tourism trends and prospects: world...

UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department

John G.C. Kester

Chief of Market Intelligence and Promotion Department

[email protected]

World Tourism Organization www.unwto.org

Tourism Trends and Prospects: World Trends UNWTO-PATA Tourism Trends and Research Conference, 29 June – 1 July 2007, Guilin, China


Objective: monitoring short-term evolution of worlwide tourism

Frequency: 3 times a year (January, June, October)

Permanent elements:

• Short term tourism data

• In focus

• WTO Panel of Tourism Experts

• Economic data relevant for tourism

UNWTO World Tourism Barometer


Results 2006


2006 results maintained strength • US$ 735 billion international tourism receipts

• + US$ 58 billion as compared to 2005

International Touristm Receipts, 1990-2006

0

200

400

600

800

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

*

US

$ b

illio

n

Source: World Tourism Organization


US$ 58 million more

Europe

+ 27 billion

(47%)

Africa

+ 3 billion

(4%)

Middle East

+ 0.5 billion

(1%)

Americas

+ 15 billion

(8%)

Asia and

the Pacific + 19 billion

(33%)


Asia and the Pacific has consolidated its

position as 2nd most visited region in the world

International Tourist Arrivals

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*

millio

n

Asia and the Pacific

Americas

Source: World Tourism Organization *Preliminary results


In 2006, Asia and the Pacific equals Americas in receipts

International Tourism Receipts

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*

US

$ b

illio

n


Americas



International Tourism International tourist arrivals and receipts and market share (%)

Americas

ITA: 136 million (16%)

ITR: US$ 153 billion (21%)

Africa



Europe



Middle East


ITR: US$ 27 bn (4%)




International Tourist Arrivals (ITA), 2006*

842 million

International Tourism Receipts (ITR), 2006*

US$ 680 billion


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

95/94 96/95 97/96 98/97 99/98 '00/'99 '01/'00 '02/'01 '03/'02 '04/'03 '05/'04 '06*/'05

% c

ha

ng

e o

ve

r p

rev

iou

s y

ea

r

international tourist arrivals

international tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)

International tourism volume and receipts: growth in receipts almost equal to growth in arrivals in 2006

Asian financial

and economic

crisis:

expenditure

grew slower

11S, SARS, economic

downturn: receipts

more affected


Growth of International Tourism 2006 Asia grew receipts faster than arrivals

4.94.3

7.8

2.1

9.8

6.0

4.54.0

9.4

1.8

10.0

-3.4-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

World Europe Asia and the

Pacific

Americas Africa Middle East

% c

ha

ng

e o

ver

sam

e p

eri

od

of

the

pre

vio

us

yea

r

international tourist arrivals

international tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)




International Tourist Arrivals, 2006*

167 million (+7.8%)

20% of the world share

International Tourism Receipts, 2006*

US$ 153 billion (+9.4%)

21% of the world share

Receipts per arrival, 2006*

US$ 920

vs. US$ 870 for the world

South Asia

9 mn (+11.7%)

US$ 11.5 bn (+14%)

North-East Asia

94 mn (+7.4%)

US$ 75 bn (+11.6%)

South-East Asia

54 mn (+9.3%)

US$ 41 bn (+9.7%) Oceania

10.5 mn (+0.6%)

US$ 26 bn (+1.7%)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

* preliminary results


International Tourist Arrivals, 2006* (million)

49.6

17.515.8

13.910.7

7.6 7.3 6.2 5.5 4.9 4.4 3.6 3.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

China

Mala

ysia

Hong

Kong

(Chin

a)

Thaila

nd

Mac

ao (C

hina)

Singap

ore

Japa

n

Korea

, Rep

ublic

of

Austra

lia (V

F)

Indo

nesia

India

Vietna

m

Taiwan

(pr.

of C

hina)

Mayor destinations in Asia and the Pacific


International Tourism Receipts, 2006* (billion)

33.9

17.8

12.4 11.69.6 8.9 8.5 8.0 7.1

5.3 5.1 4.5 4.43.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

China

Austra

lia

Thaila

nd

Hong

Kong

(Chin

a)

Mala

ysia

India

Japa

n

Mac

ao (C

hina)

(200

5)

Singap

ore

Korea

, Rep

ublic

of

Taiwan

(pr.

of C

hina)

New Z

ealan

d

Indo

nesia

Vietna

m

Mayor destinations in Asia and the Pacific


International tourist arrivals to Asia and the Pacific

0

100

200

300

400

500

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

mill

ion

Actual

Tourism 2020

Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision

200 mn

167 mn

400 mn



Results 2007 January-April


World, International Tourist Arrivals

2006-2007* : monthly evolution

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

jan f eb mar apr may jun jul ago sep oct nov dec

mill

ion

2007*

2006

Arrivals January-April 2007: +6.3%


International Tourism:

Monthly trend, 2005-2007*

International Tourist Arrivals, World

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

chan

ge o

ver

sam

e m

onth

pre

viou

s ye

ar (

% )

2005 2006

*Resultados preliminares


International Tourism:

Monthly trend, 2005-2007*

International Tourist Arrivals, Asia and the Pacific

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

chan

ge o

ver

sam

e m

onth

pre

viou

s ye

ar (

% )

