tm 21 annual conference on global economic analysis · laurent cretegny . joaquim bento...

TM

TM

Center for Global Trade AnalysisPurdue University

21st Annual Conference onGlobal Economic Analysis

Cartagena de Indias Convention CenterCartagena, ColombiaJune 13-15, 2018

Framing the future through the Sustainable Development Goals

@GTAP_Purdue#GTAPConference

ANNUAL CONFERENCE ON GLOBAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

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PROGRAM CONTENTS

GENERAL INFORMATION ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 2 CONFERENCE APP and SOCIAL MEDIA ........................................................................................................................................................................ 3 CONFERENCE ORGANIZERS and SPONSORS ............................................................................................................................................................. 4

Organizers ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Sponsors .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4

SPECIAL RECOGNITION .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Co-Chairs ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Program Committee Members............................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Abstract Reviewers ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Conference Mentors ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5

KEN PEARSON TRAVEL FUNDS ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 ALEX MEERAUS / THOMAS RUTHERFORD TRAVEL FUNDS................................................................................................................................ 7 TRANSPORTATION ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 9

Rafael Nuñez International Airport ..................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Taxis and Uber .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9

CONFERENCE VENUES ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Locations / Distances ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Walking Directions .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Convention Center WiFi .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Convention Center Floor Plans ............................................................................................................................................................................ 11

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 13 .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 12 Session Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 12 Distinguished Plenary Speaker............................................................................................................................................................................ 13 Presentation Schedule ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 14

THURSDAY, JUNE 14 ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 25 Session Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 Distinguished Plenary Speaker............................................................................................................................................................................ 26 Presentation Schedule ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 27

FRIDAY, JUNE 15 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38 Session Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38 Distinguished Plenary Speaker............................................................................................................................................................................ 39 Presentation Schedule ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 40

SATURDAY, JUNE 16 ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 44 Post-Conference Event ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 44

PARTICIPANT LIST ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45 SESSION PARTICIPANT INDEX ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 52 2019 CONFERENCE PREVIEW ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 55 NOTES ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 56


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GENERAL INFORMATION

Objective The goal of the annual conference on economic analysis is to promote the exchange of ideas among economists conducting quantitative analysis of global economic issues. Format The majority of the conference features specially organized and contributed paper sessions. The organized sessions have been developed by members of the GTAP Network to highlight a specific area of research and/or policy analysis. The contributed paper sessions were selected through a peer review process and subsequently grouped to reflect the varied themes being addressed by members of the GTAP Network. The conference will also include plenary sessions, each featuring distinguished intellectual leaders in their respective fields whose presentations are designed to introduce participants to new topics as well as provide fresh insights into familiar ones. The content of these sessions reflects the overall conference themes. "Framing the future through the Sustainable Development Goals"

− Technology, wages and growth − The changing architecture of trade policies − Energy transformation—winners and losers − Challenges to achieving the sustainable development goals

Papers from each session can be accessed through the conference homepage on the GTAP website:

www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/events/conferences/2018/ ISSN 2160-2115 (online)

http://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/events/conferences/2018/


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CONFERENCE APP and SOCIAL MEDIA

Whova is a free mobile app containing conference program information and facilitating schedule update notifications and attendee engagement. iOS and Android users can download the Whova app through their device’s app store. To get started, follow the steps below.

Step 1 – Dowload Whova App

Step 2 – Tap “Find Your Event”

Step 3 – Search for “GTAP”, tap result

Step 4 – Tap “Join”

Step 5 – Log in using your email

Invitation code: gtap18 (if prompted)

Step 6 – Enjoy the conference!

Other Useful Notes

− Be sure to allow push notifications from Whova to ensure you receive schedule updates and other communication during the conference.

− GTAP’s social media is linked through Whova. Tweet us during the conference!

@GTAP_Purdue #GTAPConference


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CONFERENCE ORGANIZERS and SPONSORS

Organizers Center for Global Trade Analysis Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) is a global network of researchers and policy makers conducting quantitative analysis of international policy issues within an economy-wide framework. GTAP is coordinated by the Center for Global Trade Analysis which is housed in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University. The Center for Global Trade Analysis’ mission is to provide leadership in economic policy analysis through better data, fostering collaboration, and research. The centerpiece of Global Trade Analysis Project is the GTAP Data Base, a fully documented and publicly available, analytical data base for the global economy which contains detailed country data, linked through bilateral trade, transportation and protection. Accompanying this data base is a set of GTAP-based models used and developed by network members. The GTAP Data Base and analytical framework are used by thousands of researchers around the world. Originally, the majority of the research was related to international trade policy issues. Today, GTAP is still the most widely used tool for trade policy, but its use has expanded into poverty, international migration, foreign investment, climate change, environment, energy, and biofuel policies. GTAP has become a common "language" for many of those conducting analysis of global policy issues with GTAP-based results becoming increasingly influential in decision making around the world in trade, climate change, energy and the environment.

www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu

Economics and Social Research Department Faculty of Economic Sciences Universidad de Cartagena

Universidad de Cartagena is a public university located in the northern region of Colombia. Its main campus is located in Cartagena de Indias D.T. y C. (Bolivar) with a system that has statewide campuses in the Bolivar region and a wide range of academic programs, including distance learning programs, and adult-learning programs. Founded in 1827, initiated with the Schools of Medicine, Law and Philosophy, which had a key role in shaping ideas of national leaders that help to the construction of the national State, such as former University President Rafael Nuñez that became President of Colombia in four times and who established the Colombian Constitution of 1886. In its 190-year anniversary, the leadership of Universidad de Cartagena still on progress by having a wide offer of undergraduate and graduate programs in the field of economics, engineering, science, health, law, education and human sciences, as a response to the needs of the Colombian society. The Economics and Social Research Department in the last 20 years has been part of the social and economic policy agenda of the Colombian Caribbean region by fostering collaboration with private and public institutions in the field of health economics, labour economics, environmental economics and public economics.

www.unicartagena.edu.co

Sponsors

• Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University • Universidad de Cartagena • City of Cartagena • Instituto de Patrimonio y Cultura de Cartagena • Inter-American Development Bank

http://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/

http://www.unicartagena.edu.co/


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SPECIAL RECOGNITION

Co-Chairs − Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Director, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University − Andres Escobar, Depto. de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad de

Cartagena Program Committee Members Angel Aguiar Ricardo Arguello Onil Banerjee Martin Cicowiez Amanda Countryman

Laurent Cretegny Joaquim Bento Ferreira-Filho Angelo Gurgel Thomas Hertel

Russell Hillberry Stephen Karingi Kenichi Kawasaki Zornitsa Kutlina- Dimitrova

Maria C. Latorre Maryla Maliszewska Roberto Roson Nelson Villoria Terrie Walmsley

Niven Winchester Katazyna Zawalińska

Abstract Reviewers Mustafa Acar Saad Ahmad Zeynep Akgul Tariq Ali Katherine M. A. Sanjinez Misak Avetisyan Lacina Balma Seetha Bandara Andre Barbe Güzin Bayar Bineswaree Bolaky Sudarshan Chalise Maksym Chepeliev Caesar Cororaton Alma Cortes Selva Surajit Deb Hanna Deringer Abdoul Madjidi Diallo Sumali Dissanayake José Elías Durán Lima Mingtai Fan Emanuele Ferrari James Fetzer Lionel Fontagné

Jean Fouré Florian Freund Anand Ganesh-Kumar Ziad Ghaith Brad Gilmour Alex Gohin Alla Golub Christophe Gouel Houssein Guimbard Jinggang Guo Jorge Hernandez Marthe Hinojales Yiseok Hong Fernando Izquierdo Hans Grinsted Jensen Dora E. Jiménez Giraldo Kayenat Kabir Alexey Kravchenko Vitaliy Krupin Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova Jing Liu Dmitry Lysenko Aline Magalhaes Paulo Mamede

Ahangamage M. S. Perera Ken'ichi Matsumoto Verena McClain Xue Meng Simon Mevel Rebeca Miranda Fulgence Mishili Abdulaziz Mosa Ronie Nguenkwe Mary Odongo Masahiro Omura Diti Oudendag Kazuhiko Oyamada Marcos Pena Júnior Denise Penello-Rial Xiujian Peng Fernando Perobelli Everett Peterson Talita Pinto Krishna Poudel Manitra A. Rakotoarisoa Jose M. Rueda-Cantuche Amadou Sagnon Radford Schantz

Enkhbayar Shagdar Habtamu Shiferaw Khalid Siddig Mahinda Siriwardana Nuno Sousa Amanda Stamplecoskie Anjali Tandon Isabel Teichmann Tavishi Tewary Natalia Tourdyeva Nhi Tran Truong Truong Komi Tsowou Philip Tuano Vinicius Vale Hugo Valin Beatriz Velazquez Mike Webb Anton Yang Guolin Yao Liu Yu Wusheng Yu Cicero Zanetti De Lima Hainan Zhang

Conference Mentors Philip Adams Onil Banerjee Robert Beach Eddy Bekkers Eduardo Bianchi Pierre H Boulanger Mary Burfisher Martin Cicowiez Erwin Corong Alan Deardorff Peter Dixon

Carmen Estrades Lucas Ferraz Joaquim Bento Ferreira- Filho Eduardo Haddad Meriem Hamdi-Cherif Jong-Hwan Ko Maria C. Latorre Jifeng Li Maryla Maliszewska Marian Mraz

Kakali Mukhopadhyay Brian Mureverwi Badri Narayanan Rehab O. M. Osman Israel Osorio Rodarte Ramiro Parrado Karl Pauw Janine Pelikan Adriana Peluffo Maureen Rimmer Hugo Rojas-Romagosa

Roberto Roson Brent Sohngen Marco Springmann Anna Strutt Farzad Taheripour Saara Tamminen Erly Teixeira Marc Vielle Chahir Zaki


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KEN PEARSON TRAVEL FUNDS

Ken Pearson’s early career was as an outstanding mathematician. In the 1970s he became Reader and Chairman in Mathematics at La Trobe University, Australia. In his teaching role, he investigated the possibility of drawing on economics rather than physics for relevant examples. In this process he came across the newly emerging field of applied (or computable) general equilibrium modelling. Long before the economists, Ken recognized the need for software that would not only solve large scale economic models but would also be a vehicle: for organizing data; for analyzing results; for transferring models between researchers; and for storing models in a computationally accessible form which would allow them to be accessed at other times and by other researchers. By the mid-1980s he had responded to this need by taking up a visiting position at the Impact Research Centre (Melbourne University) and creating GEMPACK. In 1992, Ken moved to the Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS, then located at Monash University). At CoPS, he was appointed Professorial Fellow in 1999, and held the position of Deputy Director from

2000 to 2004. He retired in 2014, with the position of Director, GEMPACK passing to Mark Horridge. Ken died of cancer on May 12, 2015. Throughout his illness, he was stoic, always cheerful, and grateful for a good life. In a summary of Ken’s contribution to the GTAP, Tom Hertel wrote, “Those of us who had the privilege of working closely with Ken count our collaborations with him as among the most stimulating and rewarding of our careers. Ken's keen intellect and his background in theoretical mathematics allowed him to quickly grasp the essence of whatever modeling challenge we posed.” Funding Details In recognition of the many contributions made by the late Professor Ken Pearson to the GTAP Network, the Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University has graciously provided travel reimbursement funding in his name aimed to support the participation of promising young researchers at the GTAP Conference and encourage their contribution to the use and further development of analytical software for CGE modelling, following in his tradition. Recipient(s) were selected based on the following criteria.

