From The Cold War to The From The Cold War to The War on TerrorWar on Terror

Problems for Peace markers after a WarProblems for Peace markers after a War Vienna Congress & New European Vienna Congress & New European

OrderOrder Sequence of events after WW-I & WW-II Sequence of events after WW-I & WW-II Sufferings & expectations from Major Sufferings & expectations from Major

Wars Wars Less Lofty ambitions of Peace markers Less Lofty ambitions of Peace markers

of; 1815, 1919 & 1945 of; 1815, 1919 & 1945 Protections of states interests & Protections of states interests &

securing of International System from securing of International System from further disturbances & destructionfurther disturbances & destruction

End of cold War – last War of 20th End of cold War – last War of 20th Century; left the World with; Century; left the World with; promisespromises & & Potential of risk Potential of risk

Period between end of Cold War & 9/11 Period between end of Cold War & 9/11 – more interregnum with two thoughts– more interregnum with two thoughts:-:- An ongoing struggle between two An ongoing struggle between two

competing secular ideologies competing secular ideologies Shaped by an emerging clash between Shaped by an emerging clash between

two conceptions of civilization: two conceptions of civilization: The modern WestThe modern West The The Radical Islam Radical Islam

The End of Cold WarThe End of Cold War

Effects of Cold WarEffects of Cold War: : divisions of world, divisions of world, threats & destructions of Human being; threats & destructions of Human being; death of 25 million people in 3death of 25 million people in 3rdrd World World through proxy wars through proxy wars

Desire Desire Degree of Stability Degree of Stability due to bipolar due to bipolar order of 1947; appreciations by Realists order of 1947; appreciations by Realists like; Kenneth waltz for two balancing like; Kenneth waltz for two balancing Powers Powers

Two features of Cold War;Two features of Cold War; bipolar bipolar structure structure & highly divided character& highly divided character

Cold war as a Cold war as a managed Conflict managed Conflict with with Specified limits of each block – a set of Specified limits of each block – a set of informal rules – accepted by both informal rules – accepted by both powers powers

Philosophy of cold War remaining Philosophy of cold War remaining ColdCold; agreement on prevention of ; agreement on prevention of nuclear war & deterrence nuclear war & deterrence

Caution of Super Powers not to Caution of Super Powers not to destroy each other except 1962 – destroy each other except 1962 – Cuban Missile CrisisCuban Missile Crisis

Shock Waves of 1989 – dramatic Shock Waves of 1989 – dramatic changes in the World & Character of changes in the World & Character of Mikhail Gorbachev–Mikhail Gorbachev–Farsighted leader Farsighted leader or a traitoror a traitor

Collapse of Communism & fall of Collapse of Communism & fall of Berlin Wall Berlin Wall

Reagan's tough Policies towards Reagan's tough Policies towards Russia – “an Evil Empire” Russia – “an Evil Empire”

Soviet Economic deterioration or Soviet Economic deterioration or East European debt to West East European debt to West Europe Europe

End of Cold War divided IR End of Cold War divided IR scholars in to Realists & scholars in to Realists & Constructivists Constructivists

Mapping the Post – Cold War Mapping the Post – Cold War EraEra

Change in the structure of Change in the structure of international system & divisions international system & divisions within the wider academic community within the wider academic community

Western scholars like Francis Western scholars like Francis Fukuyama viewed Collapse of Fukuyama viewed Collapse of Communism as final end of one Communism as final end of one particular Phaseparticular Phase

Defining new tasks far; UNO, NATO & Defining new tasks far; UNO, NATO & EU EU

Survival of West without a Threat ? Survival of West without a Threat ? Logic for High Military spending Logic for High Military spending

once World is more safer once World is more safer

Globalization : A New Globalization : A New International OrderInternational Order

Sharp divisions between opposing Sharp divisions between opposing Socio- economics system during Socio- economics system during Cold WarCold War

Post Cold War: states were Post Cold War: states were compelled to play by a single set of compelled to play by a single set of rules within an increasing rules within an increasing competitive world economy – the competitive world economy – the GlobalizationGlobalization

