the san francisco apartment building market
TRANSCRIPT
The San FranciscoApartment Building Market
Market Report for Residential5+ Unit Buildings
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Sale
s in
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San Francisco Apartment Building SalesTop 7 Brokers, 5+ Unit Residential Sales*
5+ Unit Multi-Family Residential Property Sales In Millions of Dollars
Top 7 Brokers in San Francisco
12 months MLS sales of 5+ unitbuildings, per Broker Metrics*
* 12 months dollar volume, transaction-side sales reported to MLS by 11/30/19, per Broker Metrics. Compass figures include Paragon, Pacific Union, Alain Pinel and Hill numbers with merger of brokerages.
-- Other San Francisco Brokerages --
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50
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Colliers ColdwellBanker
Vanguard Marcus &Millichap
Keller Williams Barbagelata
Sale
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San Francisco Apartment Building SalesTop 7 Brokers, 5+ Unit Residential Sales*
5+ Unit Multi-Family Residential Property Sales In Millions of Dollars
Top 7 Brokers in San Francisco
12 months MLS sales of 5+ unitbuildings, per Broker Metrics*
* 12 months dollar volume, transaction-side sales reported to MLS by 11/30/19, per Broker Metrics. Compass figures include Paragon, Pacific Union, Alain Pinel and Hill numbers with merger of brokerages.
5+ Unit Residential Building Markets
2019 Sales by San Francisco District
This analysis was performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject
to revision. Data from MLS sales. Adjusted for outlier sales, when identified. All numbers approximate.
San Francisco Realtor District 5-8 Units:
Median
Sales Price
9-15 Units:
Median Sales
Price
All 5+ Units:
Average
GRM/ Cap Rate*
All 5+ Units:
Average
$/Sq. Ft.
Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow &
Marina (District 7)
$4.8 million $7.8 million 17.7/ 4.0 $690/sq.ft.
North of Panhandle, Alamo Square, Hayes
Valley, Lower Pacific Heights (D6)
$3.33 million $6.5 million 16.2/ 4.3 $543/sq.ft.
Lake Street, Richmond District, Lone
Mountain, Jordan Park (District 1)
$2.25 million $6.14 million 17/ 3.8 $554/sq.ft.
Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys; Ashbury & Corona
Heights; Mission Dolores (D5)
$2.9 million $3.9 million 15.3/ 4.5 $566/sq.ft.
Russian, Nob & Telegraph Hills; North Beach,
Financial District (D8, North)
$3.6 million Too few sales for
analysis16.3/ 4.4 $576/sq.ft.
Sunset, Parkside (District 2) $2.3 million Too few sales for
analysis15.6/ 4.4 $466/sq.ft.
Inner Mission, Bernal Heights (D9) $2.7 million Too few sales for
analysis15.2/ 4.5 $488/sq.ft.
Downtown, Tenderloin, Van Ness/
Civic Center (D8 South)
Too few sales for
analysis
For 16-36 units
$7.35 million15.6/ 4.3 $542/sq.ft.
* GRM = Gross Rent Multiple. Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Dollar per square foot isbased upon the building’s interior living space and does not include garages, storage, unfinished attics and basements; or rooms built withoutpermit. Cap rate measures the % return on investment – income less expenses – if the property was purchased all cash. These statistics are grossgeneralities for sales with wide disparities in size, quality, rent control factors, and values.
Sales reported to MLS
San Francisco 5+ Unit Apartment Building Sales2019 Sales by Price Segment
11
1817
24
6 6
1
4 4
6
11
5
3
1
5
7 7
$1.5m -$1.99m
$2m -$2.49m
$2.5m -$2.99m
$3m -$3.99m
$4m -$4.99m
$5m -$6.99m
$7m -$9.99m
$10m+
5-8 Unit Buildings 9-15 Unit Buildings 16+ Unit Buildings
Sales reported to MLS. “M” signifies millions of dollars. Data from sources deemed reliable, but subject to error and revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Median Sales Price, Median Size, Avg. $/Sq.Ft. Value• 5-8 Unit Bldgs $2.7m 5,000 sq.ft. $550/sq.ft.• 9-15 Unit Bldgs $5.8m 9,000 sq.ft. $568/sq.ft.• 16-30 Unit Bldgs $8.3m 15,000 sq.ft. $560/sq.ft.