− an early career researcher within five years of the start of their research career − active in undertaking applied model-based analyses of real world problems using GEMPACK

or related software − paper accepted into the GTAP Conference

Recipient The Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University and the Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University are pleased to announce the following recipient of the 2018 Ken Pearson Travel Funds.

Debora Freire Professor at Federal University of Minas Gerais Structural impacts of a cash transfer program: an application of a SAM based CGE model for Brazil by Freire, Debora, Edson Domingues and Gustavo Britto (Session #26, pg. 29) Debora Freire holds a PhD in Economics from The Center for Development and Regional Planning (Cedeplar), in the Federal University of Minas Gerais, Brazil. She is currently Professor Assistant at the same university and affiliated as Junior Faculty at Cedeplar. Formerly, she was Visiting Scholar at the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,

United States, and Post-doc Researcher at Cedeplar, Brazil.

She has been working as research consultant applying CGE modelling on projects funded by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and Government agencies in Brazil as the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Development Bank of Minas Gerais; the Center for Strategic Studies and Management; and the Brazilian Industrial Development Agency.

Her major publications and research interests are about Development, Regional economics, Computable General Equilibrium modeling, Public Policies impacts and Taxation. She has presented research papers at various local and international conferences and serves as referee to various academic journals.

http://www.vu.edu.au/centre-of-policy-studies-cops


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ALEX MEERAUS / THOMAS RUTHERFORD TRAVEL FUNDS

Alexander Meeraus is the founder and CEO Emeritus of GAMS Development Corp., a high-tech international development and consulting firm in the area of strategic and operation planning systems and software applied to problems in industry, government and academia. After finishing his studies in mechanical engineering at the Technical University in Vienna, Austria, he came to the US, worked for General Electric in the development of engineering software for computer aided design and joined the World Banks’ Development Research Center in 1972. His research at the Bank focused at investment planning in the process industries, agriculture and water resources. He led the development team for the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS), now widely used around the world for strategic and operational planning and scheduling. In 1987, he left the Bank to fully develop the GAMS software into a commercially viable product. In 1988 he was awarded the INFORMS Computing Society Price for the development of GAMS. In the Celebrating 50 Years of Operations Research festschrift, GAMS was selected

as the 1988 milestone. In 2012, GAMS shared the INFORMS Impact Price for the development of Algebraic Modeling Systems.

Thomas Rutherford received his Ph.D. in operations research from Stanford University in 1987 and is currently a Professor of Agricultural and Applied Economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Rutherford has had a career arc that has touched the most challenging global policy issues of our times—trade, energy markets, and climate change. He has combined his keen interest in economic policy making while advancing the frontiers of economic modeling in spatial, industrial, mathematical and dynamic economics. Another component of Tom’s portfolio is the development of algorithms and software that has led to major improvements in quantitative tools that facilitate the ability to undertake policy analysis. The best known of these tools is the Mathematical Programming System for General Equilibrium (MPSGE), a modeling environment designed to facilitate the development of GE models that is combined with the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). He developed a global model in MPSGE coupled to the GTAP Data Base (known as GTAPinGAMS) that has been widely disseminated and lowered the entry cost to

global economic modeling for GAMS users. Over the years, many modelers have been able to share in his discoveries and insights as he has made many of his models and related tools, largely developed in MPSGE and GAMS, available for public use—such as the GTAPinGAMS model, but also overlapping generations models, the use of mixed complementarity such as in the implementation of tariff rate quotas (TRQs), recursive versus intertemporal dynamic models and many others. Funding Details In recognition of the contributions made by Alex Meeraus and Thomas Rutherford, the GAMS Development Corporation has graciously provided travel reimbursement funding in their names aimed to support the participation of promising young researchers at the GTAP Conference and encourage their contribution to the use and further development of analytical software for CGE modelling. Recipient(s) were selected based on being the following criteria.

− an early career researcher within five years of the start of their research career − active in undertaking applied model-based analyses using GAMS or related software − paper accepted into the GTAP Conference

http://www.gams.com/

http://www.gams.com/


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ALEX MEERAUS / THOMAS RUTHERFORD TRAVEL FUNDS

Recipients The GAMS Development Corporation and the Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University are pleased to announce the following recipients of the 2018 Alex Meeraus / Thomas Rutherford Travel Funds.

Yue (Bonnie) Wang Post-doctoral Fellow, Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong Endogenous carbon price in New Zealand: A forest-CGE analysis by Wang, Yue (Bonnie), Basil Sharp, John Kim and Stephen Poletti (Session #5, pg. 16) Dr. Yue Wang holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Auckland in New Zealand, and joined the Department of Urban Planning and Design at the University of Hong Kong in October 2017. Her research interests are in the area of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling and application, economic policy analysis, climate change, as well as environmental sustainability. Her current research project is

investigating the regional growth and distribution impacts of improved cross- border inland transport system in the China-Indochina Peninsula economic corridor under China’s “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) policy, based on the development of a dynamic multi-region, multi-sector CGE model.

Rayan Wolf Phd Student, Federal University of Viçosa EFFECTS OF THE BOLSA FAMÍLIA PROGRAM ON ECONOMIC WELL-BEING OF FAMILIES IN BRAZILIAN MACROREGIONS: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS by Wolf, Rayan, Erly Cardoso Teixeira, Matheus Wemerson Gomes Pereira, Angelo Costa Gurgel and Leandro Tamio Marques Higano (Session #26, pg. 29) Rayan Wolf graduated in Economics Sciences at Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul, holds a Master's degree in Organization and Society Management from the Federal University of Mato Grosso do

Sul, and is currently a PhD Student in Applied Economics at Federal University of Viçosa, as well as being a PhD Scholarship holder from CNPq. He is a researcher on public policies and social programs; a PAEG researcher and data contributor (General Equilibrium Analysis Project for the Brazilian Economy); and has been researching mathematical methods in economics, mainly focusing on computable general equilibrium models.


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TRANSPORTATION

Rafael Nuñez International Airport Cartagena's Rafael Nuñez International Airport is located in Crespo, a short 10-minute taxi ride from the old town and 15 minutes from hotels in Bocagrande. If arriving from abroad, it is likely that you will fly in to Bogota to catch a short one-hour connecting flight to Cartagena on the Caribbean coast. Jet Blue, American Airlines, Avianca, Spirit Air, and Copa Airlines operate direct flights to the Rafael Nuñez Airport. Direct international flights from the USA, Spain, Italy, Panama, Chile, and the Dutch Antilles, plus more than 20 flights a day to Bogota, make Cartagena one of the best-connected cities in Colombia. Taxis and Uber Taxis operate from the arrivals section of the Rafael Nuñez International Airport and are also easy to find within the city. Uber also services Cartagena.

Cartagena de Indias Convention Center

Rafael Nuñez International Airport

Hotel ESTELAR

Holiday Inn Express

Hampton Inn

Hotel Caribe


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CONFERENCE VENUES

Locations / Distances Cartagena de Indias Convention Center

(Main venue)

Teatro Adolfo Mejía

(Thursday Plenary)

Universidad de Cartagena San Agustin Campus (Thursday Reception)

Cartagena de Indias Convention Center Cl. 24 #8A-344 Cartagena, Colombia

- 1.0 km 15 minute walk

750 m 10 minute walk

Teatro Adolfo Mejía Cr 4 # De La Merced, Cra. 10 #3638 Cartagena, Colombia

1.0 km 15 minute walk - 300 m

5 minute walk

Universidad de Cartagena San Agustin Campus Cra. 6 #36-100 Cartagena, Colombia

750 m 10 minute walk

300 m 5 minute walk -

Walking Directions

Convention Center to Teatro Adolfo Mejía (1km, 15mins) Teatro Adolfo Mejía to Univ de Cartagena (300m, 5 mins) 1. Head northeast on Calle 24 toward Calle 25 (120m) 2. Turn left onto Avenida Calle 24 Real/Calle 29 (180m) 3. Sharp right onto Calle 32/Avenida Venezuela (62m) 4. Keep left to stay on Calle 32/Av. Venezuela (45m) 5. Turn left onto Calle 34 (190m) 6. Turn right onto Carrera 5 (350m) 7. Turn left onto Calle 38 (Destination on the right)

1. Head east on Calle 38 toward Carrera 5 (190m) 2. Turn right onto Carrera 6 (Destination on the right)

Cartagena de Indias Convention Center

Universidad de Cartagena San Agustin Campus



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CONFERENCE VENUES

Convention Center WiFi Network Name: GTAP Password: GTAP2018 Convention Center Floor Plans

301

302A

Level 1 Entrance Coffee Breaks – Claustro de las Animas Lunches – Claustro de las Animas Wednesday Reception – Terraza del Claustro

Level 2

Registration Desk – Portico Explanada Plenary Sessions – Barahona 2

Level 3

Parallel Sessions – 301, 302A, 302B, 303A, 303B, 304A, 304B

Barahona 2

Claustro de las Animas

Terraza del Claustro

302B

303A

303B

304A

304B


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WEDNESDAY, JUNE 13 Session Overview

Session details for this day are listed on pages 14-24. You can also access the conference schedule through the Whova mobile app. See page 3 for details.

Barahona 2 (Level 2)

301 (Level 3)

302A (Level 3)

302B (Level 3)

303A (Level 3)

303B (Level 3)

304A (Level 3)

304B (Level 3)

8:30-9:00am Opening Ceremony

Pg. 14

9:00-10:00am Plenary Session Trading off the Income Gains and the Inequality Costs of Trade Policy

Pg. 14

10:30am-12:30pm

*Session #1 Changes in Energy Consumption and Production

Pg. 14

*Session #2 Modelling global supply chains and government procurement: Implications for trade policy

Pg. 15

*Session #3 Structural change in labor markets and time use – case studies from Africa, Asia, and Latin America

Pg. 15

Session #4 Brexit Impacts

Pg. 16

Session #5 Land Use

Pg. 16

Session #6 Water

Pg. 17

Session #7 Climate Policy and Impacts

Pg. 17

2:00-4:00pm (14:00-16:00)

*Session #8 Student Session - Climate Change Mitigation and Impacts

Pg. 18

*Session #9 New Advances in Data & Modelling of Non-Tariff Measures

Pg. 19

*Session #10 The Continental Free Trade Area and African challenges

Pg. 19

Session #11 Bioenergy and Emissions

Pg. 20

Session #12 Agricultural Policies

Pg. 20

Session #13 Dynamic Modelling

Pg. 21

Session #14 Land Use, Transportation, Electricity, and Demographics

Pg. 21

4:30-6:30pm (16:30-18:30)

*Session #15 Projecting the future: Practices and guidelines

Pg. 22

*Session #16 Institutional Change and Spatially-Specific Policies to Facilitate Sustainable Development

Pg. 22

*Session #17 CGE analyses of FDI flows

Pg. 23

Session #18 Global Value and Supply Chains

Pg. 23

Session #19 Labor Market Issues

Pg. 24

Session #20 Climate and Agriculture (Brazil)

Pg. 24

*Organized Session


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WEDNESDAY, JUNE 13 Distinguished Plenary Speaker

“Trading off the Income Gains and the Inequality Costs of Trade Policy”

Guido Porto Professor of Economics Universidad Nacional de La Plata https://sites.google.com/site/guidoportounlp/ Guido Gustavo Porto is a Professor of Economics at Universidad Nacional de La Plata (UNLP) in Argentina. He obtained his Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton University in 2002. Professor Porto’s research interest are international trade and economic development. He has studied how trade reforms affect poverty and household welfare, especially in developing and low-income countries. He also investigates how households, farmers and firms adjust to trade reforms and trade shocks. He has published extensively on these topics in leading professional journals.

https://sites.google.com/site/guidoportounlp/


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WEDNESDAY, JUNE 13 Presentation Schedule

Presenters (in bold) should arrive 10 minutes prior to the start of their session with their presentation on a USB drive in both PowerPoint and PDF formats. Unless otherwise noted, all parallel session presentations are allotted 30 minutes - 20 for presentation, immediately followed by 10 for discussion.

