thoughts on decarbonisation - royal society/media/events/2017/10...thoughts on decarbonisation ron...
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Thoughts on Decarbonisation
Ron Oxburgh
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PLANTS & Other Life
WATER
FOOD
ENERGY
PEOPLE
CLIMATE
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World Population – last 12,000 years
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000M
ILLI
ON
Years
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Population & Energy Use
3E+09
3.5E+09
4E+09
4.5E+09
5E+09
5.5E+09
6E+09
6.5E+09
7E+09
7.5E+09
3000.0 5000.0 7000.0 9000.0 11000.0 13000.0 15000.0
Wo
rld
Po
pu
lati
on
World Energy Consumption mboe BP 2017 & Geohive
2016
2007
1965
1978
2016 >80% of energy from unabated fossil fuels
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The race against time – time constants for pervasive change
• Software 1-2 years
• Hardware 2 -4 years
• Heavy plant 10 - 15 years
• New heavy technology 15 -20 years
• Physical infrastructure 30 – 60 years
• Technologies that will make the largest contribution by 2050 are around today
• some technologies may be too late to be useful
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2015 Paris Agreement
• Will countries be able to meet their pledges?
• Who meets immediate decarbonisation costs?
• Trump and the US
• China• Has driven down the cost of renewables• Scientifically aware government• Aware that they will be a major climate change loser• May in future pressure trading partners to curb
emissions
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What about the UK?Dissolution of established energy silos
• POWER: • Wind and solar ahead of expectations• Still need ca. 50 Gw despatchable power• CCS and new nuclear stalled• Price caps – investment?• Interconnectors
• TRANSPORT:• Electrification – battery +/- fuel-cells• Diesels – Heavy transport?
• INDUSTRY• No real incentive not to vent to atmosphere
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The Levers of Government
•Taxation
•Subsidy
•Regulation
• Needed to underpin business case for action• Provide a level playing field for competition
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0.00
2000.00
4000.00
6000.00
8000.00
10000.00
12000.00
14000.00
16000.00
18000.00
15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 16 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 17 Q1 17 Q2
Quarters 2015 -17
UK total Energy Demand - Seasonality
IndustryOther
‘Domestic’
Transport
DUKES 2017
TTO
E
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Despatchable Power
2050
2040
2030
2020
SMR
Hinckley
CCGT
+CCS
ReformCH4
? Biomass
CCS
ContractInterconnectors
CCHT
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NETPOWER PLANTLA PORTE TEXAS 2017
“Potential CCS Gamechanger nears completion”MIT Technology Review Aug 2017
Oxyburn plantCO2 as working fluidCost similar to conventional CCGT50% efficient on coal60% efficient on gasExhaust CO2 & H2O
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Conclusions
• Timescale is the universal challenge
• UK seasonality & energy storage
• Need for multitrack strategy - complementary developments moving at different speeds
• Currently no credible way of meeting decarb targets without CCS
• Will not be met without a business case for managing GHG
• Possible world role for UK in demonstrating that decarbonisation is practicable and affordable