1  

October 22, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

HOLIDAY 2015  

Top 20 Hottest toys… and just how much They are going to cost ya!

D E B O R A H W E I N S W I G E x e c u t i v e D i r e c t o r – H e a d o f G l o b a l R e t a i l & T e c h n o l o g y F u n g B u s i n e s s I n t e l l i g e n c e C e n t r e d e b o r a h w e i n s w i g @ f u n g 1 9 3 7 . c o m U S : 6 4 6 . 8 3 9 . 7 0 1 7 H K : 8 5 2 . 6 1 1 9 . 1 7 7 9 C N : 8 6 . 1 8 6 . 1 4 2 0 . 3 0 1 6

• FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology’s  price  tracking  on  top  20  hottest  toys  for  this  holiday  season  

• The  average  price  of  our  toy  basket  is  nearly  34%  higher  than  last  year  

• Last  week’s  price  statistics  (as  of  Oct.  22)  

ü Minimum:  $16.86  (Hasbro’s  Pie  Face  Game)  

ü Maximum:  $188.24  (Mattel  Barbie  Dream  House)  

ü Average:  $64.49  

ü Median:  $51.02  

 

 

2  

October 22, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

HOLIDAY 2015

Top 20 Hottest toys… and just how much They are going to cost ya!  This   holiday   season,   FBIC   Global   Retail   &   Technology   will   be  tracking  a   larger   list  of  toys  than  we  did   last  year—20  versus  12—on  a  weekly  basis.  Here  are  price  statistics  from  Oct.  22,  which  we  will  update  each  week:  

• Minimum:  $16.86  (Hasbro’s  Pie  Face  Game)  

• Maximum:  $188.24  (Mattel  Barbie  Dream  House)  

• Average:  $64.49  

• Median:  $51.02  

We  note  that  the  average  price  of  our  basket  is  nearly  34%  higher  than  last  year.  

The   graph   below   contains   the   price   distribution   of   the   average  prices  of  this  year’s  toys.  

Figure  1.  Distribution  of  Average  Toy  Prices  in  the  FBIC  Holiday  2015  Basket  (USD)  

 Source:  Retailers’  websites/FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology  

The  graph  below  shows  the  average  price  of  toys   in  our  basket  by  retailer.   For   Target,   we   have   calculated   our   averages   with   and  without  the  retailer’s  REDcard  credit  or  debit  card,  which  provides  shoppers   a   5%   discount.   (The   company   said   that   REDcard  penetration  reached  22.1%  in  the  second  quarter  of  2015.)    

 

   

 

$0  

$50  

$100  

$150  

$200   Price  Median  ($51.02)  Average  ($64.49)  

1. Bright  Beats  Smart  Touch  Playspace  

2. Fisher  Price  Bright  Beats  Dance  &  Move  Beatbo  

3. Imaginext  Ultra  T-­‐rex  

4. Star  Wars  Bladebuilders  Jedi  Master  Lightsaber    

5. Furreal  Friends  Starlily,  My  Magical  Unicorn  

6. Disney  Frozen  Sing-­‐a-­‐long  Elsa  Doll  

7. Hulk  Smash  RC  Vehicle  by  Jakks  Pacific    

8. Paw  Patrol  -­‐  Paw  Patroller    

9. LEGO  Star  Wars  75097  Advent  Calendar  Developmental  Building  Kit  

10. Playskool  Sesame  Street  Play  All  Day  Elmo  

11. Barbie  Saddle  N'  Ride  Horse  

12. Fisher-­‐Price  Little  People  Big  Animal  Zoo  

13. N-­‐Strike  Mega  Series  RotoFury  Blaster  

14. LEGO  Marvel  Superheroes  76031  The  Hulk  Buster  Smash  Figures  Set  

15. Hot  Wheels  Ultimate  Garage    

16. Playmation  Marvel  Avengers  Starter  Pack  Repulsor  

17. Meccano  MeccaNoid  G15  

18. Mattel  Barbie  Dream  House  

19. Candy  Craft  Chocolate  Pen  

20. Pie  Face  Game2  

 