Looking for a paper? Search by ID# at: www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/events/conferences/2018/

Time Event Location 8:00am–5:00pm (8:00-17:00)

Onsite Registration Portico Explanada (Level 2)

8:30-9:00am Opening Ceremony Barahona 2 (Level 2)

− Opening Remarks

by Thomas Hertel and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University

9:00-10:00am Plenary Session Barahona 2 (Level 2)

Chair: Carmen Estrades

− Trading off the Income Gains and the Inequality Costs of Trade Policy by Porto, Guido

10:00-10:30am Coffee Break Claustro de las Animas

(Level 1)

10:30am-12:30pm Organized Session #1 301 (Level 3)

“Changes in Energy Consumption and Production” Organizer: Andre Barbe Chair: Saad Ahmad

− The General Equilibrium Effects of Environmental Regulations in the Electricity Generation (#5604)

by Antonio, Katherine M. and Badri Narayanan

− A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Expanded Use of Alternative Fuel Vehicles (#5592) by Cai, Yongxia, Katherine M. Antonio, Robert Beach and Jeffrey Petrusa

− Economic Impacts of Bioelectricity from Forest Biomass when Forest Producers have Comparative Advantage: the case of Brazil (#5593) by Alves, Gabriel and Angelo Gurgel

− Validating GTAP-E using the Shale Revolution (#5527) by Barbe, Andre


https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=5604






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Time Event Location 10:30am-12:30pm Organized Session #2 302A

(Level 3)

“Modelling global supply chains and government procurement: Implications for trade policy” Organizers: Lucian Cernat and Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova Chair: Lucian Cernat

− The economic effects of a GPA plus agreement: The impact of BRICS (#5463)

by Kutlina-Dimitrova, Zornitsa

− How to enhance the participation of LDCs in global supply chains: A Global Supply Proposal for a multilateral preferential scheme (GSP++) (#5498) by Antimiani, Alessandro and Lucian Cernat

− Value-added in a Computable General Equilibrium model with oligopolistic competition: drivers and implications of sourcing by agent in the MIRAGE-e model (#5526) by Bellora, Cecilia and Jean Fouré

10:30am-12:30pm Organized Session #3 302B (Level 3)

“Structural change in labor markets and time use – case studies from Africa, Asia, and Latin America” Organizer: Hans Lofgren Chair/Discussant: Sherman Robinson

− Development Strategy, Agri-food System Transformation, and Job Creation: Prospects for the ‘Planting

for Food and Jobs’ Initiative in Ghana (#5629) by Pauw, Karl, Gracie Rosenbach and James Thurlow

− Time Use and the Care Economy in Latin America: A General Equilibrium Analysis (#5546)

by Cicowiez, Martin

− Care in an Aging East Asian Economy: Policy options and impacts on households and labor markets (#5624) by Lofgren, Hans, Marzia Fontana and Kijong Kim













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Time Event Location 10:30am-12:30pm Session #4 303A

(Level 3)

“Brexit Impacts” Chair: Maria C. Latorre

− Brexit consequences for the United Kingdom: The role of multinationals (#5533)

by Ortiz Valverde, Gabriela

− Ireland and the Brexit: What are the Impacts for the Irish Agri-Food Sectors? (#5605) by Boysen, Ole, Kirsten Boysen-Urban and Corina Miller

− Will Br-exit lead to Afr-exit? General Equilibrium Analysis (#5631)

by Osman, Rehab O. M.

10:30am-12:30pm Session #5 303B (Level 3)

“Land Use” Chair: Erwin Corong

− Modeling land use in large scale global computable general equilibrium models: Preserving physical

area of land (#5634) by Taheripour, Farzad, Xin Zhao and Wally Tyner

− Estimation of parameters for the SIMPLE model using a maximum entropy approach (#5613)

by McClain, Verena and Thomas Hertel

− Endogenous carbon price in New Zealand: A forest-CGE analysis (#5486) by Wang, Yue (Bonnie), Basil Sharp, John Kim and Stephen Poletti

*Alex Meeraus / Thomas Rutherford Travel Funds Recipient










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Time Event Location 10:30am-12:30pm Session #6 304A

(Level 3)

“Water” Chair: Jing Liu

− Economy-wide impact of changing water availability in Senegal: an application of the JRC.DEMETRA

CGE model (#5513) by Sartori, Martina, Hasan Dudu, Emanuele Ferrari and Alfredo Mainar

− Water pricing under climate uncertainty – an economy-wide model considering precipitation

stochastics (#5548) by Luckmann, Jonas and Davit Stepanyan

− The Impacts of Climate Change on Surface and Ground Water Withdrawal: A New Global Data Base of

Costs and Returns of Irrigation (#5589) by Haqiqi, Iman and Marziyeh Bahalou Horeh

10:30am-12:30pm Session #7 304B

(Level 3)

“Climate Policy and Impacts” Chair: Jonathan Pycroft

− Boon or Bane? Trade Sanctions and the Stability of International Environmental Agreements (#5643)

by Hagen, Achim and Jan Schneider

− Economic and environmental implications of a target for bioplastics consumption: A CGE analysis (#5524) by Escobar, Neus, Salwa Haddad and Wolfgang Britz

− Climate policy implications from Nationally Determined Contributions to Deep Decarbonization

Transformations in the EU (#5530) by Parrado, Ramiro

− The Impact of China’s Carbon Trading Scheme (#5579)

by He, Jianwu and Shantong Li 12:30-2:00pm (12:30-14:00)

Lunch Claustro de las Animas (Level 1)














18




Time Event Location 2:00-4:00pm (14:00-16:00)

Organized Session #8 301 (Level 3)

“Student Session - Climate Change Mitigation and Impacts” Organizer/Chair: Mary Burfisher Presentations in this session are allotted 15 minutes – 10 for presentation, immediately followed by 5 for discussion.

− Climate finance under a CGE framework: decoupling financial flows in GTAP database (#5523)

by Garaffa, Rafael, Bruno Cunha, Angelo Gurgel, Andre Lucena, Alexandre Szklo, Roberto Schaeffer and Pedro Rochedo

− Global Climate Change Mitigation: Unilateral and Strategic Incentive (#5536)

by Perdana, Sigit and Rod Tyers

− Economic Analysis of Climatic and Agricultural Impacts of Nuclear War (#5563) by Hochman, Gal, Hainan Zhang, Alan Robock, Lili Xia, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe and Saketh Aleti

− The Economic Case for Renewable Energy: a Recursive Dynamic Model Analysis for the Nicaraguan

Economy (#5555) by Cortes Selva, Alma

− Value transportation’s air-quality co-benefits from climate mitigation (#5622)

by Cai, Yongxia, Robert Beach, Katherine M. Antonio and Badri Narayanan

− The Effects for Brazil of Linking Emissions Trading Schemes in the context of the Heterogeneity of Trading Partners (#5547) by Oliveira, Thais, Angelo Gurgel and Steve Tonry

− Evaluation of the socio economic impacts in Ecuador due to refinery matrix change using a General

Equilibrium Model (#5470) by Castro, Pedro, Christian Graßmann and Marcelo Cunha

− Economic and regional impacts of investments in electricity generation in Brazil (#5512)

by Diniz, Tiago, Joaquim Bento Ferreira-Filho and Mark Horridge














19





Organized Session #9 302A (Level 3)

“New Advances in Data and Modelling of Non-Tariff Measures” Organizers: Terrie Walmsley and Anna Strutt Chair: Ralf Peters

− Non-Tariff Measures and Regional Integration in ASEAN (#5490) by Vanzetti, David, Christian Knebel and Ralf Peters

− Modelling the Harmonizing of Non-Tariff Measures: An application to Goods Trade in the Trans-

Pacific Partnership Region (#5561) by Strutt, Anna, Christian Knebel, Ralf Peters and Terrie Walmsley

− New Approaches to Modelling Non-Tariff Measures (#5516)

by Walmsley, Terrie and Anna Strutt

2:00-4:00pm (14:00-16:00)

Organized Session #10 302B (Level 3)

“The Continental Free Trade Area and African challenges” Organizers: Stephen Karingi and Mustapha Sadni Jallab Chair/Discussant: Maarten Smeets

− A Positive Agenda for African Economies: Assessment of the African Continental Free Trade Area Modalities (#5599) by Mevel, Simon and Stephen Karingi









20





Session #11 303A (Level 3)

“Bioenergy and Emissions” Chair: Niven Winchester

− Can the evolution of the European bioeconomy contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals? (#5528) by Philippidis, George, Lindsay Shutes, Hans van Meijl, Robert M'barek, Tevecia Ronzon and Saeed Moghayer

− The Land and Water Implications of Biomass Co-Firing in the MISO region (#5568)

by Sun, Shanxia, Thomas Hertel, Brayam Valqui, Mort Webster and Jing Liu

− What would the US economy and emissions look like without shale gas (#5552) by Chen, Y.-H. Henry, John Reilly and Sergey Paltsev

− Lowering CO2 emissions in the Swiss transport sector (#5485)

by Thalmann, Philippe and Marc Vielle 2:00-4:00pm (14:00-16:00)

Session #12 303B (Level 3)

“Agricultural Policies” Chair: Wusheng Yu

− Modelling domestic and international impacts of China’s grain policy reform scenarios since 2014: a comparison of two modelling approaches (#5544) by Yu, Wusheng and Shingo Kimura

− U.S. county-level impacts of growth in China’s demand for agricultural imports (#5591)

by Cheng, Yichuan and Russell Hillberry

− Colombia’s Agricultural Land Conversion, Expansion, and Policies (#5632) by Valdes, Constanza and Kim Hjort












21






“Dynamic Modelling” Chair: Ken Itakura

− The Dynamics of Asset Ownership (#5454) by Kennedy, Tom

− A GDyn model with USAGE-type Investment Function and Labor Market Mechanism (#5617)

by Xiao, Jingliang and Erwin Corong 2:00-4:00pm (14:00-16:00)


