the shelf in 2017 - oljedirektoratet 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014...
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T H E S H E L F I N 2 0 1 7Director Genera l Bente Ny land
11 j anua r y 2018
Main trends in 2017
• Record‐high Norwegian gas sales
• Increase in total oil and gas production
• Significant cost cuts
• Record number of development plans
• Too few exploration wells and small discoveries
Oil price has doubled over the last two years
Source: EIF, spot, FOB
Dollar p
er fa
t
2015 2016 2017 2018
Dol
lar p
er b
arre
l
C O S T S
Cheaper to produceOperating costs down by 30 per cent
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Inde
x (le
vel in 20
13=1
00)
Forecast autumn 2013 Autumn 2017
High activity and stable investment level
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Billion
201
8‐NOK
Discoveries
Ongoing field developments
Fields in production (2014‐2017)
Fields in production before 2014
The Shelf 2016
Stable exploration activities
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Num
ber o
f exploratio
n wells
Billion
201
8‐NOK
Exploration costs The Shelf 2016 Number of exploration wells
P R O D U C T I O N
Increasing oil and gas production
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Million ba
rrels o
e pe
r day
Million Sm
³ oe per yea
r
Gas (40 MJ)NGLCondensateOil
Record‐high Norwegian gas sales
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Billion
Scf per day
Billion
Sm³ (40
MJ sales gas)
Long‐term production at a high level
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Million bb
l oe pe
r day
Million Sm
³ oe pe
r yea
r
HistoricUndiscovered resourcesResources in discoveries
Resources in fieldsReservesThe Shelf 2016
Medium‐sized oil companies becoming more important
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Num
ber o
f com
panies
Small companies
Medium‐sized companies
European gas/power companies
Majors
Large Norwegian companies
*incl. ongoing changes/mergers
E X P L O R A T I O N
Few and small discoveries in 2017
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Millione
r Sm³ o
.e.
Discoveries do not replace production
Average size of discoveries
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Million Sm
³ oe
Resource growth Production
Milli
on S
m3
oe
New seismic technology provides new opportunities in “old acreage”
163D‐seismic aquired the last 5‐6 years
2007 2017
17
Exploration is profitable2007‐2016
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Total NCS North Sea Barents Sea Norwegian Sea
Presen
t value
201
7, billion NOK
Cash flow 4% discount rate 7% discount rate
4% discount rate
7% discount rate
Much left to discover –most of it in the North
18
Resource growth after 1990
19
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Million Sm
³ oe
Undiscovered resources
Contingent resources
Reserves
Sold and delivered
Serie5
F I E L D S A N D N E W D E V E L O P M E N T S
Five new fields on stream in 2017
Source: Aker BP ASA Source: Wintershall
FlyndreSource: Offshore Magazine
Source: Statoil Source: XVISION A/S 2010
Gina Krog Maria
Byrding Sindre
Yme (New development) Repsol
Skogul Aker BPSnorre (SEP) StatoilFenja VNG
Njord (Njord future) Statoil
Ærfugl Aker BP
Ekofisk Sør (2/4 VC) ConocoPhillips
10 development plans in 2017
Johan Castberg Statoil
Valhall flanke vest Aker BP
Bauge Statoil
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Num
ber o
f develop
men
t wells
Movable rig
Fixed rig
¾
Many development wells – even in challenging times
on fields
High reserve growth in 2017
0,0
1,5
3,0
4,5
6,0
7,5
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
billion
bbl oil
Million Sm
³ oil
Discoveries
Fields
25
THE SHELF IN 2017
• High production in the years to come
• Gas record
• Significant cost cuts
• Many new field developments
• Need for more exploration
• Great opportunities in the North