the texas weekly/texas tribune insider poll for the week ... · inside intelligence: the texas...

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 17 June 2016

The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll

for the week of 17 June 2016


TheTexasDemocraticPartyisholdingitsstateconventionthisweek.Basedontheprimariesandtherunoffs,areDemocratsmakingelectoralprogress?

•"EvenwithPatrick,TrumpandCruz,Republicansnowholdmorestateandlocalofficesthanatanytimeinhistory."

•"Notsureit's'progress,'butratherthepresidentialturnoutthatwillflipafewseatsthiscycle.AppearsmanyRsarestilldoingeverythingpossibletoprovideanassistinturningTexasblue."

•"TheywillflipafewseatsbecauseofTrump.ButI'mnotsureI'dcallthat

progress,becauseit'snottheirdoing—it'shis."

•"Bepatient,the2030censuswillgetheresoonenough.Until,anticipatemoreofthesame."

•"HillaryisnottheidealcandidatetomovetheneedleinTexas!"

•"Dswilllikelypickupafewseatsthisfall...unfortunately,itwillnotbebecauseofanybrilliantthey'vedone


butratherthebuffooneryoftheRepublicans."

•"AretheymeetingintheoldGOPphoneboothfromthe1980s?"

•"They'respinningtheirtiresinmudrightnow,butTrump'scandidacymightallowthemtogainsometraction."

•"They'vebeenstuckinneutralthelast3cycles.And,really,actuallylosinggroundsincetheyarelosingseatsatthelocallevel.80-plusTexascountieswithnoDemocratsontheballot—that'snotgood.AlthoughwithTrumpontheballot,theycouldgetluckyandknockoffsomeRepublicanswhoareintighterORVSdistricts."

•"IthasnothingtodowiththeDemocraticParty,andmoretodowithchangingdemographicsin'limited'Districts.IfthePartywasactually'...makingelectoralprogress...,'thequestionwouldn'tbelimitedtoflipping'afewseats.'"

•"ButtheTrumpClintonfactorisanunknown.WillClintonreallycompete

inTexas?Ifso,theywillmakesomegainsifnotstuckinneutral."

•"TheDemocrats'futuredependsonthenationalelection."

•"ThefastestgrowingHispanicpopulationdoesn'tlikepro-abortioncandidates."

•"TheDemsseemstuckonthewrongsideoftoomanyissuestoappealtoright-of-centerTexaselectorate.TheykeephopingthatwhenHispanicscomeofageandstartvotingthattheywillsupportDemocrats.It'sapipedream."

•"Theyareconsideringanti-oilandgaslanguageinplatformdrivenbyliberaleliteswhileHispanicsarelaidoff,what?IrememberaDemocraticPartythatfoughtforjobs."

•"TrumpisalltheDshavegoing."

•"Mr.TrumpcouldactuallyturnitaroundfortheDemocraticParty;ontheirown,theycan't."

HillaryClintonisnowtheDemocrats’presumptivenominee.WhatishereffectonTexasDemocraticgeneralelectionvoters?

•"Bernieyardsignsstillcovermyneighborhood."

•"SheisassumingshegetstheBillClintonsupportersofthepast.Manyofthemhateher.Theystilllovehimbutcannotstandher.Bubbaconnectswithvoters;sheusesthemandthatishowtheyseeher."

•"AHispanicsurnamefromTexaswoulddriveturnoutupsome—and

couldhelpintheGallegorace.Butnotmuchelseandcertainlynostatewideeffect."

•"Thiscycleisbeyondbizarre...whotheheckknows?"

•"Iexpectturnoutthispresidentialtobesimilarto2012.Thatsaid,IthinkyouwillhavesomecrossoverRsvotingD—butthathasnothingtodowith


Clinton.It'sallabouttheidiottheRsnominated."

•"DonaldTrumpwillmotivatefarmoreDemocrats(andIndependents)thanHillaryClinton."

•"Acrookandliaratthetopoftheticket—backtothefuturewhenanotherClintonsaidanythingtogetelected."

•"IstillseemoreBerniebumperstickersthanHillarystickersaroundtown...arethosepeoplefireduptovoteforhercomeNovember?"

•"Iwouldhopeshewouldhaveacoattaileffect,butthatwillprobablyonlyhappeninthemetropolitanareas."

•"She'spolledwellinTexasformanyyears.Shewillbegoodforthemhere."

•"Obama's2008votersfailedtoshowupagainin2012.Theresultwillbethe

samein2016,exceptthattheyarenowHillary'sproblem."

•"Ifthisisthemostnegativecampaigninrecenthistoryturnoutdrops."

•"She'snottrusted.Andnotlikable."

•"HillaryisadragontheticketinTexas.TheDemocrats'onlyhopeisthatTrumpcanignitethepassionoftheleftinawaythatHillaryneverwill."

•"Honestly,itisTrumpbringingupvoterregistrationontheDsideandnotHollary."

•"PeteGallegocanstartdraftinghis'thankyou'notetoPresident-electClinton."

•"MainlyinSouthTexas"

WhatvotersshouldTexasDemocratsbetryingtoattractrightnow?

•"Bernieyardsignsstillcovermyneighborhood."