“Land Use, Transportation, Electricity, and Demographics” Chair: Edson Domingues

− AGLINK-COSIMO: Economic Impact on Agriculture of a Low Carbon Economy (#5525) by Jensen, Hans Grinsted

− A spatial general equilibrium analysis of transport policies in Sydney, Australia (#5628)

by Lennox, James and Janine Dixon

− Disaggregating the electricity sector in a CGE model to allow competition theory to explain the introduction of new technologies to the sector (#5550) by Truong, Truong and Hiroshi Hamasaki

− Estimating LES Parameters with Heterogeneous Households for a CGE Model (#5489)

by Gharibnavaz, Mohammad Reza and George Verikios 4:00-4:30pm (16:00-16:30)

Coffee Break Claustro de las Animas (Level 1)










22






“Projecting the future: Practices and guidelines” Organizers: Rob Dellink, Bert Saveyn, and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe Chair: Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

− Macroeconomic drivers of baseline scenarios in dynamic CGE models: review and guidelines proposal (#5641) by Fouré, Jean, Angel Aguiar, Ruben Bibas, Jean Chateau, Shinichiro Fujimori, Marian Leimbach, Luis Rey-los-Santos and Hugo Valin

− Calibrating Supply-side driven structural changes in CGE baseline (#5642) by Chateau, Jean, Erwin Corong, Jean Fouré, Elisa Lanzi and Roberto Roson

− Trade in dynamic CGE models. Theoretical structure, projections, and challenges (#5646)

by Bekkers, Eddy, Lionel Fontagné, William Powers, Alessandro Antimiani, Dorothee Flaig, Joseph Francois, Ken Itakura, Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova, Bert Saveyn and Frank van Tongeren

4:30-6:30pm (16:30-18:30)


“Institutional Change and Spatially-Specific Policies to Facilitate Sustainable Development” Organizer/Chair: Jing Liu

− Global economic and food security impacts of demand-driven water scarcity (#5510) by Nechifor, Victor

− Research on the interaction of energy-water nexus considering spatial heterogeneity (#5479)

by Xia, Yan

− Using Targeted Policies to Manage Nitrogen for Sustainable Agriculture in the US (#5475) by Liu, Jing, Thomas Hertel, Christopher Kucharik, Uris Lantz Baldos, Jarvis Larrisa and Navin Ramankutty









23






“CGE analyses of FDI flows” Organizer: Marinos Tsigas Chair: Andre Barbe Discussant: Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova

− Networks of Foreign Services Affiliates: Evidence from Japanese Micro-Data (#5514) by Spinelli, Francesca, Dorothée Rouzet and Hongyong Zhang

− An Economic Analysis of U.S. FDI in China and Mexico: A GTAP-FDI Model Perspective (#5596)

by Yuan, Wen and Marinos Tsigas

− Export, Horizontal FDI, or Export Platform FDI with Heterogeneous Firms (#5556) by Oyamada, Kazuhiko

4:30-6:30pm (16:30-18:30)


“Global Value and Supply Chains” Chair: Peter Bailey

− Unraveling the economic performance of the CEEC countries. The role of exports and global value

chains. (#5487) by Hagemejer, Jan and Muck Jakub

− HOW IMPORTANT ARE TRADE POLICIES FOR BACKWARD AND FORWARD PARTICIPATION OF THE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA COUNTRIES IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS? (#5572) by Balié, Jean, Ilaria Fusacchia and Luca Salvatici

− Global Supply Chains: towards a CGE analysis (#5504)

by Rimmer, Maureen, Premachandra Athukorala and Peter Dixon











24






“Labor Market Issues” Chair: Andres Escobar

− Unemployment meets a mobility function to model cross-border movements of labor between

Palestine and Israel (#5461) by Agbahey, Johanes, Khalid Siddig and Harald Grethe

− Implications of Refugee Influx on Demographics, Labor Market, and Welfare (#5567)

by Yakut, Aykut Mert

− Innovation and Employment (#5474) by Peluffo, Adriana and Ernesto Silva

4:30-6:30pm (16:30-18:30)


“Climate and Agriculture (Brazil)” Chair: Erly Teixeira

− BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK: REGIONAL PERFORMANCE AND TECHNOLOGICAL

DETERMINERS OF PRODUCTIVITY IN THE CENSUS YEARS OF 1995/96 AND 2006 (#5483) by Felema, João and Humberto F.S. Spolador

− Regional Impacts of Future Climate Change on Health and Labor in Brazil (#5571)

by R. Guedes, Gilvan, Kenya Noronha, Sara Curran, Aline Magalhaes, Edson Domingues, Mônica Viegas, Kenia Souza, Flaviane Santiago, Débora Cardoso and Jarvis Campos

− Demographic Changes and its Impacts on Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Brazil: a

computable general equilibrium model approach (#5578) by Sabadini Carvalho, Terciane, Flaviane Santiago and Fernando Perobelli

− Greening the Brazilian energy grid as a sustainable response to increasing consumption: how feasible

and how costly? (#5573) by Magalhaes, Aline, Gilvan Guedes, Edson Domingues and Sara Curran

6:30pm (18:30)

Reception Terrazas de Claustro (Level 1)














25

THURSDAY, JUNE 14 Session Overview



301 (Level 3)

302A (Level 3)

302B (Level 3)

303A (Level 3)

303B (Level 3)

304A (Level 3)

304B (Level 3)

9:00-11:00am *Session #21 Trade projections

Pg. 27

*Session #22 Assessing the Trade and Growth Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative

Pg. 27

*Session #23 China’s Economic Trends and its Impact

Pg. 28

Session #24 Brexit and EU Trade Agreements

Pg. 28

Session #25 Climate Impacts on Agriculture

Pg. 28

Session #26 Poverty Analysis (Brazil and Southern Africa)

Pg. 29

11:30am-1:30pm (11:30-13:30)

*Session #27 Student Session - Trade, Food, and Poverty

Pg. 30

*Session #28 Modelling African migration with CGE models: from urbanization to international migration

Pg. 31

*Session #29 Regional and global climate policies

Pg. 31

Session #30 Land Use (Brazil)

Pg. 32

Session #31 Climate Impacts on Wildlife and Agriculture

Pg. 32

Session #32 Trade Impacts and Trade in Services

Pg. 33

Session #33 Healthcare and Welfare Reform and Population Demographics

Pg. 33

3:00-4:30pm (15:00-16:30)

*Session #34 International Trade in Services Statistics: Latest Developments to Improve Data for Economic Modelling

Pg. 34

*Session #35 Analyzing trade using new approaches in CGE modeling and parameterization

Pg. 34

*Session #36 Modelling the circular economy: current state of the art and future developments

Pg. 35

Session #37 The Paris Agreement

Pg. 35

Session #38 Food Demand and Security

Pg. 35

Session #39 Economic Growth and Impacts (Asia-Pacific)

Pg. 36

Session #40 Africa

Pg. 36

5:15-6:15pm (17:15-18:15)

Plenary Session How did natural resource exporters manage the recent commodity price cycle? Lessons from Latin America

Pg. 36

*Organized Session


26

THURSDAY, JUNE 14 Distinguished Plenary Speaker

“How did natural resource exporters manage the recent commodity price cycle?

Lessons from Latin America”

Guillermo Perry Professor Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economia https://economia.uniandes.edu.co/profesores/visitantes Guillermo Perry is presently a Professor at the School of Economics at Universidad de Los Andes in Colombia and a Non Resident Fellow at the Center for Global Development, Washington DC. He was formerly the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean at the World Bank from 1996 to 2007, Minister of Finance and Public Credit (1994/96) and of Mining and Energy (1986/88) and Member of the Constitutional assembly of 1991 in his home country, Colombia. He was also Director of Colombia’s two leading economic think-tanks, FEDESARROLLO and the Center for Economic Development Studies (CEDE), a Visiting Fellow at St Anthony’s College at Oxford University (1977/78) and Robert F. Kennedy Visiting Professor at the MPA-ID program in the Kennedy School at Harvard University (2010/11).

He is or has been a member of various Boards and Advisory Committees, such as: the Global Development Network (GDN) Governing Body, the Latin American Advisory Committee of the Woodrow Wilson Institute, the Executive Committee of the Latin American and Caribbean Economics Association (LACEA) and the Board of Directors of FEDESARROLLO, Universidad de Los Andes, Financiera de Desarrollo Nacional, Banco de Bogotá, BAC Credomatic, Ecopetrol, ISA and Empresa de Energía Eléctrica de Bogota, among others. He has also served in several Government appointed Advisory Commissions (Intergovernmental Public Finances -1983-, Employment -1990-, Capital Markets -1994-, Infrastructure -2012- and Tax Reform -2015-) in Colombia. He has had broad consulting experience around the world in public finances, tax, energy policy and industrial policies, through the previous Harvard Institute for International Development (presently CID), the World Bank, IDB and other institutions. Mr. Perry attended the Ph.D. program in Economics and Operational Research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1968-1973). Born in Bogota, Colombia on October 13, 1945, Mr. Perry is married to Claudia Saenz Obregon. He and his wife have two children, Juana and Antonio

https://economia.uniandes.edu.co/profesores/visitantes


27

THURSDAY, JUNE 14 Presentation Schedule



Time Event Location 8:00am–4:00pm (8:00-16:00)


9:00-11:00am Organized Session #21 301 (Level 3)

“Trade projections” Organizer/Chair: Eddy Bekkers

− G-RDEM: A GTAP-based recursive dynamic CGE model for long-term baseline generation and analysis (#5501) by Roson, Roberto and Wolfgang Britz

− CALIBRATING LONG-TERM TRADE BASELINES IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (#5594)

by Fouré, Jean and Lionel Fontagné

− Achieving a long-run equilibrium in the dynamic GTAP model (#5484) by Gretton, Paul

− Long run trends in international trade. The impact of new technologies (#5562)

by Bekkers, Eddy, Bob Koopman and Robert Teh

9:00-11:00am Organized Session #22 302A (Level 3)

“Assessing the Trade and Growth Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative” Organizer: Maryla Maliszewska Chair: Michele Ruta

− TRADE EFFECTS OF THE NEW SILK ROAD (#5635) by Baniya, Suprabha, Siobhan Murray, Nadia Rocha and Michele Ruta

− An Economy-wide Analysis of the Belt and Road Initiative (#5626)

by Maliszewska, Maryla and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

− Trade impact of BRI: a quantitative prospective study (#5535) by De Soyres, François, Alen Mulabdic and Michele Ruta










28




Time Event Location 9:00-11:00am Organized Session #23 302B

(Level 3)

“China’s Economic Trends and its Impact” Organizer/Chair: Yaxiong Zhang

− The effects of the full implementation of "Business Tax to VAT" reform in China (#5453) by Songfeng, Cai and Yaxiong Zhang

− Assessing the Impact of China-Canada FTA with G-Dyn Model (#5625)

by Lyu, Yingkang and Jingliang Xiao 9:00-11:00am Session #24 303A

(Level 3)

“Brexit and EU Trade Agreements” Chair: Hildegunn Nordas

− Losing Preferential Access to Third Countries after Brexit - What is at stake? (#5450) by Freund, Florian, Martin Banse and Janine Pelikan

