The Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction

Today’s overview

• History of WMD - Chemical, Bio, Nuke

• International Treaties

• Nuclear Weapons Today

• North Korea, Iraq, Pakistan

• Iran?

World War I

Chemical• Non-living

• First use in Western World - Peloponnesian War

• Rediscovered in Renaissance

Chemical - Modern uses

• Iraq-Iran War

• “Is military research hazardous to veteran’s health?” (1994) US Senate

• Japan - Aum Shinrikyo

• Russian forces - Moscow theater hostages

The Chemical Threat

160 1,05557823.623.6

40,000

31,000

605304

27,771

16,317

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Albania India Libya Russia South Korea US

Remaining Stockpile

Declared Stockpile

Chemical Stockpiles

Units in Metric Tons

Source: Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons December 2006 implementation report, Report of the OCPW on the Implementation of the Convention of the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction in 2005.

Biological

• Living organisms– Anthrax

• Cold War focused on retaliation• A Poor Nation’s WMD• Iraq• Nearly impossible to detect• Dual-use technologies

The Biological Threat

• H5N1/Bird Flu• 1918 “Spanish Lady”

International Treaties

• 1899 Hague Conference– Navy Captain Alfred Thayer Mahan - "the

inventiveness of Americans should not be restricted in the development of new weapons."

• 1925 Geneva Protocol– Bans chemical & biological weapons– Nothing on production, storage, or transfer

• 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention

Chemical Weapons ConventionBans: * Developing, producing, acquiring, stockpiling, or retaining

chemical weapons.

* The direct or indirect transfer of chemical weapons.

* Chemical weapons use or military preparation for use.

* Assisting, encouraging, or inducing other states to engage in CWC-prohibited activity.

* The use of riot control agents “as a method of warfare.”

–Didn’t ratify/sign: Bahamas, Congo, Dominican Republic, Guinea-Bissau, Israel, Myanmar, Angola, North Korea, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Somalia, Syria

Biological Weapons Treaties• 1972 Biological Weapons Convention

– 158 states– Bans creation & storage, but not usage– Also applies to private parties

• Reviews in early 1990s, US says “not in national interest” before 9/11.

– 2003: National mechanisms for security– 2004: Enhancing international response to

disease/outbreaks– 2004: strengthens detection & capabilities– 2005: codes of conduct for scientists

Parties to Bio Weapons Treaty (2007)

The Manhattan Project• University of

Chicago• Oakridge TN (K-

25, Y-12, S-50) for U-235

• Hanford WA for Plutonium

• Los Alamos NM for Bomb Assembly & Test

The Manhattan Project

Separating U235 & U238•Gaseous Diffusion•Electromagnetic Separation•Thermal Diffusion•Centrifuge Separation

YF12 Calutron Operation - Oakridge

Nuclear Weapons

• First known nuclear test was done in New Mexico on July 16th 1945

• How many tests to date?

• US bombs Hiroshima & Nagasaki

• USSR tests weapon in 1949

• Hydrogen bomb

• Only countries to test weapons: US, Russia, UK, France, India, China, Pakistan, and North Korea (possibly South Africa).

• Deterrence?

How to Build “the Bomb”

Fat Man

NPT

• 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty– Prohibits all above ground testing

• 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty– Except: India, Israel, Pakistan, North Korea– Non-proflieration, Disarmament, Peaceful

Use– IAEA

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

1968

• Ratified by 188 states

• Atoms for Peace 1. IAEA – dual mission of prevention &

promotion

2. The Fissile Bank - Failure

3. Goal of disarmament - Failure

• The “Big Five” (haves) v. “have-nots”

Giving up nukes

• South America - Treaty of Tlatelolco (‘67)– Weapons-Free Zone– Gave up programs: Argentina & Brazil– Nobel Prizes to creators of treaty

• South Africa– Relinquishes weapons after apartheid

Nuclear Stockpiles

Loose Nukes

• Cold War “Near Misses”

• Deterrence and Balance of Power

• The Former Soviet Union: Nunn/Luger

• A “Dirty Bomb”

• Military Utility of Nuclear Weapons

• Regime Security

• AQ Khan and the Black Market

Chemical & Biological Weapons

• Easier to make• Easier to deploy• Harder to detect• Harder to fix blame• Can be used in an

asymmetrical context• Therefore, harder to

deter

WMD - Case Studies

North Korea, Iraq, Pakistan & Iran

Nuclear State of the World: N. Korea

• Withdrew from NNPT in 1985• Clinton Agreement• The North Korean

“Detonation” on Oct. 9th 2006• Bush Agreement

The New Regime

North Korea (Kaplan)

N. Korea - Potential Disaster

• -Formidable Threat: 1.2 million soldiers, 100,000 elite forces, one of the world’s largest chemical and biological weapons arsenals.

