thesis topics prof. tom murphree dept. of meteorology, nps [email protected] two main topic areas...
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Thesis TopicsProf. Tom Murphree
Dept. of Meteorology, [email protected]
Two Main Topic Areas
1. Climatology in Support of DoD Operations2. METOC Metrics: Analysis of the Performance and
Operational Impacts of DoD Forecasts
For both areas, we:1. Address both meteorological and oceanographic
issues2. Apply science to help meet operational DoD
requirements
Warfighters not getting full benefit of proven operational climo because:
1. DoD climatology has fallen behind the times and relies almost exclusively on long term mean climatology.
2. This is not sufficient for DoD planning and operations. Need to also account for climate variations and climate forecasting.
3. Information often not: (a) up to date; and/or (b) available at sufficient spatial / temporal resolution for area or period of interest.
4. Very relevant climo information, methods, and products not yet readily available to AFW and METOC personnel or their customers. a. not yet adapted for military use b. no central, easily accessible source
5. Difficult to translate climo info into environmental impacts on operations. Such translations are rarely provided in off-the-shelf climo products.
6. METOC units must interpret and tailor available climo information to fit their individual needs. a. too time consuming and labor intensive b. much of this tailoring would be more efficient and effective if done by experts at a central location c. units’ time is better spent tailoring state of the art climo
to the needs of combatant commanders
Climatology --- Statement of Problem
Smart Climo, [email protected], Oct 05
Climatology - Approach to Solving Problem
Smart Climo, [email protected], Oct 05
Adapt and apply state of the art climo methods and products for useby combatant commanders.
That is, adapt and apply methods and products being used in civilian operational climatology.
See examples of this approach on following slides.
by EN and LN climate variations that are not accounted for in LTM climatologies. Figures from Ford, B., 2000. El Nino and La Nina Events, and Tropical Cyclones: Impacts and Mechanisms. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree.
Upper tropospheric height anomalies associated with El Nino (EN) and La Nina (LN) periods. These height anomalies indicate anomalies in steering flow for tropical cyclones (TCs)., with more recurving TCs during EN and more straight runners during LN. This indicates that, for example, Taiwan (Korea) is more likely to be hit by TCs during LN (EN) years. NPS researchers have shown that TC formation sites, tracks, and intensities are affected
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Impacts of Climate Variations on Tropical Cyclone Activity:East Asia and Western North Pacific, October NPS Climo, [email protected], Oct 05
Operation/Mission El Nino Periods La Nina Periods
Air Operations Improved ceilings
Decreased Turbulence
Decreased Convection
*Increased Cloudiness
Increased Turbulence
Increased Convection
Trafficablility Improved surface troop/supply movement due to less precipitation
*Degraded surface troop/supply movement due to more precipitation
Intelligence, Surveillance,
Reconnaissance
Increased ISR capability due to decreased cloudiness and convection
*Diminished capabilities due to increased cloud cover and convection
NBC Defense Less favorable due to increased stability and decreased precipitation
More favorable due to decreased stability and increased precipitation
Ship Ops More favorable sea basing/safe haven due to typhoon recurvature
Less favorable sea basing/safe haven due to westerly typhoon tracks
Green = favorable for indicated operations / missionYellow = marginal for indicated operation / mission*Conditions slightly improved for NE Taiwan due to decreased monsoonal flow.
Impacts of Climate Variations on Joint Operations:Straits of Taiwan, October
Smart Climo, [email protected], Oct 05Slide from NPS climatology course
Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop State of the Art Climo Products:Arabian Gulf, Winter
Upper Ocean Currents, Nov-Mar, Long Term Mean
NPS Climo, [email protected], Oct 05
1 cm/sFrom Ford and Murphree (2005)
Note LTM inflow in Gulf Of Oman.
Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop Smart Climo Products:Arabian Gulf, Winter
Upper Ocean Current Anomalies, Nov-Mar, During La Nina Periods
NPS Climo, [email protected], Oct 05
3 cm/sFrom Ford and Murphree (2005)
Note reversal of LTM inflow in Gulf Of Oman.