− Brexit and Everything But Arms (EBA) Countries: Loosing Preferences (#5559)

by Olekseyuk, Zoryana and Israel Osorio Rodarte

− Impacts of EU - Trade Agreements: Which liberalization path is already decided and what can we expect in the future? (#5505) by Pelikan, Janine, Florian Freund and Tatjana Döbeling

9:00-11:00am Session #25 303B

(Level 3)

“Climate Impacts on Agriculture” Chair: Andres Escobar

− CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE COLOMBIAN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR: PRODUCTION AND FOOD PRICES (#5477) by Romero Torres, Bernardo and Andres Escobar

− GTAP-EW7 – A model to assess the impacts of climate change on world water availability and usage

throughout the agricultural sectors of the world economies (#5570) by Hamasaki, Hiroshi and Truong Truong

− Assessing the Impacts of Global Climate Change on Nutrient Availability in Latin America (#5620)

by Beach, Robert, Yongxia Cai and Katherine M. Antonio














29




Time Event Location 9:00-11:00am Session #26 304A

(Level 3)

“Poverty Analysis (Brazil and Southern Africa)” Chair: Martin Cicowiez

− Structural impacts of a cash transfer program: an application of a SAM based CGE model for Brazil (#5602) by Freire, Debora, Edson Domingues and Gustavo Britto

*Ken Pearson Travel Funds Recipient

− EFFECTS OF THE BOLSA FAMÍLIA PROGRAM ON ECONOMIC WELL-BEING OF FAMILIES IN BRAZILIAN MACROREGIONS: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS (#5482) by Wolf, Rayan, Erly Cardoso Teixeira, Matheus Wemerson Gomes Pereira, Angelo Costa Gurgel and Leandro Tamio Marques Higano

*Alex Meeraus / Thomas Rutherford Travel Funds Recipient

− Assessing Policy Failure in a General Political Equilibrium Framework: Derivation and application of a new CGPE-approach (#5590) by Henning, Christian, Johannes Hedtrich and Ligane Sene

11:00-11:30am









30




Time Event Location 11:30am-1:30pm (11:30-13:30)


“Student Session - Trade, Food, and Poverty” Organizer/Chair: Mary Burfisher Presentations in this session are allotted 15 minutes – 10 for presentation, immediately followed by 5 for discussion.

− LATIN AMERICA AND CHINA: Multilateralism or dependency? An approach of Computable General Equilibrium for selected countries (#5455) by Lopes Afonso, Damares, Suzana Quinet Bastos and Fernando Perobelli

− Hunger and Obesity: the “double burden” of malnutrition in a SIMPLE framework (#5515)

by Lopez Barrera, Emiliano

− Free Trade Agreements and import-import substitution effect Evidence from a CGE analysis: the case of EU-Korea and EU-Japan FTAs (#5518) by Porto, Massimiliano

− Key Sectors - Key Policies: Challenges on Estimating and Validating a Policy-Impact Function (#5519)

by Hedtrich, Johannes, Christian Aßmann and Christian Henning

− Applying Meta modeling for extended CGE-modeling: Sample techniques and potential application (#5538) by Jin, Ding, Johannes Hedtrich and Christian Henning

− Modeling the emergence of hysteresis in agri-food sectors (#5553)

by Cosnard, Lionel

− Economic Impact of the United States withdrawal from Trans-Pacific Partnership on Canada: A Computable General Equilibrium Based Analysis (#5557) by Ghaith, Ziad, David Natcher and Suren Kulshreshtha

− India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement and its Impact on India’s agriculture sector (#5595)

by Miglani, Smita















31






“Modelling African migration with CGE models: from urbanization to international migration” Organizers: Giampiero Genovese and Emanuele Ferrari Chair: Giampiero Genovese

− Unemployment and Rural-Urban Migration in Ethiopia (#5502) by Boulanger, Pierre H, Hasan Dudu, Emanuele Ferrari, Kidanemariam Hailu, Alfredo Mainar, Mohammed Beshir Mohammed, Alekaw K Yeshineh and Giampiero Genovese

− A broader perspective on African migration – adding migration to the climate-food nexus (#5488)

by Verma, Monika, Marijke Kuiper, Diti Oudendag, Heleen Bartelings, Lindsay Shutes, John Helming and Hans van Meijl

11:30am-1:30pm (11:30-13:30)


“Regional and global climate policies” Organizer/Chair: Maksym Chepeliev

− The global Paris Agreement: consequences for local outdoor air pollution (#5478) by Saveyn, Bert, Toon Vandyck, Kimon Keramidas, Joseph V. Spadaro, Rita Van Dingenen, Mike Holland, Alban Kitous and Antonio Soria Ramirez

− Global Fossil-fuel Subsidy Reform and Paris Agreement (#5531)

by Chepeliev, Maksym and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

− The Economic, Energy, and Emissions Impacts of Climate Policy in South Korea (#5638) by Winchester, Niven








32






“Land Use (Brazil)” Chair: Joaquim Bento Ferreira-Filho

− A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Securing Indigenous Environmental Management in Brazil (#5569) by Costanti, Elke and Jorge Nogueira

− The role of double cropping modeling for policy assessment in Brazil (#5606)

by Zanetti De Lima, Cicero and Angelo Gurgel

− Potential impacts of changes in the Brazil’s New Forest Code on Agriculture, 2010 to 2030: an integrated analysis based on the GLOBIOM-Brazil and TERM-Br (#5585) by Santos, Mari Aparecida dos, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho, José Eustáquio Ribeiro Vieira Filho and Alexandre Xavier de Carvalho Ywata

− ENVIRONMENTAL AND WELFARE IMPACTS OF DEFORESTATION REDUCTION IN BRAZIL (#5497)

by Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento, Luis Fernando Guedes Pinto, Vinicius Guidotti Faria and Guerd Sparovek 11:30am-1:30pm (11:30-13:30)


“Climate Impacts on Wildlife and Agriculture” Chair: Lucas Ferraz

− Global Trade and Welfare Implications of Climate-Induced Wild Catch Fishery Decline (#5466) by Burkhardt, Jesse, Amanda M. Countryman, Dale Manning, Duy Nong and Travis Warziniack

− The Biophysical and Economic Geographies of Global Climate Impacts on Agriculture (#5633)

by Baldos, Uris Lantz, Thomas Hertel and Frances Moore

− The Crucial Role of International Trade in Adaptation to Climate Change (#5639) by Gouel, Christophe and David Laborde











33






“Trade Impacts and Trade in Services” Chair: Lionel Fontagné

− US Withdrawal From International Trade: Analyzing the Impact on the Global Trading System With a Global CGE Model and a Gravity Model (#5576) by Robinson, Sherman and Karen Thierfelder

− Do investment agreements promote foreign investment? (#5558)

by Dadkhah, Ali and Dan Ciuriak

− On the Duration of Trade in Services: Evidence from Germany (#5603) by Nitsch, Volker

11:30am-1:30pm (11:30-13:30)


“Healthcare and Welfare Reform and Population Demographics” Chair: Kirsten Boysen-Urban

− The macroeconomic implications of public healthcare financing: a computable general equilibrium analysis of Uganda (#5542) by Kabajulizi, Judith, Marcus Keogh-Brown and Richard Smith

− Excursion in Reality - The Nordic Model Revisited (#5587)

by Honkatukia, Juha

− Growing old gracefully: fiscal policy for ageing society (#5543) by Álvarez-Martínez, María T., Diego d'Andria, Jason Debacker, Richard Evans, Maria Gesualdo, Jonathan Pycroft, Estefanía Vázquez-Torres and Magdalena Zachlod-Jelec

− Sustainable consumption and population dynamics in Brazil (#5601)

by Guedes, Gilvan, Edson Domingues, Sueli Mingoti, Kenia Souza, Flaviane Santiago, Aline Magalhaes and Cardoso Cardoso

1:30-3:00pm (13:30-15:00)













34






“International Trade in Services Statistics: Latest Developments to Improve Data for Economic Modelling” Organizer/Chair: Andreas Maurer

− TOWARDS A GLOBAL DATA SET ON TRADE IN SERVICES BY SECTOR AND MODE OF SUPPLY – A PROGRESS REPORT (#5494) by Wettstein, Steen, Lucian Cernat, Andreas Maurer, Antonella Liberatore and Barbara D'Andrea

− BEA INITIATIVES TO IMPROVE AND INTERPRET ITS STATISTICS ON TRADE IN SERVICES AND GLOBAL

PRODUCTION (#5511) by Fetzer, James

− Services Trade Policy, Evidence from a World Bank-WTO Database (#5537)

by Borchert, Ingo, Batshur Gootiiz, Joscelyn Magdeleine, Juan Marchetti and Aaditya Mattoo 3:00-4:30pm (15:00-16:30)


“Analyzing trade using new approaches in CGE modeling and parameterization” Organizers: Saad Ahmad and Zeynep Akgul Chair: Saad Ahmad

− Aggregating CES elasticities for CGE models (#5491) by Horridge, Mark

− Using Power Laws to Identify the Structural Parameters of Trade Models with Firm Heterogeneity

(#5610) by Ahmad, Saad and Zeynep Akgul

− Converting GTAP from Armington to Melitz: giving Melitz sectors to GTAP (#5503)

by Dixon, Peter, Michael Jerie and Maureen Rimmer











35






“Modelling the circular economy: current state of the art and future developments” Organizers: Jean Chateau and Alvaro Calzadilla Chair: Jean Chateau

− Structural change and changes in materials use: a baseline analysis (#5539) by Bibas, Ruben, Jean Chateau, Rob Dellink and Elisa Lanzi

− Modelling the potential saturation levels of iron and steel in China: wider economic impacts and

circular economy implications (#5459) by Winning, Matthew, Alvaro Calzadilla, Victor Nechifor and Raimund Bleischwitz

3:00-4:30pm (15:00-16:30)


“The Paris Agreement” Chair: Sergey Paltsev

− The Paris agreement without US Lessons from an integrated assessment exercise in a second best modeling framework (#5522) by Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem

− Analysis on Indirect Influences of the U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on China’s Coal

Production and Carbon Emissions of Surrounding Nations (#5521) by Kato, Nozomi and Ken Itakura

− Finding itself in the post-Paris world: Russia in the new global energy landscape (#5469)

by Makarov, Igor, Y.-H. Henry Chen and Sergey Paltsev 3:00-4:30pm (15:00-16:30)


“Food Demand and Security” Chair: David Vanzetti

− Will Income or Population be the Main Driver of Food Demand Growth to 2050? (#5618) by Yang, Anton, Christophe Gouel and Thomas Hertel

− Are there positive synergies between agricultural export promotion and food security? Evidence from

African economies (#5464) by Aragie, Emerta Asaminew, Jean Balie, Scott McDonald, Cristian Morales Opazo and Karl Pauw














36






“Economic Growth and Impacts (Asia-Pacific)” Chair: Yoko Uchida

− CGE Simulation of the ASEAN Economic Community and RCEP under Long-term Productivity Scenarios (#5621) by Itakura, Ken

− Understanding the relationship between Pacific Alliance and the mega-regional agreements in Asia-

Pacific: what we learned from the GTAP simulation (#5575) by Garcia, Jose, Camilo Perez-Restrepo and Maria Teresa Uribe Jaramillo

3:00-4:30pm (15:00-16:30)


“Africa” Chair: Brian Mureverwi

− Effects of ICT investment on South Africa’s agro-processing industries (#5564) by Lefophane, Mapula Hildah and Mmatlou Kalaba

− Estimating Elasticities for Crop Production in Niger using Maximum Entropy (#5534)

by Kabir, Kayenat and Thomas Hertel 4:30-5:15pm (16:30-17:15)

Transition Time

− During this time, please make your way to the Teatro Adolfo Mejía for the plenary session, which will begin at

5:15pm. Please see page 10 for the theater’s address and walking directions. 5:15-6:15pm (17:15-18:15)

Plenary Session Teatro Adolfo Mejía

Chair: Angelo Gurgel

− How did natural resource exporters manage the recent commodity price cycle? Lessons from Latin America by Perry, Guillermo








37




Time Event Location 6:45pm (18:45)

Reception and Awards Ceremony Univ de Cartagena San Agustin Campus

− Following the plenary session, please make your way to the Universidad de Cartagena, San Agustin Campus

for the evening reception. Please see page 10 for the university’s address and walking directions.