•"Trumpappealstomanyworkingclass;DemocratsandClintondoesnot.Sheappears,andis,aloof,eliteandcorruptedintheireyes.TheyvoteTrump.TheDemsneedtoshoreuptheirownbase.Areyoukidding,trytoattractRepublicansandmoderates/independents?Ha!"

•"AsthetruebelieversintheRepublicanpartymovetheneedletotheright,thoseinthemiddlearemigratingelsewhere."

•"AstheRsshifttoa'teaparty'mentality,theyareleavingthebusinesscommunitybehind.ThisistheperfecttimefortheDstoembracethechamberofcommercetypes,andiftheydo,itcouldbeagenerationalshift."

•"Forthelast20-plusyears,alotofpeoplehavebeensaying,'Ididn'tleavetheDemocratParty,theDemocratPartyleftme.'NOWpeoplewillbesayingthatabouttheRepublicanParty!"

•"IndependentsaresickoftheGOPsocialhoopla.ButHillaryisgettingpulledhardtotheleftbytheElizabethWarrenwingoftheparty.IfTexasDs


weresmart,theywouldstealthe'smallgovernment'mantrafromtheRsandownthatmessage."

•"Pro-business,sociallymoderate"

•"Irefusetocallthem'liberalRepublicans'—theyarenotliberalatall—theyareTHINKINGRepublicanswhorefusetobeledbythecrazywackosintheirparty,buttheyarebynomeansliberal.Infact,mostofthemareTRUErepublicans—nofakeChristianhatemongerswehavenow."

•"TheyneedtobuildaconservativeDemocratbench."

•"Everyonetheycan."

•"Raisingtheturnoutwillchangetheoutcome."

•"DenyingGodintheirplatformmakesDemocratsmostlyunpopularinTexas."

•"TheDemsmustcomeoffthehardleftandmigratetothemiddleiftheyeverhopetoregainrelevanceinTexas."

•"Anyvoters.TheycontinuetolosevotersbecausetheycontinuetoopposeTexans.Theyappealtothefringe.JustaskWendy."

•"EvenacommonsenseRepublicanwon'tvoteforHillary;but,iftheydo,theyarekeepingitquiet."

•"Theyhavetoadmittheirproblemfirst."

•"Iftheydon'tstoplosingstraightticketvoting,whichisoverhalfthevote,theywillneverelectanyonestatewideagain."

HowwilltheDemocrats’statewidecandidatesdothisyear?

•"DemocratswillbleedHispanicvotersattheSupremeCourtlevel."

•"TheDemshavenoleader.Theyareindisarrayandthetopoftheticketisoutoftouch."

•"Whatstatewidecandidates?RailroadCommissioner?Please."

•"Theywilllosethemall.Justlikethehaveforthepastdecade-plus."

•"Statewide...who???That'stheproblem."

•"TrumpwillbeadragfortheRs...statewideDsonlylosebylowdoubledigits!"

•"KeepaneyeontheRailroadCommissionrace.Iftheyaretomakestrides,it'sthere."

•"Istilldon'tthinkwetakeastatewideoffice—sadforusDems."

•"UnlessDemocratscanconvinceabout1.4millionmorevoterstosuddenlyshowup,theresultwillbethesameforthem.TexasDemocratshaven'tbeenabletoelectstatewidesince1994,andholdthelongestlosing


streakinnation(20years).2016willadd2moreyearstothetotal!"

•"TrumpwillbetheDs'greatestgiftinalongtime."

•"Honestly,howcouldtheydoworse?They'vealreadylostALLstatewideraces.Youcan'tdoworsethanthat."

•"It'shardtogodownwhenyouareatthebottom,butiftheycouldtheywould."

•"Allfools."

•"Notmanyracesstatewide."

Ourthankstothisweek'sparticipants:GeneAcuna,CathieAdams,ClydeAlexander,JayArnold,CharlesBailey,AndrewBiar,AllenBlakemore,TomBlanton,ChrisBritton,LydiaCamarillo,KerryCammack,ElnaChristopher,HaroldCook,RandyCubriel,BethCubriel,CurtisCulwell,DeniseDavis,JuneDeadrick,HollyDeShields,GlennDeshields,TomDuffy,DavidDunn,RichardDyer,JackErskine,BruceGibson,StephanieGibson,WayneHamilton,BillHammond,DeborahIngersoll,JasonJohnson,MarkJones,RobertKepple,RichardKhouri,TomKleinworth,SandyKress,DaleLaine,PeteLaney,JamesLeBas,LukeLegate,RubenLongoria,MattMackowiak,BryanMayes,JasonMcElvaney,SteveMinick,BeeMoorhead,MikeMoses,ToddOlsen,GardnerPate,TomPhillips,WaynePierce,RichardPineda,AllenPlace,GaryPolland,JayPritchard,TedMelinaRaab,PatrickReinhart,DavidReynolds,CarlRichie,A.J.Rodriguez,JeffRotkoff,GrantRuckel,AndySansom,BarbaraSchlief,StanSchlueter,RobertScott,SteveScurlock,BenSebree,EdSmall,LarrySoward,LeonardSpearman,DennisSpeight,SaraTays,JayThompson,TreyTrainor,CorbinVanArsdale,WareWendell,DavidWhite,DarrenWhitehurst,SethWinick,PeckYoung,AngeloZottarelli.

the texas weekly/texas tribune insider poll for the week ... · inside intelligence: the texas...

Documents