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The San Francisco Apartment Building Market Market Report for Residential 5+ Unit Buildings

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Page 1: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

The San FranciscoApartment Building Market

Market Report for Residential5+ Unit Buildings

Page 2: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

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400

450

500

Sale

s in

Mill

ion

s o

f D

olla

rs

San Francisco Apartment Building SalesTop 7 Brokers, 5+ Unit Residential Sales*

5+ Unit Multi-Family Residential Property Sales In Millions of Dollars

Top 7 Brokers in San Francisco

12 months MLS sales of 5+ unitbuildings, per Broker Metrics*

* 12 months dollar volume, transaction-side sales reported to MLS by 11/30/19, per Broker Metrics. Compass figures include Paragon, Pacific Union, Alain Pinel and Hill numbers with merger of brokerages.

-- Other San Francisco Brokerages --

Page 3: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Colliers ColdwellBanker

Vanguard Marcus &Millichap

Keller Williams Barbagelata

Sale

s in

Mill

ion

s o

f D

olla

rs

San Francisco Apartment Building SalesTop 7 Brokers, 5+ Unit Residential Sales*

5+ Unit Multi-Family Residential Property Sales In Millions of Dollars

Top 7 Brokers in San Francisco

12 months MLS sales of 5+ unitbuildings, per Broker Metrics*

* 12 months dollar volume, transaction-side sales reported to MLS by 11/30/19, per Broker Metrics. Compass figures include Paragon, Pacific Union, Alain Pinel and Hill numbers with merger of brokerages.

Page 4: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

5+ Unit Residential Building Markets

2019 Sales by San Francisco District

This analysis was performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject

to revision. Data from MLS sales. Adjusted for outlier sales, when identified. All numbers approximate.

San Francisco Realtor District 5-8 Units:

Median

Sales Price

9-15 Units:

Median Sales

Price

All 5+ Units:

Average

GRM/ Cap Rate*

All 5+ Units:

Average

$/Sq. Ft.

Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow &

Marina (District 7)

$4.8 million $7.8 million 17.7/ 4.0 $690/sq.ft.

North of Panhandle, Alamo Square, Hayes

Valley, Lower Pacific Heights (D6)

$3.33 million $6.5 million 16.2/ 4.3 $543/sq.ft.

Lake Street, Richmond District, Lone

Mountain, Jordan Park (District 1)

$2.25 million $6.14 million 17/ 3.8 $554/sq.ft.

Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys; Ashbury & Corona

Heights; Mission Dolores (D5)

$2.9 million $3.9 million 15.3/ 4.5 $566/sq.ft.

Russian, Nob & Telegraph Hills; North Beach,

Financial District (D8, North)

$3.6 million Too few sales for

analysis16.3/ 4.4 $576/sq.ft.

Sunset, Parkside (District 2) $2.3 million Too few sales for

analysis15.6/ 4.4 $466/sq.ft.

Inner Mission, Bernal Heights (D9) $2.7 million Too few sales for

analysis15.2/ 4.5 $488/sq.ft.

Downtown, Tenderloin, Van Ness/

Civic Center (D8 South)

Too few sales for

analysis

For 16-36 units

$7.35 million15.6/ 4.3 $542/sq.ft.

* GRM = Gross Rent Multiple. Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Dollar per square foot isbased upon the building’s interior living space and does not include garages, storage, unfinished attics and basements; or rooms built withoutpermit. Cap rate measures the % return on investment – income less expenses – if the property was purchased all cash. These statistics are grossgeneralities for sales with wide disparities in size, quality, rent control factors, and values.

Sales reported to MLS

Page 5: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

San Francisco 5+ Unit Apartment Building Sales2019 Sales by Price Segment

11

1817

24

6 6

1

4 4

6

11

5

3

1

5

7 7

$1.5m -$1.99m

$2m -$2.49m

$2.5m -$2.99m

$3m -$3.99m

$4m -$4.99m

$5m -$6.99m

$7m -$9.99m

$10m+

5-8 Unit Buildings 9-15 Unit Buildings 16+ Unit Buildings

Sales reported to MLS. “M” signifies millions of dollars. Data from sources deemed reliable, but subject to error and revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Median Sales Price, Median Size, Avg. $/Sq.Ft. Value• 5-8 Unit Bldgs $2.7m 5,000 sq.ft. $550/sq.ft.• 9-15 Unit Bldgs $5.8m 9,000 sq.ft. $568/sq.ft.• 16-30 Unit Bldgs $8.3m 15,000 sq.ft. $560/sq.ft.

