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© Fraunhofer ISE
The Role of Solar Energy in our Future
Energy System
Eicke R. Weber,
Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
and
Albert-Ludwigs University, Freiburg, Germany
General Lecture, University of Stellenbosch
Stellenbosch, SA, January 24, 2014
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
Largest European Solar Energy Research Institute
Topic: Technologies for the Energy Transformation
More than 1300 members of staff (incl. students)
Business Areas:
• Energy - Efficient Buildings
• Silicon Photovoltaics (PV)
• III/V & Concentrator PV
• Dye-, OPV & other novel PV
• PV Modules & Power Plants
• Solar Thermal Technologies
• Hydrogen, FC Technologies
• System Integration, Grid
• Efficient Power Electronics
• Emission-free Mobility
• Storage Systems
• Energy System Analysis
15% basic financing
85% contract research
30% industry, 55% public
€ 84 M budget (‘13)
• ISE Freiburg
• CSP Halle (with IWM)
• THM Freiberg (with IISB)
• LSC Gelsenkirchen
• CSE Boston (Fh-USA)
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A radical transformation of our energy system is needed – Jeremy Rifkin: We are starting the 3rd Industrial Revolution!
The world has to transform to living in a
sustainable way!
Limited availability of fossil fuels
Danger of catastrophic climate change
Risk of nuclear disasters
Growing dependency on imports from
politically unstable regions
Economic advantages get noticable
Important aspects to take into account:
The transformation needs time and money
Technological development
Capacity building
Investments in infrastructure
Industrialized countries and countries with
high consumption per capita must lead!
The world is getting warmer
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Cornerstones for the transformation of our energy system
Energy Efficiency: Buildings, Production, Transport
Massive increase renewable energies Photovoltaics, Solar and geo thermal, wind, hydro, biomass.....
Fast development of the electric grid Transmission and distribution grid, bidirectional
Small and large scale energy storage systems Electricity, Hydrogen, Methane, Biogas, Solar Heat
Mobility as integral part of the energy system Electric mobility by means of batteries and hydrogen/fuel cells
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Example: Scenario for 100% Renewable Energy Supply
till 2050 in Germany
Strong decrease of heat demand from
buildings (energy renovations,
‘zero-energy’ houses
Increase of combined-cycle heat/power
plants
Thermal storage for heating and cooling
Coupling of electricity grid and gas pipelines through production of regenerative hydrogen and methan
Introduction of e-mobility with battery- and fuel cell powered cars
Use of liquid biofuels, especially for heavy trucks and air traffic
Key Features:
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Year 2012
Total* 22.9%
136.1 TWh
PV 4.7%
28.0 TWh
32.6 GW
Bio 6.9%
40.9 TWh
Wind 7.7%
46.0 TWh
31.3 GW
Hydro 3.6%
21.2 TWh
* Brutto electricity
demand
Electricity generation from renewable energy sources Development in Germany 1990 – 2012
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World Energy Resources (1Twy = 8760 TWhr)
Source: R. Perez et al.
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Production 2011
(MWp)
Thin film 3,204
Ribbon-Si 120
Multi-Si 10,336
Mono-Si 9,114
PV Production Development by Technology
Source: Navigant Consulting
Design: PSE AG 2012
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0,01 0,1 1 10 1001
10
2010
2000
1990
Cumulated Production [GWp]
Mo
du
le P
rice
[in
flat
ion
ad
just
ed €
2011
/ W
p]
1980
Price Learning Curve (all c-Si PV Technologies)
Source: Navigant Consulting;
EuPD Module price (since 2006)
Design: PSE AG 2012
Learning Rate:
With each doubling of cumulative
production, price went down by 20%!
Cost of PV electricity
2013:
ca. 13 €ct/kWh
in Germany
< 6-8 $ct/kWh
in sun-rich countries
2013: Ready-installed rooftop system in Germany: down to € 1.20 /Watt!
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Average Price for Rooftop PV Installations in Germany
(10kWp - 100kWp)
Data: BSW-Solar. Graph: PSE AG 2013
Elecricity Cost
of 0.10-0.15 €/kWh!
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Key Elements to Drive Down Cost for PV Manufacturing
Source: M+W group, Dr. Klaus Eberhardt, European PV Technology Platform, September 2011
Vertical Integration
1.0
0.5
0.0
Cost/
Watt (a.u.)
