The Road To and Beyond 2015

Jerry Velasquez

Sr. Regional Coordinator,

UNISDR Asia Pacific

Meeting of the Executive Committee and Development Support Group for 6AMCDRR, 5-6 August 2015

Implementing HFA1

Developing HFA2

Implementing HFA25AMCDRR

Oct 2012

3WCDRR, March 2015

We are here

6AMCDRR, June 2014

UN GASept 2015

SIDS, Sept 2014

What do we need by 2015?

1. What and how can we boost HFA1 implementation in Asia Pacific until it expires?

2. What are the main concerns of the region related to the “elements” of HFA2?

3. How do we integrate HFA2 outcomes in the Post-2015 development agenda (post MDGs)?

4. What does the region prepare for WCDR?5. How do we prepare to develop the HFA2

implementation plan?

More people in the region are getting exposed to hazards…

Human exposure to tropical cyclone is increasing for most sub-regions

…and typhoons are getting stronger…

The number of recorded categories 4 and 5 typhoons increasing

… however, mortality risks are decreasing – less people are dying!

For hydro-meteorological hazards, mortality risks are decreasing for some sub-regions

Cyclone - Relative mortality risk trend

Total economic losses (1981 – 2011) in million US$ for selected countries

Economic losses larger than previously thought…

…economic exposure growing faster than human exposure…

Region represent more than 85 per cent of global economic exposure to tropical cyclones

… economic losses due to disasters increasing…

Losses have grown more than 16 times since 1970, while GDP increased by 13 times

Economic losses in 2011, 80% of total losses for 2000 to 2009

… and its private citizens who pay for disaster losses.

Private sector and communities pay the highest price

1) What and how can we boost HFA1 implementation by 2015?

HFA1 expected outcome – “The substantial reduction of disaster losses, in lives and in the social, economic and environmental assets of communities and countries”•Which areas of HFA1 needs boosting?

• What does the HFA Monitor tell us? • And other sources of learning on DRR?

•Where and what actions are necessary?•What evidence of HFA1 achievements can we generate for “celebration” in 2015?•How HFA1 experiences can guide identification of targets, indicators and “How to do DRR” for HFA2?

2) What are the main concerns related to the HFA2?

1. HFA2 FormBuilding on the existing HFA - What needs to be added

to HFA1 (GP13) Adding a soft law or principles Targets and indicators on DRR and Resilience Adding guides for action Periodic peer review Strengthening Priority 4 – dealing with underlying risks National standards on risk assessment of critical

infrastructures and commitments on global safe schools and health facilities with funding commitments announced at 3WCDR (High Level Communiqué at GP13)

2) What are the main concerns related to the HFA2?

1. HFA2 FormWhat are the issues from HFA2 Phase 1 consultations in

the region? DRR – CCA - Sustainable development integration, planning to

action Turning vulnerability to resilience Local level action Gender and women issues Governance and Accountability

What are the issues of interest for 6AMCDRR? Community resilience Increasing public investments for DRM Enhance Public-Private Partnership for increased role of private

sector in DRR

Form: DRR and resilience

Risk = function (hazard, vulnerability, exposure)

Hazard defined in terms of natural hazards and man-made hazards

Vulnerability defined in terms of mortality and economic losses (direct and indirect)

Exposure defined in terms of human and economic exposure to hazards

Resilience = function (shock, capability, exposure)

Shock defined as events that impact vulnerability

Capability defined as function of sensitivity to shock, adaptive capacity and resources

Exposure defined in terms of economic, social and ecological exposure to hazards

Form: DRR and ResilienceHow do we reduce disaster risks?

• Reduce hazards

• Reduce vulnerability (OUR FOCUS SO FAR…)

• Early warning• Risk assessment• Education• Underlying causes of risks• Preparedness

• Reduce exposure• Land use planning• Urban and spatial planning• Recovery and reconstruction

How do we increase resilience?

Increase capabilities• Promote inclusiveness and equity to

improve absorption of benefits by people from the system

• Improve the ability to learn and store knowledge and experience,

• Promote flexible decision-making and problem solving and power structures

• Be ready to deploy ex-post interventions.

• Income, commodities and assets that are available and sufficient, redundant and diversified. These assets will also include social and ecological assets.

• Promote ex-ante DRR interventions• Improve preparedness

Form: Targets and Indicators - DRR and Resilience

DRR Resilience

Reduce mortality No negative impact of disasters on poverty

Reduce economic losses No negative impact of disasters on GDP

Reduce future climate change No negative impact of disasters on conflict

Outcomes

Form: Targets and Indicators - DRR and Resilience

Exposure

DRR Resilience

All land use plans are risk sensitive

Clear governance and accountabilities on exposure

Halve exposure of poor and the services they rely on

Redundant services for poor

All disaster recovery reduce hazard exposure

Ex-post plans in place

Form: Targets and Indicators - DRR and Resilience

Vulnerability/Capability

DRR Resilience

DRM in national policies Inclusive decision making

Disaster Impact Assessment in %age of sectoral plans

Social safety net floor

% of national budget for DRR Diversified livelihoods

Post-2015 Development Agenda - High Level Panel Recommendation

2. HFA2 Actors

• Which actors (GP13)• How do we encourage DRR commitment from various

stakeholders?• How do we get them interested?• How do we convert threats to opportunities for each

actor?• How do we create space for various actors to work hand in

hand with governments?

GP High Level Dialogue Communiqué and Asia Pacific HFA2 consultations

• Private sector commitments on DRR• Public and private collaboration on DRM

2) What are the main concerns related to the HFA2?

HFA1 Actors

States, Regional Organizations, International Organizations, ISDR

Actors: How to promote new decision taking approach?

• Lessons from the region– HFA2 Phase 2 consultations focus on stakeholders– Formalize an HFA2 partnership framework for

stakeholders– Examples of successful partnerships i.e. AADMER

Partnership Group

• GAR13– New standards– New incentives and models of value addition– New accountability and regulatory framework

2) What are the main concerns related to the HFA2?

3. Implementation

• How do we promote improved DRR implementation in HFA2?

• How to move from plans to actions?

• Mechanisms, approaches, methods and tools

• Examples of “how do we really do DRR”?

3) How do we integrate HFA2 outcomes in the SDGs/Post-2015 Development Agenda?

• Build on the High Level Panel recommendations

• Work with country delegations• Develop strong evidence for use by

delegations• Briefings – notes and presentations in

various venues

4) What do we need to prepare for GP15/3WCDRR?

From the GP13 Chairs Summary • GP15 will be multi-stakeholder

– Meeting of National Platforms– Multi-stakeholder parallel forums (e.g. children)

• 3WCDR will be inter-governmental - commitments needed from– Central governments– Local governments– Communities– Private sector– Science community

• Review of regional DRR strategies• Review of UN joint action on DRR to assist

countries

4) What do we need to prepare for GP15/3WCDRR?

Ensure AP region voice/inputs:• Need of a dedicated group of champion

stakeholders from the region fully aware and vocal carrying evidence of their cause

• Governments need to be fully aware of the options for HFA2 with evidence and cases compiled from the region

• Highlight achievements of the region on HFA1 and celebrate these achievements

5) How do we prepare to develop HFA2 Implementation Plan?

Use the process leading to 6AMCDRR and beyond:•Build HFA2 partnerships •Use HFA2 partnerships to develop and review standards, regulations and incentives under HFA2 implementation plan•Use the learning on “how to do DRR” from the region to inform the above

THANK YOU