Figure shows low level anomaly pattern during periods of above normal precip in SWA. Pattern occurs during specific phases of El Nino/La Nina, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, Madden Julian Oscillation, and/or North Atlantic Oscillation. Example: much of 2004-05 winter. Phase reversal pattern reversal mechanism reversal below normal SWA precip. Mechanisms involve teleconnections from tropics and midlatitudes to SWA. ENLN, NAO, and MJO predictable at leads of one week to six months SWA precip may be predictable on these time scales. Next step: develop forecasting systems based on IO-W Pacific convection.
Intraseasonal-Interannual Climate Anomalies: Characterization and Development of Forecasts
Anomalies and Mechanisms that Lead to Above Normal Precipitation in SWA
Smart Climo, [email protected], Oct 05
From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF;advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.
HL
Above NormalPrecip
Below NormalConvection
Operation Impacts for Periods With Normal (LTM) Conditions
Impact Anomalies for Heavy Precip Periods (e.g.,
MJO Phase 6 Periods)
EO(Electro-optics)
Over Target Area
CIG
CLR-SCT
Abs
Hum
Moon
N/A
CIG Abs
Hum
Moon
N/A
ISR(Intelligence, Surveillance,
Reconnaissance)
Predator – Bagram
CIG >2000’
Vis >3sm
X-winds
<10kt
Icing
MDT
Turb
MDT
CIG Vis X-winds
Icing Turb
Climatological Impacts Forecasts for Operational Planning
Operational thresholds from AFWA/TN-98/002 Revised 13 June 2003
Impact anomalies: red = worse than normal; white = no change; green = better than normal
Sample Forecast Product: Impacts of MJO on SWA Operations
From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF;advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.
Diego Garcia
Bagram AB
Manas IAP
Kandahar
c v x
Incirlik AB
c v x
c v x
c v x
c v x
Herat
Use of Intraseasonal Climate Anomalies and Forecasts in Mission Planning Process
AR ‘B’
Ceiling
Visibility
Crosswinds
c
v
x
No expected enroute weather impacts
Expected enroute weather impacts to airframe may require mission rescheduling
Enroute weather impacts exceed allowed criteria; reschedule mission
- More southerly storm track will result in possible takeoff delays for tankers leaving Incirlik- Tankers leaving Incirlik will see increased turbulence over Iraq and the northern Persian Gulf- Manas can expect increased precipitation- Bagram will see increased frequency of low ceilings and low visibility as well as crosswinds that may hinder Predator ops- Visibility for helos out of Kandahar will potentially be adversely affected by low clouds enroute; result: potential mission cancellation
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Climatology Thesis Topics
Methods1. Analyze climatological data sets for atmosphere and ocean,
including satellite data and model generated reanalysis fields from NOAA, NASA, AFCCC, and other sources.
2. Identify climate variation patterns and processes on scales of a week to several years. Analyze both atmospheric and oceanic variations.
3. Assess the impacts of these variations on regions of DoD interest.
Goals1. Develop improved climatologies for these regions to account for
climate variations.2. Develop improved climate forecasting ability for DoD3. Develop improved assessments and forecasts of climate impacts on
military operations.
Recommended Courses• Modern Climatology, MR 3610
next offering: summer 2006• Advanced Climatology / Atmospheric General Circulation, MR 4250
next offering: fall 2006
Related Student Specialties and Interests• Climatology• Physical Oceanography• Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions• Tropical Meteorology• General Meteorology• Operational Applications of Climatology
Climatology Thesis Topics
AF Thesis Topics
Many topics on the FY05 and FY06 thesis topics list deal with climatology problems (e.g., Korea climo topic). Please see me if you are interested in pursuing any of these topics.
Climatology topics that are not on the current AFIT thesis topics list may still be very attractive to AFW. See me or the faculty with whom I co-advise, Col David Smarsh and Lt Col Karl Pfeiffer, for more on this issue.