Technology Improvement
Higher Area Utilization
Diluted Overhead Costs
Optimized Facilities
High Throughput Process Tools
Key Elements to drive costs down
Recycling and Reuse of Chemicals
Process Equipment &
Technology
Scaling
Benchmarking
Value Engineering
Industrial Engineering Integrated
PV Fab
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Crystalline Silicon Technology Portfolio
Materi
al
quality
Module
efficiency
Industry
Standard
IBC-BJ
PERC
MWT-
PERC
20%
19%
18%
17%
16%
15% 14%
Adapted from Preu et al., EU-PVSEC 2009
21%
Devic
e
quality
Material quality
Diffusion length
Base conductivity
Device quality
Passivation of surfaces
Low series resistance
Light confinement
Cell Structures
PERC: Passivated Emitter and
Rear Cell
MWT: Metal Wrap Through
IBC-BJ: Interdigitated Back
Contact – Back Junction
HJT: Hetero Junction Technology
BC-
HJT
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High-efficiency n-type PERL Cells
Lab Results
Excellent performance at cell level
Only very thin ALD layer
necessary
Best cell 705 41.1 82.5 23.9*
Voc
[mV]
Jsc
[mA/cm2]
FF
[%]
η
[%]
Benick et al., APL 92 (2008)
Glunz et al., IEEE-PVSC (2010)
*Confirmed at Fraunhofer ISE CalLab
ap = aperture area
(= bus bar included in illuminated area)
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The efficiency limit for a single-material PV Cell
Si
For Silicon:
(AM1.5g, 1000 W/m², 25°C)
hmax, theo = 28 %
Lab cell = 24 %
500 1000 1500 2000 25000
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Thermalization losses
Transmission losses
Energy that can beused by a Si solar cell
Sp
ectr
al irra
dia
nce [
W/m
2
µm
]
AM1.5 spectrum Si (1.12 eV)
Wavelength [nm]
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The benefit of multi-junction solar cells
For triple-junction
concentrator cells:
hmax, theo = 61 %
(1000xAM1.5d, 1000 W/m²)
Lab. cell = 40.8 %
230xAM1.5d, 1000 W/m²)
GaInP GaInAs
Ge
500 1000 1500 2000 25000
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Sp
ectr
al irra
dia
nce [
W/m
2
µm
]
AM1.5 spectrum GaInP (1.70 eV) GaInAs (1.18 eV) Ge (0.67 eV)
Wavelength [nm]
© Fraunhofer ISE
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World Record 44.7 % Efficiency Solar Cell
Wafer-Bonded, 4-Junction Technology Fh-ISE with SOITEC, Cea-Leti, HZB
75
80
85
90
hmax
= 44.7 % @ C=297
FF
[%
]
35
40
45
Eff
. [%
]
1 10 100 10003.2
3.6
4.0
4.4
lot12-01-x17y04
VO
C [
V]
Concentration [x, AM1.5d, ASTM G173-03, 1000 W/m²]
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III/V Multijunction cells are used in Concentrated PV: CPV
2012: SOITEC SOLAR
builds a 300 MW CPV
installation, using a new
150 MWp/yr factory near
San Diego, CA!
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World market outlook: experts are optimistic Example Bank Sarasin, Nov 2010
Newly installed (right)
Annual growth rate (left)
Gro
wth
ra
te
Market forecast: 30 GWp in 2014, 110 GWp in 2020
Annual growth rate: in the range of 20% and 30%
Source: Sarasin, Solar Strudy, Nov 2010
2013:
35-37 GWp,
far above
forecast!
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IEA Outlook on PV production world-wide
Rapidly declining cost of PV
generated electricity open
up new market opportunities
Current 30GWp/a market will
increase to a 100+ GWp/a
market in 2020; for 2050
more than 3000 GWp of
globally installed PV
capacity is expected
Strong increase
necessitates construction of
GW-scale, highly automatic
PV production plants
IMEC
2013
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Daily Electricity Consumption – Juli Fab 5
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in k
W
Uhrzeit
Dienstag, den 16.07.2013
KACO new energy
Graph Courtesy Ralf Hofmann, KACO
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Daily Electricity Consumption – August Fab 5
with 2 MW PV System
0
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60
80
100
120
14000
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In k
W
Uhrzeiten
Dienstag, den 20.08.2013
KACO new energy
Graph Courtesy Ralf Hofmann, KACO
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Production Capacity
PV Sales
Estimated
Produktionskapazitäten und Nachfrage nähern sich an
- 15 -
China will den Aufbau von Produktionskapazitäten bremsen
Nachfrage >50 GW könnte schon 2015 zu Engpässen führen
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016*
[GW]
Produktionskapazitäten
Nachfrage
*vorläufig/geschätzt
?
Quellen: EPIA, JRC, Mercom, iSuppli, BNEF, IEA, Photon, SW&W, Bloomberg, Solarbuzz und eigene Schätzungen Slide courtesy Tobias Kelm, ZSW; data from EPIA, Mercom, iSupply, BNEF, IEA, Photon, SW&W, Bloomberg, Solarbuzz, and own estimates
The Gap between global PV Production Capacity and
Sales is Closing!
Demand > 50 GW 2015 might result in shortage of PV modules!