Awards Ceremony − Partnering Organization and Sponsor Recognition − Conference Travel Funds Recipient Recognition − Alan A. Powell Award − GTAP Research Fellows − GTAP Research Fellow Hall of Fame



38

FRIDAY, JUNE 15 Session Overview


Barahona 2 (Level 2)

301 (Level 3)

302A (Level 3)

302B (Level 3)

303A (Level 3)

303B (Level 3)

304A (Level 3)

9:00-11:00am *Session #41 Brexit and related issues

Pg. 40

*Session #42 CGE applications for Colombia

Pg. 40

*Session #43 Data Base Construction: Inputs & Methods

Pg. 41

Session #44 Free Trade Agreements

Pg. 41

Session #45 Non-Tariff Barriers

Pg. 42

Session #46 Agricultural Policies

Pg. 42

11:30am-12:30pm Plenary Session The Energy Revolution and Developing Countries

Pg. 43

12:30-1:00pm (12:30-13:00)

Closing Ceremony

Pg. 43

*Organized Session


39

FRIDAY, JUNE 15 Distinguished Plenary Speaker

“The Energy Revolution and Developing Countries.”

Channing Arndt Director of Environment and Production Technology Division International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) http://www.ifpri.org/profile/channing-arndt Channing Arndt has more than 25 years of experience in development economics with seven years combined resident experience in Morocco and Mozambique. He has published more than 70 articles in leading academic journals. His recent books include Growth and Poverty in sub-Saharan Africa; Measuring Poverty and Wellbeing in Developing Countries; and The Political Economy of Clean Energy Transitions. He has substantial research management experience including leadership of interdisciplinary teams and has taken leadership roles in major policy documents such as the design of a carbon tax for the National Treasury of South Africa, the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change for the World Bank, and the Second, Third and Fourth National Poverty Assessments for the Government of Mozambique. He has an established reputation for effectively building institutional capacity in Mozambique, South Africa, Morocco, Vietnam and within the framework of the African Economic Research Consortium. His program of research has focused on agricultural development, poverty alleviation and growth, market integration,

gender and discrimination, the implications of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, technological change, trade policy, aid effectiveness, infrastructure investment, energy, bioenergy, climate variability, and the implications of climate change.

http://www.ifpri.org/profile/channing-arndt


40

FRIDAY, JUNE 15 Presentation Schedule



Time Event Location 8:00-11:00am


9:00-11:00am Organized Session #41 301 (Level 3)

“Brexit and related issues” Organizer: Maria C. Latorre Chair: Michael Ferrantino

− Services Trade Policy, Structural Change and Labour Market Adjustments (#5549) by Nordas, Hildegunn

− Brexit and the future of European trade and FDI agreements (#5499)

by Latorre, Maria C., Zoryana Olekseyuk and Hidemichi Yonezawa

− Deep Integration and UK-EU Trade Relations (#5500) by Ruta, Michele

9:00-11:00am Organized Session #42 302A

(Level 3)

“CGE applications for Colombia” Organizers: Ricardo Arguello and Jesus Botero Chair: Ricardo Arguello

− Commodity Booms, Human Capital, and Economic Growth. An application to Colombia. (#5588) by Giraldo, Iader, Ricardo Arguello, Nataly Herrera and Diana Londoño

− The Cost of Tariff and Non-tariff Protection in Colombia. A Computable General Equilibrium Exercise.

(#5580) by Botero, Jesus, Jose Garcia and Manuel Correa Giraldo

− Fiscal Policy and Inequality in a CGE Model for Colombia (#5480)

by Correa Giraldo, Manuel and Jesus Botero









41




Time Event Location 9:00-11:00am Organized Session #43 302B

(Level 3)

“Data Base Construction: Inputs and Methods” Organizer: Maksym Chepeliev Chair: Robert McDougall

− Agricultural Production Targeting in the GTAP Data Base: a Look Ahead (#5529) by Aguiar, Angel and Maksym Chepeliev

− GTAP Data Base version 10 with domestic margins (#5609)

by Corong, Erwin

− Evaluating the Asian International Input-Output Table in comparison with the Three Major Multiregional Input-Output Tables (#5623) by Uchida, Yoko and Kazuhiko Oyamada

− A Bayesian methodology for building consistent datasets for structural modeling (#5545)

by Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Sherman Robinson, Shahnila Dunston and Tim Sulser 9:00-11:00am Session #44 303A

(Level 3)

“Free Trade Agreements” Chair: James Fetzer

− Exempted Sectors in Free Trade Agreements (#5583) by Deardorff, Alan and Rishi Sharma

− Going backwards: Assessing the impact of NAFTA dissolution on Mexico (#5554)

by Estrades, Carmen

− Estimating Economic Impacts of the U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (#5637) by Wei, Dan, Zhenhua Chen and Adam Rose

− The Economic and Distributional Impacts of the TPP and RCEP Free Trade Agreements on the

Vietnamese economy (#5582) by Osorio Rodarte, Israel













42




Time Event Location 9:00-11:00am Session #45 303B

(Level 3)

“Non-Tariff Barriers” Chair: Russell Hillberry

− Economic impact for Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic (CAPDR) of changes in US trade policy, increased regional integration and new trade agreements (#5493) by Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo and Porfirio Guevara

− Comparative Advantages and the Uneven Effects of Non-Tariff Measures (#5619)

by Ferraz, Lucas and Marcel Bertini

− Modelling the economic impact of the China Belt and Road Initiative on countries in Eastern Africa. (#5653) by Mukwaya, Rodgers and Andrew Mold

− Analysis of Trade Facilitation policies on Time to Export and Import (#5541)

by Shiferaw, Habtamu and Taiji Hagiwara 9:00-11:00am Session #46 304A

(Level 3)

“Agricultural Policies” Chair: Amanda M. Countryman

− EU Common Agricultural Policy Post-2020: Exploring the Effects of Safety-Net Policy Instruments (#5608) by Boysen-Urban, Kirsten, Ole Boysen, Alan Matthews and Martina Brockmeier

− British agriculture and diets inside and outside of the European Union (#5574)

by Springmann, Marco and Florian Freund

− Impacts of a NoCAP Scenario on Sub-Saharan Africa (#5507) by Boulanger, Pierre H, Hasan Dudu, Emanuele Ferrari, Robert M'barek and George Philippidis

11:00-11:30am













43




Time Event Location 11:30am-12:30pm

Plenary Session Barahona 2 (Level 2)

Chair: Antonio Soria Ramirez

− The Energy Revolution and Developing Countries. by Arndt, Channing

12:30-1:00pm (12:30-13:00)

Closing Ceremony Barahona 2 (Level 2)

− 2019 Conference Preview

by Jan Hagemejer

− Closing Remarks by Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

1:00-2:30pm (13:00-14:30)




44

SATURDAY, JUNE 16 Post-Conference Event

Rosario’s Island – Isla del Sol A day-trip has been arranged for those interested in taking a cruise to the archipelago of the Rosario Islands where guests can enjoy the crystal clear waters of the Colombian Caribbean. Those individuals who registered and paid to participate in this event should make note of the details below. What to Bring Casual clothing is acceptable. Temperatures in June can range from morning lows in the mid-70s (24 C) to afternoon highs near 90°F (32 C). Rain is also always a possibility. Participants should also plan to bring sunscreen and a hat, if desired. If participants plan to partake in any additional activities on the island aside from the lunch and aquarium (scuba diving, snorkeling, hiking, canoeing, etc.), appropriate attire should be worn. Additional activities are not included in the price of the trip. Schedule

Time Details 7:50am Arrive at Hotel Caribe (Carrera 1 # 2-87, Cartagena) for transportation to La Bodeguita dock. Bus departs

hotel promptly at 8:00am. It is strongly recommended that everyone use this transportation to ensure they do not miss the boat.

8:30am Arrive at La Bodeguita dock (Blas De Lezo, Cartagena, Bolívar, Colombia)

9:00am Depart for Rosario Island

10:00am-2:30pm (10:00-14:30)

Island activities

Schedule subject to change based on weather. Approximate prices Scuba Diving 11:00am 188,000 COP / 67 USD (cash/credit card) Snorkeling or Free Diving 11:00am 65,000 COP / 23 USD (cash/credit card) Ecological hike and canoe trip Throughout day 51,000 COP / 18 USD (cash) Relaxing Massages Throughout day 51,000 COP / 18 USD (cash) Aquarium 12:00pm Included in registration fee Lunch 1:00pm / 13:00 Included in registration fee

3:00pm (15:00)

Depart for mainland

4:00pm (16:00)

Arrive at La Bodeguita dock. Buses return participants to the Hotel Caribe. Everyone is responsible for their own transportation after being dropped off at the hotel.


