The socio-economic impact of large projects: the Square Kilometre Array

Philip Diamond(CSIRO Astronomy and Space Science)

SKA Japan WorkshopNAOJ Mitaka, 4-5 November 2010

Blue Skies

Quantum physics – what was it good for?

When laser was in

vented,

there was no conceivable application

‘I think there is a world market for maybe 5 computers’

Thomas J Watson, founder of IBM.

Explaining electromagnetism to then Chancellor

of the Exchequer William Gladstone, Michael

Faraday was asked, ’But after all, what use is it?’

He famously, but perhaps apocryphally, replied,

’Why sir, there is every probability you will be

able to tax it’.

Business or Investment cases

• Terminology may differ from country to country but requirements are shared:

– Need to demonstrate the strongest possible case for the project to our paymasters

– Use language and measurables they care about

– Have to work in a cooperative but realistic (funding, schedule) way

Royal Society: The Scientific Century

What is the return from investment in SKA?

• Some questions to be answered

• Science

– ‘Open skies’ or restricted?

– Regional support centres?

• Industrial return

– In-kind contributions?

– Geo-return to industry?

– Depends on technology choices?

• As a tool for innovation and societal development?

• Never forget the ‘wow’ factor . Astronomy is the undoubted world-leader in exciting the next-generation of scientists and engineers and their parents – the taxpayers……

Impact of Radio Astronomy: specific examples

• Development of cheap low-noise-amplifiers of benefit for telecommunications industry.

• Radio imaging algorithms had strong influence on medical tomography, NMR imaging, finger-print detection, speed cameras!

• Development of intensity interferometry by Hanbury-Brown and Twiss at Jodrell Bank in 1950s led to quantum cryptography

• Very Long Baseline Interferometry measures rotational parameters of Earth, directly useful to GPS and navigation: civil and military applications.

• Need to locate mobile antennas in France led to founding of Cambridge Positioning Systems Ltd, techniques used by GPS and Galileo

• NEOs: using radar astronomy to determine orbits of NEOs

Phew! That was close….

Arecibo radar image: 2005 YU55

Wifi : story of IEEE 802.11

• The Netherlands: 1970

Wifi : story of IEEE 802.11

The next 802.11?????

• John O’Sullivan with the ASKAP Phased Array Feed

LOFAR as a recent example of impact

• 75% of contracts spent in North-NL - did not happen by magic:

– Knowledge transfer via small R&D projects built up expertise in local companies bid on LOFAR tenders

– expertise level of companies increased dramatically in decade, now able to compete for other "high tech" projects

• LOFAR multidisciplinary - not just astronomy but also geophysics,meteorology, agriculture, passive radar etc but the astronomyapplication pushes computing networking, archiving etc.

LOFAR as a recent example of impact

• LOFAR started the concept of generic sensor networks. In north Netherlands there is an organisation called Sensor Universe in which ASTRON is a founding member

• There is now ~€100M investment by NL government in Sensor Universe - generic sensors – much more than was ever provided for LOFAR and this trend is set to continue over the next few years.

Impact of Astronomy

• dishes

– low cost - high performance

– ASKAP - 36 x 12-m from CETC54 in China

– MeerKAT, DRAO - new techniques for moulded composite dishes

• focal plane arrays

– large number of feeds and receivers in lightweight, compact package

• aperture arrays

– low cost/unit area

– novel designs include ORA by Zhang/Brown et al (Manchester)

– defence and communications applications

Specific SKA examples of potential impact

• For SKA the network is the telescope

• Raw data rate from the telescopes ~1 Pb/s; world’s current internet traffic is ~30 Tb/s – at current rate of growth expected to reach ~1 Pb/s around 2020 SKA will require the invention of a global sensor network

• ICT SKA impact summary by Bruce Elmegreen of IBM

Specific SKA examples of potential impact

Specific SKA examples of potential impact

• SKA will require ~100MW to power the full array and its data processing

• Challenge to distribute power to remote locations

• Potential solution: green energy

Specific SKA examples of potential impact

• Eicke Weber: Director, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy– SKA will play a global leadership role as an iconic scientific

project aspiring to run 24/7 on 100% Renewable Energy (RE);

– SKA will provide an opportunity to create a launch pad for reliable, green power generation in remote areas;

– SKA will drive innovative solutions in generation, distribution, efficiency and demand reduction in a harsh environment.

– SKA will act as a trailblazer in the implementation of multi-scale, reliable storage and generation solutions through early competitive evaluation;

– SKA will innovate the combination of multi-scale distributed RE sources and storage sites

Big Science Benefits

• Scale, technical demands, purchasing power, industrial links

• CERN: €1 spent in industry €3 'utility' (ie extra turnover + cost savings)

– Schmied+ (1975); Bianchi-Streit+ (1984)

– robust number

– extra utility = 60% CERN budget in 9yr period

– similar results for ESA

People: astronomy attracts the best

• Science requires investment, infrastructure and an enabling policy environment, but its most important resource is people.

• Of equal importance is the excitement that such science (astronomy, particle physics etc) can engender in the public.

Statistics from the UK

Careers outside science

Early Career Research Permanent Research Staff Professor

Non-universityresearch (industry,government etc)

Scientific Diplomacy

• ‘Many of the challenges we face today are international and—whether it’s tackling climate change or fighting disease—these global problems require global solutions . . . That is why it is important that we create a new role for science in international policymaking and diplomacy . . . to place science at the heart of the progressive international agenda.’

Rt Hon Gordon Brown MP,

Three dimensions of scientific diplomacy

1. informing foreign policy objectives with scientific advice (science in diplomacy)

2. facilitating international science cooperation (diplomacy for science);• Projects like ITER, LHC and SKA are large, inherently risky and

beyond the capacity of any one country to build. Science can be a bridge to encourage stronger diplomatic ties between countries.

3. using science cooperation to improve international relations between countries (science for diplomacy): – the soft power of science, e.g. CERN post-WWII, VLBI in the

Cold War

Funding climate (courtesy John Womersley – Chairman of Agencies SKA Group)

• Not necessarily the best time to ask for billions…• Global downturn affecting public spending• Pressure on funders• Emphasis on prioritisation and focus on the highest

• Challenging right now, but…

• SKA has a hugely sellable case!• Transformational science for our communities

– Knowledge, excitement and inspiration• Developmental/innovation case• Demonstrable economic benefits• Inherently global

SKA timeline over next few years

• Current bodies: SSEC – SKA Science and Engineering Committee

ASG – Agencies SKA group

SPDO – SKA Project Development Office

• December 2011: current funding and agreements finish, so new plans and structure need to be put in place

• November 2010: proposals for location of SKA HQ due (UK, NL, IT, DE, USA)

• March 2011: decision on HQ + decision to form SKA Company (legal entitiy) formation of SKA Council (one governent rep + one science rep from participating countries)

• July 2011: decision to fund pre-construction phase of SKA; 90 Meuro required. ASG believe they can identify 70MEuro now.

• July 2011: start search for SKA Director

• Jan 2012: New Director, SKA HQ formed, pre-construction phase starts

• April 2012: SKA site selected

Project Execution Plan: 2012-2015

• Major work-packages to be funded in pre-construction phase: Jan 2012 – Dec 2015

– Management: ~60 people at SKA HQ, strong system engineering team

– SKA System Design

– Science

– Dishes

– Aperture Array Elements

– Signal Transport and Networks

– Signal Processing

– Computing and Software

– Power

– Site Preparation

• Requires 90MEuro. Participating governments will provide funding, expectation that work-packages will be undertaken by radio astronomy institute/industry consortia in countries that provide money.