Non-competitive PV fabrication lines are closing worldwide
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Solar Thermal System Typology
Driving
temperature
Collector type System type
Low
(60-90°C)
Open cycle: direct air treatment
Closed cycle: high temperature cooling
system (e.g. chilled ceiling)
Medium
(80-110°C)
Closed cycle: chilled water for cooling
and dehumidification
Closed cycle: refrigeration, air-
conditioning with ice storage
High
(130-200°C)
Closed cycle: double-effect system
with high overall efficiency
Closed cycle: system with high
temperature lift (e.g. ice production
with air-cooled cooling tower)
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Solar Thermal Power Plants
Receiver
Concentrating Mirror
Heat Transport
Tracking Systems
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Concentrated Solar (Thermal) Power CSP Technologies
C ~ 70-90
commercial
ha ~ 12%-14%
LEC2020 ~ 5ct/kWh
C ~ 60-120
demo
ha ~10%-12%
LEC2020 ~ 5ct/kWh
C ~ 300-4000
demo
ha ~ 14%-18%
LEC2020 ~ ?
C ~ 500-1000
comm. demo
ha ~ 10%-15%
LEC2020 ~ 5ct/kWh
Parabolic Mirrors Fresnel Mirrors Stirling Dish Solar Tower
(Fresnel)
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© Solarmillenium
Solar collector field
Tubing and heat
exchanger
Storage – optional
Power plant
Cooling - wet- or dry
cooling
Solar thermal power plants may include storage!
Components:
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ISE Model of a future German Energy System
Combining Electricity, Gas and Heat *
Near-100% 24/7/365 reliable renewable energy from
wind, sun, hydro & biomass at minimum total cost!
Source: H. Henning, A. Palzer, Fraunhofer ISE 2012 *Without Transport, Import-Export!
PV: 220 GW, 214 TWh
Wind: 253 GW, 596 TWh
Hydro 5 GW, 21 TWh
Biomass: 50 TWh
Energy Efficiency of Buildings: - 50%
Maximum Demand: 132 GW
Maximum Generation: 321 GW – Storage!
Total Cost: same as 2012!
heat load,
total
electrical heat
pump
solar heat
micro-CHP
solar heat
gas
heat pump
solar heat
biomass
pow er-
to-gas
battery
storage
methane
storage
combined
cycle gas
turbine
pumped
storage pow er
plant
CHP
central
photovoltaic
w ind
onshore
w ind
offshore
hydro
pow er
import
electricityexcess heat
heat
stor-
age
heat load
gas-HP + solar
heat load
micro CHP +
solar
heat
stor-
age
fossilsolar heat
central
heat load
el. HP + solar
heat
stor-
age
heat
stoarge,
central
heat load CHP
+ solar,
central
excess
electricity
export
electricity
electrical
load
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Example Germany: The Cost of the Energy Transition
Slide courtesy F. Staiss 2013, based on data from BMU
© Fraunhofer ISE
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BMWi, IIIC2
DEU 1950
DEU 1990 DEU
2010
Anteil Erneuerbare am Bruttostromverbrauch (Prozent)
Energieeffizienz BIP/PEV (Mio. ! 2010 / PJ)
Deutschland auf dem Weg in ein neues Energiezeitalter
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Zeitalter der Erneuerbaren
Zeitalter der Energieeffizienz
Energiekonzept 2050
DEU 1973
Graph: K. Kübler, BMWi, FVEE 2011
The Road Towards the Energy Transformation:
Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energies
We should describe progress on this road by an index: ETI
© Fraunhofer ISE
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0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Effic
ien
cy =
GD
P / P
ED
[U
S$
2011/k
Wh
]
Share of Renewable Energy in PED [%]
Example Germany
Values from 2011
Eff
= 0
,99
US
$/k
Wh
RE = 10%
ETI = Normalized length of the
vector in the Eff / RE diagram
Eff = Efficiency = GDP/PED
[US-$2011/kWh]
Effn = Eff / 2 $/kWh
GDP = Gross Domestic Product [$2011 ]
PED = Primary Energy Demand [kWh]
RE = Share of Renewable Energy
[0..…1] (1 means 100%)
ETI = 100 * (Effn + RE)/2
[0…….100…..]
ETI: = average of Effn and RE!
Energy Transformation Index ETI - Definition
© Fraunhofer ISE
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0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Effic
ien
cy =
GD
P / P
ED
[U
S$
2013/k
Wh
]
Share of Renewable Energy on Primary Energy Demand [%]
CAN 24
SWE 40
EU-27 25
MEX 18
USA 18
GER 30
JAP 30
Data: World Bank / IEA, German Ministry for Economy
CHN 11
BRA 39
2010
ITA 34
ETI max 100
IND 19
ARE United Arab Emirates
AUT Austria
BRA Brazil
CAN Canada
CHE Switzerland
CHN China
DNK Denmark
EU-27 European Union
GER Germany
IDN Indonesia
IND India
ITA Italy
IRL Ireland
ISL Iceland
JAP Japan
MEX Mexico
SAU Saudi Arabia
SWE Sweden
USA United States
ISL 47
ARE 11
SAU 8
CHE 65
IRL 39
DNK 51
AUT 40
IDN 25
Energy Transformation Index ETI for different countries
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Development of ETI for selected countries 1990-2011
2010
0 0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Effic
iency =
GD
P / P
ED
[U
SD
2013/k
Wh]
Share of Renewable Energy on PED [%]
Germany
USA
China
EU-27
Sweden
Canada
Mexico
South Korea
Japan
Italy
Great Britain
France
Australia
South Africa
India
Spain
Diagonale
Diagonale
Diagonale
Diagonale
Optimaler Pfad
ESP 31 AUS
27
CAN 24
SWE 40
EU-27 25
MEX 18
USA 18
GER 30
JAP 30
Data: World Bank / German Ministry for Economy
ITA 34
GB 30
KOR 10
FRA 27
SA 11 CHN
11 IND 19
© Fraunhofer ISE
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6
7
8
10
11
11
11
14
15
15
16
16
16
16
18
18
19
20
21
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24
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25
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25
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27
27
27
28
29
30
30
30
31
32
33
34
35
39
39
40
40
46
47
51
65
Iran +50%
Russia +133%
Saudi Arabia +100%
South Korea +43%
China -15%
South Africa* +38%
UAE +120%
Czech Republic +367%
Poland +650%
Venezuela +114%
Argentina +60%
Hungary +300%
Slovakia +700%
Thailand -27%
Mexico +64%
USA +100%
India -21%
Turkey +33%
Belgium +110%
Slovenia +100%
Canada +71%
Pakistan -8%
EU-27* +108%
Indonesia -4%
Netherlands +150%
Israel +136%
Australia +145%
France +80%
Greece +125%
Chile +47%
Finland +45%
Germany +173%
Great Britain +173%
Japan +76%
Spain +94%
Luxembourg +300%
Portugal +65%
Italy +79%
Colombia +75%
Brazil* +30%
Ireland +255%
Austria +67%
Sweden +74%
Nigeria +12%
Iceland +18%
Denmark +155%
Switzerland +124%
ETI 2011(*2010)
ETI 1990
6
7
8
10
11
11
11
14
15
15
16
16
16
16
18
18
19
20
21
22
24
24
25
25
25
26
27
27
27
28
29
30
30
30
31
32
33
34
35
39
39
40
40
46
47
51
65
Iran +50%
Russia +133%
Saudi Arabia +100%
South Korea +43%
China -15%
South Africa* +38%
UAE +120%
Czech Republic…
Poland +650%
Venezuela +114%
Argentina +60%
Hungary +300%
Slovakia +700%
Thailand -27%
Mexico +64%
USA +100%
India -21%
Turkey +33%
Belgium +110%
Slovenia +100%
Canada +71%
Pakistan -8%
EU-27* +108%
Indonesia -4%
Netherlands +150%
Israel +136%
Australia +145%
France +80%
Greece +125%
Chile +47%
Finland +45%
Germany +173%
Great Britain +173%
Japan +76%
Spain +94%
Luxembourg +300%
Portugal +65%
Italy +79%
Colombia +75%
Brazil* +30%
Ireland +255%
Austria +67%
Sweden +74%
Nigeria +12%
Iceland +18%
Denmark +155%
Switzerland +124%
ETI 2011(*2010)
ETI 1990
ETI-Ranking for 47 countries and growth between 1990 and 2011 (percentage)
© Fraunhofer ISE 2013
© Fraunhofer ISE
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The Role of Solar Energy in our Future Energy System
A near-100% renewable energy system is possible, at similar cost as today’s
energy supply – no more need for imported fuels, almost all is spent domestically
PV will be one of two main pillars – with drastically reduced prices of € 1.00-1.20
/Watt installed LCOE of PV electricity is below 10 ct/kWh, will go down further
Small, distributed battery systems combined with large storage systems and grid
interconnection will guarantee secure power supply
The use of solar thermal energy harvestingen makes especially sense in sun-rich
countries; low-T ST for warm water, CS(T)P with storage for electricity
CSP without storage is not longer cost-competitive compared with PV
In regions with high DNI, CPV is most attractive as it offers the maximum number
of hours per day
Progress in the energy transformation process will be easily monitored by our new
ISE / ISES ETI
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Thank you for your Attention!
[email protected] www.ise.fraunhofer.de
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
Eicke R. Weber with Ralf Preu, Harry Wirth, Klaus Kiefer…