think ahead how next generation networks will change the caribbean telecommunications industry simon...
TRANSCRIPT
Think ahead How Next Generation Networks Will Change the Caribbean Telecommunications Industry
Simon CavenettDirector,Detecon, Inc.
Page 2
Technology and the Evolution of the 21st Century Socio-Economic Environment
Agrarian Age
Localization
Specialization
Customization
1 2 3
Technology and the Socio-Economic EnvironmentThe Three Ages
Industrial Age
Automation
Standardization
Production
Information Age
Globalization
Data Manipulation
Integration
Page 3
The InternetOrigins and Evolution
The Internet has its origins in seminal 1960’s data communications research and development
ARPANET emerged in the late 1960’s
USA defense-related government funded project
Micro-computing revolution during the 1970’s and 1980’s
Office automation
Computer-to-computer networking
Personal computing
The Internet emerged in the 1980’s
Evolution of ARPANET into a global network architecture
World Wide Web emerged in the early 1990’s
The catalyst for explosive growth of Internet access and usage
Page 4
Current Global Environment
The Telecommunications global market is worth US $ 1 Trillion annually
Hence the high public and private interest and attention toward the convergence of enabling business models in the ICT and Media industry sectors.
A Clear Global Trend
A universal socioeconomic demand for greater access to connectivity. Demanded by the organization and the indivireston126
Connectivity demand for: Communication information exchange
Entertainment
Productivity
Packet-based and Next Generation Networks (NGN) service the global demand by offering
New business models, new networks, new services
User-controlled flexibility and customization with few boundaries
Page 5
Next Generation Networks
Next Generation Network (NGN)
In general are wholly end-to-end packet-based (all-IP) networks
All management functions and information data transport functions associated with a service on the packet domain
The power of the NGN concept is the decoupling of the role of service provider from network provider at all levels
From system architecture through to operating business models
Transport
Services
Telephone Services
Data Services (WWW, e-mail, etc)
Video Services (TV, movie, etc)
Point to point, Point to multipoint, Multipoint to multipoint
Point to point, Point to multipoint, Multipoint to multipoint
Transport
Services
Telephone Services
Data Services (WWW, e-mail, etc)
Video Services (TV, movie, etc)
Point to point, Point to multipoint, Multipoint to multipoint
Point to point, Point to multipoint, Multipoint to multipoint
Page 6
NGN’s Overrides Traditional Network Boundaries“Creative Destruction” Threat to the Status Quo
Geo-political boundaries have historically been able to confine circuit-switched network boundaries
For control and regulation of operations and operator companies
Defined inter-boundary interfacing at gateway switches or nodes
Packet-switched networks challenge this structure
Individual IP packets are not required to traverse the same known routes
The ability to regulate and control end-to-end packet flows is almost impossible – unless explicitly done by the network operators
This is a result of the IP packet technology IP routing technology was specifically developed to transport packets across networks
dynamically via whichever route possible.
IP and NGN Technologies are both creative enablers and at the same time destructive disablers of many ICT principles
Creative: new business models, networks, services
Destructive: geopolitically-based regulatory environments, many traditional business models
Page 7
The Melting of ICT Boundaries
In many countries, can categorize the commercial industrial economy into three broad sector classifications:
Manufacturing
Services
Retail
Traditionally in the Services sector, Telecoms operators are broadening into retail
Likewise some retailers are broadening into services.
The motivation for Telecoms operators to broaden their scope and “reach-over” into other industry segments is simple:
Traditional telecommunications business models are dying
Services Retail
Manufacturing
Page 8
Telecommunications Reform
Having begun to break down the barriers between it and other industry segments and sectors, the telecommunications industry is now experiencing increased competition “fight back” from within those “raided” non-telecoms segments and sectors
Fight back within the non-telecoms sectors by incumbents seeking to regain or maintain revenues and market share
Opportunistic entry into the telecoms segment by non-telecoms incumbents seeking new revenue streams
For many companies it is becoming a case of “go with the flow” or get left behind
Pressure is increasing for policy makers and regulators to implement significant ICT reforms
In general the pressure is for liberalization of ICT
Dissolve the boundaries within the ICT sector
And dissolve the boundaries around the ICT sector
Page 9
The Axiom of Future ICT Regulation
The following axiom is appropriate when considering whole national, regional, and international economies and the respective industry players:
In future, it will be difficult, if not impossible to regulate businesses and services by
regulating the respective technologies.
Page 10
Telecommunications Service or Information Service?
The debate has existed in the international regulatory environment for some years about what constitutes a telecommunications service and what constitutes an information service.
The goal has always been to develop a set of definitions that allow individual services to be neatly categorized to either on a mutually exclusive basis.
However no such set of definitions yet exists
For example, with VoIP services the opinion of what belongs where depends on the source
VoIP service providers seek all VoIP services to be all information services all the time
Public safety representatives view VoIP telephony to be the same as traditional circuit-switched telephony
Incumbent telecom operators and lobbyists seek …. it depends on what the incumbent operator themselves plan to do with VoIP and when.
There may be nil or negative political desire to allow VoIP services as information services – since information services are usually less regulated in most markets
National security concerns may exist with regard to as-yet unsolved issues for lawful intercept and wiretap law enforcement needs.
Page 11
The Federalism Effect
In the USA for example, all-IP technologies such as VoIP are directly or indirectly causing the federalism of the ICT regulatory environment.
Classified as information services, or at least with partial exemptions from telecommunications services regulations, VoIP telephony services partially or wholly bypass the local and/or state regulatory environment – defaulting to the federal regulatory environment.
The federalism effect primarily removes geopolitical boundaries within a sovereign nation. Increasingly the roles of local and state regulators is diminishing with respect to ICT whilst the role and significance of the federal regulator(s) expands.
The federalism effect ultimately may not be bounded within sovereign nations but may lead to international regionalization or globalization effects of the ICT regulatory environment.
Page 12
ConclusionsThe Future of the Telecommunications Regulatory Environment
Less Predictability and Control
Until the recent arrival of all-IP technologies, liberalization of the telecoms industry occurred in a controlled and predictable manner.
Melting of ICT Boundaries and Industry Sectors
Historically, telecoms liberalization occurred largely, if not wholly, within the telecoms industry – or at least within the ICT sector.
In future the demands for, and effects of, telecoms liberalization will be spread across the wider industrial economy
Accelerated Rate of Change
Prior to the arrival of all-IP technologies in telecoms, the pace of telecoms policy and regulatory reform used to be measured in decades.
The rate of technological change in the IT sector when applied to the telecoms sector implies that in future what used to occur over a decade will occur within 1 – 3 years.
The Boundary-less Economy
Ongoing federalism effects on the regulatory environment for nations – increased responsibilities on the national policymakers and regulators
Regionalization and globalization effects internationally
New Policy and Regulatory models needed to better match the dissolution of the traditional ICT sector into the “new boundary-less economy”
International Harmonization
Strong need for international regional and global harmonization of policy and regulatory efforts – to better align the regulatory environment with the technology environment.
Stay Ahead
Outstanding opportunities for success.
Simon CavenettDirector
Detecon, Inc.10700 Parkridge Blvd., Suite 100Reston, VA 20191(703) 476-4800 Main(703) 476-2577 Faxwww.deteconusa.com