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The Toyota recall crisis: Predicting corporate reputation from the media David Geddes, Ph.D. David Fan, Ph.D. Institute for Public Relations 9 th Summit on Measurement

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Page 1: Toyota recall crisis: predicting corporate reputation from the news media

The Toyota recall crisis:Predicting corporate reputation from the mediaDavid Geddes, Ph.D.David Fan, Ph.D.

Institute for Public Relations 9th Summit on Measurement

Page 2: Toyota recall crisis: predicting corporate reputation from the news media

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•Prediction and forecasting

•Priorities

•Modeling case study

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Prediction and forecasting

© New York Times

Page 4: Toyota recall crisis: predicting corporate reputation from the news media

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The Toyota recall crisis

2007 – 2008 Early problem indicationsSept. 10, 2009 Release of 911 crash call audioSept. 29, 2009 3.9 M vehicles recalled in U.S.Late Jan.- Feb. 2.3 M vehicles recalled in U.S.

Sales suspended for eight modelsPlants closedRecall expanded to Europe and ChinaCEO apologizes, testifies

March 2010 Congressional hearingsDoT and NHTSA scrutiny

Page 5: Toyota recall crisis: predicting corporate reputation from the news media

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InfoTrend® model basic structure

NeutralPositive Negative

K3

K4

K2

K1

Negative message pressure

Positive message pressure

Page 6: Toyota recall crisis: predicting corporate reputation from the news media

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Minimal model structure before adaptation for Toyota

Don’t try this at home

I

II

III

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Variables

•Dependant variable▫YouGov BrandIndex “impression”

•Predictor variables (113 weeks 1/1/09 – 3/31/11)▫24 major U.S. newspapers▫24 matched online newspaper sites▫25 top blogs (mostly auto)▫25 top forums (mostly auto)▫AP news wire

•Automated sentiment scoring

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Results

AP newswire

Blog

Online news

Newspaper

Forum

All media

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90

0.66

0.75

0.77

0.79

0.82

0.84Model R-squared (unweighted data)

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All mediaR2 = 0.84

Survey− Model

Positive documents

Negative documents

Positive opinion

Neutral opinion

Negative opinion

Page 10: Toyota recall crisis: predicting corporate reputation from the news media

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BlogsR2 = 0.75

Survey− Model

Positive blogs

Negative blogs

Positive opinion

Neutral opinion

Negative opinion

Page 11: Toyota recall crisis: predicting corporate reputation from the news media

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Results

•Broad media sample

•Automated sentiment analysis (untrained)

•Sentiment does matter

•Information half-life ≈ zero

Page 12: Toyota recall crisis: predicting corporate reputation from the news media

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Results

Blog

Forum

Online newspaper

All except AP

Newspaper

AP newswire

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.3

3.7

Positive/negative persuasibility ratio

Page 13: Toyota recall crisis: predicting corporate reputation from the news media

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Further directions

•Message-level drivers

•Media channel influence

•Positive/negative impact

•General reputation and brand model

•Other marketing mix elements

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Priorities1. Common measurement framework2. Standard metrics3. Better models4. Open the box5. Empiricism6. Education and training7. Research ethics8. Break down barriers9. ROI

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Thank you

Questions?


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