the year of the pie...history on all products bought upc plu system 2 ... of households bought a...

The Year of the Pie

www.perishablesgroup.com

The Year of the PieSuccesses, Opportunities and 2012 Outlook

Jonna Parker

Director, Account Services

Nielsen Perishables Group

Perishables Group Introduction

Fresh Industry Experts� 12 years of fresh food

consulting and category insights;

� Acquired by Nielsen in

2012

Consumer

www.perishablesgroup.com 2

2012

Multi-Dimensional

Approach� Consumer and

trade research

� Analytics

� Marketing communications

� Data services

ApplicationPerformance

Category Strategy

Inputs Utilized in this AnalysisS

ale

s D

ata • Supermarkets

• Store, item, week detail

• Approximately 13,000 stores nationwide

• Supermarkets

• Store, item, week detail

• Approximately 13,000 stores nationwide

Pu

rch

ase

Pa

tte

rns • Spans more

than 5 million regular shopping households across 24

• Spans more than 5 million regular shopping households across 24

Ind

ustr

y T

ren

ds • Media

monitoring

• Supplier and retailer dialogue

• Secondary research

• Media monitoring

• Supplier and retailer dialogue

• Secondary research


Sa

les D

ata

nationwide

• Fresh bakery/In-store bakery

• No commercial aisle or center-store

nationwide

• Fresh bakery/In-store bakery

• No commercial aisle or center-store

Pu

rch

ase

Pa

tte

rns

across 24 states

• Purchase history on all products bought

across 24 states

• Purchase history on all products bought In

du

str

y T

ren

ds

research research

PLUUPC System 2

FreshFacts® spans all items sold in the fresh departments at supermarkets

TRENDS ACROSS

Pie Successes, Opportunities and 2012 Outlook


4

TRENDS ACROSS

FRESH FOODS

9%

7%

5% 5%

4%

8%

4%

1%

4%

Across Fresh, Staples Down but Products Meeting

Consumer Needs Grew


-2%

Global Healthy Premium/

Indulgence

Convenience Staple

Dollar Change vs. 2010 Volume Change vs. 2010

Contribution to Fresh Dollar Sales

4% 9% 10% 18% 62%

Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® Total US 52 weeks ending 12/31/2011

Bakery Consumers Care About More Than Price

NICHE INDULGENCE

Where Innovation Matters

GOURMET


Bakery success is about understanding your consumer and innovating to create value beyond price

BREAKFASTTRADING WITHINSUBSTITUTES

Where Price Matters

Source: Nielsen Perishables Group “The Role of Price in Consumer Bakery Choices” study

Trend-Spotting in the In-Store Bakery

Portion Control Through Smaller Product Sizes

Serving Sizes That

Red Velvet Everything

Nostalgia and


Serving Sizes That Meet Household Needs

Cupcakes - No Signs of Slowing Down

Nostalgia andComfort Flavors in New Ways

Gourmet andIndulgent products

PIE TRENDS



8

PIE TRENDS

How Do Pies Stack Up Against Other Categories?

Total Bakery

Cakes

Breads

Rolls

Cookies3.7%

3.3%

3.2%

4.2%

4.4%

Dollar % Change vs YAGO

0.8%

-0.8%

-2.1%

1.9%

1.2%

Volume % Change vs YAGO

www.perishablesgroup.com 9Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® Total US 52 weeks ending 12/31/2011

Donuts

Sweet Goods

Pies

Muffins

Bagels

Brownies

Specialty Desserts7.1%

-0.8%

3.8%

4.7%

2.5%

9.5%

6.9%

3.4%

-6.5%

2.8%

-1.3%

1.7%

6.8%

5.6%

Pies By The Numbers

A Pie Chart for Pies

Pies Volume Share

Total U.S., 2011

Specialty/

Gourmet

Cream/

Custard

Pies

6%All Other

11%

In 2011…

of bakery sales came from pies

million pie sales at supermarkets


Gourmet

Pies

20%

Fruit Pies

24%

Open

Face Pies

15%

Mini/

Sliced/

Half Pies

24%

6% 11%

of households bought a fresh pie

at a grocery store1

average pie purchases per year1

of bakery sales came from pies

fresh pie items carried, up

slightly Mini/Sliced +2 points

Source: 1. FreshFacts® Shopper Insights Powered by Spire, 52 Weeks Ending 12/31/11; 2. Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® Total US 52 weeks ending 12/31/2011