Sales reported to MLS by 1/7/20
Multi-Unit Residential Property Sales, 5+ Units2019 Sales by San Francisco District
9
1
8
11
5
10
15
24
2
1
2
3
3
7
4
4
7
4
2
1
1
2
5
6
1
Crocker Amazon,Visitacion Valley (D10)
Sunset/ Parkside (D2)
Downtown, Tenderloin,Civic Center (D8, S.)
Hayes Valley/ NoPa/Alamo Square (D6)
Mission, Bernal Heights
Pacific Heights/ Marina/Cow Hollow (D7)
Richmond/ Lake Street/Jordan Park (D1)
Russian, Nob & Tel Hills;North Beach (D8 N.)
Noe, Eureka &Cole Valleys (D5)
5-8 Units 9-15 Units 16 - 30 Units 31+ Units
Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. May not include all mixed-use building sales.
Sales reported to MLS by 1/6/20
The city’s 5+ unit apartment market isdominated by buildings of 5-8 units.
The great majority of SF apartment buildingswere constructed prior to 1940: Victorian,Edwardian, Spanish Mediterranean &Marina-Style architecture.
Almost all buildings sold in 2019 were ofwood-frame construction.
Median Sales Price Trends since 2011 San Francisco 5-15 Unit Residential Apartment Buildings
$1.50
$2.64
$1.61
$2.75
$2.01
$3.55
$2.12
$4.35
$2.42
$4.64
$2.75
$4.76
$2.55
$4.83
$2.85
$5.98
$2.70
$6.09
$-
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
San Francisco 5-9 Unit Buildings San Francisco 10-15 Unit Buildings
Mill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sales reported to MLS by 9/30/19. These prices are gross generalities reflecting sales of a wide variety ofbuildings in locations of differing values. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors andsubject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximations.
Median Sales Prices in MILLIONS of Dollars
$2
32
$2
57
$2
97
$2
96
$3
30
$3
48
$2
66
$2
68
$2
84
$2
85
$3
96
$4
35
$5
01
$5
42
$5
33
$5
60
$5
57
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8 t
o9
/15
/…
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
Because of the relatively small number of sales and the huge variety in buildings sold, average dollar persquare foot is a very general statistic when applied to investment property sales. Data is from sourcesdeemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
San Francisco 5+ Unit Apartment Building SalesAverage Dollar per Square Foot Values
Sales reported to MLS
Average Gross Rent MultiplesSan Francisco 5+ Unit Apartment Building Sales
14.3
16.0
12.512.1
13.2
15.3
16.5
17.617.8
17.3 17.3
15.9
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2007 2008 to8/31/08
2009 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GRM is calculated by dividing the sales price by the annual gross rents. It is a very general statistic and all numbersshould be considered approximate. This data is from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject torevision. Outlier sales that would distort the statistic were deleted from the analysis when identified. Based on dataprovided by listing agents.
Sales reported to MLS
Average Cap RatesSan Francisco 5+ Unit Apartment Building Sales
4.64.7
5.8
6.0
5.4
4.8
4.0
3.83.9
4.03.9
4.3
2
3
4
5
6
2007 2008 to8/31/08
2009 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Capitalization rate calculations – sales price divided by net income (excluding mortgage costs), or return oninvestment as if the property had been purchased all cash – are only as good as the income and expense dataprovided by listing agents, and should be considered general approximations. Data from sources deemedreliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. Outlier sales that would distort the statistic weredeleted from analysis when identified.
