the roi study

The ROI study

Sales return A meta-analysis of 500+ econometric models

2011 – 2016

Analysis conducted by

Sally Dickerson, managing director

of effectiveness consultancy

The ROI study

Part of the Omnicom Media GroupA graduate in Mathematics from Oxford, Sally joined Mars UK as a

market research analyst, later joining their Management Science

division. She co-founded The Decision Shop, part of Bates/Cordiant

then in 1999 joined the then OMD group and set up ROI (Return on

Investment) focused on market mix modelling, which became OMD

Metrics, then BrandScience, and is now Annalect Marketing Sciences.

In 2016 Sally created a new consultancy business, Benchmarketing,

running strategic quantitative consultancy projects using meta analysis.

She has also contributed to over 30 IPA advertising effectiveness

awards, been an IPA effectiveness award judge, and run marketing

effectiveness masterclasses for the Marketing Society and Chartered

Institute of Marketing. She was a judge on the inaugural Cannes

Creative Effectiveness Lions panel, in 2011 and again in 2013.

3 key questions

1How effective are campaigns

that use print newsbrands

versus those that do not?

2What impact do print

newsbrands have on

the effectiveness of

other media channels?

3What proportion of the

budget should be spent

on print newsbrands to

deliver optimum total

campaign ROI?

The evidence

Print newsbrands boost

overall campaign ROI by

three times on average

1Print newsbrands make

TV twice as effective

and online display four

times as effective

2 3Spend on print newsbrands

should return to 2013 levels,

and can be boosted further

by use of digital newsbrands

Source: Benchmarketing analysis of 500+ econometric models

Retail

Travel & Transport

Automotive

Finance

Combined services

FMCG

The study analysed six categories

How has adspend evolved

in the last five years?

SMI data provides a

representative picture

of actual media mix

Actual media

spend from

booking data

provided by 65%

of UK agencies

Data across

all above the

line media

Detailed breakdown

of digital spend across

display, video and

paid search

Breakdown

of newsbrand

spend across

print and digital

Source: SMI (Standard Media Index)

13.7%

2013

11.9%

2014

9.7%

2015

14.4%

2012

15.4%

2011

Across all categories, total newsbrand

spend has declined since 2011

Source: Total available categories SMI 2011-2015

50

%

0%

Digital channels accounted for a third of media spend in 2015

TV Cinema OOH Radio Magazines Print

newsbrands

Online

newsbrands

Other

digital

display

Digital

video

Search

43.0%

1.4%

9.4%

3.6% 3.4%

7.6%

2.1%

11.1%

5.8%

12.6%

9.7%

31.6%


13.7%

12.5%

11.4%

9.6%

7.6%

1.7%

1.9%

2.3%

2.3%

2.1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

% spend over the year - All categories

TV Cinema OOH Radio Magazines Print newsbrands Online newsbrands Other digital display Digital video Search

Digital has grown from 21.7% in 2011 to 31.6% in 2015


11.4%

2013

9.6%

2014

7.6%

2015

12.5%

2012

13.7%

2011

Across all categories print newsbrand

spend has declined since 2011


27.1%

2013

22.3%

2014

16.5%

2015

28.1%

2012

30.1%

2011

In retail, print newsbrands remain the #2

channel despite the decline


12.7%

2013

10.1%

2014

7.7%

2015

16.1%

2012

18.7%

2011

In automotive, spend in print

newsbrands has seen sharp decline


9.8%

2013

8.3%

2014

7.7%

2015

10.7%

2012

13.1%

2011

In finance, spend in print newsbrands

has declined less sharply


Has the pendulum swung too far?

Our exploration

Advertising x medium and message

PR, Media mentions, Buzz

Pricing vs competitors

Store universe changes

Product/Range changes

Brand awareness/perceptions

Competitor marketing

Competitor routes to market

Technological change

Seasonality

Economic change

Econometrics – identifying and assigning a

weight to the ingredients driving sales

Calculating

revenue return

on investment

(RROI)

Base Distribution 1 Distribution 2 Promotions Channel 1

Channel 2 Channel 3 Channel 4 Channel 5

Calculating

revenue return

on investment

(RROI)

Spend

£m

Sales £m

due to

spend

RROI

Channel 1

Channel 2

Channel 3

Channel 4

Channel 5

Total

£2.5

£0.5

£1.5

£1.0

£0.5

£6.0

£3.0

£0.5

£3.0

£1.5

£0.6

£8.6

1.20

1.00

2.00

1.50

1.20

1.43

A meta analysis of multiple econometric cakes

R² = 0.9556

£0.0

£0.2

£0.4

£0.6

£0.8

£1.0

£1.2

£1.4

£1.6

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Re

ve

nu

e R

OI

Print newsbrands % of total communications spend

Defining the relationship between spend and revenue

return

Each dot on the graph

represents a case in

our Results Vault

Here the data suggests as the %

of print newsbrands in the mix

increases, so does effectiveness

This is an example chart, not real data

Creating tertile groups of cases shows the revenue return

for low, medium and high spend levels

£0.0

£0.2

£0.4

£0.6

£0.8

£1.0

£1.2

£1.4

£1.6

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Re

ve

nu

e R

OI

% of total communications spend

£0.0

£0.5

£1.0

£1.5

Tertiles of % of total communications spend

This is an example chart, not real data

1How effective are campaigns

that use print newsbrands

versus those that do not?