Sales reported to MLS by 1/7/20

Page 6: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

Multi-Unit Residential Property Sales, 5+ Units2019 Sales by San Francisco District

9

1

8

11

5

10

15

24

2

1

2

3

3

7

4

4

7

4

2

1

1

2

5

6

1

Crocker Amazon,Visitacion Valley (D10)

Sunset/ Parkside (D2)

Downtown, Tenderloin,Civic Center (D8, S.)

Hayes Valley/ NoPa/Alamo Square (D6)

Mission, Bernal Heights

Pacific Heights/ Marina/Cow Hollow (D7)

Richmond/ Lake Street/Jordan Park (D1)

Russian, Nob & Tel Hills;North Beach (D8 N.)

Noe, Eureka &Cole Valleys (D5)

5-8 Units 9-15 Units 16 - 30 Units 31+ Units

Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. May not include all mixed-use building sales.

Sales reported to MLS by 1/6/20

The city’s 5+ unit apartment market isdominated by buildings of 5-8 units.

The great majority of SF apartment buildingswere constructed prior to 1940: Victorian,Edwardian, Spanish Mediterranean &Marina-Style architecture.

Almost all buildings sold in 2019 were ofwood-frame construction.

Page 7: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

Median Sales Price Trends since 2011 San Francisco 5-15 Unit Residential Apartment Buildings

$1.50

$2.64

$1.61

$2.75

$2.01

$3.55

$2.12

$4.35

$2.42

$4.64

$2.75

$4.76

$2.55

$4.83

$2.85

$5.98

$2.70

$6.09

$-

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

San Francisco 5-9 Unit Buildings San Francisco 10-15 Unit Buildings

Mill

ion

s o

f D

olla

rs

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Sales reported to MLS by 9/30/19. These prices are gross generalities reflecting sales of a wide variety ofbuildings in locations of differing values. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors andsubject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximations.

Median Sales Prices in MILLIONS of Dollars

Page 8: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

$2

32

$2

57

$2

97

$2

96

$3

30

$3

48

$2

66

$2

68

$2

84

$2

85

$3

96

$4

35

$5

01

$5

42

$5

33

$5

60

$5

57

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

$550

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8 t

o9

/15

/…

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

Because of the relatively small number of sales and the huge variety in buildings sold, average dollar persquare foot is a very general statistic when applied to investment property sales. Data is from sourcesdeemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.

San Francisco 5+ Unit Apartment Building SalesAverage Dollar per Square Foot Values

Sales reported to MLS

Page 9: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

Average Gross Rent MultiplesSan Francisco 5+ Unit Apartment Building Sales

14.3

16.0

12.512.1

13.2

15.3

16.5

17.617.8

17.3 17.3

15.9

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

2007 2008 to8/31/08

2009 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

GRM is calculated by dividing the sales price by the annual gross rents. It is a very general statistic and all numbersshould be considered approximate. This data is from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject torevision. Outlier sales that would distort the statistic were deleted from the analysis when identified. Based on dataprovided by listing agents.

Sales reported to MLS

Page 10: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

Average Cap RatesSan Francisco 5+ Unit Apartment Building Sales

4.64.7

5.8

6.0

5.4

4.8

4.0

3.83.9

4.03.9

4.3

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2008 to8/31/08

2009 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Capitalization rate calculations – sales price divided by net income (excluding mortgage costs), or return oninvestment as if the property had been purchased all cash – are only as good as the income and expense dataprovided by listing agents, and should be considered general approximations. Data from sources deemedreliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. Outlier sales that would distort the statistic weredeleted from analysis when identified.

