The Rise of Populism in Europe Pt 2

Nationalism in Europe

Rise of the Right

Summary • Populism

• The “People” (Morally good) vs the “Elite” (Evil) • Emotional appeal “Identity politics”

• In Europe • Nationalism & the Right (the “people”) vs the EU &

globalism (the “elite”) • R seen as authoritarian & hostile to liberal democracy

• European Union Government • Treaty based, cumbersome & not trusted by ½ of the

“People”

• Eurozone financial crisis & immigration crisis fed the populist rise of nationalism and the right

Financial Resentment

•Policies crafted by elites produced huge recessions, high unemployment, and falling incomes for millions of ordinary workers.

Immigration Resentment

• Apprehension over mass Immigration & fraying National Identity

Agenda

•The “People” •2 Questions

•Rise of Populism by region/state • Alps

• South

• West

• Central & East

• North

•Assimilation

2 Questions

•What if populism is not so much an expression of hostility to liberal democracy but rather frustration that liberal democracy has not been democratic enough?

•What if populism is driven by dissatisfaction with the Western political establishment for not heeding the popular will on an issue of major importance to voters – mass immigration?

- James Kirchick, Great Decisions Populism in Europe

Consequence

• The refusal of the political class to meet the demands of the public = Brexit. • 2004 EU welcomed 10 new East Eur states into EU

• UK’s Tony Blair was one of only 3 EU governments not to use temporary immigration controls applicable to migrants from those countries

• 67% of British believed such immigration “a bad thing for Britain”

• 2015 immigration crisis

• In UK voters mind: EU = mass immigration

• Brexit mantra “Take back control”

“If difficult issues go

unaddressed by

responsible leaders,

they will be exploited

by irresponsible ones.” David Frum

The Atlantic

8

Europeans

Rise of Populism in Europe • Populist parties tripled their support in last 20 yrs

• 2018 nation voting for populist parties surged from 7% to more than 25%

• 1998 only 2 small countries – Switzerland & Slovakia – had populists in government. 2 decades later, another 9 countries do

• “Populist” governments now in power in Poland, Czeck Republic, Slovakia & Hungary

• Italy & Greece are governed by multiparty populist coalitions, while populists of the left or right are partners in coalition governments in 7 other EU states

https://reason.com/2019/07/14/the-terrifying-rise-of-authoritarian-populism

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/734682/European-Union-YouGov-poll-populist-parties-EU-Brexit

Why is populism suddenly all the rage?

• Populist attitudes don’t mean populist votes, but some

circumstances increase likelihood

• Independent voters = electoral volatility

• If detached from traditional parties, voters more

likely to turn to populists

• If mainstream left & right parties converge ideologically =

Populist breeding ground.

• “Mainstream political parties are the same”

• France, Front National merged centre-right UMP &

center-left PS into “UMPS” in campaigning –

Tweedledum & Tweedledee

Why is populism suddenly all the rage?

• Crises activate populist attitudes

• “The elite” has messed things up

• Financial and immigration crisis

• Corruption plays into populist hands

• Populist claim that people are exploited finds wide

public support

• Italy in 1990s. Bribery & nepotism cleared way

for populist Silvio Berlusconi and the Northern League

Populists have gained ground across political spectrum

Leftwing expanded after the financial crisis but failed

to secure any government leadership except Greece.

Rightwing - Hungary’s Orbán & Italy’s Salvini had the

most success in recent years

Why is populism suddenly all the rage?

•Fertile breeding ground not enough for populism to

thrive

•Credible populist challenger who offers an

attractive alternative to existing parties

•Media environment. Media focus on topics they

expect to sell well, such as scandals & conflict,

fueling a sense of crisis that populists draw on.

•Sociopolitical contexts vary by geography – and so

does populism

20 Nov 2018

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2018/nov/20/how-populism-emerged-as-electoral-force-in-europe

Populist Vote Share

1998 2018

7% 25%

• SVP practically invented rightwing populism’s “winning formula”: anti-immigration, anti-neoliberalism and focus on preserving national traditions & sovereignty

• 2019 Switzerland banned citizenship to individuals who have lived in the country on welfare during past three years unless they pay back the money

The Alps

• Long histories of nationalist & far-right tendencies

• Small-government Swiss People’s party (SVP), rooted in rural resistance to urban & foreign influence, defeated Switzerland’s bid to join the EEA in 1992 & swayed national policy since

• Italy has a history of radical rightwing politics & voted 4 times for populist Berlusconi.