 

3  

October 22, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

HOLIDAY 2015 Figure  2.  Average  Toy  Prices  of  FBIC  Holiday  2015  Basket,  by  Retailer  (USD)  

 

Source:  Retailers’  websites/FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology  

Figure  3.  FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology  Holiday  2015  Toy  Price  Tracker:  Oct.  22,  2015  

Rank    Holiday  2015  Toys   Toy  R  US   Amazon   Target   Kmart   Walmart   Jet.com  

1   Bright  Beats  Smart  Touch  Playspace   $53.99   $49.97   $59.99   $56.47   $49.97   $56.47  

2   Fisher  Price  Bright  Beats  Dance  &  Move  Beatbo   $36.99   $44.50   $34.99   $37.65   $34.73   $37.65  

3   Imaginext  Ultra  T-­‐rex   $79.99   $79.00   $99.99   $94.12   $79.00    4   Star  Wars  Bladebuilders  Jedi  Master  Lightsaber     $43.99   $58.99   $49.99   $54.99   $43.99    5   Furreal  Friends  Starlily,  My  Magical  Unicorn   $97.99   $95.99   $95.99   $96.36   $95.99    6   Disney  Frozen  Sing-­‐a-­‐long  Elsa  Doll   $39.99   $31.25   $39.99   $38.73   $31.25    7   Hulk  Smash  RC  Vehicle  by  Jakks  Pacific     $55.99   $55.99   $67.99   $69.99   $55.99   $57.42  

8   Paw  Patrol  -­‐  Paw  Patroller     $52.99   $48.99   $59.99   $64.99   $48.99    

9   LEGO  Star  Wars  75097  Advent  Calendar  Developmental  Building  Kit   $42.99   $39.91   $39.99   $39.91   $39.91    

10   Playskool  Sesame  Street  Play  All  Day  Elmo   $48.99   $48.99   $48.99   $59.99   $49.98   $52.94  

11   Barbie  Saddle  N'  Ride  Horse   $42.99   $38.88   $39.99   $54.99   $38.88   $35.99  

12   Fisher-­‐Price  Little  People  Big  Animal  Zoo   $39.99   $29.99   $39.99   $37.65   $29.99   $37.65  

13   N-­‐Strike  Mega  Series  RotoFury  Blaster   $27.99   $27.99   $34.99   $39.99   $27.99   $29.11  

14   LEGO  Marvel  Superheroes  76031  The  Hulk  Buster  Smash  Figures  Set   $29.99   $29.84   $29.99   $29.99   $29.84    

15   Hot  Wheels  Ultimate  Garage     $84.99   $84.99   $87.99   $94.12   $88.00   $88.44  

16   Playmation  Marvel  Avengers  Starter  Pack  Repulsor   $114.99   $114.25   $114.99   $119.99   $114.25    17   Meccano  MeccaNoid  G15   $159.99   $148.95   $179.99   $159.99   $148.95   $148.21  

18   Mattel  Barbie  Dream  House   $179.99   $167.00   $176.99   $188.24   $167.00   $163.99  

19   Candy  Craft  Chocolate  Pen   $29.99   $29.99   $29.99   $24.92   $24.93    20   Pie  Face  Game   $17.99   $16.88   $19.99   $16.86   $16.88    

Source:  Retailers’  websites/FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology  

$60.83   $62.12   $64.14   $64.26   $67.64   $69.00   $70.79  

Walm

art  

Amazon  

Toys    "R"  U

s  

Target  w/    

REDcard  

Target  w/o    

REDcard  

Kmart  

Jet.com  

1

2Fisher Price Bright Beats Dance & Move Beatbo

$34.73-$44.50

It’s October 22, and the most wonderful time of the year is just getting started. A big part of the magic of the holiday season is seeing kids’ eyes light up when they open their presents and find a favorite toy from their wish list inside. What are kids asking for this year? Some of the most desired gifts are tactile, electronic, interactive and educational but fun. We’ve taken a look at the top toy lists of six major retailers—Toys “R” Us, Amazon, Target, Kmart, Walmart and Jet.com—and looked at recent events with major toy companies, including Mattel and LEGO, to gain some shopping insights for the season to share with you. These are the toys we think will be hot sellers this season. Most of our toy picks are for kids ages 12 and under because, truthfully, after age 12, the only thing kids really want is an iPhone 6s.