• -Deployment of weapons of mass destruction: Believed to have around 10 nuclear warheads, the likelihood of their use increases with greater regime instability.

Potential Disaster (con’t)

• -Refugee Crisis: South Koreans and Chinese fear an influx of refugees more than NK missiles.

• -“Mother of all relief operations”: The US could be presented with the greatest stabilization effort since WWII, and have to coordinate operations with the Chinese PLA.

Potential Disaster (cont’d)

• -Regime Collapse: “collapse of the chain of command of the KFR could be more dangerous than the preservation of it, particularly when one considers control over WMD.” -Colonel Maxwell, who explains:

• a.) We might have to fight the remnants of the military while conducting relief efforts.

• b.) The elites of the military structure may form the basis of an insurgency in North Korea.

Kim Jung Il’s & Kim Jong Un’s Objectives

• 1: Control the Military – particularly the elites who can control the forces under them.

• 2: Split the alliance between South Korea and the U.S. Support in SK for US intervention has dwindled, and many may rally to nationalist calls for the US not to interfere.

• 3: Manipulate the South Korean left.• -by inflicting sufficient damage to press them to seek a

negotiated settlement.• -provoke American attacks to cause them to place blame on

the US for the violence.

Today: NKorea orders UN nuclear inspectors from plant

• VIENNA, Austria - N. Korea barred U.N. nuclear inspectors from its main plutonium reprocessing plant Wednesday and within a week plans to reactivate the facility that once provided the fissile material for its atomic test explosion, a senior U.N. nuclear inspector said. The North ordered the removal of the U.N. seals and surveillance equipment from the Yongbyon plant, a sign it is making good on threats to restart a nuclear program that allowed it to conduct a test explosion two years ago. But the North's moves could be motivated by strategy as well. It could use the year it would take to restart the North's sole reprocessing plant to wrest further concessions from the U.S. and other nations seeking to strip it of its atomic program. Coming amid reports that that their leader suffered a stroke, the nuclear reversal has fueled worries about a breakdown of international attempts to coax the North out of its confrontational isolation with most of the rest of the world.

• The accord hit a snag in mid-August when the U.S. refused to remove North Korea from its list of states that sponsor terrorism until the North accepts a plan to verify a declaration of its nuclear programs that it submitted earlier.

• Regional BOP– Centers on China– Threat to Japan?

• Cost to South Korea

• Kim Jong Un?

Reunification

Iraq

Iraq

• Uses poison gas in Iran-Iraq War, also against Kurds• Iraq in the 90’s.

1991: Gulf War ends, UN weapons inspectors begin work in the Iraq.

1992-94: Iraq largely disarmed of WMD’s, while retaining some research and development capabilities

1995-96: Saddam’s remaining WMD programs wind down. Period of weakened internal security and political turmoil. High-level officials defect.

1998: Saddam kicks out weapons inspectors, arousing international suspicion.

What we thought (Pollock• Iraq continues WMD programs in defiance

of sanctions.• Iraq will have a nuke w/i a decade or 1 year

if it can acquire fissile materiel from abroad.• Iraq has invested heavily in missile tech• Iraq has renewed production of chemical

agents and it researching weaponization of bio agents

What we now know to be true!• Iraq had preserved some nuclear

technology, but had not restarted its nuclear program.

• No chemical weapons or bio weapons were produced, but some research was carried out and 1 bio lab was maintained clandestinely.

• Saddam was most aggressive in pursuit of ballistic missile technology.

• Overselling the case

• Correcting intelligence problems

Why we overestimated Iraq’s WMD status -Throughout the 90’s, Iraqis made repeated attempts to hide WMD activities from international inspectors. -Although all weapons had been destroyed, Iraq had preserved production and R & D capabilities. -The defection of Saddam’s WMD program director along with other intelligence finds revealed intentions to continue development, particularly involving missile production. Iraqis also admitted the continued use of a large bio-weapons factory. -it seems that Saddam began to give up these intentions when sanctions were continually being prolonged due to continual violations. However, hostility to inspectors went on unabated.

Pakistan

AQ Khan “provided the country—single handedly, it was widely believed—with an arsenal of nuclear

weapons (Langewiesche, 2005).”

AQ Khan

• Background

• Spread technology to:– Iran, Libya, and North Korea– Transfer to non-state actors?

• Pakistani & US Reaction

IRAN

Iranian Nuclear

Sites

What will US/Israel do?