Titre présentation – Intervenant/réf. - 28 juin 2014 - p.1

Uranium and Nuclear Market, the horizon post-Fukushima

Isabelle LEBOUCHERSenior Vice President Marketing, AREVA

p.3

Uranium market history: the strong influence of anticipated world nuclear fleet evolution

Large stockpiling (production > requirements) in the 70s was followed by stockpile recycling in the 90s. From 2003 to 2007, expected Nuclear Renaissance induced again strong demand. Similar variations could occur in the future.

Source: data from WNA

62 000 tU/y53 000 tU

100 000 tU/y

About 1.2 MtU will be required

from now to 2030

20 000 tU/y38 000 tU

U demand vs U production

$/lb U3O8

Fukushima

Inst

alle

dnu

clea

rcap

acity

Agenda

Post-Fukushima recent evolution and short-term outlook

Long-term view

Preparing the future

1

2

3

IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 4

Shrinking installed fleet Fukushima linked decision

Germany: phase out planned for 2022 Belgium: government set dates for reactor closures (2015-2025) Japan: fleet shut down; nevertheless, safety reviews for restart Switzerland: new energy law draft, new build under question

USA: 5 early shutdowns announcements in 2013-2014

Some new build projects postponed USA: challenging under current electricity market conditions Europe: electricity prices and financing conditions are challenging in some countries

(Bulgaria, Czech Rep,…)

Change in installed nuclear capacity since 2011

IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 5

HEUDownblended Highly Enriched Uranium

- from weapons grade uranium to civil fuel (Russia, US)

The recycling source: plutonium (MOX) or reprocessed uranium (ERU)

Sales of strategic / commercial inventories

Tails assays lower: less uranium, more enrichment services

Re-enrichment of depleted uranium

Uranium Supply from Secondary Sources

MOX (Pu) ERU (RepU)

Uranium stockpiles

Underfeeding

Tails re-enrichment

HEU Russia-US agreement terminated in 2013

Some sources are more easy to forecast – e.g. MOX or ERU (based on long term strategic/political decisions)

Other are much more unpredictable – e.g. excess material disposition by governments (DOE, etc…)

About 19 ktU estimated uranium secondary supply in 2013 (WNA)

IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 6

2013 Uranium production

2013 U production (tU) and variations vs. 2012 (%) Main countries

9,300(+3%)

4,300(-5%)

4,400(-8%)

6,300(-13%)

22,500(+5%)

Canada

Namibia

Kazakhstan

Australia

Niger

3,100(-9%)

Russia

Source: AREVA analysis based on publicly available data and AREVA estimates

Top 6 countries83 % of overall

1. Kazakhstan 38% 2. Canada 16%3. Australia 10%4. Niger 7%5. Namibia 7%6. Russia 5%

Global uranium production at 59,000 tU in 2013 vs. 59,500tU in 2012, while it had grown +8% in 2012

IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 7

ICO

Uranium producers adjusting supply to demand conditions

IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 8

Millennium (Cameco)

Canada

US

Willow Creek (U1) drilling halted

NigerImouraren (AREVA)

NamibiaTrekkopje (AREVA)Langer Heinrich Stage 4 (Paladin)

Kayelekera (Paladin)

Malawi

mines expansion (Kazatomprom)

Kazakhstan

Honeymoon (U1)Olympic Dam extension (BHP Billiton)Kintyre (Cameco)Yeelirrie (Cameco)

Australia

Projects delayed Mines “on care and maintenance”

Supply adjustments to adapt to low market prices

Agenda

Post-Fukushima recent evolution and short-term outlook

Long-term view

Preparing the future

1

2

3

IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 9

Revised Nuclear Generation Projections

GWe

Upper and Reference scenario for nuclear capacity dropped by 11% and 6%Reactor requirement projections adjusted accordingly

2013 vs 2011 projections of Nuclear generating capacity to 2030(WNA Fuel Market report)

IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 10

Current Rate of Construction close to 10 GW/year

5

Source : IAEA website, June 2014 – Retreated considering 1 research reactor in Argentina

1

1

1

1 10

2

12

2

2

2

228

6

5

72 new reactors are currently under construction worldwide

World Nuclear Capacity set to Increase1. Number of reactors commissioned until 2020

Nuclear capacity is projected to increase from ~330 GWe in 2012 to ~430 GWe in 2020 (WNA 2013 reference scenario)

IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 12

+ 5

USA

BRAZIL

+1

RUSSIA

+10+4

EUROPE

MIDDLE EAST

+4

+10INDIA

CHINA

+38

JAPAN27 re-started + 2 new

SOUTH KOREA

+6

CHINA

+108

World Nuclear Capacity set to Increase2. Number of reactors commissioned until 2030

IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 13

+ 9

USA

BRAZIL

+1

RUSSIA

+28+22

EUROPE

MIDDLE EAST

+17

+24INDIA

JAPAN27 re-started + 4 new

SOUTH KOREA

+12

SOUTH AFRICA

+2

Nuclear capacity is projected to increase from ~330 GWe in 2012 to ~580 GWe in 2030 (WNA 2013 reference scenario)

Uranium supply and demand equilibrium(‘000 tU/yr)

Source : WNA 2013

2020 20252015

Under development

Existing mines

Secondary sources

To be covered by new projects

100

0

80

60

40

20

Demand

Impact on future Uranium demand

IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 14

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

25

30

5

20

15

0

10

2013 WNA - Reference scenario2013 WNA - Low scenario

2013 WNA - High scenario

Chinese market growing rapidly

Assumptions : tails assays at 0.22% in WNA model 2013 WNA Reference scenario assumed 58 GW by 2020 and 128 GW by 2030 for China’s nuclear capacity

• China’s uranium demand by 2030 may exceed ~1/4 of the global requirements

• Aggressive uranium supply strategy with 3 main sources: 1. mainland China production 2. market purchases3. overseas production

IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 15

China’s Uranium reactors requirements(2013-2030, ktU)

Agenda

Post-Fukushima recent evolution and short-term outlook

Long-term view

Preparing the future

1

2

3

IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 16

Utilities are looking for reliable, sustainable suppliers

IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 17

An adequate supply in quantity for today’s and tomorrow’s requirements

An adequate supply in quantity for today’s and tomorrow’s requirements

A guaranteed delivery of Uranium in due time

A guaranteed delivery of Uranium in due time

Competitive prices for fuel cycle products and services

Competitive prices for fuel cycle products and services

Respect of commercial commitments even incases of production and delivery disruption

Respect of commercial commitments even incases of production and delivery disruption

Safe & efficient transport with no negative image impact

Safe & efficient transport with no negative image impact

Suppliers certifying respect of environmental, social and governance requirements

Suppliers certifying respect of environmental, social and governance requirements

AREVA: 60-year history of Uranium supply

Others Kazakh Africa North America France

2012

2006- Start of productionof the KATCO mine

1999 - Start of production of the McArthur River mine

1957 - l’Ecarpièremine

1958 –Bessines

mine

1978Cominak

mine

1971Somaïrmine

1981 - Cluff mineand Cigar Lake discovery

1961 – Mounana mine

(*) AREVA accessible share

Historic view of AREVA uranium production (*)

IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 18

Preparing the future:AREVA diversified portfolio of mining assets

Production

Exploration and development

IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 19

Five Factors Determine Mining Investment Decisions

1

5

3

4

2

IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 20

Technical / Project

Economics: ROI, duration of commitments

Environment - Legal / Regulatory

Stakeholders: local government & population

Financing

AREVA investments for the next 40 years will be evaluated using these criteria

AREVA Mining activities: 5,200 people working for you

IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 21

IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 22

Thank you for your attention!