“This is exactly the sort of research we need to be doing!”--- Col Berchoff, AFWA, after hearing brief on on-going
SWA climate research by Capt Damon Vorhees, USAF (approximate quote)
Climatology Thesis Topics
Feldmeier, J., 2005. Climatic Variations of the California Current System: Application of Smart Climatology to the Coastal Ocean. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, September 2005. Advisors: Profs. T. Murphree and R. Tokmakian.
Ford, B., 2000. El Nino and La Nina Events, and Tropical Cyclones: Impacts and Mechanisms. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, June 2000. Advisor: Prof. Tom Murphree.
Hildebrand, P., 2001. El Nino and La Nina Events and North Atlantic tropical Cyclones. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2001. Advisor: Prof. Tom Murphree.
LaJoie, M., 2006. The Impact of Climate Variations on Military Operations in the Horn of Africa. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2006. Advisors: Prof. Tom Murphree, Lt Col Karl Pfeiffer.
Stepanek, A., 2006. Improving Medium-Range Forecasts in North America Using Teleconnections Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2006. Advisors: Prof. Tom Murphree, Prof. Chuck Wash.
Vorhees, D., 2006. The Impacts of Global Scale Climate Variations on Southwest Asia. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2006. Advisors: Prof. Tom Murphree, Lt Col Karl Pfeiffer.
Recent and On-Going Climatology Thesis Projects
Meteorology and Oceanography Metrics Thesis TopicsProf. Tom Murphree
Dept. of Meteorology, NPS
Performance of Mission Execution Forecasts Issued by Air Mobility Command (AMC) Combat Weather Teams (CWTs)
From NPS thesis research of Capt Jeff Jarry, USAF, 2005
False Alarm Rate for No Go MEFs Issued by AMC CWTs in FY04
Heidke Skill Score for MEFs Issued by AMC CWTs in FY04
For official use only
For official use only
From NPS thesis research of Capt Jeff Jarry, USAF, 2005
Operational Impacts of Forecasts
Saved Mission a. No Go forecast for original plan is accurateb. Go forecast for accepted mitigation plan is accurate.c. Mission successful using mitigation plan, and would have failed using original plan.
Air Mobility Command WXM Unit, FY 2004Number of Weather Mitigation Actions Taken by Operators
Estimated Number of Missions SavedEstimated Number of Unnecessary Actions Taken
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP FY04AVG
0102030405060708090
100110120130
Metrics Thesis Topics
Metrics Thesis TopicsPercent Forecast Accuracy for OIF CAOC Forecasts
March–April 2003, Mission Type X, Location Y
All
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Gre
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For official use only
For official use only
From NPS thesis research of LCDR Jake Hinz, USN, 2004
For official use only From NPS thesis research of LCDR Jake Hinz, USN, 2004
DUST
Cold Front
Dust Storm
OIF Aviation Sorties: Plans and Outcomes
March 2003 April 2003
Metrics Thesis Topics
Metrics Thesis Topics
From NPS thesis research of LCDR Mark Butler, USN, 2005
Results of metrics research are being transitioned into operational Navy
and AF units
Metrics Thesis Topics
From NPS thesis research of Maj Karen Darnell, USAF, 2006
Results of metrics research are being transitioned into operational Navy
and AF units
From NPS thesis research of LCDR Mark Butler, USN, 2005
Operational Impacts of Weather Forecasts Provided to Naval Strike and Air Warfare Center, NAS Fallon
Metrics Thesis Topics
Integration of METOC Metrics and Operational Metrics
METOC Forecasts *
METOC Observations
METOC Performance
Metrics
Metrics of METOC Impacts on Operational
Performance( Value Added)
Operational Plans
Operational Outcomes
Operational Performance
Metrics
* or other products
Metrics Thesis Topics
Metrics Thesis Topics
Methods1. Develop metrics tools for quantitatively assessing:
a. performance of operational AF and Navy forecasts(both atmospheric and oceanographic forecasts)
a. operational impacts of these forecasts2. Apply these metrics tools to operational AF and Navy data sets.3. Identify most useful metrics for operational use.4. Implement these tools and the resulting analyses at AF and Navy
units (e.g., hubs, CWTs, centers, ships).
