Tools for Climate Policy Planning

Charles Heaps, Ph.D.Stockholm Environment Institute

SEI-U.S. Center11 Curtis Avenue, SomervilleMA, 02144, USAwww.sei-us.org and www.sei.se

11/20/2007

• Part 1: Some new challenges for energy policy makers, planners and analysts.

• Part 2: Some SEI initiatives that can help to begin to address these challenges:– LEAP: a tool for energy policy and climate mitigation

analysis.– WEAP: a tool for water resource planning and

assessing climate adaptation responses at the river basin scale.

– COMMEND: an online community to help build capacity among developing country energy planners.

– A new initiative to develop southern-lead climate mitigation assessments.

Issue 1: Mitigation will be vital in the developing world.

• While mitigation must be lead by the North, significant mitigation must also happen in the South (irrespective of who pays for it).

• According to the WEO Reference scenarios, in the next 30 years, ¾ of growth in global primary energy needs will be in the developing world.

• But data and institutional capacity are in short supply and uncertainties over future development pathways are large, making planning and analysis difficult.

Issue 2: Mitigation will need to address lifestyle questions.

• Climate mitigation will require addressing lifestyle questions in addition to using new technologies.

• New approaches to setting energy policy will be required: technocratic approaches will not be sufficient.

• Wider stakeholder involvement is needed: a democratization of energy policy making.

• Models can help inform us about the costs and potential of alternatives, but cannot tell us the right balance between investing in new technologies and making lifestyle choices: these are inherently normative questions.

Traditional Approaches Necessary but not Sufficient

• Lack of data and institutional capacity makes use of complex models difficult.

• Price-based models are hard to apply in the long-run, especially in developing countries due to huge uncertainties (development pathways, energy prices, policy responses to climate and energy security concerns) and lack of time-series data.

• End-use/engineering based models may be more appropriate for examining long-term trends and for putting development and lifestyle issues at the forefront of energy planning.

• Least-cost “optimal” planning may not be a rational approach for developing countries where there are large downside risks due to uncertainty. “Robust” planning is a better paradigm: implying the need for scenario and sensitivity analysis.

Implications for PlanningNew approaches are needed that:– Address both development and climate mitigation

in energy planning, e.g. using an IPAT approach (Impact = Population x Activity x Technology)

– Are transparent and encourage participation from a broader set of stakeholders.

– Take a long-range scenarios-based perspective that describes in physical terms how societies can be transformed to meet the challenges.

Part 2• Four SEI initiatives that are beginning to

address these challenges:– LEAP: a software tool for energy policy and climate

mitigation analysis.– WEAP: a software tool for integrated freshwater

resource planning and climate adaptation.– COMMEND: an online community to help build

capacity among developing country energy planners.

– A new initiative to develop southern-lead climate mitigation assessments.

Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System

Windows-based integrated energy-environment, scenario-based modeling system, developed by SEI.

IPAT approach: encourages a needs-based/development perspective within energy planning. Easy-to-use but powerful enough to meet the needs of planners. Transparent: based on relatively simple energy and emissions accounting approaches: so

useful tool for capacity building. Widely applied in > 100 countries. De facto standard for developing country parties

conducing mitigation assessments for the UNFCCC. Scope: demand, supply, resources, environmental loadings (emissions), cost-benefit analysis,

non-energy sector emissions. Works well with other models: e.g. through links to spreadsheets. Time-Frame: medium to long-term, annual time-step, unlimited number of years. Low initial data requirements. Many aspects optional.

Local, national &regional applicability.

Available at no charge to developing country organizations.

Download from: www.energycommunity.org

Structure

• A six year initiative to build capacity and foster a community among analysts working on climate mitigation, energy and sustainability issues.

• Managed by SEI in partnership with regional partners in Africa, Europe and Latin America.

• Funded by Govt. of Netherlands.• Open to all at no charge.• Activities:

– Annual regional training workshops in Asia, Latin America, and Africa.

– Online library– Software comparisons– Development, maintenance and technical

support for LEAP.– Semi-annual newsletter (reCOMMEND)

• > 3000 members in > 160 countries.• www.energycommunity.org

www.energycommunity.org

Scenarios Initiative• SEI is leading a new initiative to develop climate mitigation scenarios.• Scenarios will be developed in LEAP at the national level by members of

the COMMEND community with support from SEI.• Chance for southern analysts to start setting out their own visions for how

to meet the climate challenge.• Non-governmental initiative. Initially intended only to prompt and inform

dialogue.• Major co-benefit: SEI is developing public-domain national baseline data

sets with historical and baseline projections of energy and GHG emissions.

• These data sets will be available for free to LEAP users as a useful starting point for national GHG mitigation assessments.

• First data sets available in 2nd quarter 2008 (available via COMMEND web site).

For more information:

www.energycommunity.org and

leap@sei-us.org

Selected LEAP Applications• Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Studies: 85 countries have selected LEAP for

use in their next National Communications to the UNFCCC. • Lawrence Berkeley Nat Labs: A global end-use oriented energy model.• Energy and Carbon Scenarios: Chinese Energy Research Institute (ERI)

and LBNL.• USA: State level climate action strategies in California, Washington,

Oregon and Rhode Island,.• Transport Energy Use and Emissions: Various U.S. transportation NGOs

(UCS, ACEEE, SEI) and seven Asian Cities (AIT).• APERC Energy Outlook: Energy forecasts for each APEC economy.• East Asia Energy Futures Project: Study of energy security issues in East

Asian countries including the Koreas, China, Mongolia, Russia, Japan (lead by Nautilus Institute).

• Integrated Resource Planning: Brazil, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Ghana, South Africa.

• Integrated Environmental Strategies: U.S. EPA assists developing countries in addressing both local environmental concerns and associated global greenhouse gas emissions.

• City Level Energy Strategies: South Africa.• Sulfur Abatement Scenarios for China: Chinese EPA/UNEP.