Different Perceptions of Different Perceptions of globalizations by Theorist globalizations by Theorist

Globalization as a system; quite Globalization as a system; quite frequently undermining borders & frequently undermining borders & states – against Westphalia Treaty states – against Westphalia Treaty (Concept of Nations states) (Concept of Nations states)

Other Schools of thought questioned Other Schools of thought questioned Globalizations – Globalizations – CapitalismCapitalism after all after all have been a global system having have been a global system having features of interdependencefeatures of interdependence

Debate about;Debate about; impact of impact of Globalization on global inequality, Globalization on global inequality, climate Change & more general climate Change & more general distribution of power in IR distribution of power in IR

Globalization with increasing Globalization with increasing regularity was a simple fact of regularity was a simple fact of Economic life – (Scholars: David Economic life – (Scholars: David Held & Martin Wolf)Held & Martin Wolf)

No escaping of globalization – No escaping of globalization – except using soft words; to except using soft words; to ““Compete not RetreatCompete not Retreat” (Clinton) ” (Clinton)

Very little choice in the world of Very little choice in the world of global competition: Europe either global competition: Europe either had to reform or decline had to reform or decline

Globalization could not change the Globalization could not change the essence of how Politics was essence of how Politics was conducted between States Hans – J. conducted between States Hans – J. MorgenthauMorgenthau

Markets are fast becoming more Markets are fast becoming more important than States – a new trend important than States – a new trend emerged because of globalization-emerged because of globalization-StrangeStrange

Effect of Globalization onEffect of Globalization on: North : North America, Europe & East Asia – America, Europe & East Asia – increased Economic increased Economic interdependence & Wealth creation interdependence & Wealth creation

US Primacy: From Super US Primacy: From Super Power to Hyper Power Power to Hyper Power

Sequel to the end of Cold War:Sequel to the end of Cold War: World World economy came under same set of economy came under same set of highly competitive rule & resurgence highly competitive rule & resurgence of USA without a rivalof USA without a rival

Concept of multiple Polarity – faded Concept of multiple Polarity – faded A short recession in the economies of A short recession in the economies of

Japan, Europe & YugoslaviaJapan, Europe & Yugoslavia US transformation from mere super US transformation from mere super

power to hyper power : French FM, power to hyper power : French FM, Hubert Vedrine -1998 Hubert Vedrine -1998

Questions on the conjuncture (US Questions on the conjuncture (US status); how long US would stay as a status); how long US would stay as a hyper or super power ?hyper or super power ?

Varying thoughts: Emergence of Varying thoughts: Emergence of other Powers to balance US; other Powers to balance US;

US hegemony would stay in 21US hegemony would stay in 21stst Century Century

Spread of democracy would ensure Spread of democracy would ensure safety in international system safety in international system Specially economy -Liberal’s view Specially economy -Liberal’s view

Use of Power by US in wise way – Use of Power by US in wise way – USA is not threat to world, but if USA is not threat to world, but if it would not lead – world would it would not lead – world would be threatenedbe threatened

American victory after Cold War American victory after Cold War & dangers to world like: & dangers to world like: Rogue states Rogue states (Iran, Iraq, NK (Iran, Iraq, NK Libya & Cuba)Libya & Cuba)

Threat of Nuclear Proliferation Threat of Nuclear Proliferation Threat of Threat of Islamic TerrorismIslamic Terrorism

Incidents like: 9/11, WTC 1993, US Incidents like: 9/11, WTC 1993, US embassies bombing in Kenya & embassies bombing in Kenya & TanzaniaTanzania

1990s – No US Intention to involve in 1990s – No US Intention to involve in world into affairs specially after world into affairs specially after Somalian Debacle - 1993Somalian Debacle - 1993

US has been the only Hegemon US has been the only Hegemon power after 1990 but do not Know, power after 1990 but do not Know, how to use its Powerhow to use its Power

