towards a science of cities
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6/21/2013 | The Science of Cities | Colin Harrison, IBM Distinguished Engineer EmeritusTRANSCRIPT
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Towards a Science of Cities
Colin HarrisonIBM Distinguished Engineer Emeritus
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From Engineering Efficiency to a Science of Cities
• 2005-7 Life on an Instrumented Planet
• 2008-10 Integrated, sustainable urban systems
• 2011- Sustainable and resilient urban systems
• 2012- People and urban systemsA Science of Cities
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Measuring, Monitoring, Modeling and Managing
MeteringMeteringSensingSensing
Real Time Data Integration
Real Time Data Integration
Real Time + Historical Data
Real Time + Historical Data
Data Modeling + Analytics
Data Modeling + Analytics
Visualization + Decisions
Visualization + Decisions
Data modeling and analytics to create insights from data to feed decision support and actions
Feed
back
to u
ser a
nd d
ata
sour
ce;
Ince
ntive
s an
d ac
tions
to c
hang
e be
havi
or
Feedback to user and data source;Incentives and actions to change behavior
Comparison of historical data, with newly collected data
Data collection
Improved performance derived from data and models to increase efficiency
and effectiveness
Data Integration
Source: “Instrumenting the Planet”, IBM Journal of Research & Development, March 2009
Life on an Instrumented Planet
• The world’s resources are finite– Energy – cost, GHG emissions– Water – “no cost”, Tragedy of the
Commons– Space – roads take 20% of space
• Technology is cheap and available– Billions of sensors– Pervasive networks– Capacity to store and analyze
• Need to close the loop– Price signals– Social Computing– Behavioural Economics
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MASDAR – A “Carbon Neutral” City*
• New city for 90,000 people in Abu Dhabi, UAE
• Entirely powered by photovoltaic and solar thermal energy
• Personal Rapid Transport system – no private transportation
• Complete “Carbon history” of construction
• A learning experience for the construction of green cities
• A project of the Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company, a subsidiary of Mubadala, the development agency of the sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi
Copyright Foster & Partners*August 2008
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Integrated, sustainable urban systems
Intelligent Transportation Systems
- Integrated Fare Management- Road Usage Charging- Traffic Information
Management- Electric Vehicles
Energy Management- Network Monitoring & Stability- Smart Grid – Demand
Management- Intelligent Building Management- Automated Meter Management
Environmental Management- City-wide Measurements- KPI’s, scorecards- CO2 Management
Smart Integrated Building Management
- Integrated control systems- Property Performance
Management- Building to Grid
Enhanced Public Safety- Intelligent Surveillance- Integrated Emergency Services- “Weatherproofing”- Micro-Weather Forecasting
Water Management- Smart metering- Network instrumentation- Combined Sewage
Overflow
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Source: Economist Intelligence Unit surveySource: Economist Intelligence Unit survey
3636Loss of dataLoss of data
Human errorHuman error
System failureSystem failure
Supply chain disruptionSupply chain disruption
Virus, worm or other malicious attack on IT systemsVirus, worm or other malicious attack on IT systems
Employee malfeasance, e.g. theft or fraudEmployee malfeasance, e.g. theft or fraud
Natural disasters, such as fires or floodsNatural disasters, such as fires or floods
Unplanned downtime of online systemsUnplanned downtime of online systems
TerrorismTerrorism
Power outagePower outage
PandemicPandemic
Application failureApplication failure
Industrial actionIndustrial action
3535
3131
2929
2828
2525
2222
2222
1616
1313
1313
1212
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Natural disasters, human error, cascading failures, and cyber-security attacks highlight the complexity and fragility of our global society, its businesses and infrastructure
Thailand: Flooding 2011 Loss ~$4 B, 550 LivesAuto and HDD are hit hard
Australia: Bushfires, 2009Loss ~$4B, 173 Lives
WW: Cloud Service Outage , 2011Loss ~$5600/min
USA: Cyber-attack, 2011Loss ~$170M, Personal information is stolen
Japan: Quake/Tsunami/ Nuclear, 2011Loss ~$200B, 30K Lives Global supply chain impact
USA: Port Strikes, 2002Loss ~$15B Retail and supply chain disruptions
0
20000
40000
60000
80000100000
120000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Number of incidents reported to US-CERT
(Source: US-CERT)
$200B
1900 2011
Estimated damage caused by reported natural disasters
(Source: EM-DAT)
Types of threats most important for operational
risk management planning
(% respondents)
China: + 37 countries, SARS, 2002-2003Loss ~$15B, 916 LivesMajor workforce disruptions
Iceland: Volcano, 2010 Loss ~$1.7B 10M Passengers affected
Sustainable and Resilient Urban Systems
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People and Urban Systems
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Urban Systems are the composition of services and capabilities derived from the natural and built environments that we model
as a large number of GIS layers
Natural Environment
Environment ResourcesTopography
Roads Buildings
Infrastructure
UtilitiesLand Use
Air Oil
Resources
MineralsWater
Information
Services
Energy Water TransportBuilding Services
Social Systems
People Commerce PolicyCulture
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Urban Systems
Information
Capture
Structure Integrate
Store
Typology Taxonomy
Networks Scaling
Economics
Basic Resources
Natural Environment
Flows & Connections
Built Environment
Integrated Simulations
Engineers Complexity Theorists
Urbanists
Transportation Planners
Transportation Managers
Energy/Utility Managers
Public SafetyManagers
Public HealthManagers
Environmental Managers
Economic DevelopmentLeaders
Urban Systems Analysts
Social Scientists
Civic Groups / Open Data
A Science of Cities
Architects
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Global Systems Science Challenges for Urban Systems1. Formal representation of Urban Systems
• Structures of components• Interactions (P2P, P2S, S2P, S2S)• Inter-dependencies (P<-S, S<-S)
2. Spatial, Temporal, and Domain Integration• “Single View of the Truth”• What real-world problems are we trying to solve?
3. The Need for Flower Collecting• Patterns & Principles to simplify model building
4. Scientific Modeling and Practical Modeling• Understanding and insight• Support for decision-making• Rule of one hand – tipping points
5. Resource consumption & production• Natural and Man-Made resources• By-products, waste• Economic outcomes
6. View of “what is the City trying to do?”• “Real-time” sensing of interactions, resource consumption & production• Match between intention and capabilities• City as a Design Problem – How well does it work?
7. Transformation of how the city works• Transition from Industrial Age to Information Age• Planning for One
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Closing thoughts…the City as a Design Problem
• Cities are and always have been information processing systems.
• Cities today are both the source and the solution of many of our global society’s challenges.
• Given the increasingly rich pathways between and among urban systems and people for digital information….what would Steve do?
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Thanks for your attention!