The Strategic Direction of the Second National Development Plan (2015/16-

2019/20)

NPA

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline Background to the Strategic Direction What informs the NDPII Strategic Direction NDPII Strategic Direction

Theme Objectives Strategies Development Priorities Preliminary Macroeconomic strategy

1.0 Background to the strategic Direction1.0 Background to the strategic Direction In 2007, the Government of Uganda adopted the

Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework (CNDPF)

It embodies long, medium and short term development planning at various levels of national administration.

To operationalise CNDPF, Uganda Vision 2040 was produced with an aim of transforming Uganda from a peasant and low-income country to a competitive upper middle –income country by 2040

Background Cont’dBackground Cont’dConceptually, The Uganda Vision 2040 revolves around

strengthening the fundamentals(Infrastructure, Human Capital etc) so as to harness the abundant opportunities(Agriculture, Tourism, minerals etc).

To achieve the Vision aspirations, NDPI (2010/11-2014/15) has been implemented and is ending in this FY.

NDPII is under formulation

What informs the NDPII Strategic Direction?

2.What informs NDPII strategic Direction?2.What informs NDPII strategic Direction?

The Uganda Vision 2040The NDPI Mid-Term ReviewRegional and International Development Contexts

EAC Monetary Union ProtocolsAfrica Agenda 2063The Post 2015 Sustainable Development Agenda

2.1NDPII Prioritization Framework2.1NDPII Prioritization Framework

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NDPII PRIORITISED

AREAS

Agriculture, Mineral, Tourism,

Infrastructure Human Capital

Development

UGANDA

VISION 2040

NDPII Theme

OBJECTIVES & TARGETS

(MACRO)

SECTORAL INVESTMENT

INTERVENTIONS

FINANCING

(GOVT –MTEF, PRIVATE

SECTOR, PPPs)

SDPs & LGDPs

PIP

NDP1 (MTR)

RESULTS

DEVELOPMENT PRIORITIES:

12 Agricultural Enterprises 5 Mineral Products;

10 Tourism Products

Infrastructure Human Capital Development

VALUE CHAIN

ANALYSIS

2.2 STRATEGIC DIRECTION: Theme and Objectives

Theme “Strengthening Uganda’s competitiveness for Sustainable Wealth creation, employment and inclusive growth”.

Objectives

1. Increase sustainable production, productivity and value addition in key primary growth drivers

2. Increase the stock and quality of strategic infrastructure to accelerate the country’s competitiveness

3. Enhance human capital development

4. Strengthen mechanisms for quality, effective and efficient service delivery

2.3 NDPII Strategies Increase competiveness and positioning the country to

benefit from regional and global integrationValue addition for increased export earnings and

employment. Strengthen the private sector with strong local participation

in the quasi-market approach. Investment in Infrastructure through fiscal expansion.Fast tracking of skills development through reforms in

education and training curricular. Strengthening institutions/ institutional framework

(especially accountability) to increase efficiency in resource utilisation.

2.4 Development Priorities

Agriculture The largely subsistence nature of agriculture requires

urgent need to invest in increased commercial production and productivity enhancement.

Prioritized enterprises: Cotton, Coffee, Tea, Maize, Rice, Cassava, Beans, Fish, Beef, Milk, Citrus and Bananas.

Uganda’s Agricultural Value Chain Focuses on; Production, Transportation, Storage,

Processing and Marketing and Distribution

Development Priorities Cont’d

Tourism Justification Tourism Value Chain

Focuses on; pre-visit activities, international and local transportation, information and reception services, hospitality industry, excursions, as well as, tourists’ attractions and amenities.

Development Priorities Cont’dMineral Development

Justification Mineral Development Value Chain

Focuses on; exploration, mining, mineral processing, smelting and refining, as well as, value addition

Development Priorities Cont’d

Infrastructure Transport

Standard Gauge Railway Strategic roads Water Transport

Energy solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and hydropower, so as

to increase power generation

Development Priorities

Oil and Gas Refinery Pipeline

Water for Production ICT

Development Priorities

Human Capital Development Twin-track approach - long-term and short-term

Long-term focus: Increasing quality and quantity of basic education (primary to

secondary). Provision of appropriate skills development as needed in the

economy. Reducing fertility (to attain a more favourable age structure), Reducing maternal and infant mortality, thereby raising the life

expectancy Increasing the mean years of schooling (to keep pupils, particularly

girls, in school for fertility reduction); Improvement of nutrition outcomes especially for women of

reproductive age and children below 5-years

Development Priorities Cont’d

Human Capital Development Short-term focus:

Provision of technical and specialized skills especially for the youth who have either completed tertiary training or dropped out of primary and secondary education.

Increasing the contraceptive prevalence rate Reduction in the number of maternal deaths Reduction in number of cases and deaths due to malaria

especially among children and pregnant mothers; and

2.5 Preliminary Macroeconomic Strategy2.5 Preliminary Macroeconomic Strategy

Growth will be driven by export growth oriented productivity changes and public investment, at a conservative average rate of about 8 percent.

Infrastructure spending will be the major driver for the fiscal deficit peaking at 9% of GDP by 2017/18

Domestic resource mobilization will be a corner stone for the next NDP, particularly focusing on raising corporation tax revenues, widening the VAT coverage and improving efficiency of tax collection

Oil revenues are expected to initially be about 0.5% of GDP in 2018/19 and gradually increase over the years.

Preliminary Macroeconomic Strategy Preliminary Macroeconomic Strategy Cont’dCont’d

Expenditures are expected to peak to 23-24% of GDP owing to infrastructure expenditure in the critical years of the NDP; Based on the MTR findings, NDPII will sequence spending priorities

Monetary policy will be guided by the desire to keep macroeconomic stability by maintaining inflation between 5-10%.

External concessional and semi-concessional financing will remain the key sources for borrowing over the medium-term

For God and my CountryFor God and my Country

Wednesday, April 19, 2023

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