Top Reasons Your Mobile Game Will (Likely) Fail (and What to Do About It)

Chris Olson/Ethan EinhornEx-COO, SEGA Networks/Director of Marketing, Sidekick VR

Caveats/Assumptions

ME

YOU

We assume a “good” game is being made.

It is fun with enough production values to attract and sustain an audience.

For the purposes of this talk, “failure” equates to not being able to monetize robustly enough to justify significant UA spend.

Most of these items pertain to F2P, though certainly there is some application for any game.

State of the Market

YOU

23% of your players will abandon after one use.

Cost-per-install rates can be as high as $10-$12.(Gamasutra article)

85% of smartphone users’ time is spent in apps, but only 4-5 apps.

* Forrester Research

Stagnation has hit. Many Top Hits have been there for years.

Hits fall into only four genresCasino: 28Builder: 25Match 3/Puzzle: 19CCG/RPG :12Other: 16(based on 07/08/16 App Store Top Grossing Chart)

The 3 Most Common Mistakes

Not Listening to Players

No Updates

No Soft Launch

Cheer SilenceLoseWin Boo

1.No Soft Launch or

Player Testing

Who is the game made for? Test Assumptions

•Can be done easily via FB purchased ads.• Easy to do cheap

user/focus testing.• Test your UI, too!

Test UA

• Test marketing creative early. • Find Initial cohorts

for launch.

Test UA

You can’t afford not to test! Source: Chartboost

2.No Updates

Content is expensive

• Avoid the treadmill – you will never get ahead of it.• Don’t risk getting caught in

fixes and content, with no time for new features. • Budget enough to enable

ongoing support. Launch is just the beginning (especially for F2P).

3.Not Listening to Your Players

Trust community feedback and player analytics, not just your gut.• Do not assume that your

audience wants the same gaming experience that you do. • Do not treat players solely as

data points. • Be empathetic.

The 3 Most Common Problems

1. Retention is in the Gutter

• If you can’t solve this, you are doomed.•You can only expect

to increase in percentages, not orders of magnitude.

2. Nobody is Downloading the

Game

Featuring is meaning less and less

• Apple recently changed featuring cadence. • It’s good to look at

new OS features, see what you can integrate in a meaningful way.•Mega Brands help,

but…

3. Poor Monetization

Consider other avenues to make money

• Ads• Opt-in (show

the value).• Annuity-based

buying – and now subscriptions.

Try VR Development

• Great if your heart is really in premium gaming. •Mobile VR will be the most

common way for consumers to experience the new medium for the foreseeable future. • True enthusiast market, with

customers who are active fans of the category.

Always look on the Bright Side

Reasons for hope:• HUGE addressable

audience.• Top Grossing charts are

not impossible to crack.• Fallout Shelter• Pokemon GO

• Innovative/unknown creators can hit the jackpot.• Flappy Bird• Crossy Road

Case Study 1 – Sonic Dash Sonic Dash worked.• 200M+ downloads.

• Great example of Gameplay matching Brand Pillars.

• Profitable – based on Ads.• Provided network for cross-promotion.

Cons • Could have monetized better out of the

gate.• New characters are most popular =

limited content scope.

Case Study 2 – Rise of KnightsAttempt to culturalize highly successful title from Japan.Killed in soft launch.• Numbers weren’t backing

out.Attempt to leverage assets of Spiral Knights.• Still effectively a new IP

from a mobile-scale perspective.

Recap

1. The addressable audience is massive, but they are expensive and difficult to reach.

2. Be willing to kill projects that don’t work in soft launch.

3. Deeply understand your audience and their needs. Don’t assume that they want to play the same kind of game that you do.

Big Takeaway

If you haven’t already started in mobile F2P, you should probably start somewhere else.

Thanks!

Find Ethan:• therealgamingunicorn@gmail.com• @ethan_einhorn• www.gamingunicorn.com

Find Chris:• xispolson@gmail.com