the top 1 percent

8/13/2019 The Top 1 Percent

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The Top 1 Percent in International and Historical PerspectiveFacundo Alvaredo, Anthony B. Atkinson, Thomas Piketty, and Emmanuel Saez

NBER Working Paper No. 19075May 2013, Revised June 2013JEL No. H2

ABSTRACT

The top 1 percent income share has more than doubled in the United States over the last thirty years,drawing much public attention in recent years. While other English speaking countries have also experiencedsharp increases in the top 1 percent income share, many high income countries such as Japan, France,or Germany have seen much less increase in top income shares. Hence, the explanation cannot relysolely on forces common to advanced countries, such as the impact of new technologies and globalizationon the supply and demand for skills. Moreover, the explanations have to accommodate the falls intop income shares earlier in the twentieth century experienced in virtually all high income countries.We highlight four main factors. The first is the impact of tax policy, which has varied over time anddiffers across countries. Top tax rates have moved in the opposite direction from top income shares.The effects of top rate cuts can operate in conjunction with other mechanisms. The second factor isindeed a richer view of the labor market, where we contrast the standard supply-side model with onewhere pay is determined by bargaining and the reactions to top rate cuts may lead simply to a redistributionof surplus. Indeed, top rate cuts may lead managerial energies to be diverted to increasing their remunerationat the expense of enterprise growth and employment. The third factor is capital income. Overall, privatewealth (relative to income) has followed a U-shaped path over time, particularly in Europe, whereinherited wealth is, in Europe if not in the United States, making a return. The fourth, little investigated,element is the correlation between earned income and capital income, which has substantially increasedin recent decades in the United States.

Facundo Alvaredo Nuffield College and EModUniversity of OxfordEagle HouseWalton Well RoadOX2 6ED OxfordUK [email protected]

Anthony B. AtkinsonDept. of EconomicsOxford UnviersityManor Road Building, Manor Rd.Oxford, OX1 3BJ, United [email protected]

Thomas PikettyParis School of Economics48 Boulevard Jourdan75014 Paris, France

[email protected]

Emmanuel SaezDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of California, Berkeley

530 Evans Hall #3880Berkeley, CA 94720and NBER [email protected]


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J6--+..7/ F4 *4 !TY!4 *' ;D>+)-$06)' 6' 01. 81.)-2 )I M>069&9 L'%)9. 8$D$06)'/ 0-+.-2 '5 9#'%'@.#E3$&.-// \_NPOU !Y]EP[_4

:16+6>>)'/ 81)9$7 $'( *-6.++ `.71.I/ P[!P4 mC$B.7 $'( H&9$' b$>60$+ 6' 01. @4.- c)4 !YZ!Z/ I)-01%)96'B )@-,.#"% 9#'%'@.#

Q'$,%"*X 9#'%'@.# D'*.#G 4

:65.002/ 81)9$7/ $'( G$?-6.+ d&%9$'/ P[!\$4 mb$>60$+ 67 3$%5U C.$+01EL'%)9. `$06)7 6' `6%1 b)&'0-6.7/!Y[[EP[![/n :


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2000 1980

A. Per cen t o f top 1% cap ital incom es in v arious top l abo r inc ome grou ps

Labor income groupsTop 1% 27% 17%Top 5% 45% 27%Top 10% 52% 32%Top 20% 61% 38%

B. Percent of top 1% labor in comes in various top capital income grou ps

Capital income gro upsTop 1% 27% 17%Top 5% 50% 36%Top 10% 63% 47%Top 20% 80% 68%

Year

Table 1. Relation between Top Labor Incomes and Top Capital Incomes in the United States

Note: Source is Aaberge et al. (2013). Panel A reports the percent of top 1% capitalincome earners in various top labor income groups in 2000 (column 1) and 1980 (column2). In 2000, 27% of top 1% capital income earners were also in the top 1% of labor incomes, 45% were in the top 5% of labor incomes, etc. Panel B reports the percent of top 1% labor income earners in various top capital income groups in 2000 (column 1) and1980 (column 2). The computations are based on the public use US tax return micro-datafiles (see Aaberge et al., 2013, for complete details).