Mini/Sliced/Half Pies Drove Category Growth

Pies

Mini/Sliced

Fruit

Specialty/ Gourmet -1.4%

-3.0%

14.0%

1.7%

Volume % Change vs YAGO

0.9%

1.1%

11.2%

2.5%

Dollar % Change vs YAGO


Open Face

Cream/ Custard

Meringue

Tarts

Lattice

Other 11.1%

-2.5%

-0.5%

-4.5%

-2.0%

0.0%

8.6%

9.8%

2.1%

-1.1%

0.2%

4.4%


Staple Flavors Held Their Ground

Top 10 Flavors

2011 Unit Volume

Change vs. 2010

Percentage of Category

Sales

Apple 22.1 million 2.2% 23%

Pumpkin 14.9 million -1.6% 15%

Staple


Pumpkin 14.9 million -1.6% 15%

Cherry 9.4 million 7.8% 10%

Blueberry 4.5 million 6.2% 5%

Dutch Apple 3.8 million 7.7% 4%

Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® Total US 52 weeks ending 12/31/2011; representing 63% ACV not projected to total

$25,000,000

$30,000,000

$35,000,000

$40,000,000

$45,000,000

$50,000,000

Helping Extend Pie “Season”

Staple

Could mini pies help transition the category from seasonal celebration to

everyday dessert?


$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

01

/08

/20

11

01

/22

/20

11

02

/05

/20

11

02

/19

/20

11

03

/05

/20

11

03

/19

/20

11

04

/02

/20

11

04

/16

/20

11

04

/30

/20

11

05

/14

/20

11

05

/28

/20

11

06

/11

/20

11

06

/25

/20

11

07

/09

/20

11

07

/23

/20

11

08

/06

/20

11

08

/20

/20

11

09

/03

/20

11

09

/17

/20

11

10

/01

/20

11

10

/15

/20

11

10

/29

/20

11

11

/12

/20

11

11

/26

/20

11

12

/10

/20

11

12

/24

/20

11

Pies Category Sales


The Year of the Portable, Portioned Pie

Convenience

Independent Bakery

Coffee Shops


“Sweet or savory, hand pies appeal to anyone with a

practical nature” –


In-Store Bakery

Alternative Grocery

Size Matters, But So Does Presentation

Mini Pies

22.0%

Convenience

www.perishablesgroup.com 15Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® Total US 52 weeks ending 12/31/2011

Pie Slices

0.6%

Half Pies

9.2%

Opportunities for Expansion into Global Flavor Profiles

Multicultural/

Global

Tres LechesCakes

8.8%

Expanding Taste Palate Rethinking Comfort Foods

Tropical Pies

www.perishablesgroup.com 16Sources: 1. Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® Total U.S. Hispanic data ending 12/31/11; 2. Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® Total US 52 weeks ending 12/31/2011

Red Velvet Cupcakes

105%

Tiramisu Cakes

24.6%

Regional Pies

Elegant Pies

Emerging as global recipe network

Chocolate pie unit sales2

+165.7%

Pop Culture Influence

Innovation (Done Right) Will Attract Consumers

Premium/

Indulgence


6-Count Cupcakes

6.8%

8” Pies

4.4%

5” Dessert Cakes

39.2%

Source: 1. Nielsen, Understanding and Reaching the New American Family; 2.. Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® Total US 52 weeks ending 12/31/2011

67% of American households comprised of 1-2 people1

Sugar Free, Super Fruits

Health

“After years in the shadow of other fruits, tart cherries are emerging as a

major super fruit”

Cherry pies +7.8%

www.perishablesgroup.com 18Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® Total US 52 weeks ending 12/31/2011; Quote: choosecherries.com

Cherry pies +7.8%

No Transfat, Sugar Free and No Sugar Added:

+294,000 unit sales in 2011

“Natural” tart sales increased tenfold

2012 Opportunities: Pies for Every Palette

Convenience Indulgence

Meeting Consumer Needs


Staple

Health Global


QUESTIONS


20

QUESTIONS

Jonna Parker, Director of Account ServicesPhone: 773-929-7013

Email: [email protected]

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