The State of Mississippi’s Economy

November 13, 2008

Oktibbeha County Leadership Development

Per Capita Income

$38,564

$19,477

$28,527

$13,089

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

US MS

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Non-Farm Monthly Employment Growth

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Ind

ex

19

39

= 1

00

US MS

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and IHL Calculations

Mississippi Employment by Major Industry, 1990 - 2008

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Th

ou

san

ds

of

Job

s

MFG Trade, Trans. & Utilities Services Gov.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Goods Producing Verses Service Producing Jobs in MS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Th

ou

san

ds

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Goods Services

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Mississippi 14.7%United States 10.1%

Less than 10%

10% to 20%

20% and Above

No Manufacturing

Manufacturing Employment as a Percentage of Total Employment, 2007

0.0%

Issaquena

0.0%Jefferson 0.9%

Jeff. Davis

1.5%

Tunica

2.1%Sharkey

3.6%Simpson

3.8%

Montgomery

3.8%Tallahatchie

3.9%

Hinds4.3%

Claiborne

4.3%

Greene

5.1%Harrison

5.5%

Neshoba

5.6%George

6.0%

Franklin

6.3%Adams

6.7%

Forrest

7.0%Pearl River

7.4%

Rankin

7.5%Lamar

7.8%Oktibbeha

8.3%Hancock

8.8%

Quitman

8.9%Lafayette

9.0%

Wilkinson

9.0%

Coahoma

9.3%

Lincoln

9.9%Sunflower

10.1%

Washington

10.1%

Lauderdale

10.6%Yazoo

11.7%De Soto

12.8%Marion

13.8%

Tate

13.8%Stone

14.1%Bolivar

14.6%

Marshall

15.3%

Lowndes

16.7%

Carroll16.8%

Choctaw

17.4%

Wayne

17.6%

Pike

17.9%

Warren

18.4%Madison

18.6%

Panola

18.7%Leflore

18.8%

Holmes19.1%Attala

20.4%Yalobusha

20.6%

Clarke

21.6%Webster

21.9%

Benton

22.0%

Alcorn

23.5%Humphreys

24.3%Lee

24.7%

Newton

25.2%

Walthall

25.3%

Lawrence

25.4%

Kemper

25.8%Calhoun

26.0%

Covington

26.5%Copiah

27.3%Jones

27.4%Itawamba

27.9%

Leake

28.3%Monroe29.1%

Grenada

29.1%Union

29.2%Jackson

30.2%

Winston

31.1%Perry

31.5%Clay

31.6%

Jasper

32.1%Prentiss

33.6%

Amite

37.2%Tishomingo

37.6%

Noxubee

37.8%

Smith

38.3%

Tippah

44.7%

Scott

47.9%Chickasaw

58.8%Pontotoc

Mississippi Non-Farm Earnings By Major Source, 2007

$13,371

$9,416

$8,562

$5,515

$5,017

$3,384

$2,755

$2,712

$1,680

$1,460

$433

$826

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000

Government

Trade, Transportation and Utilities

Manufacturing

Health Care and Social Assistance

Professional and Business Services

Construction

FInancial Activities

Leisure and Hospitality

Other Services

Natural Resources and Mining

   Information

   Educational services

Millions of $

0.8%

1.5%

2.6%

3.0%

4.9%

5.0%

6.1%

9.1%

15.5%

17.1%

10.0%

Percentages represent share of total in 2007

MS Total Nonfarm Earnings in 2007, was $55.1 Billion

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

24.3%

Mississippi Retail SalesThree Month Moving Average

$2,300

$3,300

$4,300

$5,300

$6,300

$7,300

$8,300

$9,300

$10,300

$11,300

$12,300

Mill

ion

s o

f 2

00

4 $

Source: Mississippi Tax Commission and IHL Calculations

Mississippi Retail SalesJan. – July, 2005 VS. 2008