Sales reported to MLS
Average Price per UnitSan Francisco 5+ Unit Apartment Building Sales
$2
88
,000
$2
91
,000
$2
23
,00
0
$2
36
,000
$2
65
,00
0
$3
28
,000
$3
52
,000
$4
04
,000
$4
53
,000
$4
31
,000
$4
76
,000
$4
85
,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
2007 2008 to8/31/08
2009 -2010
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Because of the huge variety in buildings sold, this is a very general statistic when applied to SFinvestment property sales. This data is from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subjectto revision. Outlier sales deleted when identified. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Sales reported to MLS
Average Price per Unit – Selected Submarkets5+ Unit Apartment Building Sales in 2019
$3
54
,00
0
$3
99
,00
0
$4
20
,00
0
$4
70
,00
0
$4
91
,00
0
$4
96
,00
0
$6
02
,00
0
$6
05
,00
0
Sunset - Parkside Tenderloin &Downtown
Richmond, LakeSt, Jordan Park
Inner Mission,Bernal Heights
Noe, Eureka, ColeValleys
Hayes Vly -NoPa - Alamo
Russian, Nob, TelHills; N. Beach
Pacific Heights -Marina
Neighborhood titles often stand for larger districts. Data from sources deemed reliable but may containerrors and subject to revision. Numbers should be considered very approximate since a very wide variety ofbuildings are in this mix.
Size of the building, size of the units, specific location, condition,architectural style, tenant profile, and current and potentialrent-generation of the units all affect this very general metric.
86
97
74
69
48
6056
58
47
66
99
77
68
48
57 56
67
52
59
67
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
5-8 Units 9-15 Units
These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but maycontain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Average Days on Market until Acceptance of Offer
San Francisco Multi-Unit Residential Sales since 2010 Per MLS sales data reported by 1/6/20.
| Bottom of market |
75
94
146
137
146
187
110
151 152157
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sales reported to MLS by 1/6/20. These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived fromsources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers to beconsidered approximate.
Annual Sales VolumeSan Francisco 5+ Unit Residential Building Sales
| Bottom of market |
San Francisco Apartment Building Market – 5+ Units
New Listings Coming on Market in Quarter
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Q4 2019Q3 2019Q2 2019Q1 2019Q4 2018Q3 2018Q2 2018Q1 2018Q4 2017Q3 2017Q2 2017Q1 2017Q4 2016
Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Based upon MLS
activity: Not all for-sale properties are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate and subject to revision.
5+ unit buildings, MLS listing activity, per Broker Metrics
The number of new listings in Q42019 was unusually low – perhapsdue to the new COPA legislation thatwent into effect in September.
San Francisco Apartment Building Market – 5+ Units
Active Listings: Units Listed for Sale in Quarter
25
50
75
100
125
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Q42015
Q12016
Q22016
Q32016
Q42016
Q12017
Q22017
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Q22018
Q32018
Q42018
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Based upon MLS
activity: Not all for-sale properties are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate and subject to revision.
5+ unit buildings, MLS listing activity, per Broker Metrics
San Francisco Apartment Building Market – 5+ Units
Listings Closing Sale in Quarter since 2015
294644213933443835354635423035353015
20
25
30
35
40
45
Q4
20
19
Q3
20
19
Q2
20
19
Q1
20
19
Q4
20
18
Q3
20
18
Q2
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q4
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q4
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q4
20
15
Sales reported to MLS by January 7, 2020– additional sales may be reported for the quarter. Data from sources
deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Listings closing sale in 1 monthgenerally reflect accepted-offeractivity in the previous 2-3 months.