US after Cold War: “A Super power US after Cold War: “A Super power without Mission” without Mission”

Europe in World SystemEurope in World System

For USFor US; How to develop a ; How to develop a Coherent global policy in a world Coherent global policy in a world with no threat to its interests with no threat to its interests

For EuropeFor Europe; How to manage the ; How to manage the enlarged space created as a enlarged space created as a result of 1989 events result of 1989 events

US brought end to Cold war but US brought end to Cold war but European remained the actual / European remained the actual / true beneficiary true beneficiary

Europe: a divided continent - Europe: a divided continent - united again & its people & united again & its people & states got states got Right of Self Right of Self Determination Determination

Challenges for EuropeanChallenges for European; ; Collapse of Communism, Collapse of Communism, bloodshed in former Yugoslavia, bloodshed in former Yugoslavia, life under Competitive life under Competitive Capitalism & Capitalism & Transition from Transition from one order to anotherone order to another

Perception of European about future Perception of European about future of Europeof Europe

Own specific security arrangements – Own specific security arrangements – French; remained tied to US for its French; remained tied to US for its security – others specially Central security – others specially Central EuropeEurope

No agreements/ consensus by No agreements/ consensus by European European

Federalists for deeper union to Federalists for deeper union to balance the Power houses of US & balance the Power houses of US & JapanJapan

Others; Fears this as Eurosceptic Others; Fears this as Eurosceptic card card

European Divisions over Economics:European Divisions over Economics: DeregistersDeregisters;; favored greater state favored greater state

involvement in management of a involvement in management of a specially European Social modelspecially European Social model

Free MarketersFree Marketers: led by UK –oppose the : led by UK –oppose the Protected systemProtected system

Challenge for European Policy Challenge for European Policy markers; markers; how bring East back into how bring East back into WestWest

Enlargement of European Union to Enlargement of European Union to 27 members & NATO 26 by 200727 members & NATO 26 by 2007

Rapid enlargement of Europe & Rapid enlargement of Europe & reluctance of EU interaction reluctance of EU interaction

NATO – not a serious military NATO – not a serious military organization with integrated organization with integrated Command structureCommand structure

Realist believers in the Realist believers in the institutional role of NATO & EU institutional role of NATO & EU as essentialas essential

Various views of European Various views of European future:future: As a As a civilian powercivilian power A hard mil powerA hard mil power An economic power An economic power

Birth of European Security & Defence Birth of European Security & Defence Policy – 1998 & European Security Strategy Policy – 1998 & European Security Strategy (ESS) – 2003(ESS) – 2003

Global reach of European security with open Global reach of European security with open bordersborders

The Concept : A well The Concept : A well functioning international functioning international instituteinstitute & a system of rules & a system of rules

Insistence on a strong Insistence on a strong Trans-Atlantic Trans-Atlantic Relationship Relationship remained essential to order remained essential to order the world the world

ESS failed to address future of Europe & ESS failed to address future of Europe & Europe remained as such after WW-IIEurope remained as such after WW-II

Assurance for future of Europe: EU Assurance for future of Europe: EU capacity in dealing with Post Cold war capacity in dealing with Post Cold war events; single currency & new membership events; single currency & new membership

New PerceptionNew Perception: : 2121stst Century is of Century is of Europe Europe or Europe as more divided on or Europe as more divided on basic issues, culture & economy/ politicsbasic issues, culture & economy/ politics

Order issues/ ConfrontingOrder issues/ Confronting: Turkish : Turkish memberships; integration of 13 million memberships; integration of 13 million Muslim citizens; Rising economic Muslim citizens; Rising economic competitions with Chinacompetitions with China

Question; by end of 21Question; by end of 21stst Century; Century; From where it is coming from ?From where it is coming from ? No blue Print – where it is No blue Print – where it is going ? going ?

