timber mart-south emerging markets
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
TimberMart-South 1
Southern Timber Market TrendsEmerging Markets
Arkansas Forestry AssociationLittle Rock
September 26, 2012
Thomas G. Harris, Jr., Sara Baldwin, Jonathan Smith & Robert Simmons
![Page 2: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
TimberMart-South 2
TimberMart-SouthCenter for Forest Business
D.B. Warnell School of Forest ResourcesThe University of Georgia
Thomas G. Harris, Jr. , Sara Baldwin, Jonathan Smith & Robert Simmons
![Page 3: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Objectives
• Review Recent Timber Market Trends
• Examine New Market Opportunities
• Strategies for the New Market
• Finish on Time
![Page 4: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Forestry Market TrendsStructural Change
• Globalization of Forestry Commerce
• Industry Disintegration
• Timberland Ownership Change
• TIMOS, REITS and other new owners
• Declining Paper Markets
• Solid wood products Capacity increases
• BioenergyTimberMart-South 44TimberMart-South 4
![Page 5: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
TimberMart-South 5
Forested Regions of the World
![Page 6: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Where Does the Wood Go?Total Roundwood Use for US South
The South’s Timber Industry-An Assesement of Timber Product Output and Use, 2009
* Total fuelwood is any roundwood product, with or with out bark, used to generate heat at a manufacturing facility or to produce heat for residential settings.
Total 6.7 billion cubic feet
![Page 7: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Where Does the Wood Go?Softwood Use in US South
The South’s Timber Industry-An Assesement of Timber Product Output and Use, 2009
Total 4.96 billion cubic feet
![Page 8: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Where Does the Wood Go?Hardwood Use in US South
The South’s Timber Industry-An Assesement of Timber Product Output and Use, 2009
Total 1.78 billion cubic feet
![Page 9: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
TimberMart-South 9
U.S. Timberland Inventory net volume of growing stock by county
Source: US Forest Service
![Page 10: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
TimberMart-South 10
U.S. Timberland Production roundwood volume harvested by county
Source: US Forest Service
![Page 11: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
TimberMart-South 11
South’s Timber IndustryPrimary wood-using mills
Source: US Forest Service
![Page 12: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
TimberMart-South 13
![Page 13: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
TimberMart-South 14
U. S. South Annual Average Pine & Hardwood Sawtimber Stumpage
Prices Pine sawtimber $23.97 (2011) from a low of $4.10 per ton 1960
to a peak of $40.46 per ton in 1998
Source: U.S. Forest Service & Timber Mart-South
![Page 14: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
TimberMart-South 15
Sources: Timber Mart-South, U.S. Forest Service & U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
South-wide Average Pine Stumpage Annual Average Real Prices in 1982 US$/Ton
![Page 15: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
TimberMart-South 16
U. S. South Annual Average Pulpwood Stumpage Prices
Source: U.S. Forest Service & Timber Mart-South
![Page 16: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
TimberMart-South 17
U. S. South Lumber Production
Source: U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Census, and Random Lengths Yardstick
![Page 17: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
TimberMart-South 18TimberMart-South 18
U. S. Wood Pulp Production
Sources: Pulp & Paper International and American Pulp & Paper Association (AF&PA)
![Page 18: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
TimberMart-South 19
U. S. South Total Pulpwood Production
Source: US Forest Service , Forisk & CFB
![Page 19: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
TimberMart-South 20
Annual Housing Starts:1980 through 2011, est. 2012
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (Single Family + Multifamily Starts)
![Page 20: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
TimberMart-South 21
Monthly Housing Starts:January 2006 through June 2012
US Total & US South
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (Single Family + Multifamily Starts)
![Page 21: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
TimberMart-South 22
US South Housing Starts vs. Pine Sawtimber Stumpage
1976 to 2011, 2012 ytd
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (Single Family + Multifamily Starts)
![Page 22: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
TimberMart-South 23
Paper & Paperboard ProductionJanuary 2006 through June 2012
Source: AF&PA
![Page 23: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
TimberMart-South 24
NBSK Pulp PricesMonthly January 2006 through July 2012
Sources: FOEX Ltd
![Page 24: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
TimberMart-South 25
Remodeling Expenditures (LIRA)1996 through present
(3Q 12 through1Q 13 predicted)
Source: Harvard University
![Page 25: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
TimberMart-South 26
Southern Pine Lumber ProductionAnnual 1950 through 2011, 2012 est.
