the true costs of solar pv: irena's cost analysis
DESCRIPTION
Solar PV costs have fallen dramatically since 2009 as solar PV module prices fell. However, wide variations in installed costs exist not only within a country, but between countries. How large are these differences? What is driving the difference in costs between systems? How can we accelerate solar PV costs to "competitive" levels? IRENA has started to collect the data to analyse these questions and others. Can you help us with data? What are the questions you need answering? Our work is ongoing and we welcome engagement by stakeholders.TRANSCRIPT
The True Costs of Solar PV:
IRENA’s Cost Analysis
EU PVSEC Amsterdam, 25 September 2014
Michael [email protected]
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A dynamic market
The energy sector is being
Transformed….
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A virtuous cycle is unlocking the economic, social and environmental
benefits of renewables
4
Recent cost trends
Rapidly declining solar PV module prices…..
…..and installed costs
Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database, BNEF and Global Data
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Solar resources, deployment
and IRENA membership
Moving beyond narrow markets
Accelerating PV deployment
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THE ABSENCE OF UP-TO-DATE
COST DATA IS A BARRIERIRENA IS RAMPING UP ITS WORK
Renewables are
increasingly competitive!
IRENA’s analysis of 9000
utility-scale projects and
200k small-scale solar PV
Solar PV costs: Current work
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• IRENA Renewable Costing Alliance
• Accelerating cost reductions in new markets in Africa
• IRENA’s Solar PV Parity Indicators
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Works at technical level
Pool, confidentially, data
Entirely voluntary, no fees
Low overheads
IRENA Renewable Costing Alliance
Accelerating PV
cost reductions in Africa
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• Joint project with GIZ/BMZ
• Focus on collecting up-to-date data on current costs for utility-scale, mini-grids and SHS
• What do “competitive” costs look like in Africa?
• What are the barriers to achieving these levels in new markets in Africa?
• How do we get there? What facilitating policies are needed?
Why Africa?
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Utility-scale
solar PV costs in Africa
12Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database and Global Data, 2014
Operating or under construction in 8 African countries
With a further 6.5 GW either permitting or financed
Off-grid PV costs in Africa
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Off-grid solar home systems
example Uganda
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Size (kW) Battery Cost
(USD/kW)
0.3 2 x 12V/ 100 Ah 1731
1 2 x 12 V / 150 Ah 2692
1.5 2 x 12 V / 230 Ah 3269
3 8 x 6 V / 220 Ah 6154
Timeline
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• Data collection till December 2014
• Analysis and cost reduction identification till Jan 2015
• Drafting of results and handbook Feb-Apr 2015
• Publication June 2015
• Can you help us make the analysis better?
IRENA’S
PV PARITY INDICATORS
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PV Parity Indicators
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• Tracks quarterly competiveness
• Indicators, not actual costs
• Target audience are policy makers and thought leaders
• Start with North America
• Can lead to more detailed analysis
• Supports other IRENA activities
Methodology
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• Simple metrics
• LCOE vs Effective Electricity Rate/Value• Require detailed assumptions & analysis
19Recent module price reductions make solar PV competitive
Residential PV Parity: A nuanced story
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Residential PV Parity: San Francisco
Minimum effective electricity rate
Maximum effective electricity rate
Average California electricity rate (EIA)
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Installed cost variation by city
Consistently wide variation in installed costs, why?
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Transparent data
Simple methodology
Timely and policy relevant information
IRENA’s PV cost analysis
IRENA’s PV Cost Analysis
23Bringing Our Future Forward