Sales reported to MLS

Page 11: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

Average Price per UnitSan Francisco 5+ Unit Apartment Building Sales

$2

88

,000

$2

91

,000

$2

23

,00

0

$2

36

,000

$2

65

,00

0

$3

28

,000

$3

52

,000

$4

04

,000

$4

53

,000

$4

31

,000

$4

76

,000

$4

85

,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

2007 2008 to8/31/08

2009 -2010

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Because of the huge variety in buildings sold, this is a very general statistic when applied to SFinvestment property sales. This data is from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subjectto revision. Outlier sales deleted when identified. All numbers should be considered approximate.

Sales reported to MLS

Page 12: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

Average Price per Unit – Selected Submarkets5+ Unit Apartment Building Sales in 2019

$3

54

,00

0

$3

99

,00

0

$4

20

,00

0

$4

70

,00

0

$4

91

,00

0

$4

96

,00

0

$6

02

,00

0

$6

05

,00

0

Sunset - Parkside Tenderloin &Downtown

Richmond, LakeSt, Jordan Park

Inner Mission,Bernal Heights

Noe, Eureka, ColeValleys

Hayes Vly -NoPa - Alamo

Russian, Nob, TelHills; N. Beach

Pacific Heights -Marina

Neighborhood titles often stand for larger districts. Data from sources deemed reliable but may containerrors and subject to revision. Numbers should be considered very approximate since a very wide variety ofbuildings are in this mix.

Size of the building, size of the units, specific location, condition,architectural style, tenant profile, and current and potentialrent-generation of the units all affect this very general metric.

Page 13: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

86

97

74

69

48

6056

58

47

66

99

77

68

48

57 56

67

52

59

67

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

5-8 Units 9-15 Units

These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but maycontain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Average Days on Market until Acceptance of Offer

San Francisco Multi-Unit Residential Sales since 2010 Per MLS sales data reported by 1/6/20.

| Bottom of market |

Page 14: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

75

94

146

137

146

187

110

151 152157

143

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Sales reported to MLS by 1/6/20. These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived fromsources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers to beconsidered approximate.

Annual Sales VolumeSan Francisco 5+ Unit Residential Building Sales

| Bottom of market |

Page 15: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

San Francisco Apartment Building Market – 5+ Units

New Listings Coming on Market in Quarter

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Q4 2019Q3 2019Q2 2019Q1 2019Q4 2018Q3 2018Q2 2018Q1 2018Q4 2017Q3 2017Q2 2017Q1 2017Q4 2016

Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Based upon MLS

activity: Not all for-sale properties are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate and subject to revision.

5+ unit buildings, MLS listing activity, per Broker Metrics

The number of new listings in Q42019 was unusually low – perhapsdue to the new COPA legislation thatwent into effect in September.

Page 16: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

San Francisco Apartment Building Market – 5+ Units

Active Listings: Units Listed for Sale in Quarter

25

50

75

100

125

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

Q32018

Q42018

Q12019

Q22019

Q32019

Q42019

Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Based upon MLS

activity: Not all for-sale properties are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate and subject to revision.

5+ unit buildings, MLS listing activity, per Broker Metrics

Page 17: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

San Francisco Apartment Building Market – 5+ Units

Listings Closing Sale in Quarter since 2015

294644213933443835354635423035353015

20

25

30

35

40

45

Q4

20

19

Q3

20

19

Q2

20

19

Q1

20

19

Q4

20

18

Q3

20

18

Q2

20

18

Q1

20

18

Q4

20

17

Q3

20

17

Q2

20

17

Q1

20

17

Q4

20

16

Q3

20

16

Q2

20

16

Q1

20

16

Q4

20

15

Sales reported to MLS by January 7, 2020– additional sales may be reported for the quarter. Data from sources

deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.

Listings closing sale in 1 monthgenerally reflect accepted-offeractivity in the previous 2-3 months.

Page 18: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

$1,010

$1,340

$1,585

$1,874

$2,314

$1,948

$1,728

$1,877

$2,034

$2,326

$2,219

$2,663

$2,790

$3,057

$3,458

$3,620

$3,327 $3,376 $3,441

$3,505

$1,000

$1,250

$1,500

$1,750

$2,000

$2,250

$2,500

$2,750

$3,000

$3,250

$3,500

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

Average Residential Asking RentQ1 Data Points

Except as Noted

↑ Dotcom bubble pops

Per RealFacts LLC & Zillow Rent index

1st quarter data points except, as noted for last reading - per RealFacts LLC, for buildings with atleast 50 units. 2017-onward estimated using Zillow Rent Index data(https://www.zillow.com/research/data/#rental-data). Data from sources deemed reliable butmay contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.

