the third quarter of 2014 analysis of all industrial activites in japan summary
Post on 26-Jul-2015
294 views
TRANSCRIPT
The Third Quarter of 2014Analysis of All Industrial Activities in Japan
Summary
November 27, 2014 releaseEconomic Analysis Office
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)
JAPAN(ENGLISH) http://www.meti.go.jp/english/statistics/bunseki/index.html(JAPANESE) http://www.meti.go.jp/statistics/toppage/report/bunseki/index.html
Contents
[Trends of All Industrial Activities] I-1 Outline of all industrial activities ............................1 I-2 Outline of industrial activities .................................2 I-3 Outline of tertiary industry activities ......................9 [Supply Trends for Final Demand] II-1 Outline of supply trends for final demand .............12 II-2 Supply trends for consumption .............................13 II-3 Supply trends for investment ................................14 II-4 Export trends .........................................................15 II-5 Import trends .........................................................17
Outline of all industrial activities • The indices of all industrial activities decreased for the second consecutive quarter, down by 0.1%
from the previous quarter. • In spite of increases in the indices of tertiary industry activities and construction industry activity, the
indices of industrial production decreased.
Index Level (2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted) Ratio to the Previous Quarter,
Contribution Ratio to Growth Rate
IV2013
I└
II2014
III-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2(%)
Indices of Government Services, etc.Indices of Construction Industry ActivityIndices of Tertiary Industry ActivityIndices of Industrial ProductionIndices of All Industrial Activities
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
I└
II2009
III IV┘
I└
II2010
III IV┘
I└
II2011
III IV┘
I└
II2012
III IV┘
I└
II2013
III IV┘
I└
II2014
III
Indices of All Industrial ActivitiesIndices of Construction Industry ActivityIndices of Industrial ProductionIndices of Tertiary Industry ActivityIndices of Government Services, etc.
Outline of industrial activities “Production trends” • The indices of industrial production decreased for the second consecutive quarter, down by 1.9% from
the previous quarter. • By type of goods, decreases were observed in all goods, such as durable consumer goods and capital
goods. • By type of business, production in 15 industries, including the transport equipment industry and the
information and communication electronics equipment industry, decreased.
Changes in the Indices of Industrial Production (by type of goods) (2010 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
Ratio to the Previous Quarter, Contribution Ratio to Growth Rate
-4
-2
0
2
4
IV2013
I└
II2014
III
(%) Producer goods
Non-durable consumergoodsDurable consumer goods
Construction goods
Capital goods
Industrial production
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
I└
II2009
III IV┘
I└
II2010
III IV┘
I└
II2011
III IV┘
I└
II2012
III IV┘
I└
II2013
III IV┘
I└
II2014
III
Industrial productionCapital goodsConstruction goodsDurable consumer goodsNon-durable consumer goodsProducer goods
Outline of industrial activities “Production trends by item”
<Major items that decreased> • Large passenger cars (for the second consecutive quarter)
• Small passenger cars (for the second consecutive quarter)
<Major items that increased> • Metal oxide semiconductor ICs (Memory) (for the first time in two quarters)
• Conveyors (for the first time in two quarters)
Changes from the Previous Quarter by Item and Contribution Ratio
Items that Contributed to DecreaseChangesfrom thePrevious
ContributionRatio
(% points)Items that Contributed to Increase
Changesfrom thePrevious
ContributionRatio
(% points)1) Large passenger cars -4.5 -0.25 1) Metal oxide semiconductor ICs (Memory) 25.7 0.292) Small passenger cars -16.6 -0.21 2) Conveyors 76.9 0.123) Desktop computers -37.5 -0.18 3) Metal oxide semiconductor ICs (CCD) 27.8 0.114) Engines for motor vehicles -5.5 -0.10 4) Fixed capacitors 8.5 0.055) Midget passenger cars -9.8 -0.09 5) Printing machinery 19.7 0.04
Outline of industrial activities “Shipment trends” • The indices of industrial shipments decreased for the second consecutive quarter, down by
0.8% from the previous quarter. • By demand, shipments for domestic demand decreased for the second consecutive quarter, and
shipments for exports increased for the first time in three quarters. • By type of goods, decreases were observed in durable consumer goods and construction goods.