3Bright BeaTs Smart Touch Playspace

$49.97-$59.99

$79-$99.99Imaginext Ultra T-rex

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HOLIDAY 2015 OCTOBER 22, 2015

Top 20 Toys List

Star Wars Bladebuilders Jedi Master Lightsaber

$43.99-$58.99

4

9LEGO Star Wars 75097 Advent Calendar Developmental Building Kit

$39.91-$42.99

7Hulk Smash RC Vehicle by Jakks Pacific

$55.99-$69.99

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HOLIDAY 2015 OCTOBER 22, 2015

Top 20 Toys List

5Furreal Friends Starlily, My Magical Unicorn

$95.99-$97.99

6Disney Frozen Sing-a-long Elsa Doll

$31.25-$39.99

8Paw Patrol - Paw Patroller

$48.99-$64.99

10 Playskool Sesame Street Play All Day Elmo

Barbie Saddle N’ Ride Horse

$35.99-$54.99

11 12$29.99-$39.99Fisher-Price Little People Big Animal Zoo

$48.99-$59.99

14LEGO Marvel Superheroes 76031 The Hulk Buster Smash Figures Set

$29.84-$29.99

18Mattel Barbie Dream House

$163.99-$188.24

13

OCTOBER 22, 2015

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HOLIDAY 2015

Top 20 Toys List

15Hot Wheels Ultimate Garage

$84.99-$94.12

17Meccano MeccaNoid G15

$148.21-$179.99

16Playmation Marvel Avengers Starter Pack Repulsor

$114.25-$119.99

19Candy Craft Chocolate Pen

20Pie Face Game$16.86-$19.99

N-Strike Mega Series RotoFury Blaster

$27.99-$39.99

$24.92-$29.99

 

7  

October 22, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

HOLIDAY 2015 APPENDIX:  2014  Holiday  Toy  Basket  

Last  holiday  season,  we  created  a   list  of  the  top  12  holiday  toys,  whose  prices  we  tracked  from  late  November  through  late  December.  In  the  list  from  last  year  (below),  we  have  highlighted  the  toys  (or  the  updated  versions  of  them)  that  are  on  this  year’s  list.  

Figure  3.  FBIC  Holiday  2014  Basket:  Toy  Prices  at  Selected  Retailers  (USD)  

  Amazon   Kmart   Toys  “R”  Us   Target   Walmart   Avg.  

Disney  Frozen  Snow  Glow  Elsa  Singing  Doll   $54.94   $34.99   $34.99   $29.99   $28.88   $36.76  

Teenage  Mutant  Ninja  Turtles  Battle  Shell  Leonardo  11"  Action  Figure  

$17.99   $21.99   $17.99   $19.99   $17.99   $19.19  

Doc  McStuffins  Get  Better  Talking  Mobile  Cart   $45.40   $49.99   $44.99   $44.99   $44.97   $46.07  

LeapFrog  LeapTV  Active  Video  Game  System   $149.00   $149.99   $149.99   $149.99   $149.00   $149.59  

VTech  Kidizoom  Smartwatch   $49.99   $49.90   $49.99   $49.99   $49.96   $49.97  

Zoomer  Dino   $79.88   $89.99   $79.99   $79.99   $79.88   $81.95  

Simon  Swipe  Game   $14.76   $14.99   $16.99      $14.79   $14.76   $15.26  

LEGO  Minecraft:  The  Village   $31.99   $29.99   $39.99   $31.99   $31.99   $33.19  

Nerf  Zombie  Strike  SlingFire  Blaster   $31.99   $22.99   $24.99   $19.99   $24.88   $24.97  

