the san bernardino county economy...2020/07/30 · employment – san bernardino county source:...

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & DevelopmentUCR Center for Economic Forecasting and Development | ucreconomicforecast.org

Taner Osman, Ph.D.Manager, Regional and Sub-Regional AnalysisUCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and DevelopmentFounding Partner, Beacon Economics LLC

July 30, 2020

The San Bernardino County Economy

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

§ Covid-19 Update !

§ The State of the Pre-Covid-19 economy in San Bernardino County "

§ The Recession # and the Recovery $

§ Recovery on Ice? %

§ The Road Ahead &

Outline


Covid-19 Update !


COVID-19 Cases

Source: Los Angeles Times

0

500

1000

1500

2000

4/1/

204/

8/20

4/15

/20

4/22

/20

4/29

/20

5/6/

205/

13/2

05/

20/2

05/

27/2

06/

3/20

6/10

/20

6/17

/20

6/24

/20

7/1/

207/

8/20

7/15

/20

7/22

/20

7/29

/20

New

Cas

es

New Cases in San Bernardino

New Cases 7-day MA

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

4/1/

204/

8/20

4/15

/20

4/22

/20

4/29

/20

5/6/

205/

13/2

05/

20/2

05/

27/2

06/

3/20

6/10

/20

6/17

/20

6/24

/20

7/1/

207/

8/20

7/15

/20

7/22

/20

7/29

/20

New

Cas

es

New Cases in California

New Cases 7-day MA


COVID-19 Cases per Capita


0

0.00005

0.0001

0.00015

0.0002

0.00025

0.0003

0.000354/

1/20

4/8/

204/

15/2

04/

22/2

04/

29/2

05/

6/20

5/13

/20

5/20

/20

5/27

/20

6/3/

206/

10/2

06/

17/2

06/

24/2

07/

1/20

7/8/

207/

15/2

07/

22/2

07/

29/2

0

New

Cas

es

New Cases in California

New Cases 7-day MA

0

0.0001

0.0002

0.0003

0.0004

0.0005

4/1/

204/

8/20

4/15

/20

4/22

/20

4/29

/20

5/6/

205/

13/2

05/

20/2

05/

27/2

06/

3/20

6/10

/20

6/17

/20

6/24

/20

7/1/

207/

8/20

7/15

/20

7/22

/20

7/29

/20

New

Cas

es

New Cases in San Bernardino

New Cases 7-day MA


COVID-19 Deaths


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

4/1/

204/

8/20

4/15

/20

4/22

/20

4/29

/20

5/6/

205/

13/2

05/

20/2

05/

27/2

06/

3/20

6/10

/20

6/17

/20

6/24

/20

7/1/

207/

8/20

7/15

/20

7/22

/20

7/29

/20

New

Dea

ths

New Deaths in San Bernardino

New Deaths 7-day MA

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

4/1/

204/

8/20

4/15

/20

4/22

/20

4/29

/20

5/6/

205/

13/2

05/

20/2

05/

27/2

06/

3/20

6/10

/20

6/17

/20

6/24

/20

7/1/

207/

8/20

7/15

/20

7/22

/20

7/29

/20

New

Dea

ths

New Deaths in California

New Deaths 7-day MA


Hospitalizations and ICU Beds


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

3/29

/20

4/3/

204/

8/20

4/13

/20

4/18

/20

4/23

/20

4/28

/20

5/3/

205/

8/20

5/13

/20

5/18

/20

5/23

/20

5/28

/20

6/2/

206/

7/20

6/12

/20

6/17

/20

6/22

/20

6/27

/20

7/2/

207/

7/20

7/12

/20

7/17

/20

7/22

/20

Num

ber o

f Pat

ient

s pe

r Day

Number of COVID-19 Patients, San Bernardino County

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

3/29

/20

4/3/

204/

8/20

4/13

/20

4/18

/20

4/23

/20

4/28

/20

5/3/

205/

8/20

5/13

/20

5/18

/20

5/23

/20

5/28

/20

6/2/

206/

7/20

6/12

/20

6/17

/20

6/22

/20

6/27

/20

7/2/

207/

7/20

7/12

/20

7/17

/20

7/22

/20

Num

ber o

f Pat

ient

s pe

r Day

Available ICU Beds,San Bernardino County


The Pre-Covid-19 Economic in San Bernardino County !• Employment• Consumer activity • Real Estate


Pre-COVID Economy: Employment

Source: QCEW

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Wag

es (T

hous

ands

)

Empl

oym

ent (

Thou

sand

s)

Employment and WagesSan Bernardino County

Employment Wages

Industry

2019 San Bernardino

Employment (000s)