Dotcom peak →

↑ 2008 financial markets crash

↑ 2012 recovery

San Francisco Residential Rents - Estimated

Weighted Average Asking Rent, Q1 Data Points, 1994 - Present

Last reading per Sept. -Nov. 2019 data

Page 19: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

$1,000

$1,250

$1,500

$1,750

$2,000

$2,250

$2,500

$2,750

$3,000

$3,250

$3,500

$3,750

$4,000

2011-0

2

20

11-0

5

20

11-0

8

20

11-1

1

20

12-0

2

20

12-0

5

20

12-0

8

20

12-1

1

20

13-0

2

2013-0

5

20

13-0

8

20

13-1

1

20

14-0

2

20

14-0

5

20

14-0

8

20

14-1

1

20

15-0

2

20

15-0

5

20

15-0

8

20

15-1

1

20

16-0

2

20

16-0

5

20

16-0

8

20

16-1

1

20

17-0

2

20

17-0

5

20

17-8

20

17-1

1

20

18-2

20

18-5

20

18-8

20

18-1

1

2019-0

2

20

19-0

5

20

19-0

8

20

19-1

1

San Francisco

San Mateo

Santa Clara

Alameda

Contra Costa

Estimated Median List Apartment Rents

Bay Area Counties since 2011

Per Zillow rental data by month: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/#rental-data. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Data per Zillow Research, 5+ unit buildings through November 2019

Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term fluctuations.

Marin County’s median list rent has recently been similar to that of Santa Clara County.

San Francisco has the highest median list rents in the nation.

Updated through November 2019

Page 20: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

$2,000

$2,250

$2,500

$2,750

$3,000

$3,250

$3,500

$3,750

$4,000

$4,250

$4,500

$4,750

$5,000

20

12

-01

20

12

-04

20

12

-07

20

12

-10

20

13

-01

20

13

-04

20

13

-07

20

13

-10

20

14

-01

20

14

-04

20

14

-07

20

14

-10

20

15

-01

20

15

-04

20

15

-07

20

15

-10

20

16

-01

20

16

-04

20

16

-07

20

16

-10

20

17

-01

20

17

-04

20

17

-7

20

17

-10

20

18

-01

20

18

-04

20

18

-7

20

18

-10

20

19

-01

20

19

-04

20

19

-07

2-Bedroom Unit

1-Bedroom Unit

Studio Apartment

San Francisco Median List Rents

by Unit Size (Bedroom Count) since 2012

Per Zillow Research, median list rental data by month: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/#rental-data . Data

from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.

Data per Zillow Research through August 2019

Median list rents can be affected by other factors besides changes in actual lease rates. Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term fluctuations.

Page 21: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

Median List Rent per Square FootSelected Bay Area Counties

$3.04 $3.12

$3.34

$3.70

$4.72

$3.88 $3.78

$3.86

$4.45

$5.49

$4.98

$4.45

$5.06

$5.98

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$5.50

$6.00

Alameda Santa Clara Marin San Mateo San Francisco

2-Bedroom Apt. 1-Bedroom Apt. Studio Apt.

Data per Zillow: Monthly average May-August 2019

From Zillow Research: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/#rental-data. Data from sourcesdeemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. Unit size and quality may vary bycounty. All numbers should be considered approximations.

N/A

The smaller the unit, the higher the rent per square foot. Smallerunits turn over more often, which can be good or bad forlandlords, depending on demand (vacancy rates), appreciationtrends and rent-control laws.