Russia from Yeltsin to Russia from Yeltsin to PutinPutin

Defining nature of relationship of Defining nature of relationship of Europe with Post Communist Russia : Europe with Post Communist Russia : facing transition from super power facing transition from super power status – Marxism to become status – Marxism to become democratic, liberal & market democratic, liberal & market orientedoriented

Difficulty for Russia – from a super Difficulty for Russia – from a super power to a declining power power to a declining power economically & ideologically in economically & ideologically in 1990s 1990s

Adopting of Western style Adopting of Western style Privatization & experiencing of Privatization & experiencing of 1930s like depression; 1930s like depression; Plummeting industrial Plummeting industrial production; falling living production; falling living standards etcstandards etc

Contradictory Policies of Contradictory Policies of President YeltsinPresident Yeltsin; Russians ; Russians perceived his Policies to be perceived his Policies to be selling of Russia to West against selling of Russia to West against its national interest its national interest

Vladimir Putin vision of RussiaVladimir Putin vision of Russia: : Promotion of nationalism & Promotion of nationalism & authoritarianism; clarity in Russian & authoritarianism; clarity in Russian & Western interests; improving Russian Western interests; improving Russian economy & exploiting Russian natural economy & exploiting Russian natural resources resources

Strategic partnership between Russia & Strategic partnership between Russia & WestWest

Russia should not look like Russia should not look like sick man of sick man of EuropeEurope, yet its economy mainly , yet its economy mainly remained depended on West remained depended on West

No ideological difference No ideological difference b/w b/w Western & Eastern Europe – Western & Eastern Europe – former Soviet States joined NATO former Soviet States joined NATO & EU& EU

Russia Russia surrounded by Pro-western surrounded by Pro-western Ukraine, three Baltic states & Ukraine, three Baltic states & Georgia in Caucasus & faced Georgia in Caucasus & faced separation in Chechnya & others separation in Chechnya & others

US & Western vision of RussiaUS & Western vision of Russia; ; Heading for an empire, human Heading for an empire, human rights violator & an authoritarian rights violator & an authoritarian power power

East Asia Primed for East Asia Primed for RivalryRivalry

Past history of East AsiaPast history of East Asia;; Devastative wars like, China, Devastative wars like, China,

Korea & VietnamKorea & Vietnam Revolutionary insurgencies in; Revolutionary insurgencies in;

Philippine, Malaysia & Indonesia Philippine, Malaysia & Indonesia Revolutionary extremism Revolutionary extremism

specially in Cambodia specially in Cambodia No Parallels between European new No Parallels between European new

liberal security communities & liberal security communities & East Asian / Asian Environment East Asian / Asian Environment mainly because of NATO & EU mainly because of NATO & EU formation formation

Germany reconciled with rest of Germany reconciled with rest of Europe, Japan did not for AsiaEurope, Japan did not for Asia

Post Cold War environment:Post Cold War environment: European continent transformed European continent transformed

dramaticallydramatically East Asia did not mainly because East Asia did not mainly because

of; Communists in China, NK & of; Communists in China, NK & Vietnam; territorial disputes b/w Vietnam; territorial disputes b/w Japan – China –Russia – TaiwanJapan – China –Russia – Taiwan

East Asia still ripe for rivalriesEast Asia still ripe for rivalries (Aaron Friedberg) – “(Aaron Friedberg) – “Europe’s Past Europe’s Past – East Asia’s Future– East Asia’s Future” ”

Contributory Factors in the Contributory Factors in the Development of East AsiaDevelopment of East Asia

11stst : Great Economic success of East : Great Economic success of East Asia because ofAsia because of; cheap labour; ; cheap labour; plentiful capitalplentiful capital; culture values; ; culture values; opening of US markets for East opening of US markets for East AsiansAsians; sense of security ; sense of security

East Asia as 3East Asia as 3rdrd powerhouse of global powerhouse of global economy with 25% of World GDP economy with 25% of World GDP

22ndnd : Promotion of regionalism : Promotion of regionalism like ASEAN and mutual trade like ASEAN and mutual trade within the East Asia within the East Asia

33rd:rd: Economic Development by Japan; Economic Development by Japan; meeting new challenges at global meeting new challenges at global level through economic progresslevel through economic progress

