tom coughlin tom...coughlin associates 1665 willowmont ave. san jose, ca 95124 phone/fax: (408) 978...
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Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
TOM COUGHLINPresidentCoughlin Associates1665 Willowmont Ave.San Jose, CA 95124Phone/Fax: (408) 978 8184Email: [email protected]
Tom’s 20+ years of magnetic recording experience included flexible tape and floppy as well as rigid disk recording at such companies as Polaroid, Seagate Technology, Maxtor, Micropolis, Nashua Computer Products,Ampex and SyQuest. Since 1997 Tom has worked with Dennis Waid at Peripheral Research Corporation co-writing several of the annual PRC reports. He has published over 40 articles, reports, technical papers and presentations. Tom has provided marketing, intellectual property and technology assessments and projections for several data storage technologies companies and venture capitalists. In addition he has served as project and general manager for significant technical projects.
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
A Drive For All Seasons
Thomas M. CoughlinCoughlin Associates
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Outline• Continuous growth in HDD areal density are
expected and drive unit growth is increasing.• The creation, editing, archiving and distribution of
digital content is an enormous driver for digital storage growth.
• The consumer value chain creates the means for reception of digital content and itself drives digital storage needs.
• Hard Disk Drives but also other storage technologies in the digital memory hierarchy play an important role in creating new digital content applications.
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
The Continuum of Recorded Human Experience
Cave Paintings Cuniform Tablets Gutenberg Printing
RAMAC and Recording TapePVPs and Modern
RAID Arrays
FUTUREPersonal Life
Journalsand Advanced
Intelligent Storage Networks
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
2000: Titanic Technology, Sinking Margins
SS Areal Density
Investors
Key EmployeesComponent Suppliers
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
AREAL DENSITY PROGRESSION / 2000-2003 TECHNOLOGY DEMONSTRATIONS / PRODUCTS
(GIGABITS / SQUARE INCH)
020406080
100120140160180
Are
al D
ensi
ty (G
b/in
Q1
2000
Q2
2000
Q3
2000
Q4
2000
Q1
2001
Q2
2001
Q3
2001
Q4
2001
Q1
2002
Q2
2002
Q3
2002
Q4
2002
Q1
2003
Q2
2003
Q3
2003
Q4
2003
TECHNOLOGY PRODUCT
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
SHIPPING PRODUCT DISK CAPACITY PROJECTIONS
Year 95mm Mainstream Capacity Per Platter2002 402003 802004 1202005 1802006 270
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
What this Means For HDDs
320 GB95 mm, 4-disks
2003320 GB
65 mm, 2-disks2006-2007
320 GB48 mm, 2-disks
2008+
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Market Niche Projections
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Uni
ts in
thou
sand
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
MobileCEDesktopEnterprise ATAEnterprise
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Digital Content Value Chain
Content Distribution
Content Reception
Content Creation
Content Editing
Content Archiving
•PVR/DVR/set-tops•Game Machines•Mobile Devices
•Streaming Media•VOD•PPV
•Tape•ATA Disk Arrays
•Optical Jukeboxes
•Field Editing•Studio Editing•Special Effects
•Cameras•Animation
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Drivers for Greater Entertainment Storage Requirements
• Red laser optical disks Blue laser optical disks• Current HDD capacities Higher HDD capacities• Current Flash capacities Higher Flash capacities• Current storage component costs Lower storage component costs• Current HDD sizes Proliferation of smaller drive formats• PC disk drives in PVR/DVRs Specialized AV drives in PVR/DVRs
SCSI/Fibre Channel Storage Lower cost SATA Storage for Fixed Content storage and SAS and Fibre Channel for higher performance storage
• CD/DVD Purchases Content downloads and storage• Struggle between content owners and users Workable business models for
reasonable content prices and usage• Isolated CE equipment Networked Homes and Home Media Servers using
standardized interfaces and commands• Mostly isolated computers Pervasive wired and wireless computer networks• Today's MP3 players and PDAs Advanced mobile music and personal video players
and integrated PDA/phones• Decaying analog media in hard to access vaults Digitized historical content readily
available on networks
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Drivers for Increased Content Richness
• Analog TV Digital TV• Standard Definition TV High Definition TV• 2k Film Production 4k Film Production• Film Cameras Digital Cameras• Film Projection Digital Projection• 32-bit Processors 64-bit Processors• Dial-up Connections Broadband
Connections
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Digital Content Distribution Chain, from Scott Kipp’s book “Broadband Entertainment.”