The Alps

• Austria Freedom party, far-right movement founded 1956 by former Nazi, won more than 20% of the vote in 1994 and is now in government as Jr Coalition Partner

Southern Europe

• In Spain, Italy & Greece, populism is not exclusively a radical rightwing phenomenon

• Financial crisis hit these countries harder than most

• Perfect setting for a leftwing populist message

• Parties like Podemos in Spain & Syriza in Greece combine populism with a radical leftwing ideology

• In Italy, the Five Star Movement combines populism with a diverse array of ideological stances

• 2015 Spain anti-austerity Podemos took 21% just a year after party was founded

• 2012 hardest hit Greeks gave 27% vote to leftwing populists of Syriza, 2015 elected them to government 37%

• 2018 Greece - Syriza slid from 37% to 25%

The South • 2008 financial

crisis living standards shrink

• Governing centrist parties & Eurocrates pro austerity became target.

unlikely coalition with far-right, anti-immigration Northern

League w nearly 50% of popular vote

• 2017 Italy agreement with Libya that Italy will pay for & train the Libyan Coast Guard to stop the flow of migrants from Africa

The South • 2017 Italy decades

of corruption, mismanagement & 2015 refugee crisis

• Anti-establishment, tax-and-spend Five Star Movement swept to power in

Western Europe

• Differs from S Europe = radical leftwing populists are less successful. • These countries have much stronger economies than their

southern European neighbors. • Exception that proves the rule is Ireland. Did not perform well

economically and harbors a relatively successful radical leftwing populist party: Sinn Féin. • L wing socialist, historically linked to IRA, goal united Ireland • 2nd largest party N Ireland (UK House Commons 7 of 18 NI

seats – abstensionism) • 3rd largest party Rep of Ireland • Soft Eurosceptic

immigration Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)

• 1st far-right party since WW2 to enter every German state parliament and holds 92 seats in the Bundestag

• Christian Democratic Union (CDU) won but only 27%, down from 38% in 2013. Partner SPD earned only 20%, lowest since 1946. SPD leader Nahles threatened to leave coalition

• 2018 Merkle resigned as leader of CDU & will not seek re-election as chancellor in 2021

The West • W Europe’s solid

inner circle has started to succumb to populists

• 2017 Germany far-right, anti-

Merkel hates German Flag EU/Globalism

• 2017 Le Pen’s daughter Marine made 2nd round of France’s presidential elections. Her first-round score was little higher than Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s populist leftwing group La France Insoumise.

• 2019 Yellow Jackets “Revolution against politics by the non political”

• Small town neglect & exploitation by mainstream politicians obsessed with metropolitan areas

The West • Belgium -

Flemish nationalist party Vlaams Belang has been in decline for a decade

• 2005 referendums in France & Netherlands rejected a draft EU constitution, seen at the time as victories for the “ordinary people” against the European elite.

• Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ anti-Islam Freedom party (PVV) is the second-largest parliamentary force.

The West • Netherlands was

shaken up in 2002 with rapid rise of populist Pim Fortuyn, & then by his assassination

The West • UK

• Brexit vote

Jun 2016

Leave 52% to 48%

• PM David Cameron

• Populist Nigel Farage and his UKIP • 2019 new Brexit Party

• Voters felt alienated from benefits of globalization &

• Desired to regain control of immigration & reclaim national sovereignty

The West – UK Brexit

•Originally to happen on 29 March 2019

• 2 yrs after then PM Theresa May began negotiations to leave

•Brexit date delayed twice

•Deal agreed in Nov 2018, but MPs rejected it 3 times

• Ireland Backstop: ensure no border posts/barriers between N Ireland & Rep of Ireland continues after UK leaves EU • If implemented would keep UK in EU's customs union,

preventing UK from striking trade deals with other countries.

•Opposition led to Theresa May's resignation.

The West – UK Brexit

• PM Boris Johnson (Conservative Party), who took over from May, says EU must remove the backstop from deal

• Northern Ireland would stay in European single market for goods but leave customs union. Would mean new customs checks which Johnson insists, could be done electronically away from border.

• EU has previously rejected a technology-led approach to custom declarations.

• If plan is rejected, Johnson says UK will leave on 31 October without a deal “hard exit.”

Central and Eastern Europe

• Populism did not pop up at fringes of political spectrum, but in the center • Parties such as Fidesz in Hungary & Law and Justice in Poland

started political lives as mainstream parties.

• Only later did they also embrace populism and, even later, nativism.

• Because these do not have radical heritages – which could potentially thwart their “respectable” images – they have managed to become the leading parties in their respective countries.