Nuclear Non-proliferation and non Nuclear Non-proliferation and non militarizationmilitarization

Leaving beyond historical Leaving beyond historical baggage, East Asians baggage, East Asians development regional trade & development regional trade & investment mainly because of investment mainly because of economic pressure & material economic pressure & material self interestself interest

Development of regionalism after Development of regionalism after 1990s 1990s

Japan's peaceful development Japan's peaceful development without any aggressive designs without any aggressive designs for the regional / external players for the regional / external players

China – Japan tradeChina – Japan trade:: 5000 Japanese 5000 Japanese companies & 55% investment by companies & 55% investment by Taiwan's investors Taiwan's investors

Rising China – a fear for West & US – Rising China – a fear for West & US – Realists view Realists view

Chinese assurance to its neighbors; a Chinese assurance to its neighbors; a peaceful rise – economic peaceful rise – economic interdependence –Japan – China interdependence –Japan – China understanding on economic groundsunderstanding on economic grounds

US presence in East Asia & Chinese US presence in East Asia & Chinese Perception- an ideological difference Perception- an ideological difference

Western PerceptionWestern Perception; China as a ; China as a economic Power (Capitalist) may economic Power (Capitalist) may prove more dangerous for world & prove more dangerous for world & West rather as a Communist PowerWest rather as a Communist Power

Haves & Have-notsHaves & Have-nots

Haves & Have-not; Haves & Have-not; A less debated A less debated conceptconcept

Post WW-II super Powers & Status of 3Post WW-II super Powers & Status of 3rdrd world countriesworld countries

Keeping 3Keeping 3rdrd World countries at distance World countries at distance but as ally to fight proxy wars & piling but as ally to fight proxy wars & piling up of weapons against opposing camps; up of weapons against opposing camps; Afghanistan, Cuba, Anglo, Vietnam etc Afghanistan, Cuba, Anglo, Vietnam etc

End of the Cold war brought settlement End of the Cold war brought settlement & abandoning of front line status of 3& abandoning of front line status of 3rdrd world countries by super power backersworld countries by super power backers

Intellectual crises for the utility of 3Intellectual crises for the utility of 3rd rd world without formal rivals like US & world without formal rivals like US & USSR USSR

Globalization further faded the idea of Globalization further faded the idea of 33rdrd world as many poor countries world as many poor countries developed after end of the Cold War developed after end of the Cold War

Concept of 3Concept of 3rdrd world to some analysts; world to some analysts; not to be abandoned; as there exists not to be abandoned; as there exists massive poverty in the world massive poverty in the world

Debate on concept of 3Debate on concept of 3rdrd world, world, Globalization & Poverty Globalization & Poverty No Consensus on eradication of 3No Consensus on eradication of 3rdrd World World

ConceptConcept Opponents of Globalization demanded either Opponents of Globalization demanded either

reduction of Globalization or to regulate itreduction of Globalization or to regulate it Apprehension of less developed countries – Apprehension of less developed countries –

Not getting drawn into the process but Not getting drawn into the process but remaining outside the process remaining outside the process

Economic growth in China & India; a Economic growth in China & India; a case for globalization case for globalization

30 million Chinese taken out of 30 million Chinese taken out of poverty trap – Indian case is differentpoverty trap – Indian case is different

A concept of competing economy A concept of competing economy developed by India & China developed by India & China

In Africa - Sub-Sahara; globalization In Africa - Sub-Sahara; globalization has not produced results has not produced results

3 billion people of the world (half of 3 billion people of the world (half of world population) still live on less world population) still live on less than 2 US dollars a day in the than 2 US dollars a day in the globalized World globalized World

GDP of 48 Poorest Countries GDP of 48 Poorest Countries of of World is less than wealth of World is less than wealth of World's World's three richest people three richest people

Out of 10.5 m children died in 2006, Out of 10.5 m children died in 2006, 98% were from less developed 98% were from less developed countriescountries