45

PARTICIPANT LIST

Name Organization Country Email Adams, Philip Victoria University Australia [email protected]

Agbahey, Johanes Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin Germany [email protected]

Aguiar, Angel Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University United States [email protected]

Ahmad, Saad US International Trade Commission United States [email protected]

Ali Boana Hidi, El-Anzize African Union Commission Ethiopia [email protected]

Angulo, Grace Angulo Universidad de Cartagena Colombia [email protected]

Antimiani, Alessandro Università degli Studi Roma Tre Italy [email protected]

Antonio, Katherine M. University of North Carolina at Greensboro / RTI International Bolivia [email protected]

Aragie, Emerta Asaminew Food And Agricultural Organization (FAO) Italy [email protected]

Arguello, Ricardo Universidad del Rosario Colombia [email protected]

Arndt, Channing IFPRI United States [email protected]

Baena, Rosana Universidad de Cartagena Colombia [email protected]

Bahalou Horeh, Marziyeh West Virginia University United States [email protected]

Bailey, Peter New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade New Zealand [email protected]

Barbe, Andre US International Trade Commission United States [email protected]

Batta, Ginger Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University United States [email protected]

Beach, Robert RTI International United States [email protected]

Bekkers, Eddy World Trade Organization Switzerland [email protected]

Bellora, Cecilia CEPII France [email protected]

Botero, Jesus Universidad EAFIT Colombia [email protected]

Boysen, Ole University College Dublin Ireland [email protected]

Boysen-Urban, Kirsten University of Hohenheim Germany [email protected]

Burfisher, Mary Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University United States [email protected]

Cai, Yongxia RTI International United States [email protected]

Castro, Pedro University of Campinas Brazil [email protected]

Castro, Robinson Universidad de Cartagena Colombia [email protected]

Cernat, Lucian European Commission - DG Trade Belgium [email protected]

Chateau, Jean OECD Environment Directorate France [email protected]


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PARTICIPANT LIST

Name Organization Country Email Chen, Shenjie Global Affairs Canada Canada [email protected]

Chen, Y.-H. Henry MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change United States [email protected]

Chepeliev, Maksym Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University United States [email protected]

Cicowiez, Martin CEDLAS-Universidad Nacional de La Plata Argentina [email protected]

Corong, Erwin Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University United States [email protected]

Correa Giraldo, Manuel Universidad EAFIT Colombia [email protected]

Cortes Selva, Alma Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University United States [email protected]

Cosnard, Lionel GREThA, UMR CNRS-Université de Bordeaux France [email protected]

Costanti, Elke University of Brasilia Brazil [email protected]

Countryman, Amanda Colorado State University United States [email protected]

Dadkhah, Ali Ciuriak Consulting Canada [email protected]

De Soyres, François The World Bank United States [email protected]

Deardorff, Alan University of Michigan United States [email protected]

Delzeit, Ruth Kiel Institute for the World Economy Germany [email protected]

Diniz, Tiago ESALQ/USP Brazil [email protected]

Dixon, Peter Victoria University Australia [email protected]

Domingues, Edson FACE and Cedeplar - UFMG Brazil [email protected]

Doria, Magnolia Universidad de Cartagena Colombia [email protected]

Escobar, Andres Universidad de Cartagena, Campus Piedra de Bolívar Colombia [email protected]

Escobar, Neus Institute for Food and Resource Economics (ILR) - University of Bonn Spain [email protected]

Estrades, Carmen Department of Economics, Universidad de la Republica Uruguay [email protected]

Felema, JoãO ESALQ - USP Brazil [email protected]

Ferrantino, Michael The World Bank United States [email protected]

Ferrari, Emanuele European Commission - Joint Research Centre (JRC) Spain [email protected]

Ferraz, Lucas São Paulo School of Economics - Getulio Vargas Foundation Brazil [email protected]

Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz Brazil [email protected]

Fetzer, James Bureau of Economic Analysis United States [email protected]

Fontagné, Lionel Paris School of Economics, Université Paris 1 / CEPII France [email protected]


47

PARTICIPANT LIST

Name Organization Country Email Fouré, Jean Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Information Internationales (CEPII) France [email protected]

Freire, Debora Federal University of Minas Gerais, Economics Department Brazil [email protected]

Freund, Florian Thünen Institute of Market Analysis Germany [email protected]

Fusacchia, Ilaria University of Roma Tre Italy [email protected]

Garaffa, Rafael PPE COPPE UFRJ Brasil [email protected]

Garcia, Jose EAFIT University / University of Huelva Colombia [email protected]

Genovese, Giampiero European Commission - Joint Research Centre Spain [email protected]

Ghaith, Ziad University of Saskatchewan Canada [email protected]

Gharibnavaz, Reza KPMG Australia Australia [email protected]

Graziano, Paola Graziano Universidad de Cartagena Colombia [email protected]

Gretton, Paul ANU Australia [email protected]

Gurgel, Angelo Fundacao Getulio Vargas - FGV Brazil [email protected]

Hagemejer, Jan University of Warsaw and National Bank of Poland Poland [email protected]

Hamasaki, Hiroshi Fujitsu Research Institute Japan [email protected]

Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem CIRED France [email protected]

He, Jianwu Development Reseach Center of State Council China [email protected]

Hedtrich, Johannes University of Kiel Germany [email protected]

Henning, Christian University of Kiel Germany [email protected]

Hertel, Thomas Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University United States [email protected]

Hillberry, Russell Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University United States [email protected]

Honkatukia, Juha National Institute for Health and Welfare Finland [email protected]

Horridge, Mark Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University Australia [email protected]

Hosoe, Nobuhiro National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies Japan [email protected]

Itakura, Ken Nagoya City University Japan [email protected]

Jensen, Hans Grinsted European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) D4 Spain [email protected]

Jerie, Michael GEMPACK Australia [email protected]

Jin, Ding Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel Germany [email protected]

Kabajulizi, Judith Coventry University, UK United Kingdom [email protected]


48

PARTICIPANT LIST

Name Organization Country Email Kabir, Kayenat Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University United States [email protected]

Karingi, Stephen United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) Ethiopia [email protected]

Kato, Nozomi Oregon State University United States [email protected]

Kennedy, Tom Self United States [email protected]

Knebel, Christian UNCTAD Switzerland [email protected]

Kuiper, Marijke Wageningen Economic Research The Netherlands [email protected]

Kutlina-Dimitrova, Zornitsa European Commission, Directorate-General for TRADE Belgium [email protected]

Laborde, David International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) United States [email protected]

Lakatos, Csilla Lakatos The World Bank United States [email protected]

Latorre, María C. Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain [email protected]

Lefophane, Hildah University of Pretoria South Africa [email protected]

Lennox, James Centre of Policy Studies Australia [email protected]

Liu, Jing Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University United States [email protected]

Lofgren, Hans Independent Consultant United States [email protected]

Lopes Afonso, Damares Federal University of Juiz de Fora Brazil [email protected]

Lopez Barrera, Emiliano Purdue University United States [email protected]

Luckmann, Jonas Humboldt Universität zu Berlin Germany [email protected]

Lyu, Yingkang China Agricultural University/University of Washington United States [email protected]

Magalhaes, Aline Federal University of Minas Gerais - Brazil Brazil [email protected]

Magdeleine, Joscelyn World Trade Organization Switzerland [email protected]

Maliszewska, Maryla The World Bank United States [email protected]

Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Commonwealth Science and Industry Research Organisation Australia [email protected]

Maurer, Andreas WTO Switzerland [email protected]

McClain, Verena Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University United States [email protected]

McDougall, Robert Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University United States [email protected]

McFarland, Jim U.S, EPA United States [email protected]

Mercado, Menis Universidad de Cartagena Colombia [email protected]

Mevel, Simon United Nations Economic Commission for Africa Ethiopia [email protected]


49

PARTICIPANT LIST

Name Organization Country Email Miglani, Smita Jawaharlal Nehru University India [email protected]

Milot, Catherine DFAIT Canada [email protected]

Mimouni, Mondher International Trade Centre (ITC) Switzerland [email protected]

Moghayer, Saeed Wageningen Economic Research/Wageningen University & Research The Netherlands [email protected]

Mold, Andrew United Nations Economic Commission for Africa Rwanda [email protected]

Montero Mestre, Jorge Luis Universidad de Cartagena Colombia [email protected]

Mureverwi, Brian African Union Commission Ethiopia [email protected]

Mustakinov, Dean Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University Australia [email protected]

Narayanan, Badri Uni Washington, Seattle; Infinite Sum Modelling Inc.; McKinsey & Co. United States [email protected]

Nechifor, Victor UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources United Kingdom [email protected]

Nitsch, Volker TU Darmstadt Germany [email protected]

Nordas, Hildegunn OECD France [email protected]

Olekseyuk, Zoryana German Development Institute Germany [email protected]

Oliveira, Thais Institute of Technology Sligo Ireland [email protected]

Ortiz Valverde, Gabriela Universidad Complutense de Madrid Spain [email protected]

Osman, Rehab O. M. Faculty of Business, Oxford Brookes University United Kingdom [email protected]

Osorio Rodarte, Israel The World Bank United States [email protected]

Oyamada, Kazuhiko Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization Japan [email protected]

Paltsev, Sergey MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change United States [email protected]

Parrado, Ramiro CMCC Italy [email protected]

Pauw, Karl International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Ghana [email protected]

Pelikan, Janine Thünen Institute of Market Analysis Germany [email protected]

Peluffo, Adriana Institute of Economics (IECON), University of the Republic Uruguay [email protected]

Perdana, Sigit University of Western Australia Australia [email protected]

Perry, Guillermo Universidad de los Andes Colombia [email protected]

Peters, Ralf United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Switzerland [email protected]

Philippidis, George CITA, Government of Aragón Spain [email protected]

Porto, Guido Universidad Nacional de La Plata Argentina [email protected]


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PARTICIPANT LIST

Name Organization Country Email Porto, Massimiliano Kobe University Japan [email protected]

Powers, William U.S. International Trade Commission United States [email protected]

Pycroft, Jonathan Institute of Prospective Technological Studies Spain [email protected]

Rasmussen, Chris US Department of Commerce United States [email protected]

Rimmer, Maureen Centre of Policy Studies Australia [email protected]

Robinson, Sherman International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) United States [email protected]

Rocha, Nadia Trade and Competitiveness Unit, World Bank United States [email protected]

Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis The Netherlands [email protected]

Romero Torres, Bernardo Universidad de Cartagena Colombia [email protected]

Roos, Louise Centre of Policy Studies Australia [email protected]

Rose, Adam University of Southern California United States [email protected]

Rosenbach, Gracie IFPRI United States [email protected]

Roson, Roberto Ca' Foscari University Italy [email protected]

Ruta, Michele World Bank United States [email protected]

Sabadini Carvalho, Terciane Federal University of Parana Brazil [email protected]

Santos, Mari Aparecida dos Escola Superior de Agricultura Brazil [email protected]

Sartori, Martina Joint Research Centre of the European Commission Spain [email protected]

Schiffmann, Florian Victoria University Australia [email protected]

Schneider, Jan University of Oldenburg Germany [email protected]

Shiferaw, Habtamu Kobe university Japan [email protected]

Smeets, Maarten World Trade Organization Switzerland [email protected]

Songfeng, Cai State Information Center China [email protected]

Soria Ramirez, Antonio European Commission Spain [email protected]

Soroka, Natalie International Trade Administration United States [email protected]

Souza, Kenia UFPR Brazil [email protected]

Spinelli, Francesca OECD France [email protected]

Springmann, Marco University of Oxford United Kingdom [email protected]

Strutt, Anna University of Waikato New Zealand [email protected]


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PARTICIPANT LIST

Name Organization Country Email Sun, Shanxia Shanghai University China [email protected]

Taheripour, Farzad Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University United States [email protected]

Teixeira, Erly Universidade Federal de Viçosa Brazil [email protected]

Truong, Truong Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies Australia [email protected]

Uchida, Yoko Institute of Developing Economies Japan [email protected]

Ulloa, Andres Universidad Catolica de la Santisima Concepcion Chile [email protected]

Valdes, Constanza USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) United States [email protected]

van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University United States [email protected]

Vanzetti, David Australian National University Australia [email protected]

Vielle, Marc EPFL Switzerland [email protected]

Walmsley, Terrie ImpactECON United States [email protected]

Wang, Yue (Bonnie) The University of Hong Kong Hong Kong [email protected]

Wettstein, Steen WTO Switzerland [email protected]

Winchester, Niven Massachusetts Institute of Technology United States [email protected]

Winning, Matthew UCL Energy Institute United Kingdom [email protected]

Wolf, Rayan Federal University of Viçosa Brazil [email protected]

Xia, Yan Institute of Policy and Management, CAS China [email protected]

Xiao, Charles Infinite-Sum Modeling Inc. / Ciuriak Consulting Inc. China [email protected]

Xu, Yingying International Trade Administration United States [email protected]

Yakut, Aykut Mert The Economic and Social Research Institute Ireland [email protected]

Yang, Anton Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University United States [email protected]

Yu, Wusheng University of Copenhagen Denmark [email protected]

Yuan, Jean U.S. International Trade Commission United States [email protected]

Zanetti De Lima, Cicero Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University United States [email protected]

Zhang, Hainan Rutgers University United States [email protected]

Zhang, Yaxiong State Information Center China [email protected]


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SESSION PARTICIPANT INDEX

Participants should locate their name below to determine the page(s) and subsequent session(s) in which they are scheduled.