Changes in Export Shipments and Domestic Shipments in relation to the Indices of Industrial Shipments
(2010 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
Ratio to the Previous Quarter, Contribution Ratio to Growth Rate
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
IV2013
I└
II2014
III
(%)Shipments fordomestic useShipments forexportsShipments
60
70
80
90
100
110
I└
II2009
III IV┘
I└
II2010
III IV┘
I└
II2011
III IV┘
I└
II2012
III IV┘
I└
II2013
III IV┘
I└
II2014
III
Shipments
Shipments for exports
Shipments for domestic use
Outline of industrial activities “Trends of Shipments from Domestic Corporations and Overseas Affiliates in Manufacturing Industries” • The indices of global shipments for the second quarter of 2014 increased for the fourth consecutive quarter, by
2.5% from same quarter of the previous year. • Looking at the breakdown, for domestic shipments increased for the fourth consecutive quarter, by 1.8% from the
previous year, for exports shipments decreased for the first time in four quarters, by 1.2% from the previous year, and overseas shipments increased for the tenth consecutive quarter, by 5.8% from the previous year.
• Looking at the indices of global shipments in terms of the changes in contribution ratio from the previous year, the rate for domestic shipments increased by 1.1% points, the rate for exports shipments decreased by 0.2% points, and the rate for overseas shipments increased by 1.7% points.
Changes in the Indices of Global Shipments The Indices of Global Shipments
(Manufacturing industries, 2010 = 100) The indices of Domestic Shipments and Overseas Shipments
(Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, Contribution ratio to Growth Rate)
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
I └
II20
III05
IV ┘
I └
II20
III06
IV ┘
I └
II20
III07
IV ┘
I └
II20
III08
IV ┘
I └
II20
III09
IV ┘
I └
II20
III10
IV ┘
I └
II20
III11
IV ┘
I └
II20
III12
IV ┘
I └
II20
III13
IV ┘
I └
II20
(%)
Overseas shipmentsFor exports shipments (Domestic shipments)For domestic shipments (Domestic shipments)Indices of global shipmentsIndices of domestic shipmentsIndices of overseas shipmentsRatio of overseas shipments in manufactuiring industries (item basis, right-hand scale)
14 (Year)
I └
II20
III05
IV ┘
I └
II20
III06
IV ┘
I └
II20
III07
IV ┘
I └
II20
III08
IV ┘
I └
II20
III09
IV ┘
I └
II20
III10
IV ┘
I └
II20
III11
IV ┘
I └
II20
III12
IV ┘
I └
II20
III13
IV ┘
I └
II20
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40(% , % points)
Overseas shipmentsFor exports shipments (Domestic shipments)For domestic shipments (Domestic shipments)
14 (Year)
Outline of industrial activities “Weakening relationship between sales of Japanese cars in the U.S. and exports of cars” • Due to overseas transfer of production bases of automobile manufacturers, etc., the sales of Japanese cars (passenger cars) in the U.S. has not linked to the export of cars from Japan.
• Statistical analysis results show the structural change has occurred in their relationship from July 2011. • From July 2011, the sales of Japanese cars (passenger cars) in the U.S. has been uncorrelated with the exports of
passenger cars from Japan, while the correlation coefficient between the sales of Japanese cars and local sales of the US affiliates (transport equipment) is 0.838.
The relationship of the sales of Japanese cars (passenger cars) in the U.S. and the shipment index of “passenger cars” for the U.S.
Shipments of passenger cars for the U.S. (2010 = 100)
The
sale
s of J
apan
ese
cars
(
10,0
00 ca
rs)
Jan. 2005 - Jun. 2011 Jul. 2011 - Jun. 2014
The
sale
s of J
apan
ese
cars
(
10,0
00 ca
rs)
Correlation coefficient = 0.736**
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 50 100 150 200
Correlation coefficient = 0.058
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 50 100 150 200
Becoming uncorrelated
Shipments of passenger cars for the U.S. (2010 = 100)
The relationship of the sales of Japanese cars (passenger cars) and the local sales of the U.S. affiliates (transport equipment)
The
sale
s of J
apan
ese
cars
(
10,0
00 ca
rs)
The
sale
s of J
apan
ese
cars
(
1000
00 ca
rs)
Correlation coefficient = 0.667**
15
20
25
30
35
40
100 200 300 400
Correlation coefficient = 0.838**
15
20
25
30
35
40
100 200 300 400
Correlation coefficient has become 0.838.
Jan. 2005 - Jun. 2011 Jul. 2011 - Jun. 2014
Local sales of the US affiliates (Transport equipment) (100 mil. USD)
Local sales of the US affiliates (Transport equipment) (100 mil. USD)
(Note) 1. ** indicates the correlation coefficient is significant at the significance
level of 1%. 2. All data is seasonally adjusted.
(Note) 1. ** indicates the correlation coefficient is significant at the significance
level of 1%. 2. All data is seasonally adjusted. 3. The local sales amount is adjusted based on the US CPI “New
vehicles”.