Page 22: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

$5.0

$5.5

20

10

-10

20

11

-04

20

11

-10

20

12

-04

20

12

-10

20

13

-04

20

13

-10

20

14

-04

20

14

-10

20

15

-04

20

15

-10

20

16

-04

20

16

-10

20

17

-04

20

17

-10

20

18

-04

20

18

-10

20

19

-04

20

19

-10

San Francisco

Santa Clara County

Alameda County

Median List Rental Price per Square Foot

San Francisco, Santa Clara, Alameda Counties since 2010

Per Zillow rental data by month: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/#rental-data. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Data per Zillow Research, 5+ unit buildings through November 2019

Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term fluctuations.

Page 23: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

San Francisco Employment Trends

Number of Employed Residents since 2000

375,000

400,000

425,000

450,000

475,000

500,000

525,000

550,000

575,000

Jan

-00

Jul-

00

Jan

-01

Jul-

01

Jan

-02

Jul-

02

Jan

-03

Jul-

03

Jan

-04

Jul-

04

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Jan

-15

Jul-

15

Jan

-16

Jul-

16

Jan

-17

Jul-

17

Jan

-18

Jul-

18

Jan

-19

Jul-

19

EDD data. Last month’s data is labeled “preliminary” by EDD. EDD often goes back to revise pastdata releases. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.

Per California Employment

Development Dept. (EDD)

Employment Numbers by MonthJanuary 2000 to November 2019

Dotcom peak

2007 – 2008 peak

Over the past 12 months, the San Franciscounemployment rate has ranged from 1.8% – its lowestreading ever – to 2.6%.

Page 24: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

Ebbs & Flows in SF Housing Construction

New-Construction Housing Units Completed by Year

532

909

1225

1859

1619

2260

2730

1780 1675

2197

3019

3366

1082

348

794

2330

3454

2472

4895

4270

2350

4300

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

Analysis includes condos, houses, rental apartment units, affordable housing, student and senior housing andunits in social housing projects. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject torevision. All numbers to be considered general approximations.

Per SF Planning Dept. Housing Inventory Report and other sources

Construction begins to pick up after early-nineties recession (following late-eighties boom)

Construction plunges following 2008 financial markets crash →

New construction includes condos, apartments,student, social and affordable housing. Approximately680 affordable housing units were added in 2019.

| 2012 Market recovery

Approx. 4000 newunits are projected tobe completed in 2020.

Page 25: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

$2,200

$2,400

$2,600

$2,800

$3,000

$3,200

$3,400

$3,600

$3,800

$4,000

20

11

-02

20

11

-05

20

11

-08

20

11

-11

20

12

-02

20

12

-05

20

12

-08

20

12

-11

20

13

-02

20

13

-05

20

13

-08

20

13

-11

20

14

-02

20

14

-05

20

14

-08

20

14

-11

20

15

-02

20

15

-05

20

15

-08

20

15

-11

20

16

-02

20

16

-05

20

16

-08

20

16

-11

20

17

-02

20

17

-05

20

17

-8

20

17

-11

20

18

-2

20

18

-5

20

18

-8

20

18

-11

20

19

-02

20

19

-05

20

19

-08

Median List Rent Trends

San Francisco since 2011

Per Zillow rental data by month: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/#rental-data. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Data per Zillow Research, 5+ unit buildings through August 2019

Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term fluctuations.

San Francisco has the highest median list rents in the nation.

Page 26: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

$5.0

20

10

-10

20

11

-01

20

11

-04

20

11

-07

20

11

-10

20

12

-01

20

12

-04

20

12

-07

20

12

-10

20

13

-01

20

13

-04

20

13

-07

20

13

-10

20

14

-01

20

14

-04

20

14

-07

20

14

-10

20

15

-01

20

15

-04

20

15

-07

20

15

-10

20

16

-01

20

16

-04

20

16

-07

20

16

-10

20

17

-01

20

17

-04

20

17

-07

20

17

-10

20

18

-01

20

18

-04

20

18

-07

20

18

-10

20

19

-01

Median List Rental Price per Square Foot

San Francisco Trends, October 2010 – March 2019

Per Zillow rental data by month: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/#rental-data. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Data per Zillow Research, 5+ unit buildings

All things being equal, smaller apartments willrent for higher prices per square foot.

Rents at recently constructed apartment buildingsare typically at the top end of rental $/sq.ft. rates.

Longer-term trends are more meaningful thanshort-term fluctuations.