• 2018 Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz in Hungary – populist parties 63% vote in this year’s elections

• Jarosław Kaczyński’s Law & Justice in Poland.

• Both populist, culturally conservative, authoritarian

• Attack core liberal institutions such as independent judiciary & free press, define national identities in terms of ethnicity & religion

The East • Biggest

Advances

• All 4 Visegrad countries governed by populist parties

Poland

• Accepted no Muslims

• Islamic migrants do not integrate and are threat to Western culture, values & security

• Not just a religion but a political Ideology

• Poland saved Eur from Islamic rule at Battle of

• https://www.ft.com/content/6edfdd30-472a-11e5-b3b2-1672f710807b

Vienna Not going to just invite them in now

Treaty on EU •Member states uphold EU's founding values

(respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, rule of law & respect for human rights) •Procedure to suspend certain rights from member •When member persistently breaches values •European Council can suspend rights such as voting & representation in Council. •NO mechanism to expel a member. • Identifying breach requires unanimity •Right-wing populist national leaders can veto

•Affected state still bound by treaties

Czech Rightwing Growth • Ano: “Yes” in Czech, Action of Dissatisfied Citizens

• Led by Andrej Babiš, 2nd-wealthiest citizen, owns 2 of biggest newspapers and was previous finance minister

• Presents as successful outsider, businessman who gets things done unlike career politicians

• Czechs also gave 10.6% of votes to opportunist, anti-immigration Freedom and Direct Democracy party

• Narrowly re-elected president Miloš Zeman, a former Social Democrat PM who in 2013 returned to politics after a decade away – allowing him to position himself as an “outsider” • No effort to hide connections to Russia, and shocks with anti-

Islam, anti-refugee, racist and xenophobic rhetoric.

Northern Europe

• Successful populists are mainly radical rightwing

• Parties such as the Danish People’s party, the Finns and the Sweden Democrats all combine a xenophobic nationalist outlook with a populist message

• Leftwing populism is much less widespread in this part of Europe – strong economies & generous welfare systems of Nordic countries make a radical leftwing populist message less pressing.

their voice

• Denmark - Danish People's party, supports a minority center-right govern

• Closed borders during migrant crisis

• Cut refugee benefits in half & took out ads in Lebanese newspapers warning would-be migrants to stay home

The North

• Even in liberal Scandinavia, nation-first, anti-immigration populists found

secured just 0.4% vote 1998, but in 2018 achieved record 17.6%

• Initially welcoming refugees, did U-turn end 2016, closed borders, no “permanent” status but only 1-3 yr temp, no family reunification to temps etc. Since deported about 80,000 not granted refugee status.

The North

• Far-right Sweden Democrats, with origins in neo-Nazis,

17.5% of vote, has imploded & split in two

• Mainstream Nordic parties long resisted coalition governs with rightwing populists, but have been forced to in Norway, where Progress party in govern coalitions since 2013, & Finland, where Blue Reform party is also in coalition.

The North

• Finland - Finns party, which joined ruling coalition in 2015 after

Rightwing Populist Influence

• Rightwing populist parties influence policy even when not in power

• Britain’s Ukip, Sweden Democrats, Danish People’s party, PVV and AfD brought their countries’ dominant center-right parties to the right on subjects such as immigration

• Fragmentation of national votes

• Mainstream parties have shrunk and smaller parties (not all populist) have gotten bigger.

Rightwing Populist Influence

• Process affected both center-right & center-left, but Europe’s traditional social democratic parties hardest hit

• Germany’s once-mighty SPD only 14% in the polls, French Socialist party scored just 7.4% in last year’s parliamentary elections, and the Dutch Labour party won just 5.7%.

• 2006 Center-left Czech Social Democrats won nearly a third of the national vote. 2017 only 7.3% with just 15 MPs, down from 50 in 2013. Instead, 1/3 of Czech voted for the 6-year-old Ano party.

41 154 75 108 182 62 73 57

2019 European Parliament

25,770,000M

78% Muslim

• 2010-2016, migration = biggest Muslim growth factor

• Muslims: much younger & have more children

• 2016 Muslim median age in Eur 30.4 v other Eur 43.8

• 13 yrs younger

• Muslim birthrate in Eur is 2.6 vs non-Muslim 1.6

• 2050 Muslims 11% Eur?

•Views of Muslims vary widely

•Views of Muslims tied to ideology • 47% of

Germans on right give unfavorable

• 17% on left do so

• Gap tween left & right is 30% points in Italy & Greece.