Growing gap between less developed Growing gap between less developed & developed world & shifting/ & developed world & shifting/ migration of poor to earn their bredmigration of poor to earn their bred

Poverty & inequality Poverty & inequality together bred together bred insecurity- insecurity foster insecurity- insecurity foster instabilities which leads to:instabilities which leads to: Any action by powerful countriesAny action by powerful countries Displacement- 25 m people displaced by Displacement- 25 m people displaced by

2006 2006 Effects of closure of borders – causing Effects of closure of borders – causing

extreme difficulties for poorextreme difficulties for poor Injustice would bread discontent & Injustice would bread discontent &

Political violence Political violence ““HavesHaves”- appear to have too much ”- appear to have too much

& “ & “ Have-nots”Have-nots”- so little - so little – would – would create ready markets for create ready markets for violence violence world over world over

The War on Terror: From The War on Terror: From 9/11 to Iraq9/11 to Iraq

End of Cold War as a turning Point of End of Cold War as a turning Point of 2020thth century history & 9/11 was a century history & 9/11 was a realization that international order realization that international order emerged as result was not acceptable to emerged as result was not acceptable to most of the worldmost of the world

Bin Laden’s motivation for 9/11 to Bin Laden’s motivation for 9/11 to destroy globalization & US supremacydestroy globalization & US supremacy

Bin Laden’s ideology to pull back the Bin Laden’s ideology to pull back the world in the past –his threat to use WMD world in the past –his threat to use WMD – a modern threat – a modern threat

Western Concept / PerceptionWestern Concept / Perception; A new ; A new non state threat & character of Islamic non state threat & character of Islamic TerrorismTerrorism

In reality for the US theIn reality for the US the Threat Was; Threat Was; More existential than serious More existential than serious More functionally useful for its quest More functionally useful for its quest

for global Pre- eminence than actually for global Pre- eminence than actually genuinegenuine

Unfolding of global war on terror & Unfolding of global war on terror & clarity in US motives (attack Iraq & plan clarity in US motives (attack Iraq & plan to engage; NK, Iran, etc)to engage; NK, Iran, etc)

Transformation from original target of Transformation from original target of being victim to the source of being victim to the source of imperialism in the world imperialism in the world

9/11 enabled US to act in an assertive 9/11 enabled US to act in an assertive manner in the world affairs outside US – manner in the world affairs outside US – a revolution to US foreign policya revolution to US foreign policy

US Policy in ME – support to autocratic US Policy in ME – support to autocratic rule for cheap Oil & revision in Policy rule for cheap Oil & revision in Policy after invasion of Iraqafter invasion of Iraq

Logic for Iraqi Invasion –Iraq was Logic for Iraqi Invasion –Iraq was neither involved in 9/11 nor possessed neither involved in 9/11 nor possessed WMDWMD

US perceptions of attack on Iraq: Oil, US perceptions of attack on Iraq: Oil, Israel, WMD, ideology expansion – Israel, WMD, ideology expansion – change of regime – failed owing to poor change of regime – failed owing to poor intelligence intelligence

GWOT; as War of Choice, irrespective of GWOT; as War of Choice, irrespective of calculation; was a strategic blunder; calculation; was a strategic blunder; neither democracy nor reforms in the neither democracy nor reforms in the regionregion could be broughtcould be brought

US invasion disturbed ME & US invasion disturbed ME & integrated Iran with GCC & other ME integrated Iran with GCC & other ME states & caused Power Vacuum in states & caused Power Vacuum in IraqIraq

Spread of radical Islamism Spread of radical Islamism throughout in the World like; throughout in the World like; bombing in London & Madrid bombing in London & Madrid

Defining the Conflict: Defining the Conflict: Is it a, “Clash Is it a, “Clash of Civilizations”- Huntington theory of Civilizations”- Huntington theory or Conflict between supports of or Conflict between supports of democracy/ Pluralism against Those democracy/ Pluralism against Those Promoting intolerance or supported Promoting intolerance or supported TheocracyTheocracy

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