Page 27: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

39

%

35

%

18

%

29

%

26

%

37

%

48

%

44

%

41

%

47

%

35

%

48

%

29

%

37

%

42

%

36

%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Q3

201

9

Q2

201

9

Q1

201

9

Q4

201

8

Q3

201

8

Q2

201

8

Q1

201

8

Q4

201

7

Q3

201

7

Q2

201

7

Q1

201

7

Q4

201

6

Q3

201

6

Q2

201

6

Q1

201

6

Q4

201

5

These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but maycontain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Percentage of Listings Sold in Quarter

San Francisco 5+ Unit Building Market Dynamics Per MLS sales data

Page 28: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

San Francisco New-Home Construction PipelineUnit Count Data per Socketsite 6/18/19 Analysis of Planning Dept. Q1 2019 Pipeline Report

8,500

16,800

33,500

14,050

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

UnderConstruction

Permits Issued,Approved or Requested

Approved/ Not YetPermitted

Project Proposalsunder Review

Net New Housing Units

New plans are constantly being filed and existing plans changed or even abandoned. Data from sources

deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Unit counts refer to “net-new” units. All numbers should

be considered general estimates.

Includes 3 large, long-term projects, which may take decades to

complete:

Candlestick – 10,500 unitsTreasure Island – 7800 units

Park Merced – 5680 units

Includes market-rate condos and rental units, as well as affordable (below-market-rate) and social project housing. Changes in economic/political conditions can quickly impact plans and construction.

Approximate median time from initial filing of plan to project completion:

Less than 10,000 sq.ft. – 38 months10,000 – 250,000 sq.ft. – 59 monthsMore than 250,000 sq.ft. – 71 months

Delivery expected within 1-2 years

Approval and construction still

nebulous

14,200 of these 72,850 units areplanned to be affordable/ below-market-rate housing.

Page 29: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

0

50

100

150

200

250

Prior to 19201920 - 1939

1940 - 19591960 - 1979

1980 & Later

233

100

25

66

4

Sales reported to MLS. These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources

deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers should be

considered general approximations.

San Francisco Residential 5+ Unit BuildingsSales by Era of Construction, 2016 - 2018

Sales reported to MLS

Period of Construction

Victorian & Edwardian buildings =

54% of sales

Spanish-Med, Art Deco &

Marina Style =23% of sales

Approximately 78% of San Francisco residential 5+ unitproperty sales are of buildings constructed prior to thebeginning of World War ll. In the 20 years after, new homeconstruction shifted to single family dwellings. From 1960 to1979, the city’s population actually dropped, though therewas a burst of new apartment construction. After 1980,condo construction dominated development in San Francisco.

It is only in recent years that substantial, new apartmentbuilding construction has begun again. As opposed to themostly smaller buildings - 24 units and less - of earlier eras,recent construction is concentrated in very large buildingswith high unit counts.

Page 30: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

San Francisco Commercial Lease Rates

Class A Commercial Asking Rent

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

$80

$85

$90

Average Class A Commercial per-Square-Foot Asking Rent

Data per SF Office of the Controller/ Jones Lang LaSalle through Q3 2019. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.

↑ 2008 market crash

SF commercial rents last hit $60/sq.ft.

at the height of the dotcom era.

Minor quarterly fluctuations are less

meaningful than longer-term trends.

Page 31: The San Francisco Apartment Building Market

Note that the quantity of sales in any given local submarket is usually relatively small and/or the number of sales that report thenecessary financial information can be limited. Buildings of different ages, qualities and sizes selling in different periods can causethese average and median figures to fluctuate significantly. Furthermore, the reliability of some of these calculations dependsupon the quality of the income and expense figures provided by the listing agents, and sometimes instead of actual numbers,much less meaningful projected or scheduled figures are used. Therefore, the above statistics should be considered very generalindicators, and how they apply to any particular property without a specific comparative market analysis is unknown. If you wouldlike such a specific analysis, please contact me.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject torevision. Statistics are generalities and all numbers should be considered approximate.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has beenprepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available tothe public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy orcompleteness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation anyexpress or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing containedherein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not providesuch advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of anystatements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performanceis no guarantee of future results.

© 2018 Compass