A Agbahey, Johanes ...................................................................................... 24 Aguiar, Angel ............................................................................................... 41 Ahmad, Saad ........................................................................................ 14, 34 Akgul, Zeynep ............................................................................................. 34 Antimiani, Alessandro ............................................................................ 15 Antonio, Katherine M. ............................................................................. 18 Aragie, Emerta Asaminew .................................................................... 35 Arguello, Ricardo....................................................................................... 40 Arndt, Channing ......................................................................................... 43

B Bahalou Horeh, Marziyeh...................................................................... 17 Bailey, Peter ................................................................................................. 23 Barbe, Andre ....................................................................................... 14, 23 Beach, Robert .............................................................................................. 28 Bekkers, Eddy ............................................................................................. 27 Bellora, Cecilia ............................................................................................ 15 Botero, Jesus ................................................................................................ 40 Boysen, Ole ................................................................................................... 16 Boysen-Urban, Kirsten ................................................................... 33, 42 Burfisher, Mary .................................................................................. 18, 30

C Cai, Yongxia .................................................................................................. 14 Calzadilla, Alvaro ....................................................................................... 35 Castro, Pedro ............................................................................................... 18 Cernat, Lucian ............................................................................................. 15 Chateau, Jean ....................................................................................... 22, 35 Chen, Y.-H. Henry ...................................................................................... 20 Chepeliev, Maksym .......................................................................... 31, 41 Cicowiez, Martin ................................................................................ 15, 29 Corong, Erwin ..................................................................................... 16, 41 Correa Giraldo, Manuel .......................................................................... 40 Cortes Selva, Alma .................................................................................... 18 Cosnard, Lionel .......................................................................................... 30 Costanti, Elke .............................................................................................. 32 Countryman, Amanda M. ............................................................... 32, 42

D Dadkhah, Ali ................................................................................................ 33 De Soyres, François .................................................................................. 27 Deardorff, Alan ........................................................................................... 41 Diniz, Tiago .................................................................................................. 18 Dixon, Peter ................................................................................................. 34 Domingues, Edson ............................................................................ 21, 33

E Escobar, Andres ................................................................................. 24, 28 Escobar, Neus.............................................................................................. 17 Estrades, Carmen .............................................................................. 14, 41

F Felema, João ................................................................................................. 24 Ferrantino, Michael .................................................................................. 40 Ferrari, Emanuele ............................................................................. 31, 42 Ferraz, Lucas ....................................................................................... 32, 42 Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento ............................................................ 32 Fetzer, James ....................................................................................... 34, 41 Fontagné, Lionel ................................................................................ 27, 33 Fouré, Jean .................................................................................................... 22 Freire, Debora ............................................................................................. 29 Freund, Florian........................................................................................... 28 Fusacchia, Ilaria ......................................................................................... 23

G Garaffa, Rafael ............................................................................................. 18 Garcia, Jose ................................................................................................... 36 Genovese, Giampiero............................................................................... 31 Ghaith, Ziad .................................................................................................. 30 Gharibnavaz, Mohammad Reza .......................................................... 21 Gretton, Paul ................................................................................................ 27 Gurgel, Angelo .................................................................................... 14, 36

H Hagemejer, Jan ................................................................................... 23, 43 Hamasaki, Hiroshi .................................................................................... 28 Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem ............................................................................ 35 He, Jianwu ..................................................................................................... 17 Hedtrich, Johannes ................................................................................... 30 Henning, Christian .................................................................................... 29 Hertel, Thomas ................................................................................... 14, 32 Hillberry, Russell ............................................................................... 20, 42 Honkatukia, Juha ....................................................................................... 33 Horridge, Mark ........................................................................................... 34

I Itakura, Ken ......................................................................................... 21, 36

J Jensen, Hans Grinsted ............................................................................. 21


53

Jin, Ding .......................................................................................................... 30

K Kabajulizi, Judith ....................................................................................... 33 Kabir, Kayenat ............................................................................................ 36 Karingi, Stephen ........................................................................................ 19 Kato, Nozomi ............................................................................................... 35 Kennedy, Tom ............................................................................................. 21 Kuiper, Marijke .......................................................................................... 31 Kutlina-Dimitrova, Zornitsa ......................................................... 15, 23

L Laborde, David ........................................................................................... 32 Latorre, Maria C. ................................................................................ 16, 40 Lefophane, Mapula Hildah .................................................................... 36 Lennox, James ............................................................................................. 21 Liu, Jing .................................................................................................. 17, 22 Lofgren, Hans .............................................................................................. 15 Lopes Afonso, Damares .......................................................................... 30 Lopez Barrera, Emiliano ........................................................................ 30 Luckmann, Jonas ....................................................................................... 17 Lyu, Yingkang .............................................................................................. 28

M Magalhaes, Aline ........................................................................................ 24 Magdeleine, Joscelyn ............................................................................... 34 Maliszewska, Maryla ............................................................................... 27 Mason-D'Croz, Daniel .............................................................................. 41 Maurer, Andreas ........................................................................................ 34 McClain, Verena ......................................................................................... 16 McDougall, Robert .................................................................................... 41 Mevel, Simon ............................................................................................... 19 Miglani, Smita ............................................................................................. 30 Moghayer, Saeed ....................................................................................... 20 Mold, Andrew ............................................................................................. 42 Mureverwi, Brian ...................................................................................... 36

N Narayanan, Badri ...................................................................................... 14 Nechifor, Victor .......................................................................................... 22 Nitsch, Volker .............................................................................................. 33 Nordas, Hildegunn ............................................................................ 28, 40

O Olekseyuk, Zoryana .................................................................................. 28 Oliveira, Thais ............................................................................................. 18 Ortiz Valverde, Gabriela ......................................................................... 16 Osman, Rehab O. M................................................................................... 16 Osorio Rodarte, Israel ............................................................................. 41 Oyamada, Kazuhiko ................................................................................. 23

P Paltsev, Sergey............................................................................................ 35 Parrado, Ramiro ........................................................................................ 17 Pauw, Karl .................................................................................................... 15 Pelikan, Janine ............................................................................................ 28 Peluffo, Adriana ......................................................................................... 24 Perdana, Sigit .............................................................................................. 18 Perry, Guillermo ........................................................................................ 36 Peters, Ralf ................................................................................................... 19 Porto, Guido ................................................................................................. 14 Porto, Massimiliano ................................................................................. 30 Powers, William ......................................................................................... 22 Pycroft, Jonathan ............................................................................... 17, 33

R Rimmer, Maureen ..................................................................................... 23 Robinson, Sherman .......................................................................... 15, 33 Rocha, Nadia ................................................................................................ 27 Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo ........................................................................... 42 Romero Torres, Bernardo ..................................................................... 28 Rose, Adam ................................................................................................... 41 Roson, Roberto ........................................................................................... 27 Ruta, Michele ....................................................................................... 27, 40

S Sabadini Carvalho, Terciane ................................................................ 24 Sadni Jallab, Mustapha ........................................................................... 19 Santos, Mari Aparecida dos .................................................................. 32 Sartori, Martina .......................................................................................... 17 Schneider, Jan ............................................................................................. 17 Shiferaw, Habtamu ................................................................................... 42 Smeets, Maarten ........................................................................................ 19 Songfeng, Cai ............................................................................................... 28 Soria Ramirez, Antonio .................................................................. 31, 43 Souza, Kenia ................................................................................................. 24 Spinelli, Francesca .................................................................................... 23 Springmann, Marco .................................................................................. 42 Strutt, Anna .................................................................................................. 19 Sun, Shanxia ................................................................................................. 20

T Taheripour, Farzad .................................................................................. 16 Teixeira, Erly ............................................................................................... 24 Truong, Truong .......................................................................................... 21 Tsigas, Marinos .......................................................................................... 23

U Uchida, Yoko ........................................................................................ 36, 41


54

V Valdes, Constanza ..................................................................................... 20 van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique ................................... 14, 22, 43 Vanzetti, David ................................................................................... 19, 35 Vielle, Marc ................................................................................................... 20

W Walmsley, Terrie ....................................................................................... 19 Wang, Yue (Bonnie) ................................................................................. 16 Wettstein, Steen ......................................................................................... 34 Winchester, Niven ............................................................................ 20, 31 Winning, Matthew .................................................................................... 35 Wolf, Rayan .................................................................................................. 29

X Xia, Yan ........................................................................................................... 22 Xiao, Jingliang ............................................................................................. 21

Y Yakut, Aykut Mert ..................................................................................... 24 Yang, Anton .................................................................................................. 35 Yu, Wusheng ................................................................................................ 20 Yuan, Wen ..................................................................................................... 23

Z Zanetti De Lima, Cicero .......................................................................... 32 Zhang, Hainan ............................................................................................. 18 Zhang, Yaxiong ........................................................................................... 28


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2019 CONFERENCE PREVIEW

22nd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis “Challenges to global social and economic growth”

University of Warsaw

Warsaw, Poland | June 19-21, 2019 Objective The objective of the annual conference on economic analysis is to promote the exchange of ideas among economists conducting quantitative analysis of global economic issues. Particular emphasis will be placed on applied general equilibrium methods, data, and application. Related theoretical and applied work is also welcome. This conference will focus around:

− International trade and trade policy and slowing down globalization − Migrations, demographic change and the labor market − Environmental challenges and energy policy

Important Dates/Deadlines Abstract Submissions November 2018 – January 15, 2019 Organized Session Proposal Submissions November 2018 – January 15, 2019 Abstracts Review Period mid-January – mid-February 2019 Status Notifications early March 2019 Final Paper Submission April 15, 2019 Early Registration April 15, 2019 Late Registration April 30, 2019 Registration Payment May 7, 2019 Contact Ginger Batta ([email protected]) Senior Program Manager, Center for Global Trade Analysis Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University

mailto:[email protected]


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NOTES

Center for Global Trade AnalysisDepartment of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University403 West State Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2056 USAwww.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu

TM

tm 21 annual conference on global economic analysis · laurent cretegny . joaquim bento...

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