From Scott Kipp’s upcoming book on Broadband Entertainment
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Content Creation, Distribution, & Archive Market (SCSI/FC HDD, ATA HDD, & Tape)
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
TB S
hipp
edArchiving Historical Content (Tape, TBs)
Distribution & Projection (ATA, TBs)
Archiving (Tape, TBs)
Editing (SCSI & FC HDD's, TBs)
Capture & Conversion (SCSI & FC HDD's, TBs)
Archiving Historical Content (Tape, TBs) 4,530.0 13,900.0 56,600.0 230,000.0 937,000.0 3,820,000.0
Distribution & Projection (ATA, TBs) 1,420.0 4,360.0 17,800.0 72,300.0 294,000.0 1,200,000.0
Archiving (Tape, TBs) 9,060.0 27,800.0 113,000.0 461,000.0 1,870,000.0 7,630,000.0
Editing (SCSI & FC HDD's, TBs) 390.0 1,200.0 4,870.0 19,800.0 80,700.0 328,000.0
Capture & Conversion (SCSI & FC HDD's, TBs) 51.2 157.0 639.0 2,600.0 10,600.0 43,100.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Uncompressed Video Production Storage Needs (Raw DPX 10 bit log files).
Resolution Frames/sec MB/second Capacity/minute (GB)
SD 1.7 38.4 2.3
1K 3.2 76.8 4.6
HD 8.2 197 11.8
2K 12.5 300 18.0
4K 50 1.2 72.0
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Digital Content Lifecycle in Production and Distribution.
Content Stage
Frequent Changes
Frequent Accesses to Fixed Content
In-Frequent Accesses to Fixed Content
Production Non-linear editing
Production Viewing
Archiving
Distribution N/A Distribution Viewing,
PVR/DVR
DVDs, VHS, Content
Downloads
On-lineSSD
High Perf. Disk Array
In-lineCapacity Disk Array
Near-lineCapacity Disk Array
Tape
ArchiveTape
Optical Jukebox
WORM
On-lineSSD
High Perf. Disk Array
In-lineCapacity Disk Array
Near-lineCapacity Disk Array
Tape
ArchiveTape
Optical Jukebox
WORM
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Comparison of Tape and ATA Disk Storage Economics
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
$/G
B
Tape Drive + 100 Media IDE Drive Ghetto RAID
Tape Drives
Tape Media
Ghetto RAID
IDE Drives
Tape Drive + 100 Media
Sony SAIT Projection
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Examples of ATA-based Storage Systems
Quantum DX30The DX30 separates backup functions from archive functions to optimize the data protection process.
STK Bladestore product uses 3.5 inch drives on blade acting as one drive to a fibre channel output
Isilon IQ 3-Node 4.3 TB
Nexsan ATABeast Nexsan's14 TB for 7 cents a MB
R200 now offers up to 96 TB
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Professional Digital Camera
Sony Optical Camera
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Value Chain for Consumer Electronic
Devices
Storage DeviceMfg's
CE Products
Retailers &Distributors
Service Providers
End-Users
Semi's & SWComponents
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Storage Device Segmentation for Consumer Electronic Applications
CompactFlash
Flash
MemoryStick
Magnetic Hard Disk
< 1.0 Inch 1.0 Inch
Optical
CD/DVDReWritable Holographic
1.8 Inch 2.5 Inch
3.5 InchMemory
StickDuo
SmartMedia MultimediaCard
SDCard
xD PictureCard
SDExpansion
Card
MemoryStickPro
MemoryStick Duo
Pro
ExternalHDD
Blue LaserDVD
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Unit Price by Form Factor(Single Surface)
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Est
. OE
M U
nit
Pri
c
OEM P ric e - S ing le S urfa c e 3.5" HD D
OEM P ric e - S ing le S urfa c e 2.5" HD D
OEM P ric e - S ing le S urfa c e 1.8" HD D
OEM P ric e - S ing le S urfa c e 1.0" "S t o ra geEle me nt" HDDOEM P ric e - S ing le S urfa c e 1.0" HD D
OEM P ric e - S tan dard C F Flas h Me mo ryUn it P ric e
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Sample value chain markup and storage cost as % of BOM
Storage Unit Price is Large Percentage of Total BOM Cost
30% MarkupHardDisk CE Device
$50.00 $65.00
30% Markup
$91.13
Retailer
Distributor
Consumer
$84.50
30% Markup
$109.85
HDDValue
HDDValue
HDDValue
HDDValue
(1.30 X 1.30 X 1.30) = 220%
$199.99/220% = $90.90 BOM Cost
$50.00/$90.90 = HDD is 55% of BOM
MSRP $199.99
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Total DVR Market
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Ann
ual U
nit S
hipm
ents
(Mill
ion DVD Recorder PVR's
Advanced STB PVR'sStandalone PVR's
