough

• Inadequate Monitoring– sections (sampling lines)

– stations (sampling points)

– sea level

• Minimal Research Program– circulation (heat engine)

– CO2 (oceanic uptake)

– impacts assessment (aquatic resources)

Benefits of Ocean Monitoring Benefits of Ocean Monitoring and Climate Forecastsand Climate Forecasts

• Economic impacts: Seasonal Forecasting

– energy consumers, mariners, farmers• Economic decisions: Infrastructure Design

– buildings, roads, bridges (e.g. Confederation Bridge design for climate change), coastal facilities

• Economic Decisions: Adaptation Strategies

– alternative resource development (fishers, foresters, farmers)

• Health and Safety of Canadians

– health risk assessment (disease)

– flood and drought seasonal predictions

National Implementation StrategyNational Implementation StrategyOceans ComponentOceans Component

• enhanced ocean observations• refine ocean components of

coupled ocean/atmosphere circulation models

• strengthen regional climate modeling

• develop operational ocean forecasts

• undertake impact studies - fisheries, etc.

SummarySummary

• Living marine resources will be heavily impacted by climate change.

• Improved climate prediction will be impossible without better:

– ocean measurements and characterization.

– understanding ocean/atmosphere interactions and feedbacks.

• Improved climate prediction is essential to support policy decisions.

• Ocean climate needed as part of a National Implementation Strategy

Projected Summer Sockeye Salmon Distribution by 2060

Normal

2xCO2