Outline of industrial activities “Inventory trends (1)” • The indices of industrial inventories increased for the third consecutive quarter, by 1.1% as compared to the end
of the previous quarter. • By type of goods, increases were observed mainly in durable consumer goods and producer goods. • By type of business, production in 11 industries, including the petroleum and coal products industry and iron and
steel industry, increased.
Changes in the Indices of Industrial Production Inventory (by type of goods)
(2010 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
Changes from the Previous Quarter, Contribution Ratio to Growth Rate
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
I└
II2009
III IV┘
I└
II2010
III IV┘
I└
II2011
III IV┘
I└
II2012
III IV┘
I└
II2013
III IV┘
I└
II2014
III
Industrial productionCapital goodsConstruction goodsDurable consumer goodsNon-durable consumer goodsProducer goods
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
IV2013
I└
II2014
III
(%)
Producer goodsNon-durable consumer goodsDurable consumer goodsConstruction goodsCapital goodsIndustrial production
Outline of industrial activities “Inventory trends (2)” • The inventory cycle of mining and manufacturing industry during the third quarter of 2014 continued “expanding
inventory stage”.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
(% )
Cha
nge
in in
vent
ory
from
the
end
of th
e sa
me
quar
ter o
f the
pr
evio
us y
ear
(%) Change in production from the same quarter of the previous year
2014 III 2012 I
Inve
ntor
y ad
just
ing
stag
e
Inve
ntor
y ac
cum
ulat
ion
stag
e
Unintended decreasing stage of inventory
Expanding inventory stage
Outline of tertiary industry activities • Tertiary industry activities increased for the first time in two quarters, by 0.3% from the previous quarter. • By type of business, Finance and Insurance increased for the first time in three quarters, and 6 out of 13 types of
business in broad category increased.
Changes in Indices of Tertiary Industry Activities of Major Industry Sectors (2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
I└
II2009
III IV┘
I└
II2010
III IV┘
I└
II2011
III IV┘
I└
II2012
III IV┘
I└
II2013
III IV┘
I└
II2014
III
Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply & WaterInformation & CommunicationsTransport & Postal ActivitiesWholesale Trade & Retail TradeFinance & InsuranceMedical, Health Care & WelfareTertiary Industry
• During the third quarter of 2014, broad-raging personal services increased by 0.6% from the previous quarter, and broad-ranging business services also increased by 0.1% from the previous quarter, both up for the first time in two quarters.
Outline of tertiary industry activities “Trends of broad-ranging personal services and broad-ranging business services”
Changes in the Indices of Broad-ranging Personal Services and Broad-ranging Business Services (2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
Changes from the Previous Quarter, Contribution Ratio to
Growth Rate
IV2013
I└
II2014
III-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Broad-ranging business servicesBroad-ranging personal servicesTertiary industry activity (Overall)
(%)
90
95
100
105
110
I└
II2009
III IV┘
I└
II2010
III IV┘
I└
II2011
III IV┘
I└
II2012
III IV┘
I└
II2013
III IV┘
I└
II2014
III
Tertiary industry activity (Overall) Broad-ranging personal servicesBroad-ranging business services
Outline of supply trends for final demand • Supply for final demand of domestic products remained flat, at 0.0% change from the previous quarter. • Overall industrial supply for consumption decreased by 0.5% from the previous quarter, down for the second
consecutive quarter. • Overall industrial supply for investment increased by 0.1% from the previous quarter, up for the first time in two
quarters. • Exports increased by 1.0% from the previous quarter, up for the first time in two quarters, and imports decreased by
0.4% from the previous quarter, down for the second consecutive quarter.
Changes in the Indices of All Industries (Final Demand Components)
(2005 = 100, ratio to the previous year (quarter)) 2012 2013
Ratio to theprevious year
Ratio to theprevious year III IV I II III IV I II III
Total of final demand sector 0.9 0.6 -1.2 -0.1 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.5 1.2 -2.8 0.0Mining and manufacturing (Goods) -1.3 -2.3 -7.9 -0.4 4.8 -1.7 0.0 1.3 5.6 -6.7 -1.2Tertiary industries (Services) 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 1.3 -2.2 -0.1
Consumption 1.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 1.5 -2.4 -0.5Investment 2.4 3.9 -1.2 0.1 0.4 1.9 2.7 2.7 1.4 -5.7 0.1Exports -1.5 2.6 -5.0 -1.6 6.8 0.9 -0.2 1.8 4.1 -2.5 1.0Imports 2.3 3.7 0.0 -0.8 1.6 1.1 1.8 3.1 5.7 -5.7 -0.4
2013 20142012
Outline of supply trends for final demand “Supply trends for consumption”
• Looking at the trends of consumption in terms of supply from mining and manufacturing, the overall supply of durable consumer goods decreased by 8.0% from the previous quarter, down for the second consecutive quarter. The overall supply of non-durable consumer goods increased by 0.1% from the previous quarter, up for the first time in two quarters.