2005 2006

*Resultados preliminares


Asia and the Pacific, International Tourist Arrivals

2006-2007* : monthly evolution

0

5

10

15

20

jan f eb mar apr may jun jul ago sep oct nov dec

mill

ion

2007*

2006

Arrivals January-April 2007: +8.6%


International Tourism, Forecast 2007


5.4

4.1

7.8

5.9

8.9

5.9

4.9

4.3

7.8

2.1

9.8

6.0

4

3

8

2

9

4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


Pacific


% c

ha

ng

e o

ver

sam

e p

eri

od

of

the

pre

vio

us

yea

r

'05/'04

'06/'05

Forecast 2007


*Preliminary results


International Tourism, first results 2007


4.9

4.3

7.8

2.1

9.8

6.0

4

3

8

2

9

4

6.3

5.8

8.6

3.8

8.1 8.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


Pacific


% c

ha

ng

e o

ver

sam

e p

eri

od

of

the

pre

vio

us

yea

r

'06/'05

Forecast 2007

07*/06 Jan-apr


*Preliminary results


World, Growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Longest period of sustained growth for 25 years

2.1 2.2

1.1

3.0

4.7

3.8 3.73.9

4.7

3.8

2.9

1.6

2.4 2.4

3.8 3.7

4.1 4.2

2.7

3.7

4.8

2.5

3.1

4.0

5.3

4.9

5.4

4.9 4.9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06'07*'08*

% c

hang

e ov

er p

revi

ous

year

Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)


Advanced economies, GDP growth However, strength is not coming from advanced economies

0.9

1.8

0.2

2.9

4.7

3.7

3.3

3.6

4.7

3.9

3.1

1.5

2.2

1.4

3.4

2.8 2.9

3.4

2.5

3.5

4

1.2

1.6

1.9

3.3

2.5

3.1

2.52.7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06'07*'08*

% c

hang

e ov

er p

revi

ous

year



Emerging market and developing economies, GDP growth Growth driven by emerging market and developing economies

4.0

2.82.6

3.2

4.9

3.9

4.24.4

4.8

3.6

2.8

1.9

2.6

4.0

4.4

5.0

5.7

5.3

3.0

4.1

6.0

4.3

5.0

6.7

7.77.5

7.97.5

7.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06'07*'08*

% c

hang

e ov

er p

revi

ous

year



W TO Panel o f Tourism Expert s, W o rld

50

75

100

125

150

175

P r ospe c t s

Ev a l ua t i on

WTO World Tourism Barometer Much

better

Better

Equal

Worse

Much

worse


W TO Panel o f T o urism Expert

A sia and t he Pacif ic

50

75

100

125

150

175

P r ospe c t s

Ev a l ua t i on

WTO World Tourism Barometer Much

better

Better

Equal

Worse

Much

worse


Outbound tourism


China surpassed Italy as 6th largest outbound market by expenditure

International Tourism Expenditure

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

*

US

$ b

illio

n

Germany

United States

United Kingdom

France

Japan

China

Italy



Outbound Tourism

International Tourism Expenditure, 2006 (US$ billion) (countries with expenditure > US$ 5 bn)

7572

63

31

2724 23

2119 18 17 17

1412 12 12 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 5

17

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Germ

any

United

Sta

tes

United

King

dom

Franc

e

Japa

nChin

aIta

ly

Canad

a

Russia

n Fed

erat

ion

Korea

, Rep

ublic

of

Belgium

Nethe

rland

sSpa

in

Hong

Kong

(Chin

a)

Norway

Austra

lia

Sweden

Singap

ore

Switzer

land

Austri

a

Taiwan

(pr.

of C

hina)

Mex

icoIn

dia

Denm

ark

Irelan

dBra

zil

Poland

Kuwait


% change over same period of the previous year (local currencies, current prices)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Germ

any

United

Sta

tes

United

King

dom

Franc

e

Japa

nChin

aIta

ly

Canad

a

Russia

n Fed

erat

ion

Korea

, Rep

ublic

of

Belgium

Nethe

rland

sSpa

in

Hong

Kong

(Chin

a)

Norway

Austra

lia

Sweden

Singap

ore

Switzer

land

Austri

a

Taiwan

(pr.

of C

hina)

Mex

icoIn

dia

Denm

ark

Irelan

dBra

zil

Poland

Kuwait

'06/'05 '07/'06 YTD

Outbound Tourism


Established and emerging markets

• Established markets – Far from saturated, but growth potential is comparatively

moderate

– Growth from increased participation and increased

frequency

– Further diversification

– Demographic changes

• Emerging markets – Still huge growth potential

– Many emerging economies have rapid economic growth

producing increasing disposable incomes

– Shift from traditional source markets to alternatives


Changes in consumer profile & behaviour

• (more) mature and experienced, well travelled and better

educated consumers that know what they want and what

they can get

• search for value for money

• more fickle and less loyal

• shift in power from producers to consumers (from a

sellers to a buyers market)

• development accelerated and intensified by: – Increased competition between destinations and operators

in a globalised market

– LCCs have drastically improved accessibility, choice & price

– Internet has increased flexibility and transparency and has

changed only few industries as much as the tourism


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

billi

on

Telev ision

New spapers

Magazines

Internet

Radio

Outdoor

Cinema

Global advertising expenditure by medium

Source: ZenithOptimedia


www.unwto.org => Facts & Figures link


John Kester

Market Intelligence and Promotion Department

email: [email protected]

Thank you very much for your attention!

World Tourism Organization

www.unwto.org

tourism trends and prospects: world...

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