Goals1. Develop and apply tools for:
a. measuring the performance of forecasts and other productsb. measuring the impacts of those products on war fighting
operationsc. modeling and predicting the impacts of METOC support
2. Identify methods for improving quality and efficiency of METOC support to war fighting operations.
Related Courses / Experience• Forecasting courses• Real world experience in AF and Navy METOC (meteorology and/or
oceanography) and the operations of AFW’s and CNMOC’s customers.• The operational experience that students bring to this research project
is essential to the project’s success.
Related Student Specialties and Interests• Forecasting / NWP• General Meteorology• Physical Oceanography• Operations Analysis• Organizational / Business Management• Database Development and Management (especially web-based)
Related Student Specialties and InterestsMetrics that quantify the performance and operational impacts of METOC products is a very important issue at leadership levels within CNMOC and AFW. This means research on this topic gets attention at relatively high levels. That has been the case for the metrics thesis research completed by past and present Navy and AF students. Examples: Invited thesis briefs to Oceanographer of the Navy, head of AFW, AFW Leadership Conference.
Metrics Thesis Topics
AF Thesis Topics
Several topics on the FY06 thesis topics list deal with forecast performance and operational impacts (e.g., forecaster versus model topic). Please see me if you are interested in pursuing any of these topics.
Climatology topics that are not on the current AFIT thesis topics list may still be very acceptable to AFW. See me or the faculty with whom I co-advise, Col David Smarsh and Lt Col Karl Pfeiffer, for more on this issue.
Metrics that quantify the performance and operational impacts of METOC products are very important at leadership levels within CNMOC and AFW. This means research on this topic gets attention at relatively high levels. That has been the case for the metrics thesis research completed by past and present Navy and AF students. Examples: Invited thesis briefs to Oceanographer of the Navy, head of AFW, AFW Leadership Conference, CNMOC staff.
Metrics Thesis Topics
1. LCDR A. Cantu, USN, 2001. The Role of Weather in Class A Naval Aviation Mishaps. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Co-Advisors: C. Wash and T. Murphree
2. LCDR B. Martin, USN, 2002. METOC and Naval Afloat Operations: Risk Management, Safety, and Readiness. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree, Co-Advisor: C. Wash.
3. LCDR J. Hinz, USN, 2004. Developing and Applying METOC Metrics to Sea Strike: A Case Study of Operation Iraqi Freedom. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree, Co-Advisor: C. Wash.
4. Capt. J. Anderson, USAF, 2004. An Analysis of a Dust Storm Impacting Operation Iraqi Freedom, 25-27 March 2003. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: C. Wash, Second Reader: T. Murphree.
5. Capt. J. Jarry, USAF, 2005. Analysis of Air Mobility Command Weather Mission Execution Forecasts: Metrics of Forecast Performance and Impacts on War Fighting Operations. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree, Co-Advisor: Col. D. Smarsh.
6. LCDR M. Butler, USN, 2005. Automated Metrics of METOC Forecast Performance and Operational Impacts. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree. In progress.
7. Maj K. Darnell, 2006. Analysis of Weather Forecast Impacts on Air Combat Command Operations. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree, Co-Advisor: Col. D. Smarsh. In progress.
8. LT J. Callahan, USN, 2006. Metrics of METOC Forecast Performance and Operational Impacts on Carrier Operations. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree. In progress.
Recent and On-Going Metrics Thesis Projects
Climatology and Metrics Thesis TopicsProf. Tom Murphree
Dept. of Meteorology, NPS
Contact InformationTom Murphree, Ph.D.Room 267, Root HallDepartment of MeteorologyNaval Postgraduate SchoolMonterey, CA [email protected] voice831-656-3061 fax
Email is the best way to reach me. But feel free to call or drop by my office anytime.