2017

Majorities in 8 of 10 Eur states favor ban on further immigration from

Muslim Countries

53% of Germans support Muslim immigration ban

In no country did more than 32% disagree with complete ban

2016

Integration, Multiculturalism & Assimilation

• Integration: Process by which immigrants become accepted into host society, both as individuals and groups

• Multiculturalism: respecting the identity of the newcomer and protecting cultural diversity by granting of cultural & political rights to immigrants (Supported by Eur L)

• Policies have two aspects:

1- State support for special ethnic institutions, schools, preschools, homes for the elderly and the like (positive rights)

2- Allowing exemptions from common law and regulations for members of religious and/or cultural minorities (negative rights)

• Assimilation: Newcomers adopt the dominant values and common identity of host country (Supported by Eur R)

Integration in Sweden

•Tino Sanandaji, Kurdish-Swedish economist, born in Iran & moved to Sweden when 10. Doctorate economics, U of Chicago & specializes in immigration issues

•Critic of Sweden’s policy on open borders immigration of low-educated migrants, but also of the anti-immigration party Sweden Democrats • Problem of scale & integration

Integration in Sweden • “ lack of integration among non-European refugees.“

• 22% non-ethnic Swede

• 48% of working age immigrants don't work

• Even after 15 yrs in Sweden, employment only 58% v 82%

• Jobs are highly skills-intensive, even low-skilled Swedes can't get work

• 42% of long-term unemployed are immigrants

• 58% of welfare payments are to immigrants

• 45% of children with low test scores are immigrants

• Immigrants earn less than 40% of Swedes

• Majority of people charged with murder, rape & robbery are 1st or 2nd generation immigrants

Integration in Sweden

• Much 2nd generation lives in nice Swedish welfare ghettos. The social strains – white flight, a decline in trust – growing worse. Immigrant-heavy (505) city of Malmo is an economic & social basket case.

• Sweden's generosity costs a fortune, while economic growth is stagnant. • Spends $4-billion/yr settling new refugees – up from $1-billion a few

years ago • Negative GDP per capita growth rates in period of economic cycle recovery

• Journalists see mission as stopping racism, & don't report bad news. Because of this self-censorship, the gap between opinion elites & voters on immigration issues is now a chasm

• 58% of Swedes believe there is too much immigration

• Anti-immigration Sweden Democrats party polling 20-25%

Integration in Sweden

• Can't combine open borders with a welfare state. "If you're offering generous welfare benefits & anyone can come and use these benefits, then a very large number of people will try to do that. It's mathematically impossible for a small country like Sweden to fund those benefits”

- Tino Sanandaji

• 2011 British PM Cameron, former French Pres Sarkozy, & German Chancellor Merkel declared “end of multiculturalism in Europe.”

“We contest this”

Multicultural Policy Index

Changes to citizenship laws needed? • In addition to changing the formal requirements for

citizenship, European countries need to shift away from conceptions of national identity based on ethnicity.

• EU member states with citizenship laws based on jus sanguinis—“the right of blood,” which confers citizenship according to the ethnicity of parents—should adopt new laws based on jus soli, “the right of the soil,” which confers citizenship on anyone born in the territory of the country.

• European Union https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union

• European Parliament http://europarl.europa.eu/about-parliament/en http://europarl.europa.eu/about-parliament/files/home-page/en-ep-brochure.pdf

• Political Groups/Parties www.europarl.europa.eu/about-parliament/en/organisation-and-rules/organisation/political-groups

• Economic Statistics https://www.statista.com/statistics/268830/unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/

• Why are Yellow Jackets so Angry https://www.politico.eu/article/why-are-france-yellow-jackets-so-angry-fuel-tax-emmanuel-macron/

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/13/opinion/france-yellow-vests- protests.html?register=email&auth=register-email

• Against Identity Politics https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2018-08-14/against-identity-politics-tribalism-francis-fukuyama

https://quillette.com/2019/05/27/how-progressivism-enabled-the-rise-of-the-populist-right/

https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-anatomy-of-illiberal-states/

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/03/08/the-rise-of-european-populism- and-the-collapse-of-the-center-left/

• The New Tribalism and the Crisis of Democracy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right-wing_populism

• Sweden Assimilation https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/swedens-ugly-

immigration-problem/article26338254/

• Rethinking “Integration” and “Assimilation” of Refugees http://brownpoliticalreview.org/2017/03/rethinking-integration-assimilation-refugees/

• Integration in Sweden https://www.imsweden.org/wp-

content/uploads/Files/integration_in_sweden.pdf

• Multiculturalism: Success, Failure, and the Future https://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/TCM-multiculturalism-success-failure