£9.08

£25.18

£18.82 £18.25

Total

campaign

revenue

ROI

Low 2-20% Medium 20-31% High 31-100%

Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in retail

No print

newsbrand

spend

2015 spend levels

16.5%Retail

Print newsbrands

boost total campaign

ROI by 2.8 times,

but the category is

failing to spend at

optimum levels

Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015

£3.25

£5.55

£4.81£4.55

Total

campaign

revenue

ROI

Low 1-3% Medium 3-10% High 10-31%

Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend

No print

newsbrand

spend

2015 spend levels

7.7%

Automotive

Print newsbrands

boost total campaign

ROI by 70%, but

advertisers are

neglecting this at a

cost to their business

Automotive


£1.49

£8.47

£6.76

£3.91

Total

campaign

revenue

ROI

Low 2-5% Medium 7-22% High 22-37%

Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend

No print

newsbrand

spend

2015 spend levels

7.9%

FinanceAutomotive

Print newsbrands

boost overall

campaign ROI by up to

5.7 times but

advertisers are

missing out on large

additional revenues by

not including

newsbrands in the mix

Finance

2015 spend levels

7.9%


2What impact do print

newsbrands have on

the effectiveness of

other media channels?

Print newsbrands

make TV spend

work twice as hard

£6.49

£12.22

£5.72

£10.82

TV

revenue

ROI

Low 2-10% Medium 10-12% High 12-18%

Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in combined services

No print

newsbrand

spend

Combined

services

Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015.

Combined services includes: Finance, Retail, Telecoms, Travel & Leisure, Media, Government/Social/Political, Other Services(Online & Offline)

Print newsbrands

boost online display

and video by up to

four times£12.46

£20.96

£17.42

£55.98

Online

display

revenue

ROI

No print

newsbrand

spend

Low 2-10% Medium 10-12%


High 12-18%

Combined

services



£4.84

£12.10

£13.33

£8.28

Online

display

revenue

ROI

Low 2-10% Medium 10-12% High 12-18%

Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in finance

No print

newsbrand

spend

2015 spend levels

7.9%

FinanceAutomotive

Print newsbrands also

boost online RROIs by

an average of 2.3

times in finance

Finance


£4.02

£40.45

£11.34

£55.82

Radio

revenue

ROI

Low 2-7% Medium 7-22% High 22-37%


No print

newsbrand

spend

2015 spend levels

7.9%

FinanceAutomotive

Combined services:

print newsbrands

boost radio revenue

by up to 10 times

Finance

Combined

services



£1.70

£3.21

£0.45

£3.15

Radio

revenue

ROI

Low 2-7% Medium 7-22% High 22-37%

Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in finance

No print

newsbrand

spend

2015 spend levels

7.9%

Finance

Print newsbrands

boost radio revenue

by up to 1.9 times

in finance

Finance


3What proportion of the

budget should be spent

on print newsbrands to

deliver optimum total

campaign ROI?

The data

from the meta

analysis allows us

to build response

curves for each

channel, by which

we calculate the

optimum split for

any given budget

Revenue

£m

Media investment £m

800

900

Online Display

TV

Online Search

Newspapers

VOD

Outdoor

Magazines

Radio

TV Sponsorship

Cinema

Source: BrandScience channel planning sales analysis 2015

0%

13%

22%

24%

26% 26% 26%

27% 27%

26%

24%

22%21% 21%

20%

19%

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Total annual campaign budget £m

Print newsbrands should form a significant proportion

of the mix for all budget levels in supermarket retail

Recommended % spend on print newsbrands to optimise total campaign ROI


Retail –

Supermarkets£40m 16.5% 27%

CategoryTypical spend

p.a. £m

Print newsbrand

spend % 2015

Print newsbrand %

spend for maximum

campaign effect

Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015Source: BrandScience channel planning sales analysis 2015

11%

62%

51%

34%

26%

21%

17%

15%13%

12%

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Print newsbrands should form a significant proportion

of the mix for finance brands





Finance Typical spend

p.a. £m

£25m

(higher spends £50m)

Print newsbrand

spend % 2015

8%

Print newsbrand % spend for

maximum campaign effect

21%

13% for higher spends


18%

17% 17%

15% 15%

14%

12% 12%

11% 11% 11%10% 10% 10%

11% 11%

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 25 30 35 40 45 50


Print newsbrands should form at least 10%

of the budget for automotive brands




Automotive Typical spend

p.a. £m

£20m

Print newsbrand

spend % 2015

8%

Print newsbrand %

spend for maximum

campaign effect

11%


2016 2017

11.4%

2013

9.6%

2014

7.6%

2015

12.5%

2012

13.7%

2011

The pendulum has swung too far

for print newsbrands – and advertisers

are missing out

Source: SMI (Standard Media Index)

The evidence

Print newsbrands boost

overall campaign ROI by

three times on average

1Print newsbrands make

TV twice as effective

and online display four

times as effective

2 3Spend on print newsbrands

should return to 2013 levels,

and can be boosted further

by use of digital newsbrands