tom kimbis - gw solar symposium 2012

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© 2012 SEIA © 2012 SEIA The Dynamic and Growing U.S. Solar Market Thomas P. Kimbis Vice President Solar Energy Industries Association

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Page 1: Tom Kimbis - GW Solar Symposium 2012

© 2012 SEIA © 2012 SEIA

The Dynamic and Growing U.S. Solar Market

Thomas P. Kimbis Vice President

Solar Energy Industries Association

Page 2: Tom Kimbis - GW Solar Symposium 2012

© 2012 SEIA

About SEIA • Founded in 1974 • U.S. National Trade Association for Solar Energy

• 1,000+ member companies from around the world • Members from across 50 states • Largest companies in the world as well as small installers

• Our Mission: Build a strong solar industry to power America • Our Goal: 10 gigawatts (GW) of annual installed solar capacity in

the U.S. by 2015

Page 3: Tom Kimbis - GW Solar Symposium 2012

© 2012 SEIA

Solar in America: Strong and Getting Stronger

• 100,000 American workers in solar – double the number in 2009 – at 5,600 companies across the country

• One of the fastest growing sectors of the U.S. economy – with 109% growth in PV installations in 2011.

• More than 4,460 MW of installed solar electric capacity

Page 4: Tom Kimbis - GW Solar Symposium 2012

© 2012 SEIA

Industry Overview • The value of solar installations grew to $8.4 billion in 2011 • Solar employment more than doubled from 2009 to 2011,

topping 100,000 American workers

SEIA/GTM Research U.S. Solar Market Insight: Year In Review

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20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

U.S. Solar Workforce

SEIA Estimate The Solar Foundation

$-

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

$7.0

$8.0

$9.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Billi

ons

($)

Value of PV Installations

SEIA Estimate SEIA/GTM Research

Page 5: Tom Kimbis - GW Solar Symposium 2012

© 2012 SEIA

U.S. Solar Business Locations in 2011

Page 6: Tom Kimbis - GW Solar Symposium 2012

© 2012 SEIA

What the Future Holds– Looking Ahead

• In 2012, we’ll see near-term challenges for the industry, especially for manufacturers

• Since the beginning of 2010, 52 new U.S. solar manufacturing facilities have begun operations across America

• By 2014, the U.S. is projected to become one of the world’s largest solar markets, alongside China and possibly Japan

Page 7: Tom Kimbis - GW Solar Symposium 2012

© 2012 SEIA

Solar Market Insight: Year in Review 2011

• Detailed data on markets in top 23 states available in full report.

• Free executive summary provides national aggregate data on installations, pricing, manufacturing and demand forecasts.

• Full report for sale includes detailed market segment and state data.

Page 8: Tom Kimbis - GW Solar Symposium 2012

© 2012 SEIA

U.S. Solar Industry Continues Strong Growth • PV demand grew 109% in 2011

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Inst

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U.S. PV Installations

Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Source: SEIA/GTM Research Solar Market Insight, "2011 Year In Review"

Page 9: Tom Kimbis - GW Solar Symposium 2012

© 2012 SEIA

PV System Prices Falling Dramatically

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$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

$/W

Average Installed Price of PV

LBNL "Tracking the Sun IV" SEIA/GTM ResearchSource: SEIA/GTM Research Solar Market Insight, "2011 Year In Review"

Page 10: Tom Kimbis - GW Solar Symposium 2012

© 2012 SEIA

U.S. to Lead in CSP • California, Arizona and Nevada are leading states • The current CSP pipeline contains over 5,000 MW of projects

with signed PPAs

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200

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Meg

awat

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wac

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CSP & CPV Forecast

Installations ForecastSource: SEIA/GTM Research Solar Market Insight, "2011 Year In Review"

Page 11: Tom Kimbis - GW Solar Symposium 2012

© 2012 SEIA

U.S. PV Demand Forecast to Grow 53% in 2012 to Over 2.8 GW

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Meg

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C)

U.S. PV Installations Forecast

Annual Installations Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Projected InstallationsSource: SEIA/GTM Research Solar Market Insight, "2011 Year In Review"

Page 12: Tom Kimbis - GW Solar Symposium 2012

© 2012 SEIA

Status of Market Diversity

California 29%

New Jersey 17%

Next Five States 34%

Rest of U.S. 20%

2011 PV Installations by Major Market State 2011 Annual Installations

2011 Ranking

California

542.2 1

New Jersey

313.3 2

Arizona

273.2 3

New Mexico

115.8 4

Colorado

90.8 5

Pennsylvania

87.9 6

New York

59.9 7

North Carolina

54.8 8

Texas

47.1 9

Nevada

43.6 10

Page 13: Tom Kimbis - GW Solar Symposium 2012

© 2012 SEIA

SEIA’s 10 GW Goal Within Reach

• SEIA’s goal of 10 GW annually by 2015 is achievable, but additional policies are needed, including: – Policies to support financing of solar projects, such

as the Section 1603 Treasury Program – Long-term power purchase authority for federal

agencies – Development of alternative financing mechanisms – Removal of local barriers to solar deployment

Page 14: Tom Kimbis - GW Solar Symposium 2012

© 2012 SEIA

PV Manufacturing Across the U.S.

Page 15: Tom Kimbis - GW Solar Symposium 2012

© 2012 SEIA

Growing Importance of U.S. Solar Market

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

U.S

. Sha

re o

f Glo

bal P

V In

stal

latio

ns

Annu

al In

stal

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ns (M

Wdc

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U.S. PV Installations and Global Market Share

U.S. PV Installations U.S. Global Market ShareSource: SEIA/GTM Research Solar Market Insight, "2011 Year In Review"

Page 16: Tom Kimbis - GW Solar Symposium 2012

© 2012 SEIA

International PV Forecast

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1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

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8,000

9,000

10,000

2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Inst

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Wdc

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Annual Installed PV Capacity Projections

Germany Italy China U.S.Source: SEIA/GTM Research

Page 17: Tom Kimbis - GW Solar Symposium 2012

© 2012 SEIA

SEIA Membership • SEIA is working to build a strong solar industry across

America • SEIA members receive the following benefits:

– Registration and exhibiting discounts at SEIA conferences and tradeshows

– Free registration for member webinars each month – Exclusive access to the SEIA solar tax manual – A free, optional listing in the SEIA member directory – Discounts on industry reports – Job postings – Members-only access to the Small Business Resource

Center, a set of tools to help small businesses grow • To join, visit: http://www.seia.org/cs/join_seia. • For more information, email [email protected].

Page 18: Tom Kimbis - GW Solar Symposium 2012

© 2012 SEIA

Thank You

Thomas P. Kimbis [email protected]