$1,010
$1,340
$1,585
$1,874
$2,314
$1,948
$1,728
$1,877
$2,034
$2,326
$2,219
$2,663
$2,790
$3,057
$3,458
$3,620
$3,327 $3,376 $3,441
$3,505
$1,000
$1,250
$1,500
$1,750
$2,000
$2,250
$2,500
$2,750
$3,000
$3,250
$3,500
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Average Residential Asking RentQ1 Data Points
Except as Noted
↑ Dotcom bubble pops
Per RealFacts LLC & Zillow Rent index
1st quarter data points except, as noted for last reading - per RealFacts LLC, for buildings with atleast 50 units. 2017-onward estimated using Zillow Rent Index data(https://www.zillow.com/research/data/#rental-data). Data from sources deemed reliable butmay contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
Dotcom peak →
↑ 2008 financial markets crash
↑ 2012 recovery
San Francisco Residential Rents - Estimated
Weighted Average Asking Rent, Q1 Data Points, 1994 - Present
Last reading per Sept. -Nov. 2019 data
$1,000
$1,250
$1,500
$1,750
$2,000
$2,250
$2,500
$2,750
$3,000
$3,250
$3,500
$3,750
$4,000
2011-0
2
20
11-0
5
20
11-0
8
20
11-1
1
20
12-0
2
20
12-0
5
20
12-0
8
20
12-1
1
20
13-0
2
2013-0
5
20
13-0
8
20
13-1
1
20
14-0
2
20
14-0
5
20
14-0
8
20
14-1
1
20
15-0
2
20
15-0
5
20
15-0
8
20
15-1
1
20
16-0
2
20
16-0
5
20
16-0
8
20
16-1
1
20
17-0
2
20
17-0
5
20
17-8
20
17-1
1
20
18-2
20
18-5
20
18-8
20
18-1
1
2019-0
2
20
19-0
5
20
19-0
8
20
19-1
1
San Francisco
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Alameda
Contra Costa
Estimated Median List Apartment Rents
Bay Area Counties since 2011
Per Zillow rental data by month: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/#rental-data. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Data per Zillow Research, 5+ unit buildings through November 2019
Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term fluctuations.
Marin County’s median list rent has recently been similar to that of Santa Clara County.
San Francisco has the highest median list rents in the nation.
Updated through November 2019
$2,000
$2,250
$2,500
$2,750
$3,000
$3,250
$3,500
$3,750
$4,000
$4,250
$4,500
$4,750
$5,000
20
12
-01
20
12
-04
20
12
-07
20
12
-10
20
13
-01
20
13
-04
20
13
-07
20
13
-10
20
14
-01
20
14
-04
20
14
-07
20
14
-10
20
15
-01
20
15
-04
20
15
-07
20
15
-10
20
16
-01
20
16
-04
20
16
-07
20
16
-10
20
17
-01
20
17
-04
20
17
-7
20
17
-10
20
18
-01
20
18
-04
20
18
-7
20
18
-10
20
19
-01
20
19
-04
20
19
-07
2-Bedroom Unit
1-Bedroom Unit
Studio Apartment
San Francisco Median List Rents
by Unit Size (Bedroom Count) since 2012
Per Zillow Research, median list rental data by month: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/#rental-data . Data
from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
Data per Zillow Research through August 2019
Median list rents can be affected by other factors besides changes in actual lease rates. Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term fluctuations.
Median List Rent per Square FootSelected Bay Area Counties
$3.04 $3.12
$3.34
$3.70
$4.72
$3.88 $3.78
$3.86
$4.45
$5.49
$4.98
$4.45
$5.06
$5.98
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
Alameda Santa Clara Marin San Mateo San Francisco
2-Bedroom Apt. 1-Bedroom Apt. Studio Apt.
Data per Zillow: Monthly average May-August 2019
From Zillow Research: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/#rental-data. Data from sourcesdeemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. Unit size and quality may vary bycounty. All numbers should be considered approximations.
N/A
The smaller the unit, the higher the rent per square foot. Smallerunits turn over more often, which can be good or bad forlandlords, depending on demand (vacancy rates), appreciationtrends and rent-control laws.
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
$4.5
$5.0
$5.5
20
10
-10
20
11
-04
20
11
-10
20
12
-04
20
12
-10
20
13
-04
20
13
-10
20
14
-04
20
14
-10
20
15
-04
20
15
-10
20
16
-04
20
16
-10
20
17
-04
20
17
-10
20
18
-04
20
18
-10
20
19
-04
20
19
-10
San Francisco
Santa Clara County
Alameda County
Median List Rental Price per Square Foot
San Francisco, Santa Clara, Alameda Counties since 2010
Per Zillow rental data by month: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/#rental-data. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Data per Zillow Research, 5+ unit buildings through November 2019
Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term fluctuations.