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Network PVR/DVR
Toshiba SD-H400
• ~$500
• 80 GB HDD
• DVD/DVD-R Player
• Built-in Tivo
• Home Media Upgrade allows USB connection to wired/wireless network
ReplayTV RTV4532
• ~$780
• no longer available
• 320 GB HDD
• Ethernet Connection
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Network PVR/(DVD-R) Price and Capacity(1 GB ~ 1 hour SDTV)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Pric
e ($
)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Driv
e C
apac
ity (G
B)
PriceDrive Capacity
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
AVERAGE DESKTOP DRIVE PRICES VS. TIME (Sources: Disktrend 1999 and Coughlin Associates 2003)
35
55
75
95
115
135
155
175
195
215
1H95
2H95
1H96
2H96
1H97
2H97
1H98
2H98
1H99
2H99
1H00
2H00
1H01
2H01
1H02
2H02
1H03E
2H03E
1H04E
2H04E
1H05E
2H05E
1H06E
2H06E
Pric
e ($
)
Ave. Desktop Price
3 Month Moving Average
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Mobile Storage Hierarchy
RAM/ROM
FlashMemory (removable/non-removable)
Micro or Pico HDDMass Storage (removable or embedded)
$0.25/MB
20 ns
$0.20/MB
60 ms
$0.03/MB
12 ms
Cost/Speed
Tiny Optical ROM/WORM(removable)
$0.04/MB
10 ms
Volatile Storage
Non-VolatileStorage
Capacity
Small Tape or FloppyMass Storage (removable)
$0.01/MB
120 sec
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Disk Drives in Mobile Applications
• Disk drives going into more and more consumer applications– 1.8 inch, 1 inch and possibly 0.8 or 0.7 inch
drives in mobile devices such as MP3 players, PVP, cameras and mobile phones
– PVR/DVR market, maybe with DVD-R and networking set to take off
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Comparison of Mobile Storage Devices
$65-10° to +65° C
350 G23 dB0.6 W1.5 GB27 mm SE
$120+5° to +55° C
200 G23 dB1.3 W10 GB48 mm HDD
$11-40° to +85° C
2000 GNA24 mW64 MBFlash
OEM Cost Thermal Characteristics (Operating Temp)
Shock Tolerance (Operating)
Acoustical Charisteristics
Power (Peak)
CapacityStorage Type
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Medium Volume and Density
106
105
104
103
Vol
um
e (m
m3 )
C D , D VD ,B l ue Laser D VD
MediaAlone
Media inDrive/Socket
MicroDrive ®
Memory Cards
C D , D VD ,B l ue Laser D VD
MicroDrive ®MemoryCards Ideal
size
1
10- 1
10- 2
10- 3Den
sity
(M
B/m
m3 )
Blue Laser DVD
MediaAlone
Media inDrive/Socket
MicroDrive ®Memory
Cards
MicroDrive ®
MemoryCards
10- 4
10
CD
DVD
CD
Blue Laser DVD
Holographic
DVD
Holographici n convent i onal dr i ve
• Memory Card data based on 128MB card.• Memory Cards are: SD Memory Card, Compact Flash, SmartMedia, Memory Stick• MicroDrive® data based on 1GB drive.
MicroDrive® is a trademark of IBM.
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Chart of Projections of HDD Form Factor Units vs. CE Applications.
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Uni
t Shi
pmen
ts (M
illio
n
</= 1.0 Inch1.8 Inch2.5 Inch3.5 Inch
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Form Factor Projections
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Uni
ts (i
n th
ousa
nds)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1 inch1.8 inch2.5 inch3.5 inch
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Conclusions• Rich media markets and CE are big drivers of storage growth• HDD areal density growth slowed and ASPs stabilized means
companies have time and money to develop HDDs tuned to niche application markets
• Drive unit growth is increasing but revenues will not increase at the same rate due to large number of price sensitive applications.
• Tape cartridge capacity grows and point of parity in $/GB for HDDs vs. tape is put off to the future
• We are likely to see multiple forms of digital storage in all segments of the content value chain driven by trade-offs between price and performance in the storage hierarchy.
• Drives moving to smaller form factors, especially in CE applications, although Dense Datacenter Storage may also drive smaller form factor drives.
• Disk drives for mobile applications are at a critical point since high capacity is needed but it must prove its robustness and overallreliability to the mobile marketplace. Could be a very big market—think cell phones
Copyright 2004, Coughlin Associates
Time for the next wave of storage!