Year-over-Year % Growth

San Bernardino CA

Total 648.2 3.1 1.3Logistics 92.0 9.1 6.3Financial Activities 22.9 6.8 0.6Edu/Health 123.2 4.7 3.2Construction/NR 41.8 3.5 -0.8Wholesale Trade 40.7 2.7 -0.9Prof/Business 27.4 2.4 3.1Admin Support 54.4 2.1 0.4Hospitality 78.0 2.0 2.3Information 4.9 1.0 4.2Retail Trade 87.7 -0.1 -2.1Other Services 19.7 -0.6 -1.9Manufacturing 55.6 -1.1 0.4


Local Employment Base

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

Jan-

09

Sep

-09

May

-10

Jan-

11

Sep

-11

May

-12

Jan-

13

Sep

-13

May

-14

Jan-

15

Sep

-15

May

-16

Jan-

17

Sep

-17

May

-18

Indexed Payroll Job Growth 09-19

California Los Angeles (MD) Inland Empire

Orange County (MD) San Diego Oakland (MD)

San Jose Sacramento San Francisco (MD)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Dec-04

Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

Dec-11

Dec-12

Dec-13

Dec-14

Dec-15

Dec-16

Dec-17

Dec-18

Dec-19

%

Unemployment Rate

Inland Empire Los AngelesOrange County San Diego


Pre-COVID Economy: Business Activity

Source: CDTFA

90100110120130140150160170180190

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Taxable Sales GrowthIndex at 100

Los Angeles Orange CountyRiverside San Bernardino

City 2019 Taxable Sales ($, Millions)

1-Year % Growth

County Total 41.8 3.2Ontario 8.2 3.0Fontana 3.7 3.1San Bernardino 3.3 2.8Unincorporated 2.8 7.3Rancho Cucamonga 2.7 -1.4Chino 2.5 -1.6Victorville 2.0 4.1Rialto 1.9 10.1Upland 1.2 -1.2Redlands 1.2 3.4Montclair 1.2 -1.8


Home Sales – San Bernardino County

Source: CoreLogic

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Q1-05Q1-0

6Q1-0

7Q1-0

8Q1-0

9Q1-1

0Q1-1

1Q1-1

2Q1-1

3Q1-1

4Q1-1

5Q1-1

6Q1-1

7Q1-1

8Q1-1

9Q1-2

0

Sale

s (0

00s)

Med

ian

Pric

es ($

, 000

s)

Home Sales and PricesExisting SFR

Median Prices Sales

County

Median Prices Sales

Q1-20($000s)

1-Yr % Gr Q1-20 1-Yr %

Gr

Los Angeles 677 8.1 12,970 8.8

Orange 830 7.8 5,782 21.4

San Bernardino 343 7.6 6,494 10.4

Riverside 411 6.6 7,949 12.0


Pre-COVID Economy: Apartments

Source: REIS

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Q1-10Q4-1

0Q3-1

1Q2-1

2Q1-1

3Q4-1

3Q3-1

4Q2-1

5Q1-1

6Q4-1

6Q3-1

7Q2-1

8Q1-1

9Q4-1

9

Vaca

ncy

Rat

e (%

)

Vacancy Rate


500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

Q1-10Q4-1

0Q3-1

1Q2-1

2Q1-1

3Q4-1

3Q3-1

4Q2-1

5Q1-1

6Q4-1

6Q3-1

7Q2-1

8Q1-1

9Q4-1

9

Ren

t ($)

Cost of Rent



Pre-COVID Economy: Commercial Permits

Source: CIRB

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Perm

it Va

luat

ion

($, M

illion

s)

Commercial Permits and AlterationsSan Bernardino County

Commercial Alterations

Permit Type 2019 Permit Value ($, Millions) 1-Year Change

Commercial 406.1 203.4

Hotel 15.4 7.5

Office 56.9 -9.2

Industrial 425.2 -27.6

Alterations 347.3 -37.0


The Recession ! and the Recovery "


Employment – San Bernardino County

Source: California Employment Development Department

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Dec

-18

Jan-

19Fe

b-19

Mar

-19

Apr-1

9M

ay-1

9Ju

n-19

Jul-1

9Au

g-19

Sep-

19O

ct-1

9N

ov-1

9D

ec-1

9Ja

n-20

Feb-

20M

ar-2

0Ap

r-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Inde

xed

Empl

oym

ent

Employment Growth

San Bernardino Los AngelesOrange County Riverside County

0

5

10

15

20

Dec

-18

Jan-

19Fe

b-19

Mar

-19

Apr-1

9M

ay-1

9Ju

n-19

Jul-1

9Au

g-19

Sep-

19O

ct-1

9N

ov-1

9D

ec-1

9Ja

n-20

Feb-

20M

ar-2

0Ap

r-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

(%)

