___________________________________________________________________________

2015/HLPD-STHE/015 Session 2-3

To Train Smarter Disaster Managers Through Better Applying Science and Technology

Purpose: Information

Submitted by: Chinese Taipei

High Level Policy Dialogue on Science and Technology in Higher Education

Manila, Philippines13-14 August 2015

2015/8/17

1

Totrainsmarterdisastermanagersthroughbetterapplyingscienceandtechnology

WeiSenLiSecretaryGeneral,NationalSceinceandTechnologyCenterforDisasterReduction,ChineseTaipei

CoChairAPECEmergencyPreparedness

2015APECHIGHLEVELPOLICYDIALOGUEONSCIENCEANDTECHNOLOGYINHIGHEREDUCATION,MANILA,PHILIPPINES

scientificbaseddisasterriskmanagement

APECregionahighlydisasterpronearea

2

EarthquakeChina, 2008

Earthquake & Tsunami Japan, 2011

TyphoonPhilippines,2013

Debris flow China, 2010

FloodThailand, 2011

Recurrenceoflargescaledisasters

2015/8/17

2

Vulnerableglobalsupplychain Economicactivitiesexposedtonaturalhazards Widerconsiderationofimpactsbydisasters Roleandparticipationofprivatesectors (FloodinThailand,2011)

Increasingpopulation Rapidandunplannedurbanization Poorlanduse Climatechange(FloodinthePhilippines,2009)

Newchallenges andNewnormal unprecedentedbecomesnormal

3

RecentReportbyMaplecroft,2011economicactivitiesexposedtonaturalhazards

4

ChineseTaipei

Russia

Philippines

China

Japan

Indonesia

Australia

NewZealand

USA

ExtremeriskHighriskMediumriskLowriskNoData

10oftop20areAPECmembereconomies

2015/8/17

3

Maplecroft's SocioeconomicResilienceIndex2013mitigate,prepareforandrespondtonaturaldisasters

ChineseTaipei

FactorsleadingtolowriskinChineseTaipei Transparentrisk

WebsitetodownloadRiskmapsofflood,landslideanddebrisflow

Wellorganizedlegalframeworks DisasterPreventionandResponseAct(2000~)

OfficeofDisasterManagement(2009~)

Activeparticipationbyprivatesector

NGOsandNPOs Communities Academia,professionalgroups

Missionfordisastermanagerstocarryoutmicroormacroscale;answerorsolution

Ontextbook,onlyoneanswerForasolution,

overallunderstandingisbasic

2015/8/17

4

Innovationofdisasterresiliencebuildingincivilsociety howS&Thelptounderstandnaturalhazards

Hazard

Impacts

NowPREDICTION

PREDICTION

ResponsesPREDICTION

GordonMcBean

TraditionalEarlyWarningSystem(Science&Tech)

Tounderstandcharacterizesofnaturalhazard

byobservationsandmodels

ExtendedEarlyWarningSystem

(Social&Economic)

ToestimateimpactsbyIntegratingsocialscienceandimprovingdecisions

HumancenteredEarlyWarningSystem

(EducationandCapacity)

HumancenteredEarlyWarningSystem

(EducationandCapacity)

NOGs Riskcommunicationatcommunities Easilyunderstandable

Evacuation Totellroutes,sheltersandrisk

potential Clearlytotakeactions

Emergencyoperation Decisionmaking,commonoperating

picture Integratedproducts

Riskassessment Tobereferenceofinsuranceorrisk

identification Prepareformultiplehazards

Urbanplanningandlanduse Tocontrolrisks Sustainability

Businesscontinuityplan Toprotectemployees,estatesand

profits Privatesectorsinvolvement

Drill Tosetupscenarioswithdifferent

levelsofrisk Connectallstakeholders

Makingplans Toenhanceresilience,preparedness,

responsesandrecovery Before,duringandafteradisaster

TargetapplicationsofS&Tfordisasterriskreduction diverseandcomplicated

2015/8/17

5

Fourprioritiesfornext15yearslistedintheSendaiFrameworkforDisasterRiskReduction(SFDRR)

01

02

03

04

Strengtheningdisasterriskgovernancetomanagedisasterrisk

EnhancingdisasterpreparednessforeffectiveresponseandBuildBackBetter

Understandingdisasterrisk

Investingindisasterriskreductionforresilience

ExampleofusingS&TduringtyphoonemergencyoperationinCT scientists,emergencyrespondersanddecisionmakers

10

Water pump

Personnel dispatch

Early evacuation

2015/8/17

6

Observationsandmeasurementsprovideevidenceforweatherforecastinganddecisionmaking(lastweek)

CWB andNTU

Latest 24hr (200mm/24hr)Yilan County: Warning areasToucheng Jiaoxi ZhuangweiYuanshan Yilan City WujieSanxin Luodong DongshanSuaoMajor flooded areas

Estimated floods in24hrs based on forecastissued by CBW

Toucheng

Jiaoxi

Yilan City

Wujie

Luodong

DongshanSuao

Sanxin

Yuanshan

Flood Depth

0.31.0m 1.02.0m 2.03.0m > 3.0m

0.51.0

12

Warning

Yilan County

Floodsscenariowithfactorsoftime,locationsandimpacts clearmessagestodecisionmakers

2015/8/17

7

Evidencebasedemergencyoperation Earlyevacuation tomakedecisionsbasedonscienceandtechnology

PotentialRiskMapofdebrisflowattownshiplevel

Accumulatedrainfallupto 400600mm

Scientificevidence tocarryoutearlyevacuation

Thresholdvalueofdebris flow

200mmaccumulatedrainfallin24hrs

Forecastofrainfall

Intensityofrainfall(Model)

Criticalpointatmidnight

Redalert(Historicaldata)

Thebestperiodoftimetoevacuateresidents Daytime Arrangedtransportation

Observeddata

Historicaldata

Observeddata

Numericalmodels

TakeAction!