San Francisco Employment Trends
Number of Employed Residents since 2000
375,000
400,000
425,000
450,000
475,000
500,000
525,000
550,000
575,000
Jan
-00
Jul-
00
Jan
-01
Jul-
01
Jan
-02
Jul-
02
Jan
-03
Jul-
03
Jan
-04
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan
-09
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
Jan
-14
Jul-
14
Jan
-15
Jul-
15
Jan
-16
Jul-
16
Jan
-17
Jul-
17
Jan
-18
Jul-
18
Jan
-19
Jul-
19
EDD data. Last month’s data is labeled “preliminary” by EDD. EDD often goes back to revise pastdata releases. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Per California Employment
Development Dept. (EDD)
Employment Numbers by MonthJanuary 2000 to November 2019
Dotcom peak
2007 – 2008 peak
Over the past 12 months, the San Franciscounemployment rate has ranged from 1.8% – its lowestreading ever – to 2.6%.
Ebbs & Flows in SF Housing Construction
New-Construction Housing Units Completed by Year
532
909
1225
1859
1619
2260
2730
1780 1675
2197
3019
3366
1082
348
794
2330
3454
2472
4895
4270
2350
4300
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Analysis includes condos, houses, rental apartment units, affordable housing, student and senior housing andunits in social housing projects. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject torevision. All numbers to be considered general approximations.
Per SF Planning Dept. Housing Inventory Report and other sources
Construction begins to pick up after early-nineties recession (following late-eighties boom)
Construction plunges following 2008 financial markets crash →
New construction includes condos, apartments,student, social and affordable housing. Approximately680 affordable housing units were added in 2019.
| 2012 Market recovery
Approx. 4000 newunits are projected tobe completed in 2020.
$2,200
$2,400
$2,600
$2,800
$3,000
$3,200
$3,400
$3,600
$3,800
$4,000
20
11
-02
20
11
-05
20
11
-08
20
11
-11
20
12
-02
20
12
-05
20
12
-08
20
12
-11
20
13
-02
20
13
-05
20
13
-08
20
13
-11
20
14
-02
20
14
-05
20
14
-08
20
14
-11
20
15
-02
20
15
-05
20
15
-08
20
15
-11
20
16
-02
20
16
-05
20
16
-08
20
16
-11
20
17
-02
20
17
-05
20
17
-8
20
17
-11
20
18
-2
20
18
-5
20
18
-8
20
18
-11
20
19
-02
20
19
-05
20
19
-08
Median List Rent Trends
San Francisco since 2011
Per Zillow rental data by month: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/#rental-data. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Data per Zillow Research, 5+ unit buildings through August 2019
Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term fluctuations.
San Francisco has the highest median list rents in the nation.
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
$4.5
$5.0
20
10
-10
20
11
-01
20
11
-04
20
11
-07
20
11
-10
20
12
-01
20
12
-04
20
12
-07
20
12
-10
20
13
-01
20
13
-04
20
13
-07
20
13
-10
20
14
-01
20
14
-04
20
14
-07
20
14
-10
20
15
-01
20
15
-04
20
15
-07
20
15
-10
20
16
-01
20
16
-04
20
16
-07
20
16
-10
20
17
-01
20
17
-04
20
17
-07
20
17
-10
20
18
-01
20
18
-04
20
18
-07
20
18
-10
20
19
-01
Median List Rental Price per Square Foot
San Francisco Trends, October 2010 – March 2019
Per Zillow rental data by month: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/#rental-data. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Data per Zillow Research, 5+ unit buildings
All things being equal, smaller apartments willrent for higher prices per square foot.
Rents at recently constructed apartment buildingsare typically at the top end of rental $/sq.ft. rates.
Longer-term trends are more meaningful thanshort-term fluctuations.