Changes in Overall Supply of Durable Consumer Goods
(2010 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
Changes in Overall Supply of Non-durable Consumer Goods
(2010 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
80
90
100
110
120
I└
II2009
III IV┘
I└
II2010
III IV┘
I└
II2011
III IV┘
I└
II2012
III IV┘
I└
II2013
III IV┘
I└
II2014
III
Non-durable consumer goods For houseworkFor culture and amusement Food and beverageClothes and footwear
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
I└
II2009
III IV┘
I└
II2010
III IV┘
I└
II2011
III IV┘
I└
II2012
III IV┘
I└
II2013
III IV┘
I└
II2014
III
Durable consumer goods For houseworkFor heating and cooling For furniture and equipmentFor culture and amusement Cars and motorcycles
Outline of supply trends for final demand “Supply trends for investment”
• The trends of investments in terms of supply from mining and manufacturing (overall supply of capital goods) increased by 1.8% from the previous quarter, up for the first time in two quarters.
Changes in Supply from Mining and Manufacturing (Overall Supply of Capital Goods) (2010 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
405060708090
100110120130140150160170180190200
I└
II2009
III IV┘
I└
II2010
III IV┘
I└
II2011
III IV┘
I└
II2012
III IV┘
I└
II2013
III IV┘
I└
II2014
III
Capital goods For production equipmentFor electric power For communication and broadcastingFor agriculture For constructionFor transport For office workFor others
Outline of supply trends for final demand “Export trends” • Looking at the trends of export goods and services (on a quantity basis), in terms of the indices of all industries
(final demand components), exports of goods (mining and manufacturing industry) increased by 1.1% from the previous quarter, and exports of services (tertiary industry) also increased by 1.0% from the previous quarter, resulting in a 1.0% increase from the previous quarter for all exports.
• By region, exports of goods to East Asia, ASEAN, and the Middle East increased, while those to the United States and Europe decreased.
Changes in Exports by Region (Goods, 2010 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
60
80
100
120
140
I└
II2009
III IV┘
I└
II2010
III IV┘
I└
II2011
III IV┘
I└
II2012
III IV┘
I└
II2013
III IV┘
I└
II2014
III
Total U.S.Europe ASEANEast Asia ChinaMiddle East
Outline of supply trends for final demand “Trends of the export dependence” • The export dependence (the percentage of exports to the total mining and manufacturing shipments) increased to
19.9%, up for the second consecutive quarter. Changes in the Export Dependence
(Note) Export dependence = (Export indices of each goods and mining and manufacturing industry × Export weight) / (Shipment index of each goods and mining and manufacturing × Shipment weight) × 100
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
I└
II2009
III IV┘
I└
II2010
III IV┘
I└
II2011
III IV┘
I└
II2012
III IV┘
I└
II2013
III IV┘
I└
II2014
III
Mining and Manufacturing
(%)
Outline of supply trends for final demand “Import trends” • Looking at the trends of import goods and services (on a quantity basis), in terms of the indices of all industries
(final demand components), imports of goods (mining and manufacturing industry) increased by 0.9% from the previous quarter, while imports of services (tertiary industry) decreased by 2.5% from the previous quarter, resulting in a 0.4% decrease from the previous quarter for all imports.
• By region, imports of goods from the United States, the Middle East, and ASEAN increased, while those from Europe and East Asia decreased.
Changes in Imports by Region (Goods, 2010 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
60
80
100
120
140
160
I└
II2009
III IV┘
I└
II2010
III IV┘
I└
II2011
III IV┘
I└
II2012
III IV┘
I└
II2013
III IV┘
I└
II2014
III
Total U.S.Europe ASEANEast Asia ChinaMiddle East
20
21
22
23
24
25
I└
II2009
III IV┘
I└
II2010
III IV┘
I└
II2011
III IV┘
I└
II2012
III IV┘
I└
II2013
III IV┘
I└
II2014
III
Mining and Manufacturing
(%)
Outline of supply trends for final demand “Trends of import penetration rate” • The import penetration rate (the percentage of imports to the overall supply from mining and manufacturing)
increased to 24.0%, up for the second consecutive quarter.
Changes in the Import Penetration Rate
(Note) Import penetration rate = (Import indices of each goods and mining and manufacturing × Import weight) / (The indices of overall supply of each goods and mining and manufacturing industry × Overall supply weight) × 100