Unemployment Rate



Employment Change


Inland Empire

IndustryEmployment (000s) Feb – Jun

GrowthFeb-20 Jun-20 % Absolute

Total Nonfarm 1,550 1,394 -10.0 -155.6Hospitality 173 118 -31.6 -54.7

Retail Trade 182 159 -12.4 -22.5

Education/Health 256 239 -6.4 -16.5

Government 258 243 -6.1 -15.7Admin Support 107 97 -8.8 -9.4Manufacturing 99 90 -8.8 -8.7Construction 109 102 -6.2 -6.7Transport 149 144 -3.1 -4.6Wholesale Trade 67 64 -4.3 -2.9Information 11 9 -16.4 -1.9Prof Sci and Tech 41 39 -3.9 -1.6Finance 44 42 -3.5 -1.5Management 9 9 -0.2 0.0

California

IndustryEmployment (000s) Feb – Jun

GrowthFeb-20 Jun-20 % Absolute

Total Nonfarm 17,605 15,671 -11.0 -1,933Hospitality 2,055 1,423 -30.8 -632

Government 2,632 2,405 -8.6 -227

Education 2,854 2,654 -7.0 -200

Retail Trade 1,655 1,463 -11.6 -192Admin Support 1,138 1,007 -11.5 -131Manufacturing 1,316 1,218 -7.4 -98Information 588 512 -12.9 -76Prof Sci and Tech 1,352 1,287 -4.8 -65Construction 897 849 -5.4 -48Transport 718 672 -6.4 -46Wholesale Trade 691 646 -6.5 -45Finance 852 831 -2.4 -20Management 252 241 -4.6 -12


Deep Dive: Hospitality

Source: California Employment Development Department/American Community Survey

SubsectorJun 2020 Emp.

% Growth Abs. Growth

Month Year Month Year

Total 117,900 21.7 -32.9 21,000 -57,900

Full-Service Restaurants 24,700 59.4 -52.3 9,200 -27,100

Accommodation 10,300 39.2 -44.3 2,900 -8,200

Arts, Entertainment & Recreation

12,900 33.0 -32.5 3,200 -6,200

Limited-Service Eating Places 62,800 6.3 -23.3 3,700 -19,100

7%6%

55%

29%

Asian Black Hispanic Native Other White

54%46%

Female Male

3%

50%26%

18%3%

Less than 18 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+


Deep Dive: Retail Trade


SubsectorJun. 2020 Emp.



Total 156,800 5.0 -12.0 7,500 -21,400Clothing & Clothing Accessories

12,500 54.3 -36.9 4,400 -7,300

Motor Parts Dealer 20,700 2.5 -18.5 500 -4,700

Personal Care 10,700 0.9 -10.1 100 -1,200

Automotive Parts and Tire 6,700 0.0 -10.7 0 -800

Building & Garden 15,000 1.4 2.7 200 400

General Merchandise 34,800 1.8 1.2 600 400

Food & Beverage 35,900 0.3 6.5 100 2200

7%7%

58%

24%

Asian Black Hispanic Other White

57%43%

Female Male

43%

28%

25%4%

18-29 30-44 45-64 65+


Deep Dive: Education/Health


SubsectorJun. 2020 Emp.



Total 237,700 1.0 -3.8 2,300 -9,500

Ambulatory Services 74,000 2.5 -5.0 1,800 -3,900

Educational Services 17,100 -6.0 -7.6 -1,100 -1,400

Physicians Offices 22,200 1.8 -3.5 400 -800

Colleges and Universities 4,700 -13.0 -13.0 -700 -700

Nursing & Residential Care 27,600 1.1 1.5 300 400

Hospitals 42,400 0.7 2.4 300 1,000

13% 9%

41%

35%

Asian Black Hispanic Other White

71%

29%

Female Male

22%

33%38%

7%

18-29 30-44 45-64 65+


Recovery on Ice? !• New unemployment insurance claims


Unemployment Insurance Claims


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1/11/2

0

2/11/2

0

3/11/2

0

4/11/2

0

5/11/2

0

6/11/2

0

7/11/2

0

Wee

kly

Cla

ims

(Tho

usan

ds)

Weekly Initial UI Claims by GenderSan Bernardino County

Female Male

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1/11/2

0

2/11/2

0

3/11/2

0

4/11/2

0

5/11/2

0

6/11/2

0

7/11/2

0

Wee

kly

Cla

ims

(Tho

usan

ds)