Loss

0.0% to 15.0%

Between 15% and 25%

Greater than 25%

Source: Mississippi Tax Commission

Mississippi 19.0%

Hancock

-31.4%

Issaquena

-27.9%

Quitman

-20.5%Choctaw

-15.1%

Benton

-10.6%

Montgomery

-8.8%Yalobusha

-8.4%Coahoma

-7.7%Claiborne

-3.8%

Newton

-3.2%Humphreys

-1.9%Tunica

-1.1%

Tishomingo

-0.9%Attala

-0.4%Webster

2.1%

Washington

2.2%Grenada

3.6%Simpson

4.1%Chickasaw

4.5%Tate

4.6%

Marshall

4.9%

Jeff. Davis

6.2%

Wayne

7.3%

Winston

8.2%Lee

9.2%

Monroe

10.5%Perry

10.6%

Kemper

10.6%Oktibbeha

10.9%

Lowndes

11.2%

Leflore

11.2%

Alcorn11.9%

De Soto

12.3%Yazoo

12.7%

Hinds

13.2%

Clay13.6%

Sunflower

13.7%

Lauderdale

13.9%

Noxubee

14.0%

Pike

14.2%Calhoun

15.2%Panola

15.4%

Lincoln

16.1%Bolivar

16.2%

Scott16.7%

Rankin

17.2%

Madison

17.2%

Leake

17.2%Sharkey

17.3%

Smith

17.6%

George

19.9%

Wilkinson

21.0%

Neshoba

21.5%

Greene

21.6%Prentiss

21.8%

Holmes

23.0%

Lafayette

23.5%Marion

24.0%

Warren

24.3%Covington

24.8%

Amite

25.1%Franklin

26.4%Lawrence

27.5%Itawamba

27.7%

Tippah

27.9%

Carroll

29.4%Harrison

31.0%

Stone

33.4%Lamar

33.8%Jones

37.6%Jefferson

38.9%Adams

39.5%

Forrest

41.3%Copiah

43.7%

Pontotoc

48.9%

Pearl River

52.4%

Jackson

59.2%Union

70.1%

Clarke

72.1%

101.1%

Walthall

135.1%

Jasper

174.0%Tallahatchie

Retail Sales Pull Factor, 2006

Less than 0.50

0.51 to .75

.75 to 1.00

1.00 and over

Source: Mississippi Tax Commission and IHL Calculations

0.19Carroll

0.24Benton

0.27Amite

0.29Tallahatchie

0.30Issaquena

0.31Kemper

0.33Lawrence

0.33Franklin

0.34Quitman

0.36Clarke

0.37Jefferson

0.38Yalobusha

0.38Greene

0.40Choctaw

0.41Holmes

0.41Walthall

0.44Calhoun

0.44Perry

0.45Marshall

0.45Smith0.46

Claiborne

0.46Webster

0.47Noxubee

0.48Itawamba

0.49Tippah

0.50Wilkinson

0.51Jeff. Davis

0.52Newton

0.53Yazoo

0.54Copiah

0.54Clay

0.54Pontotoc

0.55Sunflower

0.55Jasper

0.56Monroe

0.57Sharkey

0.58Tate

0.59Chickasaw

0.60Humphreys

0.62Leake

0.62Prentiss0.63

Union

0.64Montgomery

0.65Simpson

0.67Hancock

0.70Winston

0.70Coahoma

0.71Attala

0.71Scott

0.73Bolivar

0.76Covington

0.80Neshoba

0.81George

0.82Oktibbeha

0.82Lafayette

0.83Warren

0.84Madison

0.85Stone0.89

Pearl River0.90

Jackson

0.90Panola

0.90Leflore

0.93De Soto

0.94Wayne

0.95Washington

0.98Alcorn

1.02Lowndes

1.02Hinds

1.07Marion

1.07Adams

1.08Jones

1.08Lauderdale

1.12Lincoln

1.12Rankin

1.16Pike

1.18Grenada

1.25Lee

1.31Forrest

1.46Harrison

1.48Lamar

2.17Tunica

0.63Tishomingo

Mississippi Average Fall Enrollment by Grade, 1995-2005

41,695

26,003

28,836

34,278

40,425

37,865

40,071

38,603

38,616

38,864

38,846

39,275

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

1stGrade

2ndGrade

3rdGrade

4thGrade

5thGrade

6thGrade

7thGrade

8thGrade

9thGrade

10thGrade

11thGrade

12thGrade

Fa

ll S

tud

en

t E

nro

llme

nt

Average Number of Births 6 Years Prior to 1st Grade 42,353

Average Number of “Traditional” Graduates 23,722

On average, for the last 10 school years,about 41,700 students entered 9th grade, yetonly 26,000 enrolled in the 12th grade. Evenless graduated with a traditional H.S.diploma. What happens each year to lose those 15,700+ students?