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!"#$%& () *+, (- ./0+1& 234%& "/ 53& 6/"5&7 2545&8Notes: Source is Piketty and Saez (2003) and The World Top Incomes Database. The figure reports the share of total income earned by top 1% families in theUnited States from 1913 to 2010. Income is defined as pre-tax market income, it excludes government transfers and non-taxable fringe benefits. The figurereports series including realized capital gains (in full squares) and series excluding realized capital gains (in empty squares).

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1 9 1 3

1 9 2 0

1 9 2 7

1 9 3 4

1 9 4 1

1 9 4 8

1 9 5 5

1 9 6 2

1 9 6 9

1 9 7 6

1 9 8 3

1 9 9 0

1 9 9 7

2 0 0 4

2 0 1 1

Top 1% income share excluding capital gains

Top 1% income share including capital gains


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!"#$%& () *+, -. /01+2& 345%&6 "0 789: 9+$0;%"&6Notes: Source is The World Top Incomes Database. The figure reports the share of total income earned by the top 1% in four English speaking countries inPanel A, and in four other OECD countries (Japan and three continental European countries) in Panel B. Income is defined as pre-tax market income. Theestimates for Australia include realized capital gains partially and at varying degrees over time.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1 9 1 0

1 9 1 5

1 9 2 0

1 9 2 5

1 9 3 0

1 9 3 5

1 9 4 0

1 9 4 5

1 9 5 0

1 9 5 5

1 9 6 0

1 9 6 5

1 9 7 0

1 9 7 5

1 9 8 0

1 9 8 5

1 9 9 0

1 9 9 5

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 5

2 0 1 0

A. Top 1% income shares in Engl ish-speaking countri es (U-shape)

United States-including capital gains

AustraliaCanada-including capital gains from 1972

United Kingdom-families

United Kingdom-adults

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1 9 1 0

1 9 1 5

1 9 2 0

1 9 2 5

1 9 3 0

1 9 3 5

1 9 4 0

1 9 4 5

1 9 5 0

1 9 5 5

1 9 6 0

1 9 6 5

1 9 7 0

1 9 7 5

1 9 8 0

1 9 8 5

1 9 9 0

1 9 9 5

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 5

2 0 1 0

B. Top 1% income shares in continental Europe and J apan (L-shape)

France

Germany-including capital gains from 1950

Japan-including capital gains from 1947

Sweden-including capital gains


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!"#$%& () *+, -.%#"/.0 1/2+3& *.4 5.6&78 9:;;


20/22


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Figure 5. Annual Inheritance Flow as a Fraction of Disposable Income, France 1820-2008Notes: Source is Piketty (2011). The annual inheritance flow is defined as the total market value of all assets (tangible and financial assets, net of financial liabilities) transmitted at death or through inter vivos gifts. Disposable income was as high as 90%-95% of national income during the19th century and early 20th century (when taxes and transfers were almost non existent), while it is now about 70% of national income.

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

28%

32%

36%

40%

1 8 2 0

1 8 4 0

1 8 6 0

1 8 8 0

1 9 0 0

1 9 2 0

1 9 4 0

1 9 6 0

1 9 8 0

2 0 0 0

Economic flow (computed from national wealth estimates, mortalitytables and observed age-wealth profiles)

Fiscal flow (computed from observed bequest and gift tax data,

including tax exempt assets)


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Figure 6. Private wealth / national income ratios, 1870-2010Notes: Source is Piketty and Zucman (2013a). Europe is the (unweighted) average of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom.Private wealth is defined as the sum of non-financial assets, financial assets, minus financial liabilities in the household and non-profitsectors.

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

800%

1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

United States

Europe

the top 1 percent

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