TyphoonKongReyin2013

CaseofsuccessfulearlyevacuationduringTyphoonFanapi ,inLaiYivillage,Sep.2010

14

9/1805:30

9/1908:4014:00 15:00 23:00

Issuelandwarning

Earlywarningofrisk

Evacuationoperation

Typhoonlandfalltime

LandsideinLaiYi

1. Buriedhouses:502. Causality:03. 400residentsevacuated

32hoursahead

2009afterTyphoonMorakot

2015/8/17

8

Proactiveevacuation

Redalert

Yellowalert

Evacuationcompleted

Mudflowhappened

Leadtime16hrs

CaseofsuccessfulearlyevacuationduringTyphoonSoudelor inLaiYivillage,Aug.7,2015

SoilandWaterConservationBureau

()

( )

( )

mapping

field survey

Relevant resource

environmental & social vulnerability

Past disasters

Understandablehazardmapasatoolforriskcommunicationstotellbothphysicalandsocialvulnerability

16

2015/8/17

9

RiskIdentificationthroughparticipationbylocalresidentsmakeS&Tunderstandable

Dialogues,Assessment,TrainingandScenariobaseddrill knowledgetransfer

18

Assessment

Training Scenariobaseddrill

GroupDiscussion

2015/8/17

10

Communitylevelhazardmapforaindigenoustribe anoperationguideline

19

Casualtiescausebycollapsedbuildings

SimulatedEQ

Landslides

Liquefaction

Systemfailures

Powersupply

Watersupply

Transportation

Scenariobasedanalysisforurbanarea integratedknowledgetosolvechallenges

2015/8/17

11

Todevelopinformationbasedpreparednessandscenariosonearthquakes tofindtheurgentneeds

21

Amodelofcrosscuttingcollaboration ascientificlinkageamongrelevantstakeholders

NCDR

MinistryofSceinceandTechnology

SuperviseProvidefunds

Proposetopics

Since2003

100fulltimestaffNaturalscience

SocialscienceEngineering

EmergencymanagementBusinessmanagement

MajorservicesS&TtransferS&TinnovationKnowledgebaseDatabaseInternationalcollaboration

MajorproductsAppliedandinterdisciplinary researchPolicyofDRRforcentralandlocalgovernmentInformationintegrationEmergencyoperation(notsearchandrescue)IdentificationofurgentneedsandlongtermdemandsIntegrationofpotentialriskmaps

Partnersandkeystakeholders

PublicsectorCentralgovernment

MinistriesandagenciesLocalGovernment

MunicipalitiesandtownshipsPrivatesector

Universities,researchinstitutes NGOs,NPOs Communities

Internationaloutreach IRDR,ICoE Taipei ADRC,NIED,DPRI(JP) PDC(US) ADPC(TH) NDMI(KR) APECEPWG

2015/8/17

12

Tosolvefurtherrisk akeystepisusingdata(BigorOpen)

Usetobigoropendata Dataarchives Cloudsystem Dataformat Exchangeprotocols Officialsitesorsocial

media

Inclusivestakeholders Governments Researchinstitutes NGOs,NPOs Media,socialmedia Citizens

Informationintelligence DataOrganizing DataAnalyzing Datawarehousing DataPresenting Extract,Transformand

Load

Basictypeofdatasets Physicalvulnerabilities Socialvulnerabilities Historicalevents Numericalmodels Observations

Keyissuesofusingbigdataandopendata

2015/8/17

13

In order to apply Big data and Open data for betteremergency preparedness, the major challenges toovercome

1. Volume: overwhelming amount of data sets, howto identify relationship for integration

2. Velocity: during urgent moments, pop-upsituations and information could hamper decisionmaking

3. Varity: different and diverse data sets arerequired to delivered information or maps byrequest

4. Verification: duplications or rumors fromdifference sources need rules and synergy tofocus real issues

Sceince and technology

Understandableknowledge

Peoplesmindset

Takeactions

Transformation

Interpretation

Perception

Themajorchallengesofusingdata

Furthercomprehensivecollaborationonbusinessresiliencethroughregionalsynergyandcrosscuttingknowledge

26

Businessresilience

EmergencyResponseTravelFacilitation

GlobalSupplyChainResilience

ApplicationofOpendataandBigdatato

Emergency Preparedness

CriticalInfrastructureSecurityandResilience

EPWG, PPSTI

EPWG, SCCP, BMG TPTWGSMEWG

CTWG

BuildingInclusiveEconomies,BuildingaBetterWorld BuildingSustainable andResilientCommunities

2015APECTheme

2015/8/17

14

Conclusions:RolesofS&Ttoreduceloss Fromsciencetodecisionmaking

ScientificPrediction Scientific

Prediction Rea-time

MonitoringRea-time

MonitoringIn-time

OperationIn-time

OperationKey elements to

succeed

Provideforecastingbasedonscientificmodels

Toolforpredisasterdeployment

Referencefordecisionsupport

Limitedbytechnologydevelopment

Provideupdateddatabasedongauges

Toolforpinpointingblindareasbyforecast

Referenceforrevisingdecisionsupport

Limitedbynumber,location,transmission

Providereactionbasedonwelldefinedplan

Toolforsavingmoretimebeforeitstoolate

Referenceforallocatingemergencysupport

Limitedbydeterminationofallleveadministrators

I

Anintegrationof

Naturalscience Socialscience Engineering ICT,Socialmedia Emergencymanagement Multiplekeystakeholders Publicprivatepartnership .

Thanks