Initial UI Claims

Initial UI Claims


Pandemic Unemployment Assistance


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

5/2/20

5/9/20

5/16/2

0

5/23/2

0

5/30/2

06/6

/20

6/13/2

0

6/20/2

0

6/27/2

07/4

/20

7/11/2

0

Cla

ims

(Tho

usan

ds)

Pandemic Unemployment Assistance by Gender

San Bernardino County

Female Male

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

4/24/2

05/1

/205/8

/20

5/15/2

0

5/22/2

0

5/29/2

06/5

/20

6/12/2

0

6/19/2

0

6/26/2

07/3

/20

7/10/2

0

Cla

ims

(Tho

usan

ds)

PUA Claims by Week

PUA Claims


Unemployment Claims by Education


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1/11

/20

2/11

/20

3/11

/20

4/11

/20

5/11

/20

6/11

/20

7/11

/20

Cla

ims (

Tho

usands)

Weekly Initial Claims by EducationSan Bernardino County

High School Degree or Less All Other Education Levels

Education Level July 11 April 4 January 11

High School 31.0% 57.4% 39.9%

Some College 17.0% 19.6% 26.1%

Less than High School 9.1% 9.1% 17.7%

Bachelors 5.2% 7.1% 6.3%

Associate 4.0% 4.6% 6.1%

Graduate 1.3% 1.9% 2.2%


High-frequency data tell a similar story• Credit Card data• Time-tracking data• Mobility data


Consumer Spending (SB County)

Source: Opportunity Insights/Affinity Solutions

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

2020

-01-12

2020

-01-26

2020

-02-09

2020

-02-23

2020

-03-08

2020

-03-22

2020

-04-05

2020

-04-19

2020

-05-03

2020

-05-17

2020

-05-31

2020

-06-14

2020

-06-28

2020

-07-12

Perc

ent C

hang

e in

All

Con

sum

er S

pend

ing

San Bernardino California

-40%-35%-30%-25%

-20%-15%-10%

-5%

0%5%

10%

2020

-01-12

2020

-01-26

2020

-02-09

2020

-02-23

2020

-03-08

2020

-03-22

2020

-04-05

2020

-04-19

2020

-05-03

2020

-05-17

2020

-05-31

2020

-06-14

2020

-06-28

2020

-07-12Pe

rcen

t Cha

nge

in A

ll C

onsu

mer

Spe

ndin

g



Business Activity: Inland Empire

Source: Homebase


Breakdown: Food & Drink

Source: Homebase


Mobility: Away from Home

Source: Opportunity Insights/Google

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

2020

-02-24

2020

-03-09

2020

-03-23

2020

-04-06

2020

-04-20

2020

-05-04

2020

-05-18

2020

-06-01

2020

-06-15

2020

-06-29

2020

-07-13

% o

f Tim

e Aw

ay F

rom

Hom

e


-32%

-27%

-22%

-17%

-12%

-7%

-2%

3%

2020

-02-24

2020

-03-09

2020

-03-23

2020

-04-06

2020

-04-20

2020

-05-04

2020

-05-18

2020

-06-01

2020

-06-15

2020

-06-29

2020

-07-13

% o

f Tim

e Aw

ay F

rom

Hom

e



Mobility: Retail and Recreation


-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

2020

-02-24

2020

-03-13

2020

-03-31

2020

-04-18

2020

-05-06

2020

-05-24

2020

-06-11

2020

-06-29

2020

-07-17

% o

f Tim

e in

Ret

ail a

nd R

ecre

atio

n


-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

2020

-02-24

2020

-03-13

2020

-03-31

2020

-04-18

2020

-05-06

2020

-05-24

2020

-06-11

2020

-06-29

2020

-07-17

% o

f Tim

e in

Ret

ail a

nd R

ecre

atio

n



Mobility: Workplace


-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

2020

-02-24

2020

-03-13

2020

-03-31

2020

-04-18

2020

-05-06

2020

-05-24

2020

-06-11

2020

-06-29

2020

-07-17

% o

f Tim

e in

the

Wor

kpla

ce


-55%

-45%

-35%

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

2020

-02-24

2020

-03-13

2020

-03-31

2020

-04-18

2020

-05-06

2020

-05-24

2020

-06-11

2020

-06-29

2020

-07-17

% o

f Tim

e in

the

Wor

kpla

ce



§ The San Bernardino County economy entered the crisis from a position of historic strength !

§ The recovery is underway, but it’s currently stalled

§ The labor market will not mend fully until 2022 "

§ The economy is tethered to the spread of the virus #

Conclusion


Thank You

[email protected] | ucreconomicforecast.org

the san bernardino county economy...2020/07/30 · employment – san bernardino county source:...

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