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are needed to see this picture.Top: Flood PotentialLeft-Top: 3 hourly rainfallLeft-bottom: Accumulated rainfall

NASA TRMM Products

Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009

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The impact of microphysics on precipitation associated with Typhoon Morakot 2009

Land/River changeafter Typhoon

Landslide/potential Landslide regions

20 and 48 haccumulatedrainfall

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風災前

Typhoon Morakot (2009)

災前農林航測所影像 災後福衛二號衛星影像 (2009 年 )after before

Over all in Taiwan: more than 25,000 persons were evacuated before heavy rainfall associated with TY Morakot. However, the life losses close to 700.

NASA Unified (Physics) WRF

Blue Boxes: NASA Physical Packages

Land Information System (LIS)

Land Surface Model

Goddard Microphysical

Packages

Goddard Radiative

Transfer Packages

Cloud Optical

Properties

Aerosol Indirect

Effect

Cloud/Aerosol

Direct Effect

Urban Heat

Island Effect

Sfc FluxesPrecipitation

Radiation

Cloud-Mesoscale

Dyanmics (Circulation)

Thermodynamic (Stability )

GOCART

WRF-Chem

Rain Fall

Asimilation

Initial Condiiton

from GEOS5

for NASA Field

Campaigns

qg qgqs

qs

3

Climatologically, 40-dBZ penetrations above 10 km are rare even over land

(Zipser et al. 2006)

Lang et al. (2007): 3ice-graupelWRF3.1

Lang et al. (2009): 3ice-graupelGoddard WRF3.1

PIs: C. Peters-Lidard, M. Chin, W.-K. Tao

W.-K. Tao

C. Peters-Lidard

M. Chin

391x322, 475x427, and 538x43918, 6 and 2 km

61 vertical layers

Initial condition: NCEP GFS 10 global analysis

72 h integration starting at 00Z August 7 - 00Z August 10 2009

Physics:

• Cu parameterization: Grell-Devenyi scheme (for the outer grid only)

• Cloud microphysics:

Goddard microphysics 3ice-Graupel

• Radiation:

Shortwave: New Goddard

Longwave: New Goddard

• PBL parameterization:

Mellor-Yamada-Janjic TKE scheme

• Surface Layer:

Monin-Obukhov (Janic)

• Land Surface Model: Noah land-surface

1 Goddard 3Ice-Hail (new Evap, Li et al. 2009) 2 Goddard 3ice-graupel (Lang et al. 2007) 3 Goddard 3ice-graupel (Lang et al. 2009) 4 Goddard Warm only

4Red: Not in NCAR WRF 3.1 yet

Best Track from JMA at every 3 hours

Best Track for Typhoon Morakot (2009)

WRF simulated sea level pressure (mb) & wind at 900 mb level

5

Grid Resolution Maximum Height1 km 3610 m3 km 3255 m6 km 2885 m9 km 2695 m

WRF (2km) simulated hourly (right) and accumulated (left) rainfall & wind at 900 mb level

Observed 20 h accumulated rainfall

Terrain height (m)

Maximum Terrain HeightIn different model resolution

6

20h accumulated precipitation plot at 12Z 8/8 2009, local time 20Z 8/8

3ice-hail with reduced ERN

3ice-graupel (Lang et al. 2007) 3ice-graupel (Lang et al. 2009)

warm rain only

7

20h accumulated precipitation plot at 12Z 8/8 2009, local time 20Z 8/8

3ice-hail with reduced ERN

3ice-graupel (Lang et al. 2007) 3ice-graupel (Lang et al. 2009)

warm rain only

8

48h accumulated precipitation (mm) from 00Z 8/7 to 00Z 8/9, 2009(local time: 08Z 8/7 to 08Z 8/9, 2009)

3ice-hail with reduced ERN

3ice-graupel (Lang et al.2007) 3ice-graupel (Lang et al. 2009)

warm rain only

9

72h accumulated precipitation (mm) from 00Z 8/7 to 00Z 8/10, 2009(local time: 08Z 8/7 to 08Z 8/10, 2009)

3ice-hail with reduced ERN

3ice-graupel (Lang et al. 2007) 3ice-graupel (Lang et al. 2009)

warm rain only

10

scheme max. precip.

3ice-h redu. ERN 3307 mm

3ice-g original 3345 mm

3ice-g improved 2942 mm

warm rain only 2000 mm

Obs. 2434 mm

scheme max. precip.

3ice-h redu. ERN 2867 mm

3ice-g original 2856 mm

3ice-g improved 2396 mm

warm rain only 1589 mm

Obs. 2143 mm

48h 72h

Detailed comparison with observation (CFADs, rainfall analysis/sub-domains)

Water budget calculation/analysis

Trajectory and tracer calculations/analysis

Sensitivity tests on model resolutions, microphysics and PBL

Ensemble forecasts/simulations (Initial conditions, and microphysics)11

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Tracer/Trajectory analysis dt=2 min, dx=1.67 km

Morakot (09)Ike (08)Choiwan (09)

Yushan station3845 m

432 rainfall stations

LST=UTC+8

>400mm

>1000mm

>600mm

Typhoon Morakot 24 hours accumulate rainfall

小林村 9-19鄰

往那瑪夏鄉

楠峰橋

底圖資料取自：農委會林務局農林航測所

獻肚山

>100 houses

小林村災害前後衛星影像

小林村災前災後影像初步分析得知，位於楠梓仙溪 (旗山溪 )左岸及右岸之山坡地區崩塌，左岸土砂掩埋聚落並衝至右岸堆積，推測可能阻斷楠梓仙溪形成堰塞湖，並已潰決造成山洪暴發影響下游地區。

災前農林航測所影像災後福衛二號衛星影像 (2009 年 )

BeforeAfter

3.2km

Hourly rainfall distribution in Taiwan during Typhoon Morakot at 00LST (left) and 18LST (right), 8 August, 2009.

Rainfall at SD(2,4)Rainfall at SD(3,3)

~20

Rainfall at SD(2,4)Rainfall at SD(3,3)

Normal (mean)Normal (mean)Above normalLarger 1/3

Above normalLarger 1/3

>10>35

~40

~50

>20 >40

SD(3,3) SD(2,4)

CWB Rainfall forecast for TY Morakot (2009)

~500mm

~200mm

Forecast at 6 Aug, 1600LST

smaller rainfall ~600mm

accumulate

hourly

Rainfall at a station in NE TaiwanSatellite imagery of Tropical Cyclone Prama (2009)

MelorPrama

CWB Rainfall forecast for TC Prama (2009)

~1200mm

~500mm

Offiicial Forecast at 4 Oct, 0700LST

Smaller rainfall

Observation 4-7 Oct

Climatology mean rainfall rate