39
%
35
%
18
%
29
%
26
%
37
%
48
%
44
%
41
%
47
%
35
%
48
%
29
%
37
%
42
%
36
%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Q3
201
9
Q2
201
9
Q1
201
9
Q4
201
8
Q3
201
8
Q2
201
8
Q1
201
8
Q4
201
7
Q3
201
7
Q2
201
7
Q1
201
7
Q4
201
6
Q3
201
6
Q2
201
6
Q1
201
6
Q4
201
5
These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but maycontain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Percentage of Listings Sold in Quarter
San Francisco 5+ Unit Building Market Dynamics Per MLS sales data
San Francisco New-Home Construction PipelineUnit Count Data per Socketsite 6/18/19 Analysis of Planning Dept. Q1 2019 Pipeline Report
8,500
16,800
33,500
14,050
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
UnderConstruction
Permits Issued,Approved or Requested
Approved/ Not YetPermitted
Project Proposalsunder Review
Net New Housing Units
New plans are constantly being filed and existing plans changed or even abandoned. Data from sources
deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Unit counts refer to “net-new” units. All numbers should
be considered general estimates.
Includes 3 large, long-term projects, which may take decades to
complete:
Candlestick – 10,500 unitsTreasure Island – 7800 units
Park Merced – 5680 units
Includes market-rate condos and rental units, as well as affordable (below-market-rate) and social project housing. Changes in economic/political conditions can quickly impact plans and construction.
Approximate median time from initial filing of plan to project completion:
Less than 10,000 sq.ft. – 38 months10,000 – 250,000 sq.ft. – 59 monthsMore than 250,000 sq.ft. – 71 months
Delivery expected within 1-2 years
Approval and construction still
nebulous
14,200 of these 72,850 units areplanned to be affordable/ below-market-rate housing.
0
50
100
150
200
250
Prior to 19201920 - 1939
1940 - 19591960 - 1979
1980 & Later
233
100
25
66
4
Sales reported to MLS. These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources
deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers should be
considered general approximations.
San Francisco Residential 5+ Unit BuildingsSales by Era of Construction, 2016 - 2018
Sales reported to MLS
Period of Construction
Victorian & Edwardian buildings =
54% of sales
Spanish-Med, Art Deco &
Marina Style =23% of sales
Approximately 78% of San Francisco residential 5+ unitproperty sales are of buildings constructed prior to thebeginning of World War ll. In the 20 years after, new homeconstruction shifted to single family dwellings. From 1960 to1979, the city’s population actually dropped, though therewas a burst of new apartment construction. After 1980,condo construction dominated development in San Francisco.
It is only in recent years that substantial, new apartmentbuilding construction has begun again. As opposed to themostly smaller buildings - 24 units and less - of earlier eras,recent construction is concentrated in very large buildingswith high unit counts.
San Francisco Commercial Lease Rates
Class A Commercial Asking Rent
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
$85
$90
Average Class A Commercial per-Square-Foot Asking Rent
Data per SF Office of the Controller/ Jones Lang LaSalle through Q3 2019. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
↑ 2008 market crash
SF commercial rents last hit $60/sq.ft.
at the height of the dotcom era.
Minor quarterly fluctuations are less
meaningful than longer-term trends.
Note that the quantity of sales in any given local submarket is usually relatively small and/or the number of sales that report thenecessary financial information can be limited. Buildings of different ages, qualities and sizes selling in different periods can causethese average and median figures to fluctuate significantly. Furthermore, the reliability of some of these calculations dependsupon the quality of the income and expense figures provided by the listing agents, and sometimes instead of actual numbers,much less meaningful projected or scheduled figures are used. Therefore, the above statistics should be considered very generalindicators, and how they apply to any particular property without a specific comparative market analysis is unknown. If you wouldlike such a specific analysis, please contact me.
These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject torevision. Statistics are generalities and all numbers should be considered approximate.
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has beenprepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available tothe public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy orcompleteness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation anyexpress or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing containedherein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not providesuch advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of anystatements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performanceis no guarantee of future results.
© 2018 Compass