Sources: Southern Forest Products Association
![Page 26: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
TimberMart-South 27
Southern Saw Mill Capacity & Number of Mills
Source: USDA & TMS estimates,
![Page 27: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
TimberMart-South 28
Southern Pulp Mill Capacity & Number of Mills
Source: USDA & TMS estimates,
![Page 28: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
TimberMart-South 29
US South Fuel Wood Pellet Mills
![Page 29: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
TimberMart-South 30
US South Fuel Wood Pellet Mills
• 29 Operating wood fuel pellet manufacturing facilities.
• At least one in each state • Capacity is about 3.2 million tons of
pellets• Conversion is about 2 tons of green wood
per ton of pellets.
![Page 30: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Top Pellet Producers
• Top 3 mills have about half the total capacity – 1.6 million tons per year– Georgia Biomass, Waycross GA– Green Circle Bio, Cottondale FL– Enviva, Ahoskie NC
• 5 Mills at 120,000 - 150,000 tpy
• 21 Mills at 6,000 - 90,000 tpy
![Page 31: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Proposed Wood Fuel Pellet Projects
• 15 new facilities proposed in last 12 months – 5 in 3rd Quarter– All in Georgia or South Carolina
• 6.0 million tpy announced capacity
• 12 million tpy increased wood demand
![Page 32: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Proposed Wood Fuel Pellet Projects• 6 proposed for 2012 startup, largest
– Enviva, Northampton NC - 440,000 tpy
– Westervelt, Aliceville AL - 310,000 tpy
– Fram, Lumber City GA - 138,000 tpy
• 5 proposed for 2013 startup– German Pellets, Woodville TX - 550,000 tpy
– Franklin Pellets, Franklin VA - 500,000 tpy
– Enviva, Courtland VA - 500,000 tpy
– Point Bioenergy, Baton Rouge LA - 440,000 tpy
– Zilkha Biomass, Selma AL 440,000 tpy (former Dixie Pellets)
![Page 33: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
TimberMart-South 34
Operating & Proposed Pellet Mills
![Page 34: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
TimberMart-South 36
US South Wood Biomass to Electric Power Facilities
![Page 35: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
TimberMart-South 37
US South Wood Biomass to Electric Power Facilities
• 15 Operating wood biomass to electric power facilities.
• At least one in 9 of 11 states in the South • Capacity is about 600 Megawatts of power• Average output 40 Megawatts• Conversion is about 10,000 tons of green
wood per Megawatt.
![Page 36: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
TimberMart-South 38
Proposed Wood Biomass to Electric Power Facilities
• 17 Active projects announced in the last 12 months for 2012-2013 startup
• 780 Megawatts of power output• 3 Proposed for 2012 startup
– Piedmont Green Power, Barnesville GA - 50 MW– Green Power Solutions, Dublin GA 50 MW– WGS Energy, Twiggs County GA 35 MW
![Page 37: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
TimberMart-South 39
Operating & Proposed Wood Biomass to Electric Power Facilities
![Page 38: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
TimberMart-South 41
The South’s Pulp Mills as Potential Biomass to Power Facilities
![Page 39: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
TimberMart-South 42
The South’s Pulp Mills as Potential Biomass to Electric Power Facilities
![Page 40: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Wood Fuel Pellet & Pine Pulpwood Prices
TMS & RISI
![Page 41: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
TimberMart-South 44
Proposed Biomass to Liquid Fuel Facilities
![Page 42: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Wood Energy Market Future
• ?????• Negatives
– Policy Driven– Weak economics
• Positives– Renewable– “Green”– Wood is Good
![Page 43: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
TimberMart-South 47
Southern Pine Plantingby ownership type
Source: Georgia Forestry Commission & Smurfit-Stone Container
11 southeastern states plus OK & KY* Est. some states 2005-2008
![Page 44: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Management Strategies
• Emphasis Markets and Timing
• New Sales Approaches– Landowner & Logger coordination– Longer term arrangements?
• Keep growth rates up
![Page 45: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
TimberMart-South 49
Southern Timber Trends
Final
Questions
![Page 46: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
TimberMart-South 50
Southern Timber TrendsSources
• FRA 2000 www.FAO.com• SFRA www.srs.fs.fed.us/sustain/• Wood Markets 2002• North American Pulp and Paper Factbook• Pulp and Paper International• USDA Forest Service • Wood Resources International
![Page 47: Timber Mart-South Emerging Markets](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042508/5564a50fd8b42afd4f8b532b/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
TimberMart-South 51
Southern Timber TrendsSources (cont.)
• Forest Resources Association• APA Engineered Wood Association• Random Lengths• US Department of Commerce• US Census Bureau• US Federal Reserve• AF & PA• SFPA