Source: Annual Reports of the State Superintendent of Public Education

Public SchoolAchievementLevel Index

Mississippi 426

0 -199 level 1200-299 level 2300-399 level 3400-499 level 4500-600 level 5

242Quitman

275Amite

278Jefferson

280Tallahatchie

289Holmes

294Issaquena

294Sharkey

304Jefferson Davis

311Marshall313

Tunica

322Sunflower

326Humphreys

327Carroll

328Coahoma

331Adams

349Panola

349Yazoo

356Noxubee

356Kemper

359Leflore

368Copiah

368Walthall

375Clay

376Simpson

376Wilkinson

376Franklin

380Oktibbeha

380Jasper

381Chickasaw

386Warren

386Winston

389Washington

389Bolivar

393Hinds

394Benton

396Calhoun

399Pike

400Lowndes401

Choctaw

402Scott

403Marion

407Covington

412Leake

416Smith

419Tate

420Neshoba

422Stone

423Monroe

424Lauderdale

427Clarke

429George

432Lawrence

437Pearl River

440Montgomery

441Lincoln 443

Forrest

443Wayne

444Jones

444Alcorn

445Greene

453Itawamba

454Yalobusha

455Perry

456Attala

456Webster

460Hancock

464Madison

465Lee

465Grenada

472Lafayette

475Tippah

480Prentiss

481Rankin

482Newton

485Jackson

491De Soto

493Harrison

498Claiborne

504Tishomingo

508Lamar

511Pontotoc

512Union

0 to 300300 to 400400 to 500500 to 600

Mississippi BirthsSource: MS Department of Health Annual Reports

41332 40978 4152742917 42678

44075

42227 4151142321 42809 42327

46046

18744 18458 18853 19500 19603 20272 19590 19556 1989020684 20908

24323

7319 7068 6932 6978 6845 6787 6231 5925 5670 5726 56336619

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Births Single Mother Births Single Teen Mother Births

45.3% 47.1%45.9%45.4%45.4%45.0% 46.4%46.0%

30.3%31.8%33.5%34.9%35.8%36.8%38.3%39.0

%

Percentage of births to single mothers

Percentage of single mother births to single teen mothers

48.3%47.0%

27.7%28.5%

49.4%

26.9%

52.8%

27.2%

Workforce Participation by Educational Attainment Mississippians 25-64 Years of Age, 2005

56.9%

72.2%

78.8%84.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

H.S.Dropout

H.S.Diploma

SomeCollege orAA Degree

Bachelor'sDegree or

Higher

Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey

Unemployment Rateby Educational Attainment Mississippians 25-64 Years of Age, 2005

12.6%

7.5%

5.6%

2.9%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

H.S.Dropout

H.S.Diploma

SomeCollege orAA Degree

Bachelor'sDegree or

Higher

Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey

Median Annual Earningsby Educational Attainment Mississippians 25-64 Years of Age, 2005

$16,966

$21,631

$26,160

$44,275

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

H.S.Dropout

H.S.Diploma

SomeCollege orAA Degree

Bachelor'sDegree or

Higher

Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey

Mississippi Medicaid Program Analysis by Educational Attainment

44.09%

29.33%

3.05%4.34%

10.62%10.56%

12.94%

263,976

167,878

92,541

42,711

18,21112,210

3,3560%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Children Dropouts High SchoolDiploma

SomeCollege butno degree

AssociatesDegree

BachelorsDegree

Masters orhigherDegree

Pro

bab

liit

y o

f R

eceiv

ing

Med

icaid

Ben

efi

ts

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Nu

mb

er

of

Med

icaid

Ben

efi

cia

ries

High School Dropouts are approximately 18% of Mississippi's Population, but they have a higher probability ( 29%) of receiving Medicaid benefits.There are an estimated 167,878 high school dropouts on Medicaid in Mississippi.

Mississippi Male Incarceration Ratesby Educational Attainment

2.39%

0.99%

0.73%

0.17%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

H.S.Dropout

H.S.Diploma

SomeCollege orAA Degree

Bachelor'sDegree or

Higher

Source: Calculated for 2000 Census and US Department of Justice Data

Investing in Education

Some Graduate orHigh School College or Bachelor's Professional

Costs Dropout Diploma AA Degree Degree DegreeK-12 Education Cost 44,014$ 52,702$ 52,702$ 52,702$ 52,702$ Medicaid & Incarceration 38,712$ 19,766$ 17,595$ 6,497$ 5,775$ School Cost Beyond H.S. 8,612$ 24,120$ 37,520$ Total Cost to State 82,726$ 72,468$ 78,909$ 83,319$ 95,997$

Tax Returns to the State 59,097$ 87,412$ 117,696$ 177,445$ 229,810$

Net Returns to the State (23,629)$ 14,944$ 38,787$ 94,126$ 133,813$

Returns Per $1 Invested 0.71$ 1.21$ 1.49$ 2.13$ 2.39$

Source: Calculations by IHL based on Appropriations data for 2005

Net Returns to the State from Individuals by Educational Attainment

($23,629)

$14,944

$94,126

$133,813

($40,000)

($20,000)

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

H.S.Dropout

H.S.Diploma

SomeCollege orAA Degree

Bachelor'sDegree or

Higher

Source: Calculations based on education costs and 45 Years of lifetime work.

State Public Lifetime Costs and Benefits to Mississippi by Educational Attainment of Individuals

Source: Calcuations based on 2005 Annual Median Earnings, Education and Other Costs

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

H.S. Dropout H.S. Diploma Some College or AAdegree

B.S. Degree Graduate or Professional

State Lifetime Public Costs for 45 years State Lifetime Public Benefits over 45 years

% of MS Adults in each group

21.55 % 32.03 % 27.75 % 12.15 % 6.52 %

For each $ invested in education, the simple return to the state by education attainment is

$0.71 $1.21

$1.49 $2.13 $2.39