the sampers project - an over view by gunnar johansson sveder transek ab postal address: solna torg...
TRANSCRIPT
The SAMPERS project- an over view
By Gunnar Johansson Sveder
Transek AB
Postal address: Solna Torg 3, S-171 45 Solna, Sweden
Tel: +46 8 735 24 49, Fax: +46 8 735 20 30
e-mail: [email protected], web: www.Transek.se
28 April 1999 2
Background
• Long tradition of cost-benefit analysis of investment projects
• Long tradition of modelling - from 4-step to disaggregate systems
• SAMPLAN, extensive co-operation between agencies responsible for – road, rail, air, sea
• National transportation plan, investment plan, transportation policy:– maintenance, taxation, road
pricing, technical development, regulations
• Evaluation of alternative scenarios the society– efficiency, environment, safety,
regional balance
• Detailed cost-benefit analysis
28 April 1999 3
The old national traffic forecast system
National road network data bank
Public transport(train, bus, air ) Maps
EMME/2 GIS
FREDRIKregional trips
Socio-economic data
IC/3long distance
Car owner ship
EVACBA - assessment
28 April 1999 4
The project
• Contract April 1998
• New traffic demand models– Current data
• National travel survey (1994-1997)
• SP-survey (time of day)
• Fehmarn Belt, Öresund
– All trips• Regional
• National long distance
• International
– Time of day modelling• Long distance public transport trips
– Secondary destination• Regional trips
• Computer System– EMME/2
– Plenty of forecast parameters
– Integrated into one single user-friendly system
• Car ownership
• Demand models
• Impact calculation
• Cost benefit analysis
• Accessibility calculation
– Flexibility to output data
• Validation
• Delivery, spring and autumn 1999
28 April 1999 5
Data assembling
Quality control
Trips construction
Estimation
Client approval
Model implementation
Validation (Survey, Elasticity)
Validation (Traffic counts)
The project process
28 April 1999 6
Train Pedesr. BikeCar dr. Car pas. Bus
Dest1…n
Trip No trip
Bf Bp B T G C
Dest1…n
Bf Bp B T G C
Dest1…n
Bf Bp B T G C
Dest1…n
Home based Secondary destination Working place based
……. ……. …….
Trip No trip
Befolkningsutveckling 1993 - 2010
2 100
1 050
210
-210
-1 050
-2 100
Demand models - Regional trips
• Nested logit models– Secondary destinations
• Trip purposes– Home-work trip
– Recreation
– Personal visits
– School trips
– Business
– and other
• Sweden divided into five regions
• Total 8000 zones
28 April 1999 7
Demand models - National long distance trips
• Nested logit models– Time table assignment
– Time of day models
• Trip purposes– Business
• Duration 0 days
• Duration 1+days
– Private• Duration 1 day
• Duration 2-5 days
• Duration 5+ days
• Total 670 zonesCar
Trip No trip
Bus IC train
X2000train
Air
Destinations
Trip frequency
Destination
Mode
Time of day
Type of ticket
98-10-16 10:45MODULE: 6.26TRANSEK5.. .Chr
EMME/2 PROJECT: SAMPERS-modellSCENARIO : 9731 Period 3, Dag 1 (tisdag)
TRANSIT LINES: 33 LINES
3900 3906
3907 3902
3805
3813 3863 3861 3800 3853 3811 3821 3801 3865
3810
3721
3728
3942 3700
3703
3704
3502
3503
3500
0
50
100
150
200
km
16h00 16h30 17h00 17h30 18h00 18h30 19h00 19h30 20h00 20h30 21h00 21h30 22h00 22h30
28 April 1999 8
Impact & Cost benefit analysis
• Energy consumption– Petrol, Diesel
– Costs
• Exhaust emissions– NOx, HC, Particulate, CO2,
SO2
– Costs
• Traffic safety– Number of killed
– Number of severely injured
– Number of slightly injured
– Wildlife accidents
• Costs– Maintenance costs
– Consumer surplus
– CBA
28 April 1999 9
Computer system
• Technology– Windows NT
– Database• Access (ODBC)
– Software• Visual Basic 5
• PowerPlay
– Object oriented approach
• Multiprocessing
• Export file format– EMME/2
• Data bas
• Filter matrices
– Excel• Standard report
– GIS• MapInfo/ArcView
– Micro simulation system• Contram
• ...
28 April 1999 10
Computer system
Long dist.trip
Data base
SAMPERS Scenario handler system
Regional trip
Emme/2 PowerPlay
ImpactCBA
Internat.trip
28 April 1999 11
Model validation
• No “Base matrix”
• Model estimation– Value of time
– Elasticity
• After implementation– Elasticity
– Model vs Survey • Trip frequency by mode and trip
propose
• Trip length
• Traffic production (mileage)
• Assigned traffic – Counts
• Roads
• Trains
• Airports
• Ferries
28 April 1999 12
Mälar lake region, number of trips, model divided by survey
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Hom
e-work
Oth
er pers
onel
Lesiu
re
Private
vis
its
School
Busin
ess
Total
28 April 1999 13
Mälar lake region, number of trips, model divided by survey
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Bike
Bus
Train
Car d
r.
Car p
ass
Pedest
rian
28 April 1999 14
South region, number of home-work trips by travel distance in km
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
0-2,52,5-5
5-10
10-1515-20
20-2525-30
30-3535-40
40-4545-50 50-
Survey
Model
28 April 1999 15
Traffic production, km per day
02000000400000060000008000000
1000000012000000140000001600000018000000
Bike
Bus
Train
Car d
r.
Car p
ass
Pedest
rian
Survey
Model
28 April 1999 16
Road traffic south of Malmö city
28 April 1999 17
Road traffic west regionLINK SCATTERGRAM
99-05-02 10:39MODULE: 2.43TRANSEK5.. ..ks
EMME/2 PROJECT: VAST fr 3000 zonerSCENARIO : 1000 Bilnt 1997 Vst-Tass
LINKS: !ul1=0
391 LINKS
REGR: Y=A+BXA= -242.416B= .884073R2= .94368STD= 1177.299
2500 5000 7500 10000 12500 15000 17500 20000 22500 25000 27500 30000
0
2500
5000
7500
10000
12500
15000
17500
20000
22500
25000
UL1
UL2
28 April 1999 18
Road traffic around the city of Jönköping
LNKFLDEN, BIL
99-04-30 09:58MODULE: 2.13TRANSEK5.. .Chr
EMME/2 PROJECT: SYDOST fr 3000 zonerSCENARIO : 2000 Bil 1997
WINDOW:1375.8/ 6375.81429.1/6415.73
LINKS: mod=c
langv privlangv tjreg arbetereg vrigt
LAYERS:
SCALE: 651.5
28 April 1999 19
Passenger in the Stockholm underground system
28 April 1999 20
Future possibilities
• Options– Integration of a new car owner
ship model, liked by logsum variables to the demand model
– Integration of land use model