Transformers  Age  of  Extinction  Voyager  Class  Evasion  Mode  Optimus  Prime  Figure  

$23.99   $19.99   $23.99   $18.99   $23.99   $22.19  

FurReal  Friends  Get  Up  &  GoGo  My  Walkin’  Pup  Pet  

$34.99   $54.99   $49.99   $49.99   $49.00   $47.79  

Hot  Wheels  Street  Hawk  Remote  Control  Flying  Car  

$49.92   $49.99   $49.99   $49.99   $49.92   $49.96  

Average   $48.74   $49.15   $48.66   $46.72   $47.10   $48.07  

Minimum   $14.76    

Maximum   $149.99  

Median   $42.48  

Source:  Retailers’  websites/FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology    

Last  year,  we  calculated  the  following  statistics  based  on  toy  pricing  during  the  first  week  we  collected  data  (the  week  of  November  24,  2014):  

• Minimum:  $14.76  (Simon  Swipe  Game)  

• Maximum:  $149.99  (LeapFrog  LeapTV  Active  Video  Game  System)  

• Median:  $42.48  

• Average:  $48.07  

Below  is  a  graph  of  the  distribution  of  average  toy  prices  during  the  first  week  of  our  survey.  Half  of  the  toys  were  priced  below  the  respective  median  and  average,  which  is  skewed  by  the  two  most  expensive  toys  (the  Zoomer  Dino,  at  an  average  of  $81.95,  and  the  LeapFrog  LeapTV  Active  Video  Game  System,  at  an  average  of  $149.59).  Excluding  those  two  outliers,  the  average  toy  price  in  last  year’s  basket  was  $34.53.  

   

 

8  

October 22, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

HOLIDAY 2015 Figure  4.  Distribution  of  Average  Toy  Prices  in  the  FBIC  Holiday  2014  Basket  (USD)    

 

Source:  Retailers’  websites/FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology  

 

The  graph  below  tracks  the  average  price  for  our  toy  list  during  the  survey  period  last  year.  

Figure  5.  Average  Toy  Prices  in  the  FBIC  Holiday  2014  Toy  Basket,  by  Week  (USD)  

 

Source:  Retailers’  websites/FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology  

In  the  graph,  we  see  that  the  average  price  of  the  toys  on  our  list  increased  by  nearly  5%  from  mid-­‐November  to  mid-­‐December  last  year,  demonstrating  the  benefits  of  starting  one’s  holiday  shopping  early.  

   

$0  

$20  

$40  

$60  

$80  

$100  

$120  

$140  

$160  

Toys   Median  ($42.48)  

Average  ($48.07)  

$48.07  

$49.48  

$50.44  

$45  

$46  

$47  

$48  

$49  

$50  

$51  

11/17/2014   11/24/2014   12/15/2014  

 

9  

October 22, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

HOLIDAY 2015  

   

Deborah  Weinswig,  CPA  Executive  Director—Head  of  Global  Retail  &  Technology  Fung  Business  Intelligence  Centre  New  York:  917.655.6790    Hong  Kong:  852.6119.1779  deborahweinswig@fung1937.com    Filippo  Battaini  filippobattaini@fung1937.com  

Marie  Driscoll,  CFA  mariedriscoll@fung1937.com  

John  Harmon,  CFA  johnharmon@fung1937.com  

Aragorn  Ho  aragornho@fung1937.com  

John  Mercer  johnmercer@fung1937.com  

Shoshana  Pollack  Shoshanapollack@fung1937.com    

Kiril  Popov  kirilpopov@fung1937.com  

Jing  Wang    jingwang@fung1937.com  

Steven  Winnick  stevenwinnick@fung1937.com  

 HONG  KONG:  10th  Floor,  LiFung  Tower  888  Cheung  Sha  Wan  Road,  Kowloon  Hong  Kong  Tel:  852  2300  2470    LONDON:  242-­‐246  Marylebone  Road  London,  NW1  6JQ  United  Kingdom